Revisiting the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement phosphorus targets and predicting the trophic status of Lake Michigan

LM3-Eutro is a high-resolution eutrophication model with several improved features lacking in historical Great Lakes models. We calibrated LM3-Eutro using a 2-year (1994-1995) dataset and performed a hindcast simulation from 1976 to 1995 to evaluate the model's ability to make predictions over an extended period of time. Results show a reasonable agreement between model output and field data over this time period. The model predicted that an annual loading of 5600 metric tons (MT) would result in a lake-wide annual total phosphorus (TP) concentration of 7.5 μg L^− 1. Using best estimates of future TP loadings, LM3-Eutro forecasts suggest that Lake Michigan will remain oligotrophic and will continue to meet the 7 μg L^− 1 spring TP concentration Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement objective.     

An appraisal of the Great Lakes advanced hydrologic prediction system

Great Lakes water level forecasts are used to inform decisions ranging from personal choices of recreational activities to corporate evaluations of alternative cargo transport options. For effective decision-making it is important that these model-based forecasts include an accurate expression of the forecast uncertainty, as well as information regarding the model forecasting skill. We provide an assessment of water level forecasts from 1997 through 2009 that were made using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS). A visual comparison between observed and forecast water levels suggests that AHPS generally captures seasonal and inter-annual patterns. A more quantitative assessment based on the percentage of observations within 90% prediction intervals, however, indicates that AHPS generally underestimates the observed variability of Great Lakes water levels. This assessment provides a benchmark for forecast performance against which alternative model structures (including future evolutions of AHPS) can be tested, and a basis to identify and prioritize the implementation of those alternatives. Including a calibrated model error term into the AHPS framework, to accommodate the underestimated variability, is a priority for short-term development and research, and represents one step toward more accurately quantifying forecast uncertainty. Our results also underscore the importance of storing historical forecasts and the data from which they were derived to serve as a basis for assessing model performance and prioritizing future model improvements.     

Opportunities for bipartisanship: Comparing water and energy policy in the Great Lakes region

The Great Lakes contain most of the United States’ surface freshwater and provide deep personal and economic connections for the residents of the region. These connections create an opportunity for bipartisanship in environmental policies with the potential to permeate energy policies. To explore that possibility, this paper examines how party affiliation affects support for water policy and energy policy in the Great Lakes region of the United States. Data from the Great Lakes Region Public Opinion Survey asked 696 Republicans, Independents, and Democrats from the Great Lakes region to respond to a range of environmental policy prompts. Responses to the policy prompts are grouped into four components: Water Quality, Water Diversions, Traditional Fuels, and Renewables. The results find that there is bipartisan support for the Water Quality and Water Diversions components. Energy policies do not receive the same bipartisan support, with Democrats and Independents having more support for the Renewables component while Republicans have more support for the Traditional Fuels component. However, when the fuel source is tied to its pollutants of the Great Lakes, then reactions to that fuel source receive a bipartisan response. The results of this research suggest that embedding water policy in energy policy may allow those policies to receive more bipartisan support. Combining water policy and energy policy can depolarize some of the politics surrounding environmental policy broadly.     

Automated Mapping of Surface Water Temperature in the Great Lakes

A procedure for producing daily cloud-free maps of surface water temperature in the Great Lakes has been developed. It is based on satellite-derived AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) imagery from NOAA's CoastWatch program. The maps have a nominal resolution of 2.6 km and provide as complete as possible coverage of the Great Lakes on a daily basis by using previous imagery to estimate temperatures in cloud covered areas. Surface water temperature estimates derived from this procedure compare well with water temperatures measured at the eight NOAA weather buoys in the lakes. The mean difference between the buoy temperature and the satellite-derived temperature estimates is less than 0.5°C for all buoys. The root mean square differences range from 1.10 to 1.76°C.As one example of the possible applications of this product, the daily surface water temperature maps for 1992 to 1997 were analyzed to produce daily estimates of average surface water temperature for each lake. Results are compared to the long-term (28 year) mean annual cycle of average surface water temperatures. The average surface water temperatures vary from as much as 4°C below climatology in 1993 to 2 to 3°C above climatology in 1995. The new analysis procedure also provides a more realistic depiction of the spatial distribution of temperature in the springtime than the climatological maps.     

Building a research network to better understand climate governance in the Great Lakes

Climate-driven disturbances threaten the sustainability of coastal communities in the Great Lakes Basin. Because such disturbances are unpredictable, their magnitude, number and intensity are changing, and they occur at varying temporal and spatial scales. Consequently, communities struggle to respond in effective ways. The expected intensification of climate-driven disturbances will require that community capacity and governance structures match the spatial and temporal scales of these disturbances, as the most sustainable social and economic systems will be those that can respond at similar frequencies to key natural system drivers. The Climate Governance Variability in the Great Lakes Research Coordination Network (CGVG-RCN) was recently established to address questions about the relationship between climate-driven disturbances and community response. The objective of this short communication is to introduce the ideas behind the CGVG-RCN, outline its goals, and facilitate engagements and collaboration with social and natural scientists interested in social-ecological systems in the Great Lakes Basin.     

Toxaphene trends in the Great Lakes fish

As part of the U.S. Great Lakes Fish Monitoring and Surveillance Program (GLFMSP), more than 300 lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and walleye (Stizostedion vitreum vitreum) collected from the Laurentian Great Lakes each year from 2004 to 2009, have been analyzed for total toxaphene and eight selected congeners. The analytical results show fish toxaphene concentrations are quite different among lakes. Between 2004 and 2009, Lake Superior lake trout had the highest concentration (119 to 482 ng/g) and Lake Erie walleye had the lowest concentration (18 to 47 ng/g). Combining these results with the historical total toxaphene data (1977–2003), temporal changes were examined for each lake. Because of different analytical methods used in the previous studies, the historical data were adjusted using a factor of 0.56 based on a previous inter-method comparison in our laboratory. Trend analysis using an exponential decay regression showed that toxaphene in Great Lakes fish exhibited a significant decrease in all of the lakes with t_1/2 (confidence interval) of 0.9 (0.8–1.1) years for Lake Erie walleye, 3.8 (3.5–4.1) years for Lake Huron lake trout, 5.6 (5.1–6.1) years for Lake Michigan lake trout, 7.5 (6.7–8.4) years for Lake Ontario lake trout and 10.1 (8.2–13.2) years for Lake Superior lake trout. Parlars 26, 50 and 62 were the dominant toxaphene congeners accounting for 0.53% to 41.7% of the total toxaphene concentration. Concentrations of these congeners generally also decreased over time.     

Analysis of changes in the Great Lakes hydro-climatic variables

A study of changes in hydro-climatology of the Great Lakes was performed incorporating the nonparametric Mann–Kendall trend detection test and a recently developed Bayesian multiple change point detection model. The Component Net Basin Supply (C-NBS) and its components (runoff, precipitation, evaporation) as well as water levels of Great Lakes were analyzed for gradual (i.e. trend type) and abrupt (i.e. shift type) nonstationary behaviors at seasonal and annual scales. It was found that the C-NBS experienced significant upward trends only in the lower Great Lakes (Erie, Ontario) during the summer portion of the year. At an annual scale upward trends were observed only in Lake Ontario. Change point analysis suggested an upward shift in Great Lakes C-NBS in the late 1960s and early 1970s. A combination of gradual and abrupt change analysis of Great Lakes water levels indicated a common upward shift along with a change in trend direction around the early 1970s. It was also found that precipitation and runoff are on a plateau and in some cases on a decreasing course following an increasing trend in the early twentieth century. Results obtained from this study show that the hydro-climatology of Great Lakes is characterized by nonstationary behavior. Changes in this behavior have caused the Great Lakes water levels to decrease during the last few decades. This study provides valuable insights into the nature of the nonstationary behavior of hydro-climatic variables of Great Lakes and contributes useful information to the future water management planning.     

The flathead catfish invasion of the Great Lakes

A detailed review of historical literature and museum data revealed that flathead catfish were not historically native in the Great Lakes Basin, with the possible exception of a relict population in Lake Erie. The species has invaded Lake Erie, Lake St. Clair, Lake Huron, nearly all drainages in Michigan, and the Fox/Wolf and Milwaukee drainages in Wisconsin. They have not been collected from Lake Superior yet, and the temperature suitability of that lake is questionable. Flathead catfish have been stocked sparingly in the Great Lakes and is not the mechanism responsible for their spread. A stocking in 1968 in Ohio may be one exception to this. Dispersal resulted from both natural range expansions and unauthorized introductions. The invasion is ongoing, with the species invading both from the east and the west to meet in northern Lake Michigan. Much of this invasion has likely taken place since the 1990s. This species has been documented to have significant impacts on native fishes in other areas where it has been introduced; therefore, educating the public not to release them into new waters is important. Frequent monitoring of rivers and lakes for the presence of this species would detect new populations early so that management actions could be utilized on new populations if desired.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater in the Great Lakes Basin: A review

Climate change has the potential to alter the physical and chemical properties of water in the Great Lakes Basin, in turn impacting ecological function. This study synthesizes existing research associated with the potential effects of a changing climate on the quality and quantity of groundwater in the Great Lakes Basin. It includes analyses of impacts on (1) recharge, (2) groundwater storage, (3) discharge and groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions, (4) exacerbating future urban development impacts on groundwater, (5) groundwater quality, and (6) ecohydrology.Large spatial and temporal (i.e., seasonal) variability in groundwater response to climate change between regions is anticipated. Most studies combine field observations with modelling, but many have focused only on small/medium basins. At these small scales, groundwater systems are generally projected to be fairly resilient to climate change impacts. However, modelling studies of larger basins (e.g., Grand River, Saginaw Bay, Maumee River) predict an increase in groundwater storage. Uncertainty in model simulations, particularly from climate models that are used to force hydrological models, is a major challenge. There have been too few studies to date that investigate the interplay of climate change and groundwater quality in the Great Lakes Basin to draw conclusions about future groundwater quality and ecohydrology.A summary of methods, models, and technology is provided. Model uncertainty has become an increasingly important topic and is also discussed. The study concludes with a synthesis of the main science needs to understand groundwater impacts in order to adapt to a changing climate in the Great Lakes Basin.     

Environmental predictors of phytoplankton chlorophyll-a in Great Lakes coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes are diverse and productive ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services, but are threatened by anthropogenic factors, including nutrient input, land-use change, invasive species, and climate change. In this study, we examined one component of wetland ecosystem structure – phytoplankton biomass – using the proxy metric of water column chlorophyll-a measured in 514 coastal wetlands across all five Great Lakes as part of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Monitoring Program. Mean chlorophyll-a concentrations increased from north-to-south from Lake Superior to Lake Erie, but concentrations varied among sites within lakes. To predict chlorophyll-a concentrations, we developed two random forest models for each lake – one using variables that may directly relate to phytoplankton biomass (“proximate” variables; e.g., dissolved nutrients, temperature, pH) and another using variables with potentially indirect effects on phytoplankton growth (“distal” variables; e.g., land use, fetch). Proximate and distal variable models explained 16–43% and 19–48% of variation in chlorophyll-a, respectively, with models developed for lakes Erie and Michigan having the highest amount of explanatory power and models developed for lakes Ontario, Superior, and Huron having the lowest. Land-use variables were important distal predictors of chlorophyll-a concentrations across all lakes. We found multiple proximate predictors of chlorophyll-a, but there was little consistency among lakes, suggesting that, while chlorophyll-a may be broadly influenced by distal factors such as land use, individual lakes and wetlands have unique characteristics that affect chlorophyll-a concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of responsible land-use planning and watershed-level management for protecting coastal wetlands.     

An ecological assessment of Great Lakes tributaries in the Michigan Peninsulas

Michigan stream fish and macroinvertebrate community data from multiple sources were combined to conduct a statewide assessment of riverine ecological condition. Using regionally normalized metrics to correct for methodological inconsistencies and natural variation and statistically based scoring criteria, about 50% of all sampled sites were in expected or better ecological condition, 30% were ecologically impaired, and 20% were marginal. Structural Equation Modeling with this regional assessment dataset indicated that land use effects were more important than effects of point-source discharges. Biological metrics appeared to be more sensitive to urban than agricultural land use, and riparian than basin-wide agricultural land use. Invertebrate communities were marginally more sensitive than fish communities to the suite of anthropogenic stressors examined. Using the observed assessment status from sampled sites, Classification and Regression Tree models were used to estimate ecological condition in the state's remaining unsampled river segments. Combining observed and estimated site scores, 25% of the state's river kms were estimated to be impaired, with the Erie and St. Clair basins having the highest degree of impairment (52% and 44% of total channel lengths, respectively) and lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron basins had the lowest degree of impairment at 4%, 21% and 31%, respectively. We argue that correlations between the state of the Great Lakes and the ecological conditions of their tributary systems reflect both direct impact transmission from watershed to receiving waters, and also non-causal correlation due to shared anthropogenic stressors.     

Tritium in Laurentian Great Lakes surface waters

A basin-wide water quality survey for the radionuclide tritium during 2017 and 2019 provides an overview of levels in Great Lakes surface waters. All data, together with those from similar basin-wide surveys since the early 1990s, are included in the Supplemental Material. Values of tritium are lowest in Lake Superior and are highest within a region of northwestern Lake Ontario, as well as locally near a known source in Lake Huron. Twenty-year trends show declines in all of the lakes, and this is consistent with the decline in fallout from past nuclear weapons testing, the major source of tritium to the lakes. Longer-term trends, developed using values from the literature, demonstrate a marked overall reduction in tritium values since maxima in the late 1960s, with a slowing rate of decline in the most recent decade. As atmospheric fallout is reduced, the relative importance of other sources is increasing. Known releases, primarily from nuclear generating stations using heavy water, could therefore drive any future changes in Great Lakes tritium levels.     

Impacts on biodiversity and species changes in the lower Great Lakes

The Great Lakes basin ecosystem evolved after the retreat of the last ice sheet, about 10 000 years ago. Today, the complex of species present in the Great Lakes and much of the visible landscape bears little resemblance to that found some 400 years ago. Rather, the effects of various aspects of human development have caused major changes in the natural biodiversity. Lessons learned in the lower Great Lakes are applicable to many lakes around the world that have undergone agricultural, industrial and urban development in their drainage basins and have become managed, artificial ecosystems.     

Initial insights into the development and implementation of a citizen-science drone-based coastal change monitoring program in the Great Lakes region

High-resolution spatio-temporal data are needed to improve coastal management programs, particularly along the Great Lakes where lake level fluctuations pose challenges to coastal decision-making and planning. Unfortunately, there is a paucity of coastal change monitoring datasets, particularly those that document event-scale changes over a large spatial scale. This paucity of data is compounded by the large size and range of shore types throughout the region.Unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) or drone data collected by citizen scientists are a potential solution to this challenge. However, no citizen science coastal change monitoring program exists in the Great Lakes region, nor does a comprehensive drone-based coastal change monitoring programs exist anywhere in the United States. To inform the development of drone-based citizen science programs, the goal of this paper is to describe the development and implementation of a citizen science coastal change monitoring program along the Great Lakes shores of Michigan. The citizens participating in this project generate imagery in two ways: (1) the submission of photos of coastal changes or hazards via a web app developed for the project called PicShores and (2) drone collection of survey-quality aerial imagery for use in the generation of orthomosaic images and digital elevation models (DEMs). This paper presents the methods utilized to develop the citizen science monitoring program, some initial findings from the citizen science monitoring, and explores some challenges and next steps for the program.     

Exploring market-based environmental policy for groundwater management and ecosystem protection for the Great Lakes region: Lessons learned

The Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact (the Compact) was created to protect future water supplies and aquatic ecosystems in the Great Lakes. The Compact requires the eight Great Lakes state to regulate, among other things, large withdrawals of groundwater and surface water so that they do not negatively affect stream flows and ecosystems within the Great Lakes Basin. Thus, the Compact raises the possibility of increased restrictions on groundwater withdrawals in many locations throughout the Great Lakes region. However, restricting withdrawals is likely to encounter opposition from water users when such restrictions are viewed as an infringement on existing water use rights and/or as negatively impacting local economic development. Such conflicts could hinder effective implementation of state and regional water policy. This paper explores the application of a market-based environmental management tool called “Conservation Credit Offsets Trading (CCOT)” that could facilitate allocation of groundwater withdrawals, and develops a framework for guiding the implementation of CCOT within the context of a groundwater permitting system. Using a watershed in southwestern Michigan, this study demonstrates how bio-physical information and input from various local stakeholders were combined to aid groundwater policy designed to achieve the objective of no net (adverse) impact on stream ecosystems. By allowing flexibility through trading of conservation credit offsets, this groundwater policy tool appears to be more politically acceptable than traditional, less flexible, regulations. The results and discussion provide useful lessons learned with relevance to other areas in the Great Lakes Basin.     

Assessment of nitrogen fixation rates in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Nitrogen fixation (N_Fix) is an important, yet understudied, microbial process in aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL). To date, a dearth of nitrogen fixation rate measurements exists in the LGL, are from temporally isolated studies, and were collected primarily from near-shore and surface water environments. Evidence of nitrogen accumulation across the Laurentian Great Lakes suggest that we do not have a firm grasp on nitrogen cycling in large lakes. Thus, we sought to quantify the spatial variability of N_Fix in the LGL. We found lakes are significantly different in N_Fix rates from one another and that rates are depth dependent. Overall mean surface N_Fix rates of Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie and Ontario were 0.024, 0.020, 0.069, 0.145, and 0.078 (nmol N₂/L/hr), respectively. Likewise, we found the Western, Central and Eastern basins of Lake Erie are significantly different in N_Fix rates (0.1540, 0.1032, 0.0738 nmol N₂/L/hr). However, we found no significant difference in N_Fix rates between near and offshore sites in Lake Erie, which may have been biased due to a cyanobacterial bloom containing a nitrogen-fixing Dolichospermum sp. Linear regression models indicate N_Fix is generally positively correlated with chlorophyll-a concentration and negatively correlated with oxidized nitrogen species concentrations. However, Lakes Erie and Huron exhibited a positive linear relationship with oxidized nitrogen, suggesting that N_Fix may persist to meet cellular and community nitrogen demands. Together, our data highlight N_Fix is important despite the presence of abundant nitrogen in all LGL.     

Changes in mid-summer water temperature and clarity across the Great Lakes between 1968 and 2002

In recent decades, three important events have likely played a role in changing the water temperature and clarity of the Laurentian Great Lakes: 1) warmer climate, 2) reduced phosphorus loading, and 3) invasion by European Dreissenid mussels. This paper compiled environmental data from government agencies monitoring the middle and lower portions of the Great Lakes basin (lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario) to document changes in aquatic environments between 1968 and 2002. Over this 34-year period, mean annual air temperature increased at an average rate of 0.037 °C/y, resulting in a 1.3 °C increase. Surface water temperature during August has been rising at annual rates of 0.084 °C (Lake Huron) and 0.048 °C (Lake Ontario) resulting in increases of 2.9 °C and 1.6 °C, respectively. In Lake Erie, the trend was also positive, but it was smaller and not significant. Water clarity, measured here by August Secchi depth, increased in all lakes. Secchi depth increased 1.7 m in Lake Huron, 3.1 m in Lake Ontario and 2.4 m in Lake Erie. Prior to the invasion of Dreissenid mussels, increases in Secchi depth were significant (p < 0.05) in lakes Erie and Ontario, suggesting that phosphorus abatement aided water clarity. After Dreissenid mussel invasion, significant increases in Secchi depth were detected in lakes Ontario and Huron.     

Alkalinity,pH, and pCO2 in the Laurentian Great Lakes: An initial view of seasonal and inter-annual trends

Ongoing human perturbations to the global inorganic carbon cycle can cause various changes in the pH and alkalinity of aquatic systems. Here seasonal and inter-annual trends in these variables were investigated in the five Laurentian Great Lakes using data from the U.S. EPA GLENDA database. These observations, along with temperature, were also used to predict the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in surface water (pCO₂). There are strong seasonal differences in pH in all five lakes, with higher pH levels in summer than in spring. All lakes show significantly higher pCO₂ values in spring than in summer. Michigan and Ontario show higher alkalinity values in spring; Huron shows lower spring values. Inter-annually, open-lake pH shows the highest values in all lakes around 2010, the time frame of lowest lake water levels, though only lakes Superior and Erie show statistically significant inflection points at that time. Inter-annual alkalinity trends differ considerably from those of pH. Superior’s alkalinity increases until ～2008 and then begins dropping; Ontario’s alkalinity decreases until ～2004 and then begins increasing, with the decrease coinciding with the introduction and establishment of Dreissenid mussels. The other lakes show much less clear inter-annual alkalinity trends. For pCO₂, inter-annual trends in each lake show either increases from 1992 to 2019 (for Superior, Michigan, and Huron) or shifts from slightly decreasing values to increasing values for the other lakes. The timing of this shift is from 2008 to 2010.     

Predicted Atrazine Concentrations in the Great Lakes: Implications for Biological Effects

Atrazine is an herbicide used extensively throughout the Midwest corn belt, including the agricultural regions within the Great Lakes basin watershed. Measurements of atrazine concentrations in the Great Lakes are few, however, so knowledge of its current concentrations, persistence, and trends in this ecosystem is limited. A dynamic annual time step model was used to predict atrazine concentrations over time in the Great Lakes based on varied atrazine loading rates to the lakes (“most-likely” and “high” loading conditions). Four degradation scenarios were evaluated: no degradation, and atrazine degradation with half-lives of 2 years, 5 years, and 10 years. Predicted steady-state concentrations for all of the scenarios and all the Great Lakes ranged from 0.0024 to 0.88 μg/L. The number of years until steady-state conditions were achieved ranged from 4 to over 400 years. The most-likely loading rate and two-year half-life scenario had the lowest concentrations (0.0024 to 0.13 μg/L) and the fewest years (4 to 13 years) to achieve steady-state conditions. Available monitored atrazine concentrations in the Great Lakes are very similar to the most-likely loading rate and 2-year half-life scenario predicted values. Monitored and predicted concentrations in the Great Lakes indicate atrazine does not currently pose a toxicological risk to humans or aquatic organisms, and under current and expected lower loading rates should remain well below criteria values.