A Decision Tool for Allocating the Waters of the Jordan River Basin between all Riparian Parties

Shared water resources are strong sources of conflict in the Jordan River basin shared by Israel, Jordan, Palestine, Syria and Lebanon. The control and allocation of water has been explicitly made a part of the ongoing peace negotiations. This article calls for the application of international water law in the resolution of water disputes in the negotiating process. The challenging task for negotiators is to translate water law principles into operating rules and procedures for the equitable apportionment of waters from shared water resources. The negotiators need a decision tool based upon objective criteria or standards to reach equitable entitlements to shared water resources by all parties. This paper introduces a multi-criteria decision tool as a possible approach to the problem of allocating the waters of the Jordan River between all riparian parties. The prime principle of the criteria is equitable allocation factors identified by water law. A general mathematical model was derived in which the proportional entitlements of the Jordan River basin waters were determined to the five riparians. It is hoped that, waternegotiators review this approach.     

Estimating the Potential Impacts of Irrigation Water Pricing Using Multicriteria Decision Making Modelling. An Application to Northern Greece

A great challenge of the current European water policy is the implementation of volumetric water pricing in the agricultural sector, especially of Mediterranean countries, where irrigation is a necessary precondition of agricultural production and farmers’ income, but also the major consumer of water. The overall aim of the present work is to develop a methodology that will be suitable for the estimation of the potential environmental, economic and social impacts of irrigation water pricing. For this purpose, Multi-Attribute Utility Theory is implemented in order to simulate agricultural decision making at various water pricing scenarios. Water demand functions are then elicited, by means of the best crop and water allocation (farmers’ decisions) in each scenario. The European Water Framework Directive recommends that any issue concerning water resources management (including water pricing policies) should be developed at the river basin level. In this framework, a cluster analysis is performed to partition the river basin area (namely, Loudias River Basin, located in Northern Greece) into a small number of homogeneous sub-regions. The differential impact of water pricing in each region is then analyzed, and finally, an average water demand function is formulated for the whole river basin.     

莱茵河流域水环境管理的经验对长江中下游综合治理的启

以欧洲莱茵河流域近 5 0年的综合治理经验 ,尤其是近 10年相继开展的一系列流域管理行动计划的成果 ,介绍莱茵河从传统的单一流域水管理向以生存质量可持续发展为目标的可持续综合管理转变过程 ,即流域有关国家跨国协调的经验 ,流域内各国为共同治理莱茵河签署的控制化学污染公约、控制氯化物污染公约、防治热污染公约、2 0 0 0年行动计划、洪水管理行动计划等一系列协定 ,由此展望莱茵河流域可持续管理的未来。建议我国在长江三角洲经济发达地区尽快采用严格的欧洲环境管理标准 ,严密监测 ,强化监督 ,依法治理。     

DSS Application to the Development of Water Management Strategies in Ribeiras do Algarve River Basin

Within the Project – “Developing Strategies for Regulating and Managing Water Resources and Demand in Water Deficient Regions (WSM)” funded by the EU in fifth Research Framework Program, the Ribeiras do Algarve River Basin was chosen as a case study to develop a DSS for planning purposes. Located in the southern stretch of the Portuguese territory, crucial conflicts do exist between tourist and agricultural water uses within the river basin. Additionally, there are important deficiencies in urban secondary water supply. Also inadequate irrigation methods and poor quality of water existing in some areas urge the implementation of management measures. Different ways to improve the water management situation were analysed: (a) structural options, (b) demand management options and (c) socio-economic measures. These options were analysed using a range of combinations of extreme demand and availability scenarios and ranked based on indicators reflecting the perception of the local stakeholders towards economic development and social and environmental sustainability. On a second phase, the formulation of strategies using the available options was addressed and two different strategies, resulting from a tentative timeframe of water management options combination, were applied aiming to achieve goals defined with regional stakeholders, namely: (a) on a first stage, the optimization of the domestic and irrigation water demand coverage and aquifer’s groundwater exploitation use ratio; (b) on a second stage, the determination of the water pricing increase necessary to achieve economical sustainability, aiming at cost recovery goals in accordance with the Water Framework Directive compliance.     

Application of dynamic contributing area for modelling the hydrologic response of the Assiniboine River Basin to a changing climate

The Prairie landscape consists of numerous pothole depressions which produce complex fill-and-spill runoff generation processes that result in intermittent hydrologic connectivity and dynamic contributing areas (DCA). We investigated the effect of including DCA in the modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and its implication on future streamflow projection for the pothole dominated Assiniboine River Basin (ARB). The fill-and-spill processes that lead to DCA were captured using a physically-based approach, with a volumetric threshold to reduce the computational demand. Despite the challenges in accurately simulating prairie pothole hydrology, both in terms of timing and volume of runoff, the modified approach improved streamflow modelling performance, and reduced model uncertainty. Further, we evaluated the effects of representing DCA on projecting future streamflow by using eight statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs, forced with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. End of century projections indicate increases in annual precipitation and temperature across the ARB, with decreasing summer precipitation relative to the 1976–2005 baseline period. Compared to the standard SWAT setup that does not allow for DCA, the modified model was found to be more responsive to climatic change with relatively larger projected increases in seasonal and annual flows at the majority of evaluated stations. This advance in DCA modelling will facilitate longer-term large basin-scale simulations that are more representative for the Prairie region.     

Riparian vegetation and channel change in response to river regulation: a comparative study of regulated and unregulated streams in the Green River Basin,USA

The effects of river damming on geomorphic processes and riparian vegetation were evaluated through field studies along the regulated Green River and the free‐flowing Yampa River in northwestern Colorado, USA. GIS analysis of historical photographs, hydrologic and sediment records, and measurement of channel planform indicate that fluvial processes and riparian vegetation of the two meandering stream reaches examined were similar prior to regulation which began in 1962. Riparian plant species composition and canopy coverage were measured during 1994 in 36, 0.01 ha plots along each the Green River in Browns Park and the Yampa River in Deerlodge Park. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) of the vegetation data indicates distinctive vegetation differences between Browns Park and Deerlodge Park. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) indicates that plant community composition is controlled largely by fluvial processes at Deerlodge Park, but that soil chemical rather than flow related factors play a more important role in structuring plant communities in Browns Park. Vegetation patterns reflect a dichotomy in moisture conditions across the floodplain on the Green River in Browns Park: marshes with anaerobic soils supporting wetland species (Salix exigua, Eleocharis palustris, Schoenoplectus pungens, and Juncus nodosus) and terraces having xeric soil conditions and supporting communities dominated by desert species (Seriphidium tridentatum, Sarcobatus vermiculatus, and Sporobolus airoides). In contrast, vegetation along the Yampa River is characterized by a continuum of species distributed along a gradual environmental gradient from the active channel (ruderal species such as Xanthium struminarium and early successional species such as S. exigua, Populus deltoides subsp. wislizenii, and Tamarix ramossissima) to high floodplain surfaces characterized by Populus forests and meadow communities. GIS analyses indicate that the channel form at Browns Park has undergone a complex series of morphologic changes since regulation began, while the channel at Deerlodge Park has remained in a state of relative quasi‐equilibrium with discharge and sediment regimes. The Green River has undergone three stages of channel change which have involved the transformation of the historically deep, meandering Green River to a shallow, braided channel over the 37 years since construction of Flaming Gorge Dam. The probable long‐term effects of channel and hydrologic changes at Browns Park include the eventual replacement of Populus‐dominated riparian forest by drought tolerant desert shrublands, and the enlargement of in‐channel fluvial marshes. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

东湾流域BTOPMC模型和新安江模型的应用比较

对BTOPMC模型的原理、结构以及参数进行了详细介绍,利用东湾流域DEM资料、土地覆盖资料、土壤组成资料、NDVI数据、月平均气候资料及1982—2000年的实测水文资料,对BTOPMC模型与新安江模型的模拟性能进行了比较研究。结果表明,新安江模型整体的模拟精度较BTOPMC模型的模拟精度要高。     

沩水流域中上游径流对不透水面扩张的响应

为研究径流对不透水面扩张的响应,通过建立沩水流域中上游HSPF模型,构建研究区2000-2015年不透水面扩张情景,探究该区域径流对不透水面扩张的响应。结果表明:HSPF模型月流量模拟精度较高,在本研究区有良好的适用性;在2000-2015年研究区不透水面扩张情景下,研究区不透水面扩张会引起年径流深小幅增长,不透水面扩张对枯水期径流深的影响大于对汛期径流深的影响,且不透水面扩张对枯水年径流深的影响最大,平水年次之,丰水年最小;相较于整个研究区,主城区与研究区不透水面扩张对径流深的影响在趋势上是一致的,但是主城区的影响程度比研究区大。     

额尔齐斯河流域1990—2010年湿地遥感监测分析

应用遥感和地理信息系统等技术手段,基于额尔齐斯河流域1990年、2000年、2010年的LandsatTM影像和2005年、2008年的CBERS-02影像,结合多层环境要素数据库、野外定点调查数据等,通过人机交互式解译构建了上述5年额尔齐斯河流域湿地空间数据库。分析了湿地空间数据,总结出额尔齐斯河流域1990—2010年的湿地变化特征。结果表明:天然湿地面积呈波动变化,总体上2010年天然湿地面积大于1990年的面积,增加面积主要来源于湖泊和沼泽及沼泽化草地,而河谷林及滩地的面积呈逐年减小的趋势;人工湿地面积增加较显著,主要因为水浇地面积大幅增加,而水库、坑塘面积呈波动变化,总体上也呈增加趋势。     

南美洲巴拉那河流域水文气象要素演变特征及径流变化的气候响应

基于1951-2014年巴拉那河流域月尺度降水、气温、径流3个要素的观测数据,运用线性回归与MannKendall方法分析了序列的趋势性,运用小波方法分析了序列多时间尺度特征及气象因子与水文要素的内在联系。结果表明:在研究时段内,3个要素均有不同程度的增大趋势,气温与径流量显著上升,降水量不显著上升;在月尺度特征方面,3个要素均存在12个月左右的主周期,同时不同要素存在不同的次周期,其中气温存在微弱的6个月左右的次周期,月均降水量无明显次周期,径流量具有约36个月、48个月、64个月、100个月的次周期;在年尺度特征方面,3个要素均无明显主周期存在,降水量存在约3、4、8、10 a的次周期,气温无明显连续次周期,径流量的次周期特征与降水相似;交叉小波凝聚谱显示,巴拉那河流域月降水量的变化对径流量的影响远大于月均气温变化对其的影响;结合趋势性分析与小波分析可以清晰地了解流域内水文气象要素的变化规律与内在联系。     

应用模糊模式识别模型计算分析辽河中下游水安全状况

采用陈守煜模糊模式识别模型对辽河流域水安全状况进行了计算与分析。结果表明,从1995至2005,辽河流域总体水安全状况均在较不安全程度向较安全程度过渡,尤其是2005年水安全级别特征值都处于2~3级之间,其中沈阳、鞍山、抚顺、本溪和辽阳水安全级别值越来越大,变化趋势较好,辽阳水安全程度提升较快,但是鞍山和抚顺水安全程度较低,属于较不安全区。大石桥2000年水安全级别特征值为2.69591,比1995年和2005年稍低一些,但还是较安全的。盘锦2005年水安全级别值特征值为2.9505,比1995年和2000年稍低一些,但一直是较安全的。1995年和2000年铁岭水安全级别值特征值在1.5左右,水安全状况较差,但是近年来水安全级别特征值都有所上升,水安全程度有所提升。最后从压力-状态-响应框架分析了水安全的变化原因。     

海河流域1961年-2010年极端气温与降水变化趋势分析

以海河流域30个气象基准站1956年-2010年气温和降水日值资料为基础,选取12个表征极端气候变化指标,分析了该流域极端气温与降水的变化趋势。结果表明:海河流域极端高温的强度、频度和持续时间均有较强的增加趋势;极端低温的强度、频度显著降低,反映出流域整体增温的气候变化背景;流域短历时极端降水强度有增大趋势,年极端降水的发生频次降低,连续湿日表现出一定的减少趋势,而连续干日在近几十年来有一定的增加趋势,区域呈现弱干化趋势。从年代际变化特征看,20世纪90年代以来,年极端高温事件和短历时强降水事件发生趋于频繁,而长持续性降水事件的降水量减少。海河流域整体的暖干趋势以及降水集中的趋势,将对农业生产、水资源开发利用造成不利影响,同时,短历时极端强降水事件的增加可能加剧局地的山洪灾害和城市内涝的风险。     

降水和人类活动对三岔河上游径流量变化的贡献

以黔中水利枢纽工程水源区——三岔河上游为研究对象,采用累积距平法分析了该流域1990-2016年降水量和径流量的变化趋势,揭示了降水量变化过程中存在2001和2013年两个突变点,而径流量变化过程中只存在2001年1个突变点。运用累积量斜率变化率比较法,定量估算不同时期降水和人类活动对三岔河上游径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:以1990-2001年作为基准期,2002-2013年降水和人类活动对径流量减小的贡献率分别为59. 37%和40. 63%; 2014-2016年降水和人类活动对径流量减小的贡献率分别为50. 82%和49. 18%。表明降水是三岔河上游径流量变化的主要影响因素,而人类活动对径流量变化的影响在增加。     

可公度法在嫩江流域旱涝灾害预测中的应用

结合嫩江江桥断面年降水量资料,采用三元、四元和五元可公度式对大旱年和大涝年进行了预测,同时利用可公度网络结构图对嫩江流域水文情势的发展趋势进行了分析。结果表明:2012年和2025年前后嫩江流域可能发生大旱灾害,2024年、2028年和2038年前后可能发生大涝灾害;2010—2016年为嫩江流域丰水多发时段,以平水年和丰水年为主;2016—2025年为枯水和丰水多发时段的重叠时段,这一时段内水文情势发生骤变的可能性比较大;2025—2031年为枯水多发时段,以枯水年和平水年为主。     

"黄河流域水资源演变规律与二元演化模型"研究成果简介

简要介绍了在国家重点基础研究发展规划“973”项目“黄河流域水资源演变规律与可再生性维持机理”第二课题(G1999043602)中取得的三项主要成果:(1)流域水资源二元演化模型;(2)黄河流域水资源全口径层次化动态评价;(3)人类活动影响下的黄河流域水资源演化规律。首先,将分布式流域水文模型(WEP-L)和集总式水资源调配模型(WARM)相耦合,建立了流域水资源二元演化模型。然后,在界定“广义水资源”与“狭义水资源”概念的基础上,提出了水资源全口径层次化动态评价方法,并给出了黄河流域评价成果。最后,通过比较2000年现状下垫面条件下与历史系列条件下的评价结果,以及考虑与不考虑人工取用水条件下的模拟结果,初步发现:(1)黄河流域在强烈的人类活动影响下,水资源量及其构成均发生了显著变化,地表水资源量衰减,而不重复地下水量增加;(2)在狭义水资源量衰减的同时,伴随着有效蒸散即降水有效利用的增加,流域广义水资源量有一定幅度增加。研究成果对客观评价水土保持生态建设、农田基本建设等土地利用变化的水文水资源效应,对黄河的治理规划和水安全战略具有重要参考应用价值。