The mean squared error of Geweke and Porter-Hudak's estimator of the memory parameter of a long-memory time series

We establish some asymptotic properties of a log-periodogram regression estimator for the memory parameter of a long-memory time series. We consider the estimator originally proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (The estimation and application of long memory time series models. Journal of Time Ser. Anal. 4 (1983), 221–37). In particular, we do not omit any of the low frequency periodogram ordinates from the regression. We derive expressions for the estimator's asymptotic bias, variance and mean squared error as functions of the number of periodogram ordinates, m , used in the regression. Consistency of the estimator is obtained as long as m ←∞ and n ←∞ with ( m log m )/ n ← 0, where n is the sample size. Under these and the additional conditions assumed in this paper, the optimal m , minimizing the mean squared error, is of order O( n ^4/5). We also establish the asymptotic normality of the estimator. In a simulation study, we assess the accuracy of our asymptotic theory on mean squared error for finite sample sizes. One finding is that the choice m = n ^1/2, originally suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983), can lead to performance which is markedly inferior to that of the optimal choice, even in reasonably small samples.     

On the asymptotic properties of a feasible estimator of the continuous time long memory parameter

This article considers a fractional noise model in continuous time and examines the asymptotic properties of a feasible frequency domain maximum likelihood estimator of the long memory parameter. The feasible estimator is one that maximizes an approximation to the likelihood function (the approximation arises from the fact that the spectral density function involves the finite truncation of an infinite summation). It is of interest therefore to explore the conditions required of this approximation to ensure the consistency and asymptotic normality of this estimator.     

Subsampling inference for the mean of heavy‐tailed long‐memory time series

In this article, we revisit a time series model introduced by MCElroy and Politis (2007a) and generalize it in several ways to encompass a wider class of stationary, nonlinear, heavy‐tailed time series with long memory. The joint asymptotic distribution for the sample mean and sample variance under the extended model is derived; the associated convergence rates are found to depend crucially on the tail thickness and long memory parameter. A self‐normalized sample mean that concurrently captures the tail and memory behaviour, is defined. Its asymptotic distribution is approximated by subsampling without the knowledge of tail or/and memory parameters; a result of independent interest regarding subsampling consistency for certain long‐range dependent processes is provided. The subsampling‐based confidence intervals for the process mean are shown to have good empirical coverage rates in a simulation study. The influence of block size on the coverage and the performance of a data‐driven rule for block size selection are assessed. The methodology is further applied to the series of packet‐counts from ethernet traffic traces.     

A Modified Nonparametric Prewhitened Covariance Estimator

Abstract. This paper proposes a fully modified version of the spectral matrix estimator (and the long‐run variance estimator as a special case) proposed originally by Xiao and Linton [Journal of Time Series Analysis (2002) Vol. 23, pp. 215–250], and derives its asymptotic results. A striking feature of the modified spectral matrix estimator is to achieve the convergence rate of O(T ^?8/9) in the mean squared error (MSE), which is usually achieved under the fourth‐order spectral window. However, this estimator does not sacrifice the positive definiteness of the resulting estimate for the rate improvement; it is Hermitian and positive definite in finite samples by construction. The faster convergence rate is established by a multiplicative bias correction of the crude spectral estimator under the second‐order spectral window. The approximations to some sensible definitions of the MSE of the estimator and the bandwidths that minimize the asymptotic MSEs are also derived. Monte Carlo results indicate that for a wide variety of processes the modified spectral matrix estimator reduces the bias without inflating the variance and thus improves the MSE, compared with the crude, bias‐uncorrected estimator.     

Trimming and Tapering Semi‐Parametric Estimates in Asymmetric Long Memory Time Series

Abstract. This paper considers semi‐parametric frequency domain inference for seasonal or cyclical time series with asymmetric long memory properties. It is shown that tapering the data reduces the bias caused by the asymmetry of the spectral density at the cyclical frequency. We provide a joint treatment of different tapering schemes and of the log‐periodogram regression and Gaussian semi‐parametric estimates of the memory parameters. Tapering allows for a less restrictive trimming of frequencies for the analysis of the asymptotic properties of both estimates when allowing for asymmetries. Simple rules for inference are feasible thanks to tapering and their validity in finite samples is investigated in a simulation exercise and for an empirical example.     

Inference for the Fourth‐Order Innovation Cumulant in Linear Time Series

The rescaled fourth‐order cumulant of the unobserved innovations of linear time series is an important parameter in statistical inference. This article deals with the problem of estimating this parameter. An existing nonparametric estimator is first discussed, and its asymptotic properties are derived. It is shown how the autocorrelation structure of the underlying process affects the behaviour of the estimator. Based on our findings and on an important invariance property of the parameter of interest with respect to linear filtering, a pre‐whitening‐based nonparametric estimator of the same parameter is proposed. The estimator is obtained using the filtered time series only; that is, an inversion of the pre‐whitening procedure is not required. The asymptotic properties of the new estimator are investigated, and its superiority is established for large classes of stochastic processes. It is shown that for the particular estimation problem considered, pre‐whitening can reduce the variance and the bias of the estimator. The finite sample performance of both estimators is investigated by means of simulations. The new estimator allows for a simple modification of the multiplicative frequency domain bootstrap, which extends its considerable range of validity. Furthermore, the problem of testing hypotheses about the rescaled fourth‐order cumulant of the unobserved innovations is also considered. In this context, a simple test for Gaussianity is proposed. Some real‐life data applications are presented.     

Consistent estimation of the memory parameter for nonlinear time series

Abstract. For linear processes, semiparametric estimation of the memory parameter, based on the log‐periodogram and local Whittle estimators, has been exhaustively examined and their properties well established. However, except for some specific cases, little is known about the estimation of the memory parameter for nonlinear processes. The purpose of this paper is to provide the general conditions under which the local Whittle estimator of the memory parameter of a stationary process is consistent and to examine its rate of convergence. We show that these conditions are satisfied for linear processes and a wide class of nonlinear models, among others, signal plus noise processes, nonlinear transforms of a Gaussian process ξ_t and exponential generalized autoregressive, conditionally heteroscedastic (EGARCH) models. Special cases where the estimator satisfies the central limit theorem are discussed. The finite‐sample performance of the estimator is investigated in a small Monte Carlo study.     

Estimating a change point in the long memory parameter

We propose an estimator of change point in the long memory parameter d of an ARFIMA(p, d, q) process using the sup Wald test. We derive the consistency and the rate of convergence of the estimator for the time of change. The convergence rate of our change point estimator depends on the magnitude of a shift. Furthermore, we obtain the limiting distribution of our change point estimator without depending on the distribution of the process. Therefore, we can construct confidence intervals for the change point. Simulations show the validity of the asymptotic theory of our estimator if the sample size is large enough. We apply our change point estimator to the yearly Nile river minimum water level.     

A Self‐Normalized Semi‐Parametric Test to Detect Changes in the Long Memory Parameter

We consider the problem of testing for change points in the long memory parameter. The test relies on semi‐parametric estimation of the long memory parameter, which does not require the complete parametric specification of the whole spectrum. A self‐normalizer utilizing a sequence of recursive semi‐parametric estimators is used to make the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic free of the nuisance scale parameter. We study the asymptotic behavior of the proposed test for situations when there is at most one change point and also when there are an unknown number of change points. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to examine the finite‐sample performance of the proposed test.     

A Plug‐in Bandwidth Selection Procedure for Long‐Run Covariance Estimation with Stationary Functional Time Series

In several arenas of application, it is becoming increasingly common to consider time series of curves or functions. Many inferential procedures employed in the analysis of such data involve the long‐run covariance function or operator, which is analogous to the long‐run covariance matrix familiar to finite‐dimensional time‐series analysis and econometrics. This function may be naturally estimated using a smoothed periodogram type estimator evaluated at frequency zero that relies on the choice of a bandwidth parameter. Motivated by a number of prior contributions in the finite‐dimensional setting, in particular Newey and West ( 1994 ), we propose a bandwidth selection method that aims to minimize the estimator's asymptotic mean‐squared normed error (AMSNE) in L²[0,1]². As the AMSNE depends on unknown population quantities including the long‐run covariance function itself, estimates for these are plugged in in an initial step after which the estimated AMSNE can be minimized to produce an empirical optimal bandwidth. We show that the bandwidth produced in this way is asymptotically consistent with the AMSNE optimal bandwidth, with quantifiable rates, under mild stationarity and moment conditions. These results and the efficacy of the proposed methodology are evaluated by means of a comprehensive simulation study, from which we can offer practical advice on how to select the bandwidth parameter in this setting.     

A FIXED‐ b TEST FOR A BREAK IN LEVEL AT AN UNKNOWN TIME UNDER FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION

In this paper, we propose a test for a break in the level of a fractionally integrated process when the timing of the putative break is not known. This testing problem has received considerable attention in the literature in the case where the time series is weakly autocorrelated. Less attention has been given to the case where the underlying time series is allowed to be fractionally integrated. Here, valid testing can only be performed if the limiting null distribution of the level break test statistic is well defined for all values of the fractional integration exponent considered. However, conventional sup‐Wald type tests diverge when the data are strongly autocorrelated. We show that a sup‐Wald statistic, which is standardized using a non‐parametric kernel‐based long‐run variance estimator, does possess a well‐defined limit distribution, depending only on the fractional integration parameter, provided the recently developed fixed‐b asymptotic framework is applied. We give the appropriate asymptotic critical values for this sup‐Wald statistic and show that it has good finite sample size and power properties.     

Quasi‐Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a Class of Continuous‐time Long‐memory Processes

Tsai and Chan (2003) has recently introduced the Continuous‐time Auto‐Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving‐Average (CARFIMA) models useful for studying long‐memory data. We consider the estimation of the CARFIMA models with discrete‐time data by maximizing the Whittle likelihood. We show that the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal and efficient. Finite‐sample properties of the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator and those of the exact maximum likelihood estimator are compared by simulations. Simulations suggest that for finite samples, the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator of the Hurst parameter is less biased but more variable than the exact maximum likelihood estimator. We illustrate the method with a real application.     

Pooled Log Periodogram Regression

Estimation of the memory parameter in time series with long range dependence is considered. A pooled log periodogram regression estimator is proposed that utilizes a set of mL periodogram ordinates with L →∞ rather than m ordinates as in the conventional log periodogram estimator. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the pooled regression estimator are established. The pooled estimator is shown to have smaller asymptotic variance, but larger asymptotic bias, than the conventional log periodogram estimator. Finite sample performance is assessed in simulations and the methods are illustrated in an empirical application with inflation and stock returns.     

Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies

Abstract.  We show that tests for a break in the persistence of a time series in the classical I (0)/ I (1) framework have serious size distortions when the actual data-generating process (DGP) exhibits long-range dependencies. We prove that the limiting distribution of a CUSUM of squares-based test depends on the true memory parameter if the DGP exhibits long memory. We propose adjusted critical values for the test and give finite sample response curves that allow easy implementation of the test by the practitioner and also ease in computing the relevant critical values. We furthermore prove the consistency of the test for a simple breakpoint estimator also under long memory. We show that the test has satisfying power properties when the correct critical values are used.     

Inference about long run canonical correlations

This article proposes methods for testing the null hypothesis that a number of so‐called long run canonical correlations (LRCCs) are zero. Two test statistics are proposed and their limiting distributions are derived under the null hypothesis. The finite sample properties of the tests are illustrated via a number of simulation studies that reveal the asymptotic theory provides a good guidance to behaviour in moderate or large sized samples. It is shown that the statistics provide a natural way for testing the asymptotic independence of two standardized sums. The usefulness of the tests is illustrated via the following examples: inference about cointegrating vector in a particular cointegration model; inference about break points in a cointegration model; moment estimation; parameter estimation in Generalized Method of Moments estimation.     

A PARAMETER‐DRIVEN LOGIT REGRESSION MODEL FOR BINARY TIME SERIES

We consider a parameter‐driven regression model for binary time series, where serial dependence is introduced by an autocorrelated latent process incorporated into the logit link function. Unlike in the case of parameter‐driven Poisson log‐linear or negative binomial logit regression model studied in the literature for time series of counts, generalized linear model (GLM) estimation of the regression coefficient vector, which suppresses the latent process and maximizes the corresponding pseudo‐likelihood, cannot produce a consistent estimator. As a remedial measure, in this article, we propose a modified GLM estimation procedure and show that the resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Moreover, we develop two procedures for estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator and establish their consistency property. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite‐sample performance of the proposed procedures. An empirical example is also presented.     

RATE OPTIMAL SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF THE MEMORY PARAMETER OF THE GAUSSIAN TIME SERIES WITH LONG-RANGE DEPENDENCE

There exist several estimators of the memory parameter in long- memory time series models with the spectrum specified only locally near zero frequency. In this paper we give an asymptotic lower bound for the minimax risk of any estimator of the memory parameter as a function of the degree of local smoothness of the spectral density at zero. The lower bound allows one to evaluate and compare different estimators by their asymptotic behaviour, and to claim the rate optimality for any estimator attaining the bound. A log-periodogram regression estimator, analysed by Robinson (Log-periodogram regression of time series with long range dependence. Ann. Stat. 23 (1995), 1048--72), is then shown to attain the lower bound, and is thus rate optimal.     

Asymptotic normality of wavelet estimators of the memory parameter for linear processes

Abstract.  We consider linear processes, not necessarily Gaussian, with long, short or negative memory. The memory parameter is estimated semi-parametrically using wavelets from a sample X ₁,…, X _n of the process. We treat both the log-regression wavelet estimator and the wavelet Whittle estimator. We show that these estimators are asymptotically normal as the sample size n  → ∞ and we obtain an explicit expression for the limit variance. These results are derived from a general result on the asymptotic normality of the scalogram for linear processes, conveniently centred and normalized. The scalogram is an array of quadratic forms of the observed sample, computed from the wavelet coefficients of this sample. In contrast to quadratic forms computed on the basis of Fourier coefficients such as the periodogram, the scalogram involves correlations which do not vanish as the sample size n  → ∞.     

Reducing the size distortion of the KPSS test

This article proposes a new stationarity test based on the KPSS test with less size distortion. We extend the boundary rule proposed by Sul et al. (2005) to the autoregressive spectral density estimator and parametrically estimate the long‐run variance. We also derive the finite sample bias of the numerator of the test statistic up to the 1/T order and propose a correction to the bias term in the numerator. Finite sample simulations show that the correction term effectively reduces the bias in the numerator and that the finite sample size of our test is close to the nominal one as long as the long‐run parameter in the model satisfies the boundary condition.     

Statistical Inference for Unified Garch–Itô Models with High‐Frequency Financial Data

The existing estimation methods for the model parameters of the unified GARCH–Itô model (Kim and Wang, 2014 ) require long period observations to obtain the consistency. However, in practice, it is hard to believe that the structure of a stock price is stable during such a long period. In this article, we introduce an estimation method for the model parameters based on the high‐frequency financial data with a finite observation period. In particular, we establish a quasi‐likelihood function for daily integrated volatilities, and realized volatility estimators are adopted to estimate the integrated volatilities. The model parameters are estimated by maximizing the quasi‐likelihood function. We establish asymptotic theories for the proposed estimator. A simulation study is conducted to check the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator. We apply the proposed estimation approach to the Bank of America stock price data.