于GA-BP模糊神经网络的商业银行信用风险评估

研究了商业银行信用风险评估的现状,针对单独应用BP神经网络评估信用风险时存在的缺陷,提出了基于遗传算法优化模糊BP神经网络的信用风险评估新模型.通过遗传算法训练模糊BP神经网络,克服网络建模中产生的局部极小的缺点,提高了风险评估的准确性.最后,利用Matlab软件对样本数据进行训练和测试,仿真结果表明所构造的评估模型预测误差非常小.     

基于Matlab的自动变速器换档规律的神经网络模型设计

本文运用一种具有强大的数学分析能力的Matlab工具,建立由节气门开度和车速这两个主要参数控制的汽车自动变速器换档规律的神经网络模型。该神经网络模型对汽车自动变速器的换档规律有很好的分析判断能力,学习能力强,解决了普通工具很难识别节气门开度和车速之间的内在联系的问题。     

肌肉骨骼疾患风险评估方法趋势研究

目的肌肉骨骼疾患是与工作姿势有关的主要职业病,不仅影响工人的健康,而且对经济造成巨大的损失。而不良的工作姿势是引发肌肉骨骼疾患的主要原因。因此评估工作姿势所造成的肌肉骨骼疾患并采取科学的纠正措施逐渐成为相应领域研究的热点问题。基于现有对肌肉骨骼疾患风险评估方法的研究现状和未来趋势进行分析与展望。方法通过对肌肉骨骼疾患、人因风险评估、人体姿态识别等核心概念的相关文献进行梳理和归纳,论述了肌肉骨骼疾患风险评估的主要方法,并重点分析了图像识别技术在肌肉骨骼疾患风险评估中的应用,结合人体骨架与神经网络算法模型对作业姿势进行识别,探讨了人工智能环境下,基于图像识别的评估方法中待解决的难点问题,对未来可能发展趋势进行预测。结论将肌肉骨骼风险评估方法总结为三大类,并分析其在现场评估应用过程中的优缺点;结合图像识别技术的发展,对肌肉骨骼风险评估提出了展望,即智能化自动化评估、多评估方法融合、多通道特征识别。     

大数据环境下产品质量风险评估系统的研究与设计

产品质量风险评估已成为新形势下政府监管面临的重要课题之一。本文结合我国产品质量风险评估研究基础,以大数据技术为导向,结合神经网络、动力系统科学理论、数理统计等理论,运用指标树、K-means聚类分析、判别分析等方法,构建一种新的产品质量风险评估系统,以实现智能评估分析产品质量风险等级。     

基于Lasso-PSO-BP神经网络的腐蚀管道失效压力的预测

管道是运输石油和天然气的重要工具,随着其腐蚀现象愈发严重,必须对腐蚀管道的失效压力进行预测。针对如何精确预测腐蚀管道失效压力的问题,提出一种Lasso-PSO-BP模型。首先,结合收集的腐蚀管道爆破试验数据,利用Lasso回归筛选出失效压力影响因素,确定BP神经网络的输入变量;然后,用粒子群算法(PSO)优化反向传播(BP)神经网络初始权值阈值;最后,将优化训练后的BP神经网络用于管道失效压力的预测。通过实例验证,对比分析2种模型的拟合效果,结果表明:相较Lasso-BP预测模型,Lasso-PSO-BP预测模型的平均误差(AE)从0.102 5减小到0.030 1,均方根误差(RMSE)由1.174 3减小到0.297 2,其各项指标都优于Lasso-BP模型,证明此方法具有较高的准确率,显示了PSO-BP神经网络模型更优的拟合度与预测精度,适用于腐蚀管道失效压力的预测。     

基于GIS的地质灾害风险评估研究

地质灾害具有自然属性和社会经济属性两个方面,所以从社会减灾防灾意义上讲,除了考虑其自然因素外,还应该从社会经济属性方面来分析才具有更大的社会经济效益。因此,地质灾害风险评估应从地质灾害危险性评价和社会经济易损性评价两个方面进行。而GIS（地理信息系统）推广和普及,为灾害的风险评估提供了极为有力的工具,GIS技术支持下的地质灾害风险评估代表着地质灾害研究领域的一个重要发展方向。本文在简述地质灾害风险概念和评价方法模型的基础上,讨论了GIS技术在地质灾害风险评估中应用的基本框架、方法步骤和基于GIS的地质灾害风险评价系统的建立,从而为更有效的减少各类地质灾害对人类造成的损害提供更为科学合理的依据。     

基于Handel-C的PCNN模型研究及应用

脉冲耦合神经网络(PCNN)理论是基于哺乳动物视觉皮层视觉神经细胞活动而产生的一种神经网络理论,在图像处理、语音识别领域有着广泛的应用。将描述在Xilinx公司的FPGA开发平台上应用Handel-C语言实现脉冲耦合神经网络(PCNN)模型的设计方案。同时,还将介绍应用该方法来实现图像预处理的过程。     

机器人系统中操作环境动力学模型研究

研究了机器人操作环境的动力学模型,提出了一种基于径向基函数(RBF)神经网络的机器人系统中环境非线性动力学模型新的建立方法,阐述了其建模机理和算法.结果表明,采用RBF神经网络对机器人系统中的操作环境建模比用BP神经网络有更高的精度,其网络训练速度也大大快于BP神经网络.     

基于粒子群优化算法和BP神经网络的变频压缩机功率预测

本文针对变频压缩机的功率测量困难,测量误差大等问题,提出了一种仿真测量模型。利用粒子群算法寻找全局最优粒子,用它初始化BP神经网络的阈值和权值,测量变频压缩机的功率。本文共建立了3种仿真模进行对比,分别为BP神经网络模型、GA-BP神经网络模型和PSO-BP神经网络模型,然后分别通过3种模型的内插、蒸发温度外推和冷凝温度外推的测试方法对变频压缩机进行功率测量,对比分析其预测结果的平均相对误差和拟合程度。结果表明:基于粒子群算法优化的BP神经网络模型明显优于其他两个模型,特别是在冷凝温度外推测试中,较其他两个神经网络相对误差降低了1. 11%、2. 64%,3种测试方法下的平均相对误差均小于1%,拟合程度在0. 9以上,表明基于粒子群算法优化的BP神经网络模型对变频压缩机功率有较好的测量能力,而且有较强的泛化能力。     

基于三维评估模型转包生产合同风险管理的创新之路

针对传统二维风险评估模型的局限性,提出一种基于风险影响-概率矩阵的三维风险评估方法,即增加一类可检测性指标,对二维评估结果进行修正,解决转包生产活动中供应商面临的合同风险评估问题。通过建立某航空部件转包合同的二维和三维风险评估模型,并使用Borda序值法进行定量分析,验证了该方法的优越性。     

The Rise and Fall of a PM System

ABSTRACT

The Sundance Thermal Generating Plant has six 375-megawatt generators. Before 1979, its annual maintenance shutdowns were handled entirely by external specialized contractors. In 1980, the plant staff started to assume project management control of the shutdowns, using the contractors as subcontractors. Working initially with a training consultant, the plant crew started with short planning sessions and manually updated CPM networks. Over the next 4 years, the project management methods quickly advanced to a simple computer critical path on a time-share system, and then to a complex resource-balanced program on a dedicated VAX. By this time, most of the contractors had been replaced by locally hired tradespeople who were managed directly by the plant staff.

The consultant left the project in 1984, and the maintenance staff took over the training and development tasks associated with the system. Seven years later, in 1992, the project management system was observed, evaluated, and compared against the original 1979 objectives.     

Research on Safety Risk Assessment Method for Large Scale Field Operation Project

By applying man-machine-environment system engineering theory,safety risks on large scale field operation project have been evaluated in this article. The factors concerning with the man,machine and environment in system were proposed separately. The value for lowest indexs was determined by decision-making of expert group. The weights were calculated based on AHP,and then safety risk assessment in different layers was made. The results show that the assessment method is reasonable,and it is significant for large scale field operation project safety managerment.     

Constructing an anticipation formula for fire loss in factory-type

The before fire assessment data from the ARC fire risk assessment system and the financial loss from post-fire damage report for factory-type buildings located in Taiwan were collected. The correlation between assessment data and degree of fire loss (DFL) was calculated by three regression analyses – linear, power, and exponential equations – to produce an anticipation formula. The results revealed that there is more a believable prediction when the fire loss is bigger, regardless of the amount of fire loss or the DFL, while the latter is more related to the assessment grade. By providing proprietors and insurance companies detailed fire risk analysis showing predictable financial loss, it is advantageous for budget management and fire protection, enforcement and should result in the reduction of fire risk and subsequent damage to factory-type buildings.     

Owner’s Risk Allocation and Contractor’s Role Behavior in a Project: A Parallel-mediation Model

Risk allocation decisions are of critical importance in project management. The present study proposes an explanation for how risk allocation in a contract motivates a contractor to cooperate with a project owner. Theories of risk allocation and trust were used to motivate the research. Using a survey methodology, we collected data concerning 124 construction projects in China. We found that risk allocation influenced the contractor’s role behavior through the contractor’s feeling of being trusted but not the contractor’s trust in the owner. Feeling of being trusted partially mediated the effect of risk allocation on the contractor’s in-role (i.e., contractual) behavior and fully mediated the effect on extra-role behavior. The study introduces a social and psychological view of the impacts of risk allocation to the project and engineering management literature. We contribute to theory by arguing and demonstrating the mediating effect of trust on the relationship between risk allocation and contractor behavior. From a practical standpoint, we conclude that contractual risk allocation has a significant impact on building a trusting relationship between owners and contractors and that contractors who feel trusted perform both contractually mandated actions and actions external to the contract more diligently, resulting in the likelihood of improved outcomes for both parties.     

Evaluating bid item prices to support contractor selection ‐ a case study

Abstract

Bid price is a highly‐weighted appraisal criterion in a multi‐criteria evaluation method to select contractors for construction projects. By evaluating both the magnitude and reasonableness of the bid price, this study presents an electronically‐facilitated model for evaluating bid prices. The model defines a reasonable total price for a project and a reasonable cost for each cost category (or bid item) by considering the project prices estimated by the project owner and submitted by all qualified bidders. Scoring systems are then employed to score the prices submitted by bidders, and weighting methods are used to integrate the derived scores. The bidder with the highest integrated score receives the most favorable price appraisal. The merits of the proposed model are demonstrated by its successful application to a recent public construction project in Taiwan.     

改进的项目风险模糊评价研究

项目风险评价是对风险的规律性进行研究和量化分析评价的过程.基于信息熵理论,基于模糊评价方法,提出改进的项目风险模糊评价模型,并结合某一大型工程项目的风险评价,进行了实证研究.结果表明有一定的改进和实践意义.     

Extended contractual incentives to reduce project cost

Summary Extended incentive contracts allow the contractor to select target cost at his own discretion. Two suitably devised design functions ensure that the assessment of excessive target cost automatically reduces both target profit and possible gains from cost underruns. It is shown that extended incentive contracts stimulating risk neutral contractors to reveal their cost expectation truthfully induce risk averse contractors to assess the target cost far higher than expected cost.Dedicated to F. Ferschl on the occasion of his 60th birthday     

基于模糊物元理论的注册建造师执业信用综合评价

针对目前建筑市场中注册建造师执业信用缺失问题,本研究在分析注册建造师执业过程特征的基础上,运用文献查阅与问卷调查方法,构建了注册建造师执业信用过程评价指标体系,并运用模糊物元理论建立了注册建造师执业信用过程评价模型。过程评价视角下的注册建造师执业信用评价体系,有利于全过程跟踪与控制注册建造师执业行为,从而为建筑企业与项目业主展开项目层面上的注册建造师执业信用外部短期监控提供了理论依据。     

浅谈电站EPC总承包项目缓建索赔与争议处理原则与方法

电站EPC总承包项目与大多数一般性施工总承包相比往往金额大、复杂性高、风险大。尤其是遇到各种原因的停工缓建时,项目执行的条件都会发生一定程度的变化,对项目的顺利执行产生或多或少的影响。针对业主原因发生的电站项目停工缓建,总承包商都面临大量分包商的索赔,以及向业主的索赔等,本文从上述索赔的内容和应对措施方面谈一谈经验教训。     

New vistas for technology and risk assessment? The OECD Programme on Emerging Systemic Risks and beyond

This paper presents a framework for understanding risk from the perspective of technological innovation and change. Special focus is put on systemic technological change, which tends to affect several dimensions of society at the same time. By drawing on innovation theory, and exemplifying by reference to the OECD futures project on Emerging Systemic Risk, the article elaborates a framework for technology assessment where the central elements are ubiquitous technological change and risk. Several key dimensions for technology assessment of this kind are identified, including increased mobility of people and goods, magnitude and concentration of humans, the speed and depth of change in the risk landscape, public to private shifts in the ‘ownership’ of risk, and the role played by expectations and perception to risk. The article ends with suggesting a number of new norms for risk and technology assessment coupled with new risk methodologies for further investigation.