河南省旱涝态势时空特征分析

利用河南省15个气象站点1961—2014年的逐月平均气温、日照时数及降水资料,基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),采用趋势拟合、概率统计、小波分析等方法,分析河南省旱涝灾害时空变化特征。研究结果表明:(1)降水量呈明显减小趋势,近54 a降水量减小率为1.2 mm/a;蒸发量呈增大趋势,多年平均增长率为0.7 mm/a;(2)旱灾发生频率在空间分布上呈现东高西低、北高南低的趋势,而洪涝总体呈现东低西高、北低南高的趋势;(3)河南省整体上呈干旱加剧、洪涝减缓的趋势,安阳、新乡地区干旱加剧趋势最为明显,而西华地区有干旱缓解的趋势;(4)年尺度SPEI的主周期为10 a。     

科学应对全球气候变暖环境下的水旱灾害

简要分析了全球气候变暖的形势、造成原因和加大加重水旱灾害的表现;指出这一大环境将长期存在;就科学防治和减轻水旱灾害,提出了四项建议。     

重大水旱灾害对粮食价格的影响研究

本文根据近500年来发生的重大水旱灾害年份的有关资料，分析研究了重大水平灾害导致粮食变动的情况，与水平灾害程度、救济方法、交通运输及抗灾能力等有密切关系。     

Sustainable Catchment Managing in a Climate Changing World: New Integrative Modalities for Connecting Policy Makers,Scientists and Other Stakeholders

This paper characterises some of the main issues confronting water-catchment managing in a climate-changing world and addresses wide-spread concerns about the lack of connectivity between science, policy making and implementation. The paper’s arguments are ‘framed’ within a paradigm of systemic and adaptive governing, regulating, planning and managing understood as a nested systemic hierarchy. It is argued that climate change adaptation is best understood as a coevolutionary dynamic, principally, but not exclusively between human beings and the biophysical world. Two forms of ‘knowledge brokerage’ based on mode 1 (knowledge) and mode 2 (knowing) are distinguished with practical implications. Drawing on extensive research by the authors, eight modalities for enacting ‘knowledge brokerage’ are introduced. The conditions for or against success in employing these modalities are described. Consistent with the views of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 4th Report 2007, it is argued that water managing is a paradigmatic domain for making climate change adaptation ‘real’ and a systemic issue of global concern at the core of sustainable development.     

淮河流域和长江中下游流域旱涝年的划分

利用1951—2007年国家气象信息中心提供的756站逐日降水资料,通过计算6—7月降水标准差,确定淮河流域和长江中下游流域降水变率最大的站点,分别计算各站与这两个流域降水变率最大的站点相关系数,把通过显著性检验的站点分别作为淮河流域和长江中下游流域的代表站。利用两流域代表站的标准化降水指数确定了1951—2007年的旱涝年份:淮河流域的旱年为1952年、1959年、1961年等共10 a,涝年为1954年、1956年、1957年等共9 a;长江中下游流域的旱年为1952年、1958年、1961年等共11 a,涝年为1954年、1969年、1980年等共10 a。结合水文资料进行修订后,确定了1951—2007年淮河流域和长江流域因梅雨季降水而导致的洪涝年份。     

Floods as Catalysts for Policy Change: Historical Lessons from England and Wales

The tied relationship between flood disasters and the demand for a policy response is well known. What is not well known is how and why particular policy ideas emerge as policy change options. Drawing on the public policy theoretical literature, the paper evaluates the policy impact of four of the most significant flood disasters in England and Wales in the past 50 years. In so doing, it seeks to highlight which of the environmental, contextual and behavioural drivers have, in the past, been critical factors in the elevation of policy options to policy agendas. By monitoring changes in such drivers we can offer an understanding of the potential policy changes that may occur in response to flood disasters in the future.     

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012: Assessing the Impacts on Water Resources to Inform Policy Makers

The Climate Change Act 2008 requires a series of assessments of the risks of climate for the UK, under both current conditions and over the long term, to 2100. This paper describes the research completed on the impacts of climate change on the UK water sector, involving stakeholder engagement and a mix of literature review, expert elicitation and broad-scale quantitative analysis to develop ten climate change risk metrics. These include measures of the demand for water, impacts on supply, water quality and asset performance using future scenarios based on the UK Climate Projections 2009 and future population projections from the Office for National Statistics. The analysis has resulted in a number of key findings that can help to inform policy in different parts of the UK. Overall the assessment showed that there is likely to be increased pressure on water resources in the UK. These pressures need to be considered in long term plans so that the needs of different users are met without impacting on the environment.     

黄河洪水丰枯变化规律及其与太阳活动的关系

径流量及洪水的变化与气候一样具有阶段性，分析江河所处的丰枯阶段对水文长期预报十分重要。黄河洪水与太阳活动磁周期的关系很密切，太阳活动单周易出现大水，双周多小水。利用这些规律同时结合其它方法进行综合分析，预报１９８８至１９９２年花园口站最大流量的趋势完全正确。     

Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface

The use of computer models offers a general and flexible framework that can help to deal with some of the complexities and difficulties associated with the development of water management plans as prescribed by the Water Framework Directive. However, despite the advantages modelling presents, the integration of information derived from models into policy is far away from being trivial or the norm. Part of the difficulties of this integration is rooted in the lack of confidence policy makers have on the incorporation of modelling information into policy formulation. In this paper we examine the reasons for this apparent lack of confidence and explore how some tools, presently in use, address this problem. We conclude that public confidence in models is highly dependent on the way uncertainties are addressed and suggest possible directions of action to improve the current situation. Four real case studies illustrate how computer models have been used in The Netherlands for carrying out management plans at regional and national scale. We suggest that the solution to integrate modelling information into policy formulation lies on both the modelling and the policy-making communities.     

黄河"58·7"与"82·8"暴雨洪水关系分析

195 8年 7月与 1982年 8月黄河下游分别发生了 1949年以来的第一和第二大洪水 ,两场洪水是下游防洪最重要的参照洪水。然而 ,这两场洪水的暴雨洪水关系却存在明显差别。在对三花间水库工程大规模调研的基础上 ,分析了中小型水库的防洪作用 ;并采用降雨径流关系法与新安江模型分别定量估算了前期影响雨量和暴雨时空分布对两场洪水的影响。从对大型水库工程、夹滩滞洪区以及暴雨时空分布、前期影响雨量、中小型水库等因素分析来看 ,暴雨时空分布的影响是主要的 ,中小型水库的影响并不显著     

伊洛河夹滩地区对伊洛河入黄洪水的影响

伊洛河河道两岸堤防的存在使夹滩地区的滞洪作用不同于天然滞洪区，它不仅对人黄洪水起滞洪削峰作用，而且对洪水总量还略有削减。不 同时期堤防的建设标准及河道条件不同，夹滩地区的滞洪作用也不同。经过1935、1937、1954、1958、1982年实测洪水资料的分析知，夹滩地区对入黄洪水的滞洪作用与洪水量经大小、洪水过程胖瘦、堤防决溢程度等因素有关，在现状堤防条件下，如何再发生1954、1958年量级的洪水，在确保洛洛北大堤安全的情况下，有计划地使用夹滩及南岸滞洪共滞洪，则夹滩地区对入黄洪水的削峰率可达20%～25%。但夹滩地区的容量有限，因此对洪水总量的滞蓄作用不大。     

复合土工膜砂砾料界面摩擦特性研究

复合土工膜与粗粒砂砾料垫层的界面摩擦特性对工程结构稳定性十分重要。现有的试验研究多集中在粒径较小的土料与土工织物接触, 对于由粒径较大的砂砾料与土工膜界面特性的研究较少。利用大型土工合成材料直剪仪开展了砂砾料与土工膜界面直剪摩擦试验研究, 讨论了砂砾料级配以及相对密度对界面摩擦特性的影响。试验结果表明:相对密度一定时, 粗颗粒含量越大, 摩擦因子越大;相同级配条件下, 相对密度越高, 摩擦因子越大。最后探讨了土工膜与剪切下盒基座间的固定方式对界面摩擦参数的影响, 求得不同的固定方式导致界面摩擦角相差可达1倍以上。     

Droughts and water trading in the western United States: recent economic evidence

Recent droughts in the western United States have encouraged the growth of spot markets for water trading in states like California, which witnessed $95 million worth of water exchanged through these transfers during 2009. This article uses water transaction data from Water Strategist Monthly to investigate the effect of droughts on the volume of water transferred in four western states. A statistically significant effect of drought intensity on the volume and price of water is seen. Multiyear leases and sales have a larger effect than annual leases on the amount of water transferred annually.     

Proposed Water Policy for Sri Lanka: The Policy versus the Policy Process

This paper discusses a recent experience of an unsuccessful attempt to adopt water policy for Sri Lanka. The donor-driven nature, top-down approach, lack of transparency, lack of historical and cultural perspectives, inadequate attention to environmental issues and inadequate safety nets have been cited as the major weaknesses of the proposed policy. This paper summarizes the major arguments against the policy document and analyses the reasonableness of the critiques. The paper also analyses two major aspects of the proposed policy--water pricing and tradable water rights--using a comprehensive policy analysis framework. The major lesson learnt is the significance of participatory approaches in formulating water policies.     

土工格栅与饱和细砂的界面特性试验研究

筋土界面特性是加筋土结构设计的重要技术指标,是揭示土工合成材料加筋机理的关键。采用GDS界面剪切仪研究了剪切速率、竖向应力及网孔尺寸对土工格栅与饱和细砂界面特性的影响。试验结果表明:剪切速率较小(≤1.0 mm/min)时,剪切速率对界面抗剪强度影响不大;剪切速率在1.0~10 mm/min范围内,随着剪切速率的增大,界面抗剪强度先增大后减小;界面抗剪强度随着竖向应力的增加而增大,竖向应力增强了土工格栅对土颗粒的嵌锁作用,限制了土颗粒的剪切移动,从而提高了土体的抗剪强度;剪切速率为1.0 mm/min,竖向应力较小(50~100 kPa)时,小网孔尺寸土工格栅加筋效果更明显;剪切速率为0.1 mm/min,竖向应力较大(200~300 kPa)时,大网孔尺寸土工格栅加筋效果更明显。研究结果对土工格栅在加筋土中的应用具有参考价值。     

Identification of the Non-stationarity of Floods: Changing Patterns,Causes, and Implications

Water Resources Management - The assumption of stationarity in the flood time series is the basis for flood design and forecasting. Therefore, identification of the non-stationarity of flood series...     

洞庭湖区"平垸行洪、退田还湖、移民建镇"工程效益简析

1998年后，按照中央32字治水方针，洞庭湖区实施了平垸行洪，改善了湖泊调蓄功能和水环境。对减少洪水直接灾害损失，促进区域经济发展和社会稳定，具有重要意义。文章分析了洞庭湖区平垸行洪、退田还湖、移民建镇工程的基本概况和对环境的影响及工程安施后产生的社会与经济效益。     

太湖流域1991年大水与城镇洪涝问题

继１９５４年之后，１９９１年太湖流域再一次发生了流域性大水，由于经济发达的苏州、无锡、常州地区及众多的工厂企业被淹，城市设施和工厂企业的直接经济损失达８０多亿元，占水灾损失总数的８０％，成为流域水灾的主要损失。本文以大量的资料和统计数字，阐术了１９９１年太湖流域城镇洪涝灾害的情况和特点，分析了产生洪涝灾害的原因，提出了解决城镇洪涝问题的对策。根据太湖流域１９９１年防汛斗争的经验，参照全国防汛斗争的     

Flood Hazard Assessment and Management: Interface with the Public

The understanding of how people evaluate and respond to natural hazards in an urban area, and how this knowledge can be integrated in the planning and management process, are becoming very important elements of a comprehensive and participatory approach to flood hazard management. Such an approach demands a clear comprehension of the processes of the risks perception, causal attribution, possible solutions for the problem and patterns of behaviour developed during hazard situations. The willingness of the public to participate in flood management, and the attitudes to previous initiatives also need to be addressed. The provision of structural flood defences can have a major impact on the environment and there has been an expression of concern by many members of the public for the degradation of river corridors. In this context, it is becoming a commonly accepted practice by central or local governments to submit flood management plans to public discussion. Appropriate techniques for interfacing with the public are necessary to support this upsurge of public involvement. This paper presents results from research on public perception of floods, flood management and participatory initiatives in Setúbal, Portugal. An extensive interview programme was undertaken with residents and shopkeepers – with and without flood experience, professionals responsible for dealing with flood control problems and local authorities responsible for decision-making on flood management. The paper concludes with a number of recommendations for flood hazard management policy making and processes.