The Impacts of Climate Variability and Future Climate Change in the Nile Basin on Water Resources in Egypt

This paper describes the application of hydrologic models of the Blue Nile and Lake Victoria sub-basins to assess the magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on Main Nile discharge. The models are calibrated to simulate historical observed runoff and then driven with the temperature and precipitation changes from three general circulation model (GCM) climate scenarios. The differences in the resulting magnitude and direction of changes in runoff highlight the inter-model differences in future climate change scenarios. A 'wet' case, 'dry' case and composite case produced +15 (+12), -9 (-9) and + 1(+7) per cent changes in mean annual Blue Nile (Lake Victoria) runoff for 2025, respectively. These figures are used to estimate changes in the availability of Nile water in Egypt by making assumptions about the runoff response in the other Nile sub-basins and the continued use of the Nile Waters Agreement. Comparison of these availability scenarios with demand projections for Egypt show a slight surplus of water in 2025 with and without climate change. If, however, water demand for desert reclamation is taken into account then water deficits occur for the present-day situation and also 2025 with ('dry' case GCM only) and without climate change. A revision of Egypt's allocation of Nile water based on the recent low-flow decade-mean flows of the Nile (1981-90) shows that during this period Egypt's water use actually exceeded availability. The magnitude of 'natural' fluctuations in discharge therefore has very important consequences for water resource management regardless of future climate change.     

湖南水利建设现状和发展前瞻

湖南当前和今后一段时间，水利建设总体上将以增强防汛抗旱整体能力为重点，逐步实现由工程水利向资源水利，由传统水利向现代水利、可持续发展水利转变。     

Water Resources Management: A New Policy for a Sustainable Future

To manage water more effectively, a new approach is necessary, incorporating a balanced set of policies and in stitutional reforms. Its core is the adoption of a comprehensive framework for water management that recognizes the interactions among the elements of a river basin's ecosystem and incorporates cross-sectional and environmental considerations in the design of investments and policies. The new approach also calls for water to be treated as an economic good, for decentralized management and delivery stru ctures, greater reliance on pricing, and fuller participation by stakeholders.     

中国水资源的现状与未来

根据中国水资源总量丰富,相对量较少,时空、地域分布不均衡的情况,水污染态势难以遏制,水资源浪费普遍存在,水资源管理体制尚未纳入市场管理轨道等问题,从农业、工业、生活用水方面预测未来50年我国水资源需求矛盾仍然十分突出,提出21世纪我国水资源必须建立有权威的中央统一管理和以市场经济为核心的管理体制,全面落实节水方针,开展中国水资源"生态-经济学"研究.     

Globalization and Management of Water Resources: Development Opportunities and Constraints of Diversified Developing Countries

The powerful forces of market-based globalization have been the central concern in the consideration of the development policies of individual developing countries for several years and will increase their salience in the coming period. Water policy should not be an exception. Market-based globalization having diametrically opposite forces, namely integration into the world economy and marginalization from it, the developing world has been divided into three categories, each requiring a different set of policy responses, including water policies. They are: (1) those countries that are being integrated into the world economy; (2) those that are marginalized from it; and (3) those where both forces (integration and marginalization) are at work simultaneously. Relevant policies, such as full cost pricing, environmental considerations, water productivity in agriculture, conflict in water allocation and others, need to be elaborated along the lines of these three categories of countries.     

中国水资源的现状与未来——21世纪水资源管理战略

根据中国水资源总量丰富 ,相对量较少 ,时空、地域分布不均衡的情况 ,水污染态势难以遏制 ,水资源浪费普遍存在 ,水资源管理体制尚未纳入市场管理轨道等问题 ,从农业、工业、生活用水方面预测未来 5 0年我国水资源需求矛盾仍然十分突出 ,提出 2 1世纪我国水资源必须建立有权威的中央统一管理和以市场经济为核心的管理体制 ,全面落实节水方针 ,开展中国水资源“生态 -经济学”研究。     

The Use of Object-Oriented Modeling for Water Resources Planning in Egypt

Water problems are omnipresent and are already becoming a limiting factor in the development of many countries. Currently the balance between the available and required water in Egypt is fragile. Any movement away from the balancing point means either less ambitious economic development or depletion of the resources and degradation of the environment. The continuing revolution in computer hardware and software is expected to provide more insight into the water problems and to alleviate some of the future water crises. In this paper we have investigated potential benefits which can be accrued from the application of object-oriented modeling in water resources.     

中国水资源利用特征及未来趋势分析

首先对我国过去60多年的用水数据进行整理分析,得出水资源利用时间分布特征:农业用水一直占主导地位,1949—1980年为快速增长期,1980年以后为稳定期甚至下降期;工业用水和生活用水则是在1980年后随着经济快速发展进入激增期。然后,对我国水资源利用空间特征进行分析可知:总用水、生活用水和工业用水呈现南高北低的态势;农业用水和生态环境补水用水呈现北高南低的态势;东、中、西部的用水效率呈现出一定差距,并呈现不同的变化态势。最后,运用情景分析法,分较高、适中和较低3种方案对我国未来10~15 a的需水量进行预测。     

Economic and Social Adaptations to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Egypt

Literature is em erging on the adaptation of water resource systems to climate change (Stakhiv, 1995; Strzepek & Sm ith, 1995). These adaptations are generally discussed at either the sectoral or at the micro-economic level. However, little has been said about the macro-economic adaptation to shifts in water resources due to climate change. This lack of discussion is primarily due to the fact that very few countries have been able to make a com prehensive national assessment of climate change im pacts on water resources at the same scale as a macro-economic modelling analysis. W here macro-economic m odelling has been done, the water resource systems are highly regional and difficult to aggregate to a single national im pact. W here homogenous water resources systems exist, m acro-econom ic impact modelling has not incorporated water resources. This paper examines the macro-economic adaptations to climate change im pacts on national water resources. Because of the problems listed above, a 'laboratory' country was chosen. Egypt has a single water resource- the Nile- and a substantial portion of Egypt's economic activity is related to this river. Changes in Nile discharges can be directly linked to macro-economic accoun ts, yet obviously more strongly linked to the agricultural sector. For this reason, a macro-economic m odel has been used which contains a disaggregated agricultural sector and a highly aggregated non-agricultural sector. A discussion of technical adaptations to climate change-induced reductions in Nile flows is presented. W hile these technical adaptations of the N ile are important, the macro-economic impacts of decreases or increases in Nile River discharge are shown to be minor compared with fu ture socioeconomic development and domestic policy strategies. The paper concludes with a discussion of anticipatory econom ic and policy adaptations that appear to be more significant than technical adaptations for Egypt.     

Preface to the Special Issue: Managing Water Resources for a Sustainable Future

Water Resources Management -     

塔里木河流域未来的水资源管理

塔里木河干流全长1321km.近100年来,特别是20世纪50年代以来,在河流生态变化过程中,生产力布局缺乏环境效益意识,水资源配置不合理以及效率低下造成的水土资源双重浪费,行政管理缺乏政令畅通的权威性等问题是建立有效的流域水资源管理体制必须认真思考的问题.塔里木河流域未来的水资源管理应建立水权塔河、生态塔河、资源塔河的治水理念.     

Potential of Modern Data Types for Future Water Resources Management

Abstract

Presently a change of paradigm in the field of planning and operation of water management schemes can be observed. The introduction of the principle of sustainable development by the United Nations and the principle of integrated river basin management postulated by the European Union play a major role in this context. Introduction of these new principles requires development of new planning tools, which in turn require a much better data basis than available hitherto. This paper deals with new data types already partly available now, partly to be expected to be developed in the medium-range future. The present data situation is discussed, along with the obvious deficits of conventional data. New data types will not be limited to point measurements, but rather must comprise information covering large areas with a higher resolution in time and space than presently available. Remote sensing data will play a more important role in the future. Furthermore, digital maps, digital elevation models, etc. are also of growing importance and will be processed, together with remote sensing and other data, within Geographical Information Systems of future generations also exposing the potential for working with multi-temporal imagery. In the paper it is shown that in the future more accurate data will be available, not only in terms of data quality, but also resolution in time and space. It is shown how the new types of hydrometeorological data postulate new types of hydrological models. Here, distributed system models are of growing importance. Furthermore, it is shown how the combination of remote sensing with other information leads to new data types that allow integrated planning of water resources systems. The potential of real time data is highlighted, particularly in the context of real time operation of water resources systems, especially for flood control. The potential of large-scale data schemes in the context of regional and continental water management schemes is discussed. Global atmospheric models coupled to hydrological models are discussed, and their potential to consider long-distance effects of certain phenomena (e.g., El Niño) are mentioned. For sustainable development of water resources, the potential of long-term data prediction scenarios is evaluated, and an example of this principle for planning future water supply systems is presented. The paper ends with a vision of future developments in planning water management schemes on the basis of new data types     

大同市水资源现状分析及发展对策

大同市是水质型与资源型缺水的城市,针对大同市水资源利用现状,提出大同市水资源未来发展的途径是开辟新水源工程、开展节水型社会建设、涵养地下水资源、引黄北干线供水及节约用水和水资源优化管理等对策。     

地表水资源量计算中存在的问题

地下水长期超采、水土保持以及煤矿开采等多项人类活动,同时还有年径流计算中具有普通性、代表性的问题,都影响到地表水资源量的计算。本文针对上述问题进行分析,并提出解决思路     

四川省水电资源及其开发利用

回顾了建国以来水力资源普查情况，给出了四川省最新调查成果；介绍了四川水电开发情况，列出了建国以来已、正建大、中型水电站，显示了辉煌的建设成就；展望了２１ 世纪初至２０２０ 年四川水电开发前景，并着重指出四川具有建设大中型调节水库的有利条件。     

珠江流域水利规划回顾及展望

珠江(片)包括珠江流域、韩江流域、海南省,广东、广西沿海诸河及云南、广西国际河流.流域管理范围涉及我国滇、黔、桂、粤、湘、赣、闽、琼8个省(自治区)和香港、澳门特别行政区,总面积65.43 km2.区域之间自然禀赋相差很大,经济社会发展水平悬殊,流域水利建设、管理和改革任务艰巨.珠江流域规划大致经历了建国前考察、建国初期杳勘、20世纪50年代末到70年代初步规划、20世纪80年代以后系统规划4个阶段.     

Water for agricultural development: Opportunities and constraints

Globally around 70% of all water used is for agricultural development. Thus, if the world's food crisis is to be successfully resolved, enough water of appropriate quantity and quality will be necessary. Water scarcity is already a serious issue in many arid and semi‐arid countries, and the problem is likely to intensify significantly in the future. Agriculture also affects water quality in many ways. The paper analyses the present’ status of the impacts of use of pesticides and nitrate fertilizers from different parts of the world.     

农业节水首先要合理调控利用当地水资源

我国灌区妈水的利用率低，水浪费严重，这是农业节水主要潜力之所在。灌区应以开发利用浅层地下水为基础，引地表水作补充，采取井渠结合地表水地下水联合运用的灌溉方式，合理调控利用当地水资源。在靠井灌溉没有渠灌水源的地区，要拦蓄降雨径流及汛后河水回补地下源。在有条件开发地下水的河水灌区，要井渠并用，优化调度水资源。在灌溉管理上，要按农业用水量控制灌溉水量。建议按流域和灌区工发利用和管理水资源，在河水灌区积极