Forecasting of China’s natural gas production and its policy implications

With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies, China’s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase, and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China’s energy structure. This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production, where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion. The forecast shows that China’s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036; in 2020, natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy. Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China’s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil. This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned. As well, full use should be made of domestic and international markets. Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas, which shall form a complement to the development of China’s conventional natural gas industry.     

Design and impact estimation of a reform program of China’s tax and fee policies for low-grade oil and gas resources

With China’s rapid economic development,it is important to formulate reasonable and feasible tax and fee policies to promote the development and utilization of low-grade oil and gas resources to guarantee China’s energy supply security.In this paper,by analyzing major problems of China’s current tax and fee policies for oil and gas resources,a reform program for low-grade oil and gas resources is designed from the aspects of tax/fee items and tax/fee rates.The impacts of this reform program on China and China’s oil companies during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" are investigated according to the related data in 2008.The results show that the proposed tax and fee reform program will lower the tax burden of oil companies,promote the development of low-grade oil and gas resources,and increase China’s GDP and national fiscal revenue.Besides that,it will bring positive social effects by increasing employment opportunities.     

Analysis of China‘s Oil Products Market

During the first half of 2001, the Chinese market of oil products suffered from shortage of resources with the prices falling in the first quarter but saw rapid growth in resources with the demand and price rising steadily.However, in June, the market demand growth began to slow down due to the price fall in the world market and the high market price at home. It is forecasted that the Chinese oil products market will have a steady growth in demand with a slowdown in the price rise and will fluctuate with the world market in the later half of this year. The growth rate will be lower than that of last year.……     

Status of China＇s Refined Oil Products Consumption and Forecast on Demand During the ＂11th Five-Year Plan＂ Period

The author used two common methods in this industry, i. e. the ＂Consumption Coefficient Method＂ and the ＂Elasticity Coefficient Trend Method＂, to forecast the refined oil product demand in 2010. Through analyzing and comparing the two forecast results, it is projected that the demand for finished product oils in 2010 will be in the range of 220 to 240 million tons a year. In addition, out of concern about the total oil products consumption to exceed 600 million tons/year in 2020, the author puts forward suggestions and measures aimed at conservation of oil products and application of alternative fuels.     

Establishment of a multi-cycle generalized Weng model and its application in forecasts of global oil supply

Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and interest between OPEC producers and other big oil supplier countries such as the USA and Russia. Forecasting global oil production is significant for all countries for energy strategy planning, although many past forecasts have later been proved to be very seriously incorrect. In this paper,the original generalized Weng model is expanded to a multi-cycle generalized Weng model to better reflect the multi-cycle phenomena caused by political, economic and technological factors. This is used to forecast global oil production based on parameter selection from a large sample, depletion rate of remaining resources, constraints on oil reserves and cycle number determination. This research suggests that the world will reach its peak oil production in 2022, at about 4340×10~6 tonnes. China needs to plan for oil import diversity, a domestic oil production structure based on the supply pattern of large oil suppliers worldwide and the oil demand for China's own development.     

Limitation of fault-sealing and its control on hydrocarbon accumulation—An example from the Laoyemiao Oilfield of the Nanpu Sag

Based on previous studies on the internal structures of fault belts, the fault belts in the Laoyemiao Oilfield of the Nanpu Sag can be divided into three units, a crushed zone, an upper induced fracture zone and a lower induced fracture zone according to the log response characteristics. The upper induced fracture zone is characterized by the development of pervasive fractures and has a poor sealing or non-sealing capability. It therefore can act as pathways for hydrocarbon migration. The lower induced fracture zone consists of fewer fractures and has limited sealing capability. The crushed zone has a good sealing capability comparable to mudstone and can thus prevent lateral migration of fluid. Through physical modeling and comparing laboratory data with calculated data of oil column heights of traps sealed by faults, it is concluded that the fault-sealing capability for oil and gas is limited. When the oil column height reaches a threshold, oil will spill over from the top of reservoir along the lower induced fracture zone under the action of buoyancy, and the size of reservoir will remain unchanged. Analysis of the formation mechanisms of the fault-sealed reservoirs in the Nanpu Sag indicated that the charging sequence of oil and gas in the reservoir was from lower formation to upper formation, with the fault playing an important role in oil and gas accumulation. The hydrocarbon potential in reverse fault-sealed traps is much better than that in the consequent fault-sealed traps. The reverse fault-sealed traps are favorable and preferred exploration targets.     

The Future of Oil Industry

Petroleum and natural gas are two important aspects of oil industry. They are important factors that restrain China’s economic development and affect the security of its energy supply as well. The issues related to oil and gas are a very hot topic, and arouse extensive attention globally. 1. Introduction Energy structure varies constantly with time. At present, the main forms of the world energy resources are such fossil fuels as coal, petroleum and natural gas. The future of oil industry i…     

SINOPEC TO BUILD EAST CHINA＇S 2^nd PRODUCT OIL PIPELINE

Following the 1^st＇ product oil pipeline in East China from Sinopec Zhenghai Refining ＆ Chemical Co. Ltd to Kangqiao in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province put on operation in November 2000, Sinopec intends to build the 2^nd product oil pipeline starting from Jinshan, Shanghai directly to Huzhou via Jiaxing in Zhejiang. The pipeline is expected to bring into service by the end of December next year. This product oil pipeline is 157 kilometers in total length, in which, there is 105 kilometers within Jiaxing City and 52 kilometers within Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province. The total investment for the pipeline engineering and the associated oil storage will be approximately RMB550 million yuan. At present, the construction is in an overall preparation stage. The designed capacity of the pipeline is 5.1 million tons per year, equivalent to a volume that one 10-ton oil tanker transports 510,000 times, in which, the designed operational throughput toward Jiaxing and Huzhou will be 2.60 million tons per year and the oil supply capacity reserved will be 2.50 million tons per year.     

Review and Prospect of China’s Oil Refining Industry

(to Issue No.1) Prospect of China’s oil refining industry during the"12th Five-Year Plan"period The"12th Five-Year Plan"period is critical to China oil refining industry to transform growth mode and grow from big to strong.China oil refining industry will base itself on domestic market demand and maintain rapider development through construction and reconstruction.The total scale will continue to grow,crude runs and product oil output will rise steadily,and the structure and layout of refining units will be further adjusted and optimized. During the period,the number of 10-million-tonnage refineries will rise to about 30,the quality of oil products will be upgraded,overseas interest capability will be improved,and the diversified market competition pattern of oil refining industry will be developed further.     

Review on the Trend for Development of World＇s Petroleum Refining Industry

This article introduces the situation related with the increasingly deteriorating crude quality, the demand for cleaner transportation fuels and clean production processes that the world＇s petroleum refining industry is faced with. This article also suggests that the trend for future development of global refining industry is focused on the economy of scale for the refineries and the oil processing units, the refining structure readjustment, integration of the oil refining and chemical production and formation of oil refining bases. The oil refining industry will uninterruptedly rectify its industry allocation and processing unit configuration and strive for the reduction of production cost through technical progress and management innovations to reduce the production cost, boost the profitability and sharpen the market competitive edge.     

Engineering Application of Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking

1 Introduction The supply of conventional petroleum is decreasing while heavy oil resources in the world exceed 600 million tons, so heavy oil will become an important energy source in the 21~(st) century. Most of the crude oil in China is fairly heavy and vacuum residue with boiling point higher than 500℃ accounts for 40%—60% of crude oil, even higher than 60% in heavy crude.     

A Fluid Catalytic Cracking Unit Designed to Process Daqing Vacuum Residua

The crude distillation capacity of Beijing Yanshan Petrochemical Company Limited(BYPC) of SINOPEC is 8.5 Mt/a. The crude oil processed is mostly Daqing crude oil. Due to the diversified demand of the oil market, the heavy oil can hardly be sold in the summer season. If the excess residue is processed, the light oil products yield and the benefit of BYPC will be increased. So the fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCCU)with a capacity of 800kt/a was revamped to process Daqing vacuum residue in 1998.……     

Changing Pattern of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Exports and Broad Prospects for China and Saudi Arabia Cooperation in Petroleum Industry

Changing pattern of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports Saudi Arabia(hereinafter referred to as Saudi)long time ranks No.one of world oil production and lost the title only in 2009 and 2010 due to cutting output which is slightly lower than the Russian output.It is predicted that global annual oil output in the next 10 years will be more than 4 billion tons,during which Saudi annual oil output will be up to 540-550 million tons,accounting for about 14 percent of global annual oil output.Saudi’s 2005 oil exports of about 360 million tons accounted for 17.78 percent of the global oil exports,and 42.66%of the Middle East.Over the next 10 years,it is expected Saudi oil exports will reach 380-400 tons.Saudi plenty of spare     

China to Further Accelerate Overseas Oil Operation

With China‘s national economy developing rapidly, the contradiction between oil supply and demand is increasing intense in the country. The growth of the domestic production has been lower than that of consumption since 1993.Reportedly, the oil consumption will rise at a rate of about 3.5 percent each year before 2010 while dependence on foreign oil resources will rise to 44 percent by 2010 from the current 20percent. It is an important issue for China‘s future economy to secure a long-term and stable oil supply. It is necessary to accelerate China‘s overseas oil operation because this issue is strategically related to whether the national economy can be kept growing continuously and healthfully.……     

SINOPEC＇s Countermeasure to Withstand the Impact on Petrochemical Industry after China＇s Accession to WTO

1 Profile of SINOPEC.SINOPEC is the first Chinese company, which was listed in Hong Kong, New York, London and Shanghai. The business portfolio of SINOPEC covers oil exploration and development,petroleum refining, petrochemical and oil products marketing,with a total sales revenue of 324.2 billion RMB and a net profit of 22 billion RMB. SINOPEC is the second largest oil and gas producer in China and is also the biggest oil refiner of China with its crude processing capacity ranked number five in the world. With 24,000 wholly controlled gas stations and 4,127 authorized gas stations, SINOPEC owns an extensive oil products marketing network. It is the largest in China oil products distributor and sales company, and is ranked the sixth largest company in the world.     

An Empirical Study of Asian Crude Oil Premiums

Middle East is the major world region producing and exporting crude oil. However, the same Middle East crude oil has different prices when it is sold to different countries. The price① to Asian countries might be higher than that to European and America countries. This kind of difference is termed the Asian crude oil premium. Owing to the premium, Asian countries have to pay more to import Middle East crude oil than European and America countries. Japan depends heavily on Middle East cr…     

Analysis and calculation model of energy consumption and product yields of delayed coking units

Delayed coking is an important process used to convert heave oils to light products. Energy consumption and fight oil yield are important factors for evaluating the delayed coking process. This paper analyzes the energy consumption and product yields of delayed coking units in China. The average energy consumption shows a decreasing trend in recent years. The energy consumption of different refineries varies greatly, with the average value of the highest energy consumption approximately twice that of the lowest energy consumption. The factors affecting both energy consumption and product yields were analyzed, and correlation models of energy consumption and product yields were established using a quadratic polynomial. The model coefficients were calculated through least square regression of collected industrial data of delayed coking units. Both models showed good calculation accuracy. The average absolute error of the energy consumption model was approximately 85 MJ/t, and that of the product yield model ranged from 1 wt% to 2.3 wt%. The model prediction showed that a large annual processing capacity and high load rate will result in a reduction in energy consumption.     

Tremendous Task Facing China＇s Oil Refining Industry

China‘s oil refining industry was ironically described as “small tea pot” industry in the 1950s. Currently, China has established a comparatively complete oil refining system, taking an important position in the world after the efforts of more than five decades. First of all. Chinas refining capacity has grown significantly. The nation‘s crude processing capacity reached 304 million tons in 2003 with the actual processing volume amounting to 26““7 million tons,ranking the second in the world. Secondly, remarkable achievements have been made in the expansion of refineries and units. Thirdly, the system of scientific research, designing， construction, manufacture and production has been established for oil refining industry.Fourthly, the quality of oil products is continually on the rise. Finally, the long-distance pipelines for transmission of crude and oil products experienced a rapid development.Although the eye-catching achievements have been made in China‘s oil refining industry, the situation facing the nation is not optimistic in the future owing to the following reasons.     

The Proposal for Revamp and Expansion of Ethylene Project at Guangzhou Petrochemical Complex Approved

The project for revamp of the ethylene unit at SINOPEC Guangzhou Petrochemical Branch Co. has been approved by the State Development and Reform Commission to expand the ethylene capacity from the current level of 200 kt/a to 800 kt/a. Completion of this revamp project will modify the current small ethylene capacity that cannot match the large refining capacity at Guangzhou Petrochemical Complex （GPC）.The 15 Mt/a refining capacity coupled with the 800 kt/a ethylene capacity can make the integration of oil refining and chemical production at GPC to optimize the product slate,     

The evolution and present status of the study on peak oil in China

Peak oil theory is a theory concerning long-term oil reserves and the rate of oil production. Peak oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil or gas in any area under consideration. Its inevitability is analyzed from three aspects. The factors that influence peak oil and their mechanisms are discussed. These include the amount of resources, the discovery maturity of resources, the depletion rate of reserves and the demand for oil. The advance in the study of peak oil in China is divided into three stages. The main characteristics, main researchers, forecast results and research methods are described in each stage. The progress of the study of peak oil in China is summarized and the present problems are analyzed. Finally three development trends of peak oil study in China are presented.