Uncertainty assessment of streamflow projection under the impact of climate change in the Lower Mekong Basin: a case study of the Srepok River Basin,Vietnam

Uncertainty assessment of future projection of streamflow is of the essence for an effective formulation of water resources management and planning adaptive to climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the uncertainty in streamflow projection under the climate change impact in the Srepok River Basin. Uncertainty associated with emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), General Circulation Models (GCMs) (CanESM2, CNMR‐CM5 and HadGEM2‐AO), statistical downscaling methods (delta change method, quantile mapping and SDSM), and hydrological models (ANN, HEC‐HMS and SWAT) is examined. The results showed the largest uncertainty source of the streamflow projection is the GCM simulations, followed by the statistical downscaling methods, hydrological models and emission scenarios. In addition, the use of hydrological models has a considerable impact on uncertainty in the simulations of dry seasonal streamflow. Generally, the present study highlighted the importance of using multi‐GCMs in the studies on hydrological impact of climate change.     

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on streamflow in Be River Catchment,Vietnam

This paper focuses on the uncertainty in climate change impacts on streamflow in Be River Catchment. Uncertainty associated with GCM structure from a subset of CMIP3 (CCCMA CGCM3.1, CSIRO Mk30, IPSL CM4, MPI ECHAM5, NCAR CCSM3.0, UKMO HadGEM1, and UKMO HadCM3), SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2), and prescribed increases in global mean temperature (0.5°C to 6°C) using SWAT model is investigated. For prescribed warming scenarios using HadCM3, linear decreases in mean annual streamflow range from 3.1 to 16.7%. Differences in projected annual streamflow between SRES emission scenarios using HadCM3 are small (?5.6% to ?4.6%). Under the A1B scenario and 2°C increase in global mean temperature using seven GCMs, there is substantial disparity, by ?2.9–25.5% and ?8.3–19.1%, respectively. It is generally reasonable to conclude that GCM structure‐related uncertainty is greater than that associated with the emission scenarios and climate sensitivity.     

Impact of climate change on meteorological,hydrological and agricultural droughts in the Lower Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Srepok Basin,Vietnam

The objective of this study is to assess future changes in meteorological, hydrology and agricultural droughts under the impact of changing climate in the Srepok River Basin, a subbasin of LMB, using three drought indices; standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI). The well‐calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as a simulation tool to estimate the features of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts. The climate data for the 2016–2040 period is obtained from four different regional climate models; HadGEM3‐RA, SNU‐MM5, RegCM4 and YSU‐RSM, which are downscaled from the HadGEM2‐AO GCM. The results show that the severity, duration and frequency of droughts are predicted to increase in the near future for this region. Moreover, the meteorological drought is less sensitive to climate change than the hydrological and agricultural droughts; however, it has a stronger correlation with the hydrological and agricultural droughts as the accumulation period is increased. These findings may be useful for water resources management and future planning for mitigation and adaptation to the climate change impact in the Srepok River Basin.     

Uncertainty analysis of parameters in non‐point source pollution simulation: case study of the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to Yitong River watershed in northeast China

Uncertainty analysis of the model parameters in non‐point source pollution (NPSP) simulation is important because of its great effects on predictions and decision‐making. Understanding the main parameters that effect the uncertainty of NPSP is necessary to provide the basis for formulating control measures. In this study, two methods were applied to conduct parameter uncertainty analysis for Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Sobol’ method was used to screen out the model parameters with great effects on the runoff, sediment, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP). The results obtained by sensitivity analysis were used subsequent model calibration and further uncertainty analysis. Monte Carlo (MC) method was employed to analyse the effects of parameter uncertainty on the model outputs. However, such problems are time‐consuming because the MC method required to invoke simulation model thousands of times. To address this challenge, a kriging surrogate model was developed to improve the overall calculation efficiency. The results obtained by sensitivity analysis showed that curve number value (CN2), soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO), universal soil loss equation support practice factor (USLE_P) and initial organic nitrogen concentration in soil layer (SOL_ORGN) had significant effects on the SWAT outputs. The uncertainty analysis results showed that the uncertainty of runoff is the lowest, followed by TP and TN, and the uncertainty of sediment was the greatest. The kriging surrogate model has the ability to solve this time‐consuming problem rapidly with a high degree of accuracy, and thus it is very robust.     

Improved hydrological projections and reservoir management in the Upper Indus Basin under the changing climate

The availability of water resources plays an important role for the economy of a country. The nexus of energy‐food‐water are interlinked and of particular importance in the uncertain environment of developing countries. In Pakistan, agriculture contributes 25% to the gross domestic product. The Indus River contributes 44% of the available water to irrigation of crops and the ecosystem, and currently produces 5,112 MW electricity, with the potential to produce 38,602 MW electricity. This makes it important to investigate the status of water availability in the Upper Indus Basin under existing emission scenarios. In this study, the future availability of water is projected for the Indus River under the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. A meta‐analysis has been conducted to present a combined picture by combining the results from the emission scenarios. Our meta‐analysis shows higher confidence in RCPs projections. The results show that suffcient water will be available in the Indus River that will meet the demands of water in future but there will be scarcity of water in some months under each scenario. However, by proper management and optimum utilisation of the available water, this scarcity can be resolved.     

柴西地区古近系—新近系盐湖相烃源岩特征及生烃模式

为进一步了解柴西地区古近系—新近系盐湖相烃源岩特征及其生烃模式,选取柴西地区下干柴沟组、上干柴沟组以及上油砂山组泥质烃源岩样品进行了岩石热解、可溶组分分析以及生排烃模拟等实验研究。通过实验结果分析认为,所选样品有机质属于低熟—未成熟阶段,均显示出较好的生烃能力;氯仿沥青"A"、适度的含盐量和碳酸盐含量与累积液态烃产量之间均表现出一定的正相关性。柴西地区古近系—新近系盐湖相烃源岩的成烃高峰与传统模式相比明显提前,该结果明确了柴西地区古近系—新近系盐湖相烃源岩的生烃模式,对于指导柴西地区的油气勘探具有重要作用。     

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation—The importance of an integrated approach

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices.The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience.The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which “moderate” the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects.