可持续发展：遏制城市建设中的“公地”和“反公地”现象

对于发展中国家而言,没有经济效率,就不会有社会公正和生态环境;对于人口高密度的发展中国家而言,没有土地使甩高效率,就不会有城市社会公正和生态环境.在发展中国家(包括中国)普遍的"公地"和"反公地"产权现象对城市土地使用高效率构成了严重的威胁.如果没有:①一个根据供需关系运作的高效率房地产产业:②具备足够财政能力的地方政府:③政府对土地市场和城市建设的有效管治,土地市场中的"公地"和"反公地"会形成内在的恶性循环,使城市被永久地锁定在发展不可持续的境地中.     

The impact of urbanization policy on land use change: A scenario analysis

The rapid urbanization has led to extensive land use change particularly in those developing countries. In line with the development of urbanization, arable land is decreasing dramatically, which presents the threat to the food security for human being. It is therefore essential to understand the level of impacts of urbanization on the land use change. This paper introduces a dynamic systems based method for assessing the impacts of urbanization policy on land use change with reference to the urbanization practice in China. Four typical policy scenarios are identified in implementing urbanization in China, including balanced development driven by planning, uneven development driven by planning, balanced development driven by market and uneven development driven by market and their impacts on land use change are analyzed through a dynamic system model. Land use change is considered as a dynamic system model composing five subsystems: urbanization, social, economic, environmental and land use subsystems. The key attributes in these five subsystems are interactive and they are dynamic variables. The assessment on the impacts of urbanization policy to land use change is demonstrated through employing the software iThink to the land use change dynamic model, using the data collected from the Jinyun County in China. The findings suggest that the urban construction land will continue to increase in the foreseeable future in China, whilst the agricultural land will gradually decrease. Nevertheless, different policy scenarios will have different impacts on these land changes. Thus decision makers can adopt different policies to control the rate of land use change.     

应对海平面上升问题的城市土地利用格局 脆弱性多情景模拟评估及应对策略

全球气候变化引发的海平面上升对沿海区域的环境和社会经济发展造成巨大破坏。以珠三角广州南沙为研究区域,基于传统、自然增长和规划控制3种土地利用格局预设发展情景,采用PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model)模型模拟各情景下的未来土地利用格局。同时,针对近期(2030年)、中期(2050年)和远期(2100年)3种不同海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险下的土地利用格局脆弱性开展多情景定量化评估,并提出应对策略。结果显示：1)3种土地利用格局发展情景中,传统格局情景能够最有效地应对或缓解海平面上升和风暴潮灾害风险,而自然增长情景应对未来海岸灾害的能力最弱;2)从不同土地利用类型的脆弱性程度来看,城镇建设用地的综合脆弱性最高,而村庄建设用地的综合脆弱性最低;3)根据不同发展情景及灾害风险应采用综合防御、适应及撤退等多种应对策略。综合考虑了未来土地利用格局的多种变化情景、灾害风险及应对策略,能够为滨海城市应对未来海岸灾害的适应性规划提供决策参考。     

Building a GIS Platform for Sustainable Land Management: A Case Study of the City of Čačak,Serbia

The general aim of this research is to contribute to sustainable land management and urban planning practices. An approach for building an urban planning-oriented information platform that could support a sustainable (i.e. environmentally sustainable), socially responsible and economically efficient decision-making process in the future at the municipal level is proposed. The proposed information platform approach relies on and is built for the Geographic Information System (GIS) but includes basic data management principles and the standards of the Spatial Data Information (SDI) concept, namely, INSPIRE. Thus, a model with the two following technical elements for building land management and urban planning based on a general platform or database is proposed in this article: (1) a conceptual Unified Modeling Language (UML) data model for urban planning metadata and data for different types of urban plans and (2) lists of land-use classes and types at the municipal level (included in the UML data model). The proposed approach includes a land-use model and the standardization of urban planning data to build a GIS platform to better integrate various types of data (social, economic, environmental, etc.) and is based on general and detailed urban regulation plans and land governance practices in the City of ?a?ak, Republic of Serbia. Once implemented, the proposed approach is expected to create preconditions for decision making regarding future sustainable land development in ?a?ak and other municipalities in Serbia.     

土地储备规划编制的实践思考——以上海宝山区土地储备规划为例

土地储备作为土地市场管理的重要环节和组成部分,已成为上海土地管理部门关注的热点和工作重心。土地储备规划是根据经济社会发展规划、土地利用总体规划和城市规划,针对收储城市可开发建设用地资源编制的土地储备总体规划,也是制订土地储备年度计划的一种方式。通过比较分析宝山区2006年和2010年两次土地储备规划的编制背景和成果内容,并结合上海郊区当前发展的现状实际和未来预期,重点对土地储备规划与控制性详细规划及其与城市近远期发展的关系提出基于管理实践的规划思考。     

Simulation of urban growth using agent-based modeling and game theory with different temporal resolutions

Population increase and industrialization, particularly in developing countries, has led to the rapid growth of urban areas. To adequately direct urban growth, provide access to urban facilities and preserve the environment, accurate planning is required. As part of urban planning, computer-based simulation models can be used to predict the natural growth of urban areas. The objective of this research is to develop an agent-based simulation model, with different temporal resolutions and reinforced by game theory, to predict the growth of Zanjan city between 2011 and 2016. In the model, three types of land developer, classified according to their income level, are considered as agents, with different attributes and behaviors. Agents search the cellular environment, collect data and select proper sites for development in accordance with their criteria and preferences. When several agents select a single cell for development, their competition is modeled by game theory. The agent-based model is implemented and tested in two scenarios: with game theory and without it. In addition, based on the fact that urban growth is a spatio-temporal phenomenon, different temporal resolutions of 6, 12, 30 and 60 months are considered in the implementation. Kappa statistics, Percent Correct Match, and figure of merit are used to compare the results of modeling scenarios with the urban map of 2016. The best result of 81.1%, 97.32% and 6.38% for Kappa statistics, Percent Correct Match and figure of merit are obtained, when game theory and 6-months resolution is used. The results showed that the usage of game theory and higher temporal resolution have both positive effects on the accuracy of the model. With higher temporal resolutions, the gradual developments of neighboring cells can well be considered by agents. Using game theory can help in modeling the competition-based interactions and behavior of agents.     

生态整合目标导向下的城市开放空间资源利用与关联建设用 地布局

针对城镇建设土地利用与开放空间 系统相互割裂,土地利用布局错位的问题,提 出城市规划层面,土地利用与空间布局所承载 的自然、社会与经济过程多纬度整合的规划 思路。立足城市规划土地利用核心环节,致力 于城镇建设土地利用系统和开放空间土地资 源系统的生态整合,趋利避害。文章通过实地 走访调查及文献研究等方法,对城市土地利 用、公共空间现状及其相互关系进行了调查 研究,梳理了其中存在问题,并尝试结合案例 实践探索生态整合目标导向下的规划路径： 通过可相容性分析将环境区分配给可以创造 社会与经济增殖效益的建设土地用途,并以 此获取环境保护的经济与社会支持;运用环 境区与建设区的整体空间布局方法,最大化 环境区外部增殖效益;保护地域环境资源并 融入建设土地利用,塑造地域空间     

A multi-scenario forecast of urban change: A study on urban growth in the Algarve

The Algarve region in Portugal is often considered as one of the most appealing regions for tourism in the country. Its attractive location and moderate climate have since the mid-1960s brought increasing economic prosperity. As a result of the development of mass tourism, available land-use resources were widely exploited to create an integrated tourist industry. In this area, economic prosperity has led to an increasing population and a significant growth of infrastructures to cope with the demand from the hospitality sector. The far-reaching land-use changes have, however, led to high pressures on the coastal areas of the Algarve. This region has shown an increasing loss of ecosystems resulting from the expansion of urban areas. This paper proposes a dynamic assessment of urban growth in the Algarve based on non-linear complex system modelling by using cellular automata converging on qualitative story lines with quantitative spatial methodologies. This new methodology utilizes both quantitative and qualitative spatial results by a comparative validation of built scenarios, in order to highlight future land use trends. In particular, three scenarios will be explored, each with distinct specific socio-economic paths. Our analysis to identify the scenario with the best fit, based on the evolution of the actual 2006 land cover, enabled us to build a future urban growth model for 2020 which was quantitatively assessed. The outcome suggests a picture of continuing growth for the region of the Algarve within the framework of current policies and regressive spatial trends.     

都市农业与城市绿色空间的有机契合——城乡空间统筹的规划探索

城乡统筹发展涉及经济、社会、环境等方方面面,本文侧重从城乡统筹规划的实质——城乡空间布局方面进行探索。以济南市为例,探讨符合现代农业生产力布局理论并与城市总体规划有机结合的农业经济区域布局框架,重点确定与城市绿色空间关系最为密切的都市农业的布局,统筹协调都市农业与城市绿色空间之间的有机契合,尽可能赋予有限的土地资源以多种功能,兼顾城市与都市农业发展的双重需求。     

Developing sustainable power systems by evaluating techno-economic,environmental, and social indicators from a system dynamics approach

The transition from fossil fuel-based energy systems to renewable energy systems (RES), especially in fossil-fuel-rich countries, is a challenging process requiring consideration of numerous factors, including technological feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and public acceptance. As governments play a crucial role in determining energy and environmental policy, developing practical policymaking tools encourages them to stimulate the adoption of renewable energy technology. This study proposes a novel framework to model an energy system transition focused on the power generation and its dynamic behavior of fossil-fuel-rich countries using the System Dynamics (SD) approach and then assesses the techno-economic and environmental impacts of various economic, technical, and environmental policies using the Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis technique (MCDA). This study aims to compare the development of renewable technologies development versus improving the current technology efficiency under three different “business as usual,” “basic development,” and “advanced development” scenarios by assessing economic, environmental, and social indicators over the horizon of 2016–2040 in fossil-rich-fuel countries. The proposed framework was applied to Iran, a fossil-fuel-rich country. According to the case study results, in all of the defined policies under three scenarios, the improvement of fossil fuel technologies received the highest score indicating that improvement in the efficiency of the current energy system by utilizing combined cycle systems is an inevitable step. Taking into account the water shortage in Iran, the second crucial stage is the implementation of water-efficient renewable technologies.     

The impact of new developments on river water quality from an integrated system modelling perspective

New housing areas are a ubiquitous feature of modern life in the developing and developed world alike built in response to rising social, demographic and economic pressures. Inevitably, these new developments will have an impact on the environment around them. Empirical evidence confirms the close relationship between urbanisation and ambient water quality. However, what is lacking so far is a detailed and more generalised analysis of environmental impact at a relatively small scale. The aim of this paper is to quantify the impact of new developments on river water quality within an integrated system modelling perspective. To conduct the impact analyses, an existing integrated urban wastewater model was used to predict water flow and quality in the sewer system, treatment plant and receiving water body. The impact on combined sewer overflow (CSO) discharges, treatment plant effluent, and within the river at various reaches is analysed by ‘locating’ a new development on a semi-hypothetical urban catchment. River water quality is used as feedback to constrain the scale of the new development within different thresholds in compliance with water quality standards. Further, the regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) method is applied to reveal the parameters with the greatest impact on water quality. These analyses will help to inform town planners and water specialists who advise them, how to minimise the impact of such developments given the specific context.     

“紧凑住区”：中国未来城郊住宅可持续发展的方向？

在住宅建设的过程中节约用地是城市可持续发展的要求。住房改革后,大量城郊住宅的发展伴随着城市边缘地区和近郊区农业和生态用地的大量流失。因此,探讨未来中国城郊住宅可持续发展的方向成为设计和规划领域的重要问题。本文探讨了“密集型住宅小区”在节约住宅用地和改善小区居住环境方面的表现,并建立了定量分析的系统模型对住宅小区空间密集程度和它对小区居住环境的影响进行分析。通过对广州的三个住宅小区的具体研究,本文初步判断增加小区的密集程度确实可以带来小区在整体环境上的一些改善。     

Low-Income Access to Urban Land and Housing in Botswana

Like most developing countries, Botswana—a middle-income country—has experienced rapid urban growth, which has brought in its wake many social and economic problems. One of the key challenges has been the lack of access to land and housing for the poor who have moved into the urban centres in large numbers in search of employment and economic survival. Many programmes and strategies have been introduced by both central and local governments to address this problem. These include: squatter settlement upgrading; public housing through site, service and self-help housing; subsidised plot allocation; financial incentives for housing construction, etc. Many challenges have hampered the implementation of these strategies and programmes including fast urbanisation, which outstrips supply of land and housing for most urbanites; unaffordability of many of these schemes; poor targeting; high defaulting rates and poor management of these schemes. This paper calls upon the government, the private sector and local communities to devise holistic solutions to enable low-income households to procure decent accommodation in urban areas.     

Urban growth: Changes,management, and problems in large cities of Southeast China

Compared with medium-sized cities, megacities play an increasingly important role in the rapid urbanization process in China. Owing to the expanding scale of large cities, urban sprawl leads to unsustainable practices that cause ecological, social, and environmental problems. Urban planning and land use planning are major driving forces of land use and land cover change in China. However, the goals of these two types of planning are different, and coordinating them is a challenge for local government decision makers. Thus, we use the SLEUTH model to simulate the implementation scenarios of future urban growth in Nanjing in the Jiangsu province of China. Using the scientific simulation data of the model, we contrasted the alternative futures of the two planning types for local government decision makers to achieve sustainable urban planning.The objective of our study is to explore the problems and possible solutions for urban management in the context of amegacity in China. The results of our study confirm the value of SLEUTH, which provid esextensive exploratory knowledge in evaluating the effects of possible local government decisions.     

Utilisation of underground pedestrian systems for urban sustainability

Underground pedestrian systems (UPS) have emerged as an urban phenomenon in the city centres of mega-cities, providing alternative walkways that are safe, accessible, efficient and pleasant for pedestrians. Despite many successful UPS in operation around the world, the application and performance of UPS are not yet well understood by local authorities. While previous studies debated the impacts on cities and people that the development of UPS would bring, an understanding of how to develop UPS to contribute to sustainable urban development, including economic viability, environmental livability and social equity, should be improved. This paper presents a detailed discussion of potential contributions and challenges in developing UPS within the context of sustainable urban development. It contains a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between UPS and urban development with regard to urban planning concepts such as the compact city, city resilience, sustainable transport and urban renewal, within the context of contemporary challenges such as the need to achieve economic sustainability, managing a non-renewable and vulnerable underground resource, and humanisation and social sustainability. It demonstrates why UPS development presents opportunities for and challenges to achieving economic viability, environmental livability and social equity, how to develop UPS so that they make effective contributions to sustainable urban development, and how the challenge of each issue has been addressed in light of the experiences of cities with UPS developments globally.     

Desirable Dense Neighbourhoods: An Environmental Psychological Approach for Understanding Community Resistance to Densification

This article examines an environmental psychological approach to exploring the attitudes of urban residents towards what they consider to be a ‘desirable dense’ neighbourhood. Socio-cultural expectations of high-density developments are explored through an analysis of residents’ perceptions of what constitutes a desirable high-density environment. The article presents specific findings identifying influences on residents’ attitudes to urban densification derived from three case studies of designated transit-oriented development (TOD) areas located in the Perth Metropolitan Region. It was found that community resistance towards future higher-density developments is rooted in the current socio-cultural context of the area. Community resistance may be driven by the physical quality of developments (such as building heights, overshadowing), however, deeper concerns are allied to the uncertain social outcomes that are the product of new development. A dominant cultural characteristic such as a disinclination to socialise with diverse people is found to be a negative response to dense neighbourhoods in all the case studies. This characteristic is more evident in populations of high socio-economic status. These areas are usually close to the central business district (CBD) where many infill high-density developments have been proposed.     

Challenges of Solid Waste Management in Kisumu,Kenya

Solid waste management is a major environmental and public health concern in many urban areas of developing countries. Kisumu like many urban areas of developing countries is grappling with increasing waste generation, an overflowing dumpsite and pollution from uncontrolled discarding of waste. Sustainable solid waste management has remained elusive in the City due to lack of adequate funding and skilled personnel besides poor public attitude towards waste management. Efforts abound to improve the situation but significant progress is hindered by the difficulties in relocating Kachok dumpsite. Recommendations are made for a sustainable solid waste management system supported by a suitably relocated Kachok dumpsite.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois

Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate total suspended solids and phosphorus concentration generated at a 10 year interval. The predicted results indicate that for a large portion of the watershed, the concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) would be higher under B1 and A1B climate scenarios during late winter and early spring compared to the same period in 2010; while the summer period largely demonstrates a reverse trend. Model results further suggest that by 2020, phosphorus concentration would be higher during the summer under B1 climate scenario compared to 2010, and is expected to wane by 2030. The projected phosphorus concentrations during the late winter and early spring periods vary across climate and land use scenarios. The analysis also denotes that middle and high density residential development can reduce excess TSS concentration, while the establishment of dense commercial and industrial development might help ameliorate high phosphorus levels. The combined land use and climate change analysis revealed land use development schemes that can be adopted to mitigate potential future water quality impairment. This research provides important insights into possible adverse consequences on surface water quality and resources under certain climate change and land use scenarios.     

小城镇发展与城镇用地预测研究--以重庆市大足县为例

根据大足县的自然、社会经济环境和小城镇的发展现状,预测了大足县未来5年和10年的城镇化水平与城镇用地的需求量。根据预测,未来大足县城镇用地的需求很大。随着城镇化进程的加快,城镇用地的供需矛盾会更加突出。因此,一方面应加大农村居民点的集中和农居用地的整理,在保持耕地占补平衡的基础上,适当增加重点小城镇的用地;另一方面,要加强城镇用地的集约化程度,提高现有土地的利用率。总的原则是首先保证经济实力强的小城镇的用地,以发展其经济,增强其辐射范围,从而带动整个大足农村经济的发展,提高大足县整体经济水平;其次,对目前经济实力一般,但未来有较大发展潜力而人均用地又较少的小城镇,适当地提高其用地水平;对目前经济实力一般,而人均用地较多的小城镇,要严格控制城镇用地的增加。     

PLANNING SITE-SPECIFIC WATER-DEMAND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

Water-demand management is a pro-active approach to water conservation, which considers water-consumption 'needs'as 'demands'rather than requirements. Taking into account a variety of engineering strategies to reduce urban water consumption, this research discusses the use of a tool for developing a master plan for site-specific implementation. The tool links the characteristics of urban areas (engineering, economic and social) with the applicability of particular water-demand management strategies within a fuzzy logic framework, to provide spatially-sensitive decision support - both at a strategic and an application level. The initial results, under various user-defined scenarios, are presented and discussed. It is argued that decision-support tools are beneficial in assisting the water industry to move towards a more pro-active approach to urban water management, similar to the approach which has already been adopted by the Telecommunication and Energy sector.