Chi‐squared portmanteau tests for structural VARMA models with uncorrelated errors

We consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of structural vector autoregressive moving average models with uncorrelated errors. Under the assumption that errors are uncorrelated but non‐independent, it is known that the Ljung–Box (or Box–Pierce) portmanteau test statistic is asymptotically distributed as a weighted sum of chi‐squared random variables which can be far from the chi‐square distribution usually employed. We therefore propose a new portmanteau statistic that is asymptotically chi‐squared even in the presence of uncorrelated but non‐independent errors. Monte Carlo experiments illustrate the finite sample performance for the proposed portmanteau test.     

Multivariate Portmanteau Test For Autoregressive Models with Uncorrelated but Nonindependent Errors

Abstract. We study the asymptotic behaviour of the least squares estimator, of the residual autocorrelations and of the Ljung–Box (or Box–Pierce) portmanteau test statistic for multiple autoregressive time series models with nonindependent innovations. Under mild assumptions, it is shown that the asymptotic distribution of the portmanteau tests is that of a weighted sum of independent chi‐squared random variables. When the innovations exhibit conditional heteroscedasticity or other forms of dependence, this asymptotic distribution can be quite different from that of models with independent and identically distributed innovations. Consequently, the usual chi‐squared distribution does not provide an adequate approximation to the distribution of the Box–Pierce goodness‐of‐fit portmanteau test in the presence of nonindependent innovations. Hence we propose a method to adjust the critical values of the portmanteau tests. Monte carlo experiments illustrate the finite sample performance of the modified portmanteau test.     

Improved multivariate portmanteau test

A new portmanteau diagnostic test for vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that is based on the determinant of the standardized multivariate residual autocorrelations is derived. The new test statistic may be considered an extension of the univariate portmanteau test statistic suggested by Peňa and Rodríguez (2002) . The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived as well as a chi‐square approximation. However, the Monte–Carlo test is recommended unless the series is very long. Extensive simulation experiments demonstrate the usefulness of this test as well as its improved power performance compared to widely used previous multivariate portmanteau diagnostic check. Two illustrative applications are given.     

An Extended Portmanteau Test for VARMA Models With Mixing Nonlinear Constraints

Abstract. The portmanteau test is a widely used diagnostic tool for univariate and multivariate time‐series models. Its asymptotic distribution is known for the unconstrained vector autoregressive moving‐average (VARMA) case and for VAR models with constraints on the autoregressive coefficients. In this article, we give conditions under which the test can be applied to constrained VARMA models. Unfortunately, it cannot generally be applied to models with constraints that simultaneously affect the ARMA polynomial coefficients and the covariance matrix of the innovations (mixing constraints). This happens in latent‐variable models such as dynamic factor models (DFM). In addition, when there are constraints on the covariance matrix it seems convenient to check the goodness of fit using the zero‐lag residual covariances. We propose an extended portmanteau test that not only checks the autocorrelations of the residuals but also whether their covariance matrix is consistent with the constraints. We prove that the statistic is asymptotically distributed as a chi‐square for ARMA models under the assumption that the innovations have Gaussian‐like fourth‐order moments. We also show that the test is appropriate for the DFM, Peña–Box model and factor‐structural vector autoregression (FSVAR).     

Mixed Portmanteau Tests for Time‐Series Models

Abstract. This paper obtains the joint limiting distribution of residuals and squared residuals of a general time‐series model. Based on this, we propose a mixed portmanteau statistic for testing the adequacy of fitted time‐series models. In some cases, it is shown that this statistic can be simply approximated by the sum of well‐known portmanteau statistics. The finite‐sample performance of the new test is compared with those of well‐known tests through simulations.     

Tests for the Equality of Two Processes' Spectral Densities with Unequal Lengths Using Wavelet Methods

Testing procedures for assessing whether two stationary and independent linear processes with unequal lengths have the same spectral densities or same auto‐covariance functions are investigated. New test statistics are proposed based on the difference of the two wavelet‐based estimates of the two spectral densities. The asymptotic normal distributions of the empirical wavelet coefficients are derived based on Bartlett type approximation of a quadratic form with dependent variables by the corresponding quadratic form with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. The limit distributions of the proposed test statistics are derived from those asymptotic results, and they asymptotically follow known chi‐square distributions. The advantage of those new procedures is that those test statistics are constructed very simply and can be used for two time series with arbitrary lengths. The performance of those new tests is compared with some recent test statistics, with respect to their exact levels and powers. Simulation studies show that our proposed tests are very comparable to the current tests.     

On modelling and diagnostic checking of vector periodic autoregressive time series models

Abstract.  Vector periodic autoregressive time series models (PVAR) form an important class of time series for modelling data derived from climatology, hydrology, economics and electrical engineering, among others. In this article, we derive the asymptotic distributions of the least squares estimators of the model parameters in PVAR models, allowing the parameters in a given season to satisfy linear constraints. Residual autocorrelations from classical vector autoregressive and moving-average models have been found useful for checking the adequacy of a particular model. In view of this, we obtain the asymptotic distribution of the residual autocovariance matrices in the class of PVAR models, and the asymptotic distribution of the residual autocorrelation matrices is given as a corollary. Portmanteau test statistics designed for diagnosing the adequacy of PVAR models are introduced and we study their asymptotic distributions. The proposed test statistics are illustrated in a small simulation study, and an application with bivariate quarterly West German data is presented.     

Tests for Comparing Time‐Invariant and Time‐Varying Spectra Based on the Pearson Statistic

Two tests are proposed in this paper for comparing spectra of two univariate time series. One is a Pearson‐like statistic based only on periodograms of the compared time series and applicable for testing the equality of two time‐invariant spectra of two independent or dependent time series, with an asymptotic chi‐squared distribution under the null hypothesis. The other is based on the maximum of the Pearson‐like statistics. Not only does this test, again, depend only on periodograms but also approximately equals the maximum of a chi‐squared distribution of the same degrees of freedom under the null. It can be used to test the equality of spectra of two locally stationary time series regardless of whether they are dependent or independent. Multiple simulation examples show that both statistics achieve good performance. The proposed approach is illustrated by an application to longitudinal vibration data from a container ship.     

Empirical likelihood in long‐memory time series models

This article studies the empirical likelihood method for long‐memory time series models. By virtue of the Whittle likelihood, one obtains a score function that can be viewed as an estimating equation of the parameters of a fractional integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) model. This score function is used to obtain an empirical likelihood ratio which is shown to be asymptotically chi‐square distributed. Confidence regions for the parameters are constructed based on the asymptotic distribution of the empirical likelihood ratio. Bartlett correction and finite sample properties of the empirical likelihood confidence regions are examined.     

A test for second‐order stationarity of a time series based on the discrete Fourier transform

We consider a zero mean discrete time series, and define its discrete Fourier transform (DFT) at the canonical frequencies. It can be shown that the DFT is asymptotically uncorrelated at the canonical frequencies if and only if the time series is second‐order stationary. Exploiting this important property, we construct a Portmanteau type test statistic for testing stationarity of the time series. It is shown that under the null of stationarity, the test statistic has approximately a chi‐square distribution. To examine the power of the test statistic, the asymptotic distribution under the locally stationary alternative is established. It is shown to be a generalized non‐central chi‐square, where the non‐centrality parameter measures the deviation from stationarity. The test is illustrated with simulations, where is it shown to have good power.     

Improved prediction limits for a general class of Gaussian models

In this article we consider the problem of prediction for a general class of Gaussian models, which includes, among others, autoregressive moving average time‐series models, linear Gaussian state space models and Gaussian Markov random fields. Using an idea presented in Sjöstedt‐De Luna and Young (2003) , in the context of spatial statistics, we discuss a method for obtaining prediction limits for a future random variable of interest, taking into account the uncertainty introduced by estimating the unknown parameters. The proposed prediction limits can be viewed as a modification of the estimative prediction limit, with unconditional, and eventually conditional, coverage error of smaller asymptotic order. The modifying term has a quite simple form and it involves the bias and the mean square error of the plug‐in estimators for the conditional expectation and the conditional variance of the future observation. Applications of the results to Gaussian time‐series models are presented.     

Robust Estimation For Periodic Autoregressive Time Series

Abstract. A robust estimation procedure for periodic autoregressive (PAR) time series is introduced. The asymptotic properties and the asymptotic relative efficiency are discussed by the estimating equation approach. The performance of the robust estimators for PAR time‐series models with order one is illustrated by a simulation study. The technique is applied to a real data analysis.     

Diagnostics for Time Series Analysis

Test statistics are proposed to determine the goodness of fit of a time series model. The test statistics are based on a sequence of random variables that are independent and standard normal if the model is correct. The paper shows how to compute this sequence of random variables efficiently using a combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. The power of the statistics to detect outliers and level shifts is studied for an autoregressive model. The methodology is illustrated using both simulated and real data.     

ON WEIGHTED PORTMANTEAU TESTS FOR TIME‐SERIES GOODNESS‐OF‐FIT

Recent work in the literature has shown weighted variants of the classic portmanteau test for time series can be more powerful in many situations. In this article, we study the asymptotic distribution of weighted sums of the squared residual autocorrelations where both the sample size n and maximum lag of the statistic m grow large. Several weighting schemes are introduced, including a data‐adaptive statistic in which the weights are determined by a function of the sample partial autocorrelations. These statistics can provide more power than other portmanteau tests found in the literature and are much less sensitive to the choice of the maximum correlation lag. The efficacy of the proposed methods is further demonstrated through an analysis of Australian red wine sales.     

A Generalized Portmanteau Test For Independence Of Two Infinite‐Order Vector Autoregressive Series

Abstract. In many situations, we want to verify the existence of a relationship between multivariate time series. Here, we propose a semiparametric approach for testing the independence between two infinite‐order vector autoregressive (VAR(∞)) series, which is an extension of Hong's [Biometrika (1996c) vol. 83, 615–625] univariate results. We first filter each series by a finite‐order autoregression and the test statistic is a standardized version of a weighted sum of quadratic forms in the residual cross‐correlation matrices at all possible lags. The weights depend on a kernel function and on a truncation parameter. Using a result of Lewis and Reinsel [Journal of Multivariate Analysis (1985) Vol. 16, pp. 393–411], the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived under the null hypothesis and its consistency is also established for a fixed alternative of serial cross‐correlation of unknown form. Apart from standardization factors, the multivariate portmanteau statistic proposed by Bouhaddioui and Roy [Statistics and Probability Letters (2006) vol. 76, pp. 58–68] that takes into account a fixed number of lags can be viewed as a special case by using the truncated uniform kernel. However, many kernels lead to a greater power, as shown in an asymptotic power analysis and by a small simulation study in finite samples. A numerical example with real data is also presented.     

An Improvement of the Portmanteau Statistic

Abstract. The portmanteau statistic is based on the first m‐residual autocorrelations, and is used for diagnostic checks on the adequacy of fit of a model. In this article, we propose a modified portmanteau statistic with a correction term that allows for the use of small values of m for the chi‐squared test. For this modification, we take a different approach to that suggested by Ljung [Biometrika (1986), Vol. 73, pp. 725–30]. Their empirical behaviour is clarified using asymptotic theory.     

Large Sample Properties of Parameter Estimates for Periodic ARMA Models

This paper studies the asymptotic properties of parameter estimates for causal and invertible periodic autoregressive moving-average (PARMA) time series models. A general limit result for PARMA parameter estimates with a moving-average component is derived. The paper presents examples that explicitly identify the limiting covariance matrix for parameter estimates from a general periodic autoregression (PAR), a first-order periodic moving average (PMA(1)), and the mixed PARMA(1,1) model. Some comparisons and contrasts to univariate and vector autoregressive moving-average sequences are made.     

Determining the order of the functional autoregressive model

We propose a multistage testing procedure to determine the order p of a functional autoregressive process, FAR (p). At its core is the representation of the FAR(p) process as a fully functional linear model with dependent regressors. Estimating the kernel function in this linear model allows us to construct a test statistic which has, approximately, a chi–square distribution with the number of degrees of freedom determined by the number of functional principal components used to represent the data. The asymptotic justification relies on the concept of L^p–m–approximability which quantifies the temporal dependence of functional time series. The procedure enjoys very good finite sample properties, as confirmed by a simulation study and applications to functional time series derived from credit card transactions and Eurodollar futures data.     

THE ASYMPTOTIC PROPERTIES OF THE SAMPLE AUTOCORRELATIONS FOR A MULTIPLE AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESS WITH ONE UNIT ROOT

Abstract. In this paper the large sample behaviour of the sample autocorrelation matrix R _n( h ), ( h being the lag, n the sample size), of a multivariate autoregressive time series with one of its characteristic roots equal to unity and the rest of the roots lying inside the unit circle is studied. It is shown that R _n( h ) converges almost surely to a constant matrix. Further, the asymptotic distribution of R _n( h ) is characterized as that of a random matrix which is a function of jointly normal random variables.     

Zero‐Modified Geometric INAR(1) Process for Modelling Count Time Series with Deflation or Inflation of Zeros

In this article, we propose a first‐order integer‐valued autoregressive [INAR(1)] process for dealing with count time series with deflation or inflation of zeros. The proposed process has zero‐modified geometric marginals and contains the geometric INAR(1) process as a particular case. The proposed model is also capable of capturing underdispersion and overdispersion, which sometimes are caused by deflation or inflation of zeros. We explore several statistical and mathematical properties of the process, discuss point estimation of the parameters and find the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimators. We also propose a test based on our model for checking if the count time series considered is deflated or inflated of zeros. Two empirical illustrations are presented in order to show the potential for practice of our zero‐modified geometric INAR(1) process. This article contains a Supporting Information.