Applications of Judd–Ofelt theory to praseodymium and samarium ions in phosphate glass

The Judd–Ofelt (J–O) theory has had a remarkable success in the characterization of radiative transitions in lanthanide doped solids. The purpose of this paper is to review the applications of the J–O theory to the Pr³⁺ and Sm³⁺ ions and to use this system as an occasion to appraise its validity and to clarify its limits. In this paper we dwell at length on the absorption and luminescence measurements of two glass samples doped with Pr³⁺ and Sm³⁺, because they are basic for the J–O treatment. The results obtained for the J–O theory application to phosphate glasses doped with Pr³⁺ and Sm³⁺ present two undesirable outcomes: (1) a positive value of parameter Ω₂ and (2) large uncertainties with which the three Judd–Ofelt parameters were obtained. The validity of the J–O theory for intensity analysis was also tested for Sm³⁺ doped in phosphate glass. The resulting Ω₂ was much lower than Ω₄. The first set parameters were obtained using all the levels for which f_exp. was available. The second set parameter values were evaluated without the ⁶F_1/2 and ⁶H_15/2 levels. The Ω_2,4,6 values given in these two sets clearly suggest that particular care should be taken while evaluating the Judd–Ofelt parameters as well as when these parameters are compared to other systems due to their strong dependence on the nature of levels.     

Calcium‐phosphate and parathyroid intradialytic profiles: A potential aid for tailoring the dialysate calcium content of patients on different hemodialysis schedules

Severe hyperparathyroidism is a challenge on hemodialysis. The definition of dialysate calcium (Ca) is a pending issue with renewed importance in cases of individualized dialysis schedules and of portable home dialysis machines with low‐flow dialysate. Direct measurement of calcium mass transfer is complex and is imprecisely reflected by differences in start‐to‐end of dialysis Ca levels. The study was performed in a dialysis unit dedicated to home hemodialysis and to critical patients with wide use of daily and tailored schedules. The Ca‐phosphate (P)‐parathyroid hormone (PTH) profile includes creatinine, urea, total and ionized Ca, albumin, sodium, potassium, P, PTH levels at start, mid, and end of dialysis. “Severe” secondary hyperparathyroidism was defined as PTH > 300 pg/mL for ≥3 months. Four schedules were tested: conventional dialysis (polysulfone dialyzer 1.8–2.1 m²), with dialysate Ca 1.5 or 1.75 mmol/L, NxStage (Ca 1.5 mmol/L), and NxStage plus intradialytic Ca infusion. Dosages of vitamin D, calcium, phosphate binders, and Ca mimetic agents were adjusted monthly. Eighty Ca‐P‐PTH profiles were collected in 12 patients. Serum phosphate was efficiently reduced by all techniques. No differences in start‐to‐end PTH and Ca levels on dialysis were observed in patients with PTH levels < 300 pg/mL. Conversely, Ca levels in “severe” secondary hyperparathyroid patients significantly increased and PTH decreased during dialysis on all schedules except on Nxstage (P < 0.05). Our data support the need for tailored dialysate Ca content, even on “low‐flow” daily home dialysis, in “severe” secondary hyperparathyroid patients in order to increase the therapeutic potentials of the new dialysis techniques.     

Risk, risk aversion and the optimal time to produce

This paper studies the order-fulfillment process of a supplier producing a customized capital good. When they decide at what time to begin production, suppliers in these industries typically face the following dilemma. On the one hand, their customers expect them to be responsive and the time that they are prepared to wait for the product is much shorter than the time needed to produce and deliver it. On the other hand, it is risky for the suppliers to start production before the customers confirm their orders due to inventory holding costs and the possibility of order cancellation. We offer a model to help understand this dilemma and investigate the comparative statics effects of lead time, lead time uncertainty and the risk aversion of the supplier. Relative to existing work, our model has two novel components: demand distribution updating and the supplier's risk attitude. Previous empirical studies reveal that the supplier is very conservative when commencing the order fulfillment. The studies attribute this to high holding and cancellation costs relative to the delay cost. Our model provides two alternative explanations. First, other than costs, when the supplier starts to produce depends also on how the distribution of the demand arrival time is updated as time progresses. Second, although the effect of increasing risk aversion of the supplier on the optimal time to produce is ambiguous, we show that it plays a major role in the decision and thus it alone may have caused the supplier to be conservative.     

The social innovation potential of ICT-enabled citizen observatories to increase eParticipation in local flood risk management

We live in the age of Big Data, yet many areas of environmental management are still suffering from a lack of relevant data, information and knowledge that impedes sound decision making in the face of change and increasing challenges. A highly relevant phenomenon is therefore the so-called citizen observatories whereby the observations of ordinary citizens, and not just those of professionals and scientists, are included in earth observation and environmental management. Advanced citizen observatories can enable a two-way communication paradigm between citizens and decision makers, potentially resulting in profound changes to local environmental management processes and, as such, in social innovation processes and outcomes. This paper analyses the social innovation potential of such ICT-enabled citizen observatories to increase eParticipation in local flood risk management. The findings from empirical research in two case study locations highlight the divergent roles that authorities conceive for citizens and the role(s) that citizens in practice assign to themselves. Moreover, given the institutional structures identified in these cases and the obligation of authorities to be accountable for their decisions, citizen observatories do not automatically imply that citizens will have a higher level of participation in flood risk management, nor that communication between stakeholders improves.     

Relative fatality risk curve to describe the effect of change in the impact speed on fatality risk of pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle

Models describing the relation between impact speed and fatality risk for pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle have frequently been used by practitioners and scientists in applying an S curve to visualize the importance of speed for the chance of survival. Recent studies have suggested that these risk curves are biased and do not give representative risk values. These studies present new fatality risk curves that show much lower risks of fatality than before, which has caused confusion and misconceptions about how these new curves should be interpreted, and how this should affect speed management policy.     

Role of macropore size in the mechanical properties and in vitro degradation of porous calcium phosphate cements

The goal of the present study was to investigate the effect of macropore size on the compressive strength and in vitro degradation of porous calcium phosphate cements (CPCs). For this purpose, a series of porous CPCs with three different macropore sizes (200-300 μm, 300-450 μm and 450-600 μm) and comparable porosity were prepared by salting-out method, and the study of in vitro degradation behavior was carried out under a constant fluid flow environment. The results showed that the increase in macropore size of CPCs with invariant porosity resulted in a decrease in the compressive strength but an increase in the degradation rate of CPCs significantly, suggesting the possibility that the degradation rate and compressive strength of biomaterials can be regulated by varying the macropore size while maintaining the porosity unchanged.     

Errors and violations in relation to motorcyclists' crash risk

This study was conducted to: (a) develop a questionnaire that reliably measures the behaviour of motorcyclists and (b) test which types of behaviour predict motorcyclists' crash risk. A Motorcycle Rider Behaviour Questionnaire (MRBQ), consisting of 43 items to measure the self-reported frequency of specific riding behaviours, was developed and administered to a sample of motorcyclists (N=8666). Principal components analysis revealed a 5-factor solution (traffic errors, control errors, speed violations, performance of stunts and use of safety equipment). Generalised linear modelling showed that, while controlling for the effects of age, experience and annual mileage, traffic errors were the main predictors of crash risk. For crashes in which respondents accepted some degree of blame, control errors and speed violations were also significant predictors of crash risk. Implications of the findings are discussed in relation to deciding which countermeasures may be most effective at reducing motorcycle casualty rates.     

Analysing risk in sourcing design and manufacture of components and sub-systems to emerging markets

This paper presents an emerging market sourcing risk assessment and management model for sourcing components and sub-systems to emerging markets. The model was developed, tested and implemented by a US automotive manufacturer but the principles and tool discussed here are broadly applicable. We gathered a comprehensive list of risk factors through an intensive literature review and subject matter expert (SME) interviews. We used a process failure mode effect analysis (PFMEA) structure to characterize the risks and developed a simulation model to quantify risk factors in terms of dollars so that an OEM can evaluate risk mitigation strategies. The spreadsheet simulation ranks causes of failures and failure modes and calculates total risk in terms of dollars. In addition to analysing risk, the model evaluates the impact of different inventory levels on the costs of delays in the supply chain. The model can also be used to evaluate and select suppliers that offer minimum risk. We demonstrate the model with a real-world case study involving a North American auto company considering sourcing a component to an emerging market.     

An exploratory study of risk aversion in supply chain dynamics via human experiment and agent-based simulation

The literature on the impact of risk aversion on supply chains (SCs) is relatively limited and, in particular, there is a dearth of theory and a lack of empirical evidence concerning: (1) the impact of individual risk aversion on the generation and dynamics of the order policy (e.g. order patterns and inventory holding costs); (2) the impact of several combinations of risk-averse members in each stage of a multi-echelon SC. We explore these gaps through a multi-method approach (i.e. human experiments and agent-based simulation), thus using both empirical and simulated data. Specifically, based on results from a human experiment, we develop the conjecture that risk aversion is positively correlated to the desired stock level and consequently to the safety stock factor of inventory order policies. Building on this finding, we perform a simulation study to infer the impact of individual risk aversion in a multi-echelon SC. Results show that alternative compositions of the SC in terms of risk aversion levels of the echelons significantly influence inventory holdings and SC dynamics. The study implies that a company facing problems of high inventory days-on-hand should favour low-risk aversion managers, as instrumental to lowering stock and improving net working capital.     

白洋淀表层沉积物中的多卤代芳烃及其潜在风险

采用GC-MS/MS技术对45个白洋淀表层沉积物(0~5 cm)样品中的三类(多溴联苯、多溴联苯醚和多氯联苯)多卤代芳烃(PHAHs)进行分析。实验发现多氯联苯(PCBs)是优势污染物(20.57 ng.g-1.dw),PCB28,52,66,138,156和170是被检出的主要同族体;多溴联苯(PBBs)和多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)在沉积物中的检出浓度相对较低(0.47 ng.g-1.dw和1.78 ng.g-1.dw),PBDE28和PBDE47是最具支配地位的PBDE同族体,分别占PBDEs总量的16%和21%。实验结果与国内外最近的文献报道值相比较,显示这三类PHAHs在沉积物中的浓度处于低污染水平,引起的潜在风险也相对较低。     

Finance, Policy and Industrial Dynamics—The Rise of Co-productions in the Film Industry

This paper explores the growing phenomenon of international co-productions in the film industry. We argue that the rise of co-productions is part of a wider narrative of financial and institutional innovation shaping industrial organization in the film industry. This narrative centres on film finance as a central risk distribution mechanism, and discusses how changes in film support policy, increased tax competition, the search for finance and an abundance of inflowing capital are increasingly driving industrial dynamics in the film industry.     

Getting beyond ‘grin and bear it’ in the practice of risk management

Risk perception researchers frequently notice major discrepancies between expert judgment and lay opinion concerning the identity of ‘large’ risks. These discrepancies are particularly disconcerting because they lead to a significant misallocation of scarce resources devoted to public risk management. Yet, democratic decision-making also appeals to many risk perception researchers, and some see such little prospect for a solution thaty they seem close to surrendering to decision-making based on lay risk perception. This article argues that such a ‘grin and bear it’ strategy is also unsatisfactory; that risk perceptions are unstable grounds for decision-making; that expert risk assessment and lay risk perception differ by design rather than accident; that risk experts' search for ‘virtuous lawmakers’ who would make public decisions for the greatest public good is a vain one; that the dissonance risk perception researchers now observe will likely get worse in the new information age; and that risk perception researchers need to return to first principles to find solutions to these dilemmas. In particular, the gap between expert judgment and lay perception will close only when non-experts are permitted and expected to make their own risk management decisions, so far as that is possible, while bearing full responsibility for their choices.     

An approach for using risk assessment in risk-informed decisions on plant-specific changes to the licensing basis

This paper discusses an acceptable approach that the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff has proposed for using Probabilistic Risk Assessment in making decisions on changes to the licensing basis of a nuclear power plant. First, the overall philosophy of risk-informed decision-making, and the process framework are described. The philosophy is encapsulated in five principles, one of which states that, if the proposed change leads to an increase in core damage frequency or risk, the increases must be small and consistent with the intent of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Safety Goal Policy Statement. The second part of the paper discusses the use of PRA to demonstrate that this principle has been met. The discussion focuses on the acceptance guidelines, and on comparison of the PRA results with those guidelines. The difficulties that arise because of limitations in scope and analytical uncertainties are discussed and approaches to accommodate these difficulties in the decision-making are described.     

Traffic accident statistics and risk perceptions in Japan and the United States

Several recent studies have concluded that Japan and the US have different risk cultures. This study examines the actual risk environments faced by citizens in the two countries, in the domain of traffic safety, as a possible source of differences in risk perceptions. The study contrasts traffic-accident risks from several points of view (e.g. car drivers, motorcyclists, bicyclists and pedestrians) and risk statistics (e.g. death rates, relative fatality risks, and accident lethality). Results clarify the traffic risks in the two countries and confirm their potential for explaining cross-national differences in risk perceptions.     

Construction and evaluation of thoracic injury risk curves for a finite element human body model in frontal car crashes

There is a need to improve the protection to the thorax of occupants in frontal car crashes. Finite element human body models are a more detailed representation of humans than anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs). On the other hand, there is no clear consensus on the injury criteria and the thresholds to use with finite element human body models to predict rib fractures. The objective of this study was to establish a set of injury risk curves to predict rib fractures using a modified Total HUman Model for Safety (THUMS). Injury criteria at the global, structural and material levels were computed with a modified THUMS in matched Post Mortem Human Subjects (PMHSs) tests. Finally, the quality of each injury risk curve was determined. For the included PMHS tests and the modified THUMS, DcTHOR and shear stress were the criteria at the global and material levels that reached an acceptable quality. The injury risk curves at the structural level did not reach an acceptable quality.     

On the use of risk acceptance criteria in the offshore oil and gas industry

Risk acceptance criteria, as upper limits of acceptable risks, have been used for offshore activities on the Norwegian Continental Shelf for more than 20 years. The common thinking has been that risk analyses and assessments cannot be conducted in a meaningful way without the use of such criteria. The ALARP principle also applies, but the risk acceptance criteria have played a more active role in the assessment processes than seen for example in the UK. Recently there has, however, been a discussion about the suitability of risk acceptance criteria to assess and control risks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this discussion by presenting and discussing a risk analysis regime that is not based on the use of risk acceptance criteria at all. We believe that we can do better if cost-effectiveness (in a wide sense) is the ruling thinking rather than adoption of pre-defined risk acceptance limits. This means a closer resemblance with the ALARP principle as adopted in the UK and other countries, but is not a direct application of this practice. Also the building blocks of the common way of applying the ALARP principle are reviewed. The Norwegian offshore oil and gas industry is the starting point, but the discussion is to large extent general.     

A combined fuzzy DEMATEL and cloud model approach for risk assessment in process industries to improve system reliability

Decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) analysis is an effective and comprehensive method for identifying accident factors and converting the relationships among them into a visual structural model. Traditionally, the mean value method is adopted to summarize the initial direct-relation matrix, but it ignores the errors caused by differences in expert knowledge. In addition, a single qualitative risk assessment may not be sufficiently comprehensive and persuasive. The qualitative risk assessment results may not play a complete role in helping industrial plants carry out safety management. Therefore, this study proposes a quantitative risk assessment model based on the cloud model (CM) called the fuzzy DEMATEL-CM. An assessment index model is established by identifying the hazards associated with a converter steelmaking system. Subsequently, fuzzy DEMATEL analysis is applied to determine the relationships among the assessment indices and calculate their weights. Then, the CM is utilized to calculate the risk levels of the assessment indices and determine the comprehensive risk level. Finally, a case study is introduced to verify the practicability and validity of this model, and it is observed that the model has a certain superiority in solving uncertain problems. The quantitative risk assessment results are helpful for preventing accidents to improve the reliability of converter steelmaking plants.     

The fatality and injury risk of light truck impacts with pedestrians in the United States

In the United States, passenger vehicles are shifting from a fleet populated primarily by cars to a fleet dominated by light trucks and vans (LTVs). Because light trucks are heavier, stiffer, and geometrically more blunt than passenger cars, they pose a dramatically different type of threat to pedestrians. This paper investigates the effect of striking vehicle type on pedestrian fatalities and injuries. The analysis incorporates three major sources of data, the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), the General Estimates System (GES), and the Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS). The paper presents and compares pedestrian impact risk factors for sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, vans, and cars as developed from analyses of US accident statistics. Pedestrians are found to have a two to three times greater likelihood of dying when struck by an LTV than when struck by a car. Examination of pedestrian injury distributions reveals that, given an impact speed, the probability of serious head and thoracic injury is substantially greater when the striking vehicle is an LTV rather than a car.