Phytoplankton growth dynamics in offshore Lake Erie during mid-winter

The phytoplankton community in offshore Lake Erie in mid-winter was active but little net growth was occurring which suggests that high reported accumulations of phytoplankton in this lake in February are likely the product of previous bloom conditions. We measured phytoplankton dynamics as size-specific growth and loss rates of phytoplankton using dilution assays and antibiotic assays in ice-covered offshore waters of Lake Erie during the mid-winter period in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Total chlorophyll-a specific rates (average ± standard deviation) measured using dilution assays for growth ([0.72 ± 0.35/d]) and loss ([0.98 ± 0.36/d]) were closely matched. Growth and loss rates of picocyanobacteria determined using an antibiotic technique ranged from − 0.10 to 1.22/d and − 0.11 to − 2.35/d, respectively. The results indicate a trend of higher grazing rate than growth rate but that this difference is not significantly different from zero, suggesting a state of phytoplankton population size equilibrium at this time of year in the waters sampled.     

The ecological history of Lake Erie as recorded by the phytoplankton community

Lake Erie's water quality has fluctuated since European settlement due to cultural eutrophication and the effects of invasive species. Our attempts to understand the cause-and-effect linkages between observed ecosystem changes and various stressors are evolving. Non-indigenous species, pollutants, land-use and climate change that can alter a lake's physical and chemical environment can manifest rapid changes in community composition and abundance of phytoplankton. As such, for many decades researchers have used phytoplankton data from Lake Erie to track environmental changes. We provide a chronological account of previous and ongoing assessments of pelagic algae to summarize past and present environmental conditions of Lake Erie. This review necessarily focuses on diatom-based assessments as their preserved remains in sediments have been used to hind-cast human-induced impacts and recovery. Because of their uniqueness, this review summarizes where possible the long-term trends according to the western, central and eastern lake basins. Overall, this historical assessment summarizes a period of significant eutrophication throughout most of the 20th century, followed by water quality improvement due to nutrient reductions and establishment of filter-feeding dreissenids. Recent data suggest new issues associated with blooms of diatoms and blue-green algae. The challenges facing Lake Erie underline the need for continued monitoring and evaluation of historical records that will help us distinguish natural from anthropogenic changes, and to reveal the causes and extent of environmental insults in order to make management decisions.     

Trends in Lake Erie phytoplankton biomass and community structure during a 20-year period of rapid environmental change

Since the 1990s, Lake Erie has experienced resurgent eutrophication due in part to climate change-driven increases in precipitation, which have combined with increasingly intensive agricultural practices in the region to produce excessive nutrient runoff into the lake. Harmful blooms of the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa (“Microcystis”) in Lake Erie’s western and central basins (WB and CB, respectively) have been a highly visible consequence of this eutrophication, however few studies have characterized intra- or interannual trends in less abundant, though likely more edible, phytoplankton taxa over the last 25 years. Here, we used the 20-year Lake Erie Plankton Abundance Study (LEPAS) dataset to quantify intra- and interannual trends in the dynamics of six major phytoplankton groups in the WB and CB during 1995–2015. Cyanobacteria biomass in the WB increased >1000-fold during this period, while biomass of all other major taxa groups increased between 10- and 100-fold. Early summer (June–July) and spring (May) communities saw more modest directional change in the biomass of both edible and less-edible taxa as well as community structure. Around 2008, the CB also began to experience Microcystis blooms concurrent with those in the WB, with similar, though less dramatic consequences for phytoplankton community structure and edible biomass. The biomass of several phytoplankton groups exhibited intra-annual oscillations with a ∼5-year period. The mechanisms underlying changes in the phytoplankton community structure and their consequences for higher trophic levels are not well understood, however increases in edible phytoplankton may be sustaining long-term upward trends in many zooplankton taxa.     

Improved thermal structure simulation and optimized sampling strategy for Lake Erie using a data assimilative model

Lake Erie has experienced substantial environmental issues (e.g., hypoxia, harmful algal blooms) for decades, which are closely related to the lake’s thermal characteristics. While three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic models have been widely applied to Lake Erie, challenges remain due to model representation of physical processes, errors and uncertainty in boundary conditions and forcing terms. The Great Lakes region has a relatively dense and long-term observational record, and these observational data have been used for model initialization and verification, but have not been incorporated into 3D model simulations through data assimilation (DA) to create reanalysis products or improve short-term forecasts. In this work, we developed and evaluated DA to improve thermal structure simulation of Lake Erie. Moored instrument data and satellite data are incorporated into a data-assimilative hydrodynamic model for analysis and evaluation. Results show that DA can effectively improve the model performance to create reanalysis fields when the DA formulation is appropriately developed in recognition of the dynamic complexities and anisotropic error covariances of Lake Erie. The data assimilative model also improves forecasting accuracy and restrains forecasting uncertainty to an acceptable level on a timescale of 1–7 days after being unleashed from DA. Lastly, data sampling strategies based on an error correlation map are examined. Results show the method can effectively reduce the sampling effort while still achieving similar model skills with potential for optimal design of an observation network or field sampling strategy.     

Distribution of seston and nutrient concentrations in the eastern basin of Lake Erie pre- and post-dreissenid mussel invasion

Increased human population growth, reduction of phosphorus (P) loading, and the invasion of dreissenid mussels may have changed the spatial pattern and relationships between the nearshore and the offshore seston and nutrient concentrations in the eastern basin of Lake Erie over the past 30 years. We compared seston characteristics, nutrient concentrations, and phytoplankton nutrient status between nearshore and offshore zones in years before (1973–1985) and after (1990–2003) the dreissenid invasion. In 1973 (the only pre-dreissenid year nearshore data was collected), chlorophyll a (chla) and nutrient concentrations were higher nearshore than offshore. In post-dreissenid years, nearshore chla concentrations became significantly lower than the offshore, while carbon (C):chla ratios became higher, which was related to mussel grazing and possibly photoacclimation. Phosphorus deficiency in the phytoplankton increased over the 30-year period, and in the post-dreissenid years was less acute in the nearshore than offshore. Mean water column irradiance became higher in the nearshore relative to the offshore in the post-dreissenid years. The nutrient changes and phytoplankton physiology were consistent with the expected effects of nutrient cycling by mussels and diminished demand by phytoplankton despite increased demand from benthic algae in the nearshore. This basin-scale study suggests that dreissenid mussel invasion can be associated with alterations in the spatial pattern of water column properties in large lakes even on open coasts with vigorous circulation and exchange.     

The effect of Lake Erie water level variations on sediment resuspension

Variability in Lake Erie water levels results in variations of the fluid forces applied to the lake bed by free-surface gravity wind-waves. An increase in the bed stress may re-suspend sediment deposited years earlier. This study identifies areas of possible non-cohesive sediment mobilization in response to the forcing conditions and water levels present in Lake Erie. Observations from NOAA buoy 45005 were used to identify wave events generated by a variety of atmospheric forcing conditions. For each event, numerical predictions of significant wave height, wave period, and water level from the Great Lakes Forecasting System (GLFS) were used to characterize the wave event variability over the lake. The Shields parameter was estimated at each 2 km × 2 km grid cell with the local wave forcing as predicted by GLFS assuming an estimate of the wave-induced friction factor. In the Cleveland harbor region of the central basin, the Shields parameter was also estimated by assuming uniform wave conditions as observed by NOAA buoy 45005. The “contour of incipient motion” for both variable and uniform wave events was defined as the offshore contour where the Shields parameter exceeds the critical limit for motion. Comparisons with a radiometrically corrected image from Landsat-7 showed that the spatially varying wave events from GLFS were in qualitative agreement with the satellite observations. A sensitivity analysis of wave height, wave period, and grain size showed the contour of incipient motion to be the most sensitive to wave period. Calculations performed for record high and low water levels showed that the incipient motion of non-cohesive sediments in the relatively flat central basin to be the most sensitive to the historic hydrologic variability present in Lake Erie.     

Glyphosate influence on phytoplankton community structure in Lake Erie

In this study we investigated the effect of the phosphonate herbicide glyphosate (N-(phosphonomethyl)glycine) on the phytoplankton community structure in Lake Erie using lake water incubations, laboratory growth experiments and phylogenetic analysis of phosphonate metabolism genes. In microcosms, addition of glyphosate to Sandusky Bay water resulted in a significant increase in phytoplankton abundance, specifically causing an increase in the abundance of Planktothrix spp. In microcosms using Maumee Bay water, glyphosate did not stimulate phytoplankton growth but caused a decrease in Microcystis spp. abundance. The difference in the ability of Planktothrix spp. and Microcystis spp. to grow in the presence of glyphosate was confirmed in laboratory growth experiments. Further, an examination of the molecular pathways involved in phosphonate metabolism demonstrated that heterotrophic bacteria may be critical in allowing this proliferation. The results indicate that glyphosate has both positive and negative influences on phytoplankton community structure, serving as a nutrient source to microbes able to tolerate the herbicidal effects of the compound while killing those less tolerant. Moreover, this work highlights that in natural environments microorganisms function as communities, and the metabolic abilities of individual species are often less important than the collective ability of the community.     

Application of distance sampling techniques for diving ducks on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie

Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie are important migration staging areas for diving ducks including canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria), redheads (Aythya americana), and lesser and greater scaup (Aythya affinis and Aythya marila). Starting in 1983, the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) attempted to census diving ducks on the United States portion of Lake St. Clair throughout autumn migration; however, in 2010 the MDNR expanded the traditionally surveyed area to include all of Lake St. Clair and a portion of western Lake Erie. The idea of achieving a census over the expanded study area was unrealistic, and instead distance sampling techniques were adopted in an effort to generate statistically valid estimates of detection probabilities and abundances for diving ducks during spring and autumn migration. We found distance sampling techniques to be a viable option for estimating diving duck abundance as long as flock size is accounted for as a covariate affecting the detection function. Diving ducks were generally more abundant on our study area during autumn migration with a mean of 306,327 ducks/survey (SE = 40,729) compared to an average spring abundance of 91,053 ducks/survey (SE = 19,175). Peak abundance occurred on 20 November 2012 with an estimated 596,335 diving ducks on Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie. Ultimately, our methodology could be used to establish long-term, standardized data collection techniques and applied to conservation planning for waterfowl in the Great Lakes region.     

A simple 1-dimensional,climate based dissolved oxygen model for the central basin of Lake Erie

A linked 1-dimensional thermal-dissolved oxygen model was developed and applied in the central basin of Lake Erie. The model was used to quantify the relative contribution of meteorological forcings versus the decomposition of hypolimnetic organic carbon on dissolved oxygen. The model computes daily vertical profiles of temperature, mixing, and dissolved oxygen for the period 1987–2005. Model calibration resulted in good agreement with observations of the thermal structure and oxygen concentrations throughout the period of study. The only calibration parameter, water column oxygen demand (WCOD), varied significantly across years. No significant relationships were found between these rates and the thermal properties; however, there was a significant correlation with soluble reactive phosphorus loading. These results indicate that climate variability alone, expressed as changes in thermal structure, does not account for the inter-annual variation in hypoxia. Rather, variation in the production of organic matter is a dominant driver, and this appears to have been responsive to changes in phosphorus loads.     

Observations of Sediment Transport in Lake Erie during the Winter of 2004–2005

Time series measurements of current velocity, wave action, and water transparency were made at two sites—one in 24 m of water and the other in 53 m—in Lake Erie during the fall and winter of 2004–2005. The observations at the shallow site show that bottom resuspension occurred several times during the deployment. Although local resuspension did not occur at the deeper station, several advection episodes were observed. The storms during the observation period were not unusually large, so the processes observed are probably typical of those that occur on a yearly basis. The observations agree reasonably well with previous estimates for both the bottom shear stress during storms, and for the critical shear stress needed to resuspend bottom sediment, but previous estimates of the particle settling velocity are probably too low, while previous estimates of the sediment entrainment rate are too high. The results show that bottom material in the central basin is reworked numerous times before it is finally buried. Deposition in the eastern basin is a more continuous process, but the events observed were not sufficient to match the long-term accumulation rate, so deposition at this site is probably also due in part to larger, more infrequent storms.     

Spatial and temporal variability of inherent and apparent optical properties in western Lake Erie: Implications for water quality remote sensing

Lake Erie has experienced dramatic changes in water quality over the past several decades requiring extensive monitoring to assess effectiveness of adaptive management strategies. Remote sensing offers a unique potential to provide synoptic monitoring at daily time scales complementing in-situ sampling activities occurring in Lake Erie. Bio-optical remote sensing algorithms require knowledge about the inherent optical properties (IOPs) of the water for parameterization to produce robust water quality products. This study reports new IOP and apparent optical property (AOP) datasets for western Lake Erie that encapsulate the May–October period for 2015 and 2016 at weekly sampling intervals. Previously reported IOP and AOP observations have been temporally limited and have not assessed statistical differences between IOPs over spatial and temporal gradients. The objective of this study is to assess trends in IOPs over variable spatial and temporal scales. Large spatio-temporal variability in IOPs was observed between 2015 and 2016 likely due to the difference in the extent and duration of mid-summer cyanobacteria blooms. Differences in the seasonal trends of the specific phytoplankton absorption coefficient between 2015 and 2016 suggest differing algal assemblages between the years. Other IOP variables, including chromophoric, dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and beam attenuation spectral slopes, suggest variability is influenced by river discharge and sediment re-suspension. The datasets presented in this study show how these IOPs and AOPs change over a season and between years, and are useful in advancing the applicability and robustness of remote sensing methods to retrieve water quality information in western Lake Erie.     

Long-term dynamics of Lake Erie benthos: One lake,three distinct communities

Lake Erie has experienced multiple anthropogenic-driven changes in the past century, including cultural eutrophication, phosphorus abatement initiatives, and the introduction of invasive species. The benthos of Lake Erie has been studied infrequently over nine decades and can provide not only insights into the impact of environmental changes but can also be used to examine ecosystem recovery through time. We used multivariate analyses to examine temporal changes in community composition and to assess the major drivers of long-term changes in benthos. Eutrophication, water quality improvement, and dreissenid introduction were the major drivers of changes in benthos in the western basin, while hypoxia was a major factor in the central basin, and dreissenid introduction was most important in the eastern basin. Non-dreissenid community composition of the western basin has changed dramatically over 90 years from benthic species indicative of good water quality in the 1930s, with a diverse community dominated by Hexagenia, to one of low diversity dominated by oligochaetes and other pollution-tolerant species in the 1960s, followed by recovery in the early 2000s to a state similar to that reported in 1930. In contrast, the non-dreissenid benthic community of the central basin over 60 years was consistently dominated by low oxygen-tolerant taxa, signifying the persistence of hypoxia, the major community driver in this basin. The eastern basin community also changed dramatically, including the disappearance of Diporeia after the introduction of Dreissena in the 1990s and more recent declines in oligochaetes, amphipods, gastropods, sphaeriid clams, and leeches.     

On hypoxia and fish kills along the north shore of Lake Erie

Hypoxia is a common feature in the offshore central basin of Lake Erie. In the late summer of 2012, a strong wind-induced upwelling event transported oxygen depleted water to the nearshore zones of northern Lake Erie. Wind speed, duration and direction relative to the shoreline of individual wind events determined the extent of nearshore zone affected by the hypoxic waters. The upwelling event resulted in adverse water quality along some stretches of the northern shoreline of Lake Erie with persistent anoxia, which was mainly responsible for the mortality of fish.     

Cyanotoxin transport from surface water to groundwater: Simulation scenarios for Lake Erie

Harmful algal bloom (HAB) and cyanotoxin studies in the Great Lakes region have been typically focused on surface-water issues, with few investigating or reporting on groundwater. This study aims to theoretically explore whether groundwater can be contaminated by microcystins from HABs in surface water due to surface-water and groundwater interaction. Specifically, a 3-D MODFLOW/MT3DMS model was developed to simulate pumping-induced reverse groundwater flow and solute transport from Lake Erie to the aquifer underneath the South Bass Island in Ohio. Our simulation results based on typical, base case settings showed that after microcystins were detected and released from the lake, it would take about two, three, and 13 months for the water in a well on the island to reach the EPA advisory levels of microcystin for detection (0.1 µg/l), infants and children (0.3 μg/l), and school-age children to adults (1.6 μg/l), respectively. Furthermore, our scenario analyses showed that, as expected, higher pumping rate and higher lakebed leakance would accelerate the microcystin transport to the well. However, higher hydraulic conductivity would increase the time to reach the EPA levels due to mixing and dilution effects. The 3-D modeling scheme developed in this study was suitable to simulate the complex surface-water and groundwater interaction and transport processes occurring in the Great Lakes. This theoretical study provides useful insight for managing coastal groundwater aquifers and resources under threat from HABs in the Great Lakes. Future improvements to the model would include incorporating reactions and fractures and obtaining water-quality data for model calibration.     

The relative importance of anammox and denitrification to total N2 production in Lake Erie

Production of dinitrogen gas via microbially mediated anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) and denitrification plays an important role in removal of fixed N from aquatic ecosystems. Here, we investigated anammox and denitrification potentials via the ¹⁵N isotope pairing technique in the helium flushed bottom water (~0.2 m above the sediment) of Sandusky Bay, Sandusky Subbasin, and Central Basin in Lake Erie in three consecutive summers (2010?2012). Potential rates of anammox (0–922 nM/day) and denitrification (1 to 355 nM/day) varied greatly among sampling sites during the 3 years we studied. The relative importance of anammox to total N₂ production potentially ranged from 0 to 100% and varied temporally and spatially. Our study represents one of the first efforts to measure potential activities of both anammox and denitrification in the water column of Lake Erie and our results indicate the Central Basin of Lake Erie is a hot spot for N removal through anammox and denitrification activities. Further, our data indicate that the water column, specifically hypolimnion, and the surface sediment of the Lake Erie Central Basin are comparatively important for microbially mediated N removal.     

A Bayesian assessment of the PCB temporal trends in Lake Erie fish communities

The temporal trends of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Lake Erie fish were evaluated using 30 years of fish contaminant data (1977–2007). The first step of our statistical analysis was based on simple exponential decay models parameterized with Bayesian inference techniques to assess the declining rates in four intensively sampled fish species, i.e., walleye (Stizostedion vitreum), coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and white bass (Morone chrysops). Because the exponential model postulates monotonic decrease of the PCB levels, we included first- or second-order random error terms in our statistical formulations to accommodate non-monotonic patterns in the dataset studied. Generally, our results suggest that the PCBs have been decreasing over the last 30 years with relatively weak rates that vary among the different fish species examined. Yet, our analysis with the exponential decay model also identified an increasing trend in the PCB concentrations of walleye skinless–boneless filet data, which is manifested after the mid-90s. In the second step, we used dynamic linear modeling (DLM) analysis to account for the fact that the fish length covaries with the PCB concentrations and that different sized fish may have been sampled over time. Our DLM analysis suggests that the previously reported trend of the walleye filet data is actually an artifact associated with the bias of the fish sampling practices followed. The coho salmon and rainbow trout PCB concentrations have been decreasing steadily during the study period but the associated rates were relatively weak. Finally, the PCB trends in white bass appear to have been stabilized over that last decade, although the robustness of this result remains to be confirmed due to the temporal inconsistencies of the information used. We conclude by emphasizing the importance of explicitly accounting for the different covariates (e.g., length, age, lipid content) that can potentially hamper the detection of the actual temporal trends of fish contaminants.     

Sediment Oxygen Demand in the Central Basin of Lake Erie

Three separate procedures were used to estimate the sediment oxygen demand (SOD) in the central basin of Lake Erie and were compared with other estimates determined previously and with historical data. First, whole core incubations involved sealing sediment cores at 12°C to ensure no interaction between the overlying water and the atmosphere and monitoring continuously to define the linear disappearance of oxygen. Second, sediment plugs were placed inside flow-through reactors and the influent and effluent concentrations were monitored to obtain steady-state reaction rates. Third, an extensive data set for the central basin of Lake Erie was compiled for input into the diagenetic BRNS model, and the SOD was calculated assuming all primary redox reactions, but no secondary reactions. All three procedures produced estimates of SOD that were in reasonable agreement with each other. Whole core incubations yield an average SOD of 7.40 × 10⁻¹² moles/cm²/sec, the flow-through experiments had an average SOD of 4.04 × 10⁻¹² moles/cm²/sec, and the BRNS model predicts an SOD of 7.87 × 10⁻¹² moles/cm²/sec over the top 10 cm of sediment and appears to be calibrated reasonably well to the conditions of the central basin of Lake Erie. These values compare reasonably well with the 8.29 × 10⁻¹² moles/cm²/sec obtained from diffusion modeling of oxygen profiles (Matisoff and Neeson 2005). In contrast, values reported from the 1960s to 1980s ranged from 10.5–32.1 × 10⁻¹² moles/cm²/sec suggesting that the SOD of the central basin has decreased over the last 35 years, presumably, in response to the decrease in phosphorus loadings to Lake Erie. However, since hypoxia in the hypolimnion persists these results suggest that improvement in hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations may lag decreases in loadings or that the hypolimnion in the central basin of Lake Erie is simply too thin to avoid summer hypoxia during most years.     

Characterizations of individual suspended mineral particles in western Lake Erie: Implications for light scattering and water clarity

Light-scattering attributes of minerogenic particles from the water column of the western basin of Lake Erie (13 sites, plus one from the central basin and one from Sandusky Bay), collected after a wind event, were characterized by scanning electron microscopy interfaced with automated image and X-ray analyses (SAX). SAX results specified scattering attributes for individual particles, including size and chemical composition, and were used in forward Mie theory calculations of minerogenic scattering and backscattering coefficients (b_m and b_b,m). Clay mineral particles, in the size range of 1–20 μm, were the dominant form of minerogenic scattering, representing > 75% of b_m and b_b,m. Levels of b_m and b_b,m were high in the western basin, apparently in part due to wind-driven sediment resuspension, and wide spatial variability was observed. The credibility of the SAX-Mie estimates of b_m and b_b,m was supported by the extent of optical closure obtained with paired bulk measurements of particulate scattering and backscattering coefficients (b_p and b_bp), and independent estimates of organic particle contributions based on empirical bio-optical models. Minerogenic particles dominated b_p and particularly b_bp, and regulated spatial differences in the related common metrics of optical water quality, including turbidity and clarity. The b_bp:b_p ratio was found to be a good predictor of the spatial differences in the relative contributions of minerogenic particles versus phytoplankton to scattering.     

Extending the forecast model: Predicting Western Lake Erie harmful algal blooms at multiple spatial scales

Lake Erie is a classic case of development, recovery from, and return to eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Forecast models are used annually to predict bloom intensity for the whole Western Lake Erie Basin, but do not necessarily reflect nearshore conditions or regional variations, which are important for local stakeholders. In this study we: 1) developed relationships between observed whole basin and nearshore bloom sizes, and 2) updated and extended a Bayesian seasonal bloom forecast model to provide new regional predictions. The western basin was subdivided into 5 km near-shore regions, and bloom start date, size, and intensity were quantified with MODIS-derived images of chlorophyll concentrations for July–October 2002–2016 for each subdivision and for the entire basin. While bloom severity within each subdivision is temporally and spatially unique, it increased over the study period in each subdivision. The models for the 5 km subdivisions explained between 83 and 95% of variability between regional sizes and whole bloom size for US subdivisions and 51% for the Canadian subdivision. By linking predictive basin-wide models to regional regression estimates, we are now able to better predict potential bloom impacts at scales and in specific areas that are vital to the economic well-being of the region and allow for better management responses.     

Examination of temporal DDT trends in Lake Erie fish communities using dynamic linear modeling

The industrial pesticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) was initially heralded for its effectiveness against malaria and agricultural pests, but was eventually banned in North America during the 1970s due to growing concerns about its detrimental impacts on wildlife. Despite the successful termination of its commercial application, the persistent and bioaccumulative nature of DDT has resulted in lingering concentrations in aquatic food webs, particularly in upper trophic-level fish species. In this study, we used dynamic linear modeling to examine temporal trends of four DDT compounds (p,p′-DDT, o,p′-DDT, p,p′-DDE, and p,p′-DDD) in nine fish species in Lake Erie from 1976 to 2007, while considering both fish length and lipid content as covariates. Our results indicate that the levels of both p,p′-DDT and o,p′-DDT have been decreasing, often to the detection limit, with slowing decline rates during the second half of the study period. The p,p′-DDE levels were much more variable, exhibiting large fluctuations through time (though usually with a net downward trajectory), with the annual rates of change of the corresponding concentrations remaining negative or (more recently) near zero. Similarly, p,p′-DDD levels fluctuated (though to a lesser degree) over time, with gradually slowing decline rates in many fish species, such as smallmouth bass and freshwater drum. The results are in agreement with our understanding that DDE and DDD are degradation products of p,p′-DDT, and thus continue to be produced, as DDT is broken down. Declining trends observed for nearly all congeners and fish species indicate reduction of DDT risks in the Lake Erie fish communities.