风险管理在国外工程成本控制中的应用

由于风险在工程施工中的重要地位及对工程造价的影响,掌握风险管理方法及其应用技巧是很有必要的。本文主要通过对一具体工程项目的调查,分析该项目在成本管理中所采用的风险管理方法,说明风险管理在工程项目的成本管理中有着十分重要的作用。     

Reinforcing cycles involving inter- and intraorganizational paradoxical tensions when managing large construction projects

In recent years, scholars have shown a growing interest in combining control and flexibility when organizing and managing large construction projects, in contrast with the traditional focus on control. Prior research recognizes that there is a paradoxical tension between control and flexibility, meaning that, while both approaches make sense individually, they appear impossible to combine. Large construction projects are interorganizational, which means that tensions between interorganizational control/flexibility coexist with tensions between intraorganizational direction/empowerment, but the interplay and possible reinforcing cycles involving the two tensions have rarely been investigated in prior research. A multiple case study of four large construction projects with three rounds of interviews show how intraorganizational direction/empowerment can influence interorganizational control/flexibility and vice versa, and demonstrate both vicious and virtuous reinforcing cycles that involve the two types of tensions. Therefore, contributing to the project management and construction management literature, it is argued that employing a systemic approach when studying interorganizational projects is essential. A systemic paradox perspective can reveal interdependencies between tensions at different organizational interfaces, improve the understanding of how individuals in all managerial positions interplay, and explain how reinforcing cycles emerge and develop; this is important to recognize when organizing, staffing and managing large construction projects.     

Applying the strategic prospective approach to project management in a development project in Colombia

International development projects face uncertainty challenges more often than other projects. The strategic prospective approach is based on understanding the future and accepting uncertainties. This theory is presented as an appropriate methodology for this type of projects. This study presents the case study of a development project designed and executed according to this discipline. The project involved implementing an innovative model of higher technical education and employability for low-income young people in the Department of Cauca (Colombia). The results show that despite the region's circumstances and the overall context, future problems were identified in advance, and this had a positive impact on the project. From international development, project management can learn flexibility to deal with the uncertainty and participative processes required for managing stakeholders, and the strategic prospective approach can be a good alliance in this challenge.     

The integrative role of the project management office in the front end of innovation

This research addresses management control in the front end of innovation projects. We conceptualize and analyze PMOs more broadly than just as a specialized project-focused organizational unit. Building on theories of management control, organization design, and innovation front end literature, we assess the role of PMO as an integrative arrangement. The empirical material is derived from four companies. The results show a variety of management control mechanisms that can be considered as integrative organizational arrangements. Such organizational arrangements can be considered as an alternative to a non-existent PMO, or to complement a (non-existent) PMO's tasks. The paper also contrasts prior literature by emphasizing the desirability of a highly organic or embedded matrix structure in the organization. Finally, we propose that the development path of the management approach proceeds by first emphasizing diagnostic and boundary systems (with mechanistic management approaches) followed by intensive use of interactive and belief systems (with value-based management approaches). The major contribution of this paper is in the organizational and managerial mechanisms of a firm that is managing multiple innovation projects. This research also expands upon the existing PMO research to include a broader management control approach for managing projects in companies.     

Risk assessment and management in underground rock engineering——an overview

This paper attempts to provide an overview of risk assessment and management practice in underground rock engineering based on a review of the international literature and some personal experience. It is noted that the terminologies used in risk assessment and management studies may vary from country to country. Probabilistic risk analysis is probably the most widely-used approach to risk assessment in rock engineering and in geotechnical engineering more broadly. It is concluded that great potential exists to augment the existing probabilistic methods by the use of Bayesian networks and decision analysis techniques to allow reasoning under uncertainty and to update probabilities, material properties and analyses as further data become available throughout the various stages of a project. Examples are given of the use of these methods in underground excavation engineering in China and elsewhere, and opportunities for their further application are identified.     

边坡工程建设安全评估方法研究

在边坡工程建设实施过程中可能遇到各类风险,近年来,风险分析成为了结构和岩土工程师日益关注的课题。边坡安全评估的首要目的是了解并控制边坡的风险,了解和控制通过风险评估获得。一旦被评估的风险超标,往往要采取措施降低风险。风险的量级取决于风险分析模式,以及风险评估过程所得到的过高风险。针对目前的边坡工程风险管理落后现状,文章的目的是对存在于边坡工程建设中的风险评估程序的风险识别、分析、评价和管理四个阶段进行一定的综合探讨,并给出基本的决策管理方法用来选择最理想的策略进行边坡工程建设的实施,为方便业主进行决策选择提供依据。     

基于SNA视角的绿色建筑项目风险网络构建与评价研究

目前,工程风险研究中多数将风险因素看作孤立的点,缺乏从风险因素内在相互关系角度对风险展开整体研究。首先识别出绿色建筑项目的26项风险因素,从全生命周期和利益相关者二维视角进行归类,基于问卷调查结合一致性分析方法辨识风险因素之间的相互影响关系,据此构建风险网络邻接矩阵。其次,利用社会网络分析方法中的块模型进行整体和个体网络分析,获得风险网络中居于核心地位的风险因素;进一步利用线的中间中心度识别网络中关键关系。最后,有针对性地提出控制核心风险和关键关系的措施,并利用整体网络密度、聚集系数、图的中间中心势和可达矩阵的可达数量等指标对风险管理效果进行检测。结果显示：对核心风险和关键关系进行控制管理,可有效阻断风险在网络中的传导,整个风险网络的复杂度和节点联系的紧密度均有明显降低,网络中某一关键风险引发导致整个绿色建筑项目失败的可能性大大降低。研究重点关注了绿色建筑项目风险网络关联关系,成果可为项目管理者提供新的风险管理思路。     

An empirical investigation on how portfolio risk management influences project portfolio success

Project risk management is recognized as essential in order to cope with the challenges arising from the environment. Literature suggests a portfolio-wide perspective for managing risks in project portfolios. However, research on risk management and its success in a project portfolio context is scarce. This study examines how portfolio risk management influences project portfolio success. Using a sample of 176 firms, this study provides evidence that portfolio risk identification, the formalization of the portfolio risk management process, and risk management culture directly influence risk transparency, whereas risk prevention, risk monitoring, and the integration of risk management into project portfolio management are directly connected to risk coping capacity. The findings also suggest that both risk transparency and risk coping capacity have a direct impact on project portfolio success. However, the results did not confirm the hypothesis that risk transparency and risk coping capacity have a complementary effect on success. Implications for scholars and project portfolio managers are discussed.     

Network gaps and project success

Project success and client satisfaction are results of collaborative actions by project actors throughout the entire project life cycle. One principal factor in project success is the application of effective management tools. Gap analysis helps to achieve client satisfaction. However, gap analysis is unable to deal with the organic nature of information exchange between project actors. Social network analysis (SNA) enables the identification and analysis of information exchange and communication patterns in synergy with projects. Two case studies were carried out to identify gaps in the current linear project management approach. Gap analysis and SNA were used to analyse each project and to examine the research hypothesis on the use of SNA to identify network management gaps in projects. The gap analysis showed gaps of execution and conformance, which were confirmed by SNA. There was little evidence of project governance outside the project contractual arrangements during project execution. The current application approach of different management tools is limited in providing a whole‐project view. The combined application of gap analysis and SNA can help practitioners to exceed client expectations.     

The role of mindfulness in the management of projects: Potential opportunities in research and practice

Mindfulness is receiving growing attention in the project management community, probably due its proven beneficial effects at individual, team and organization levels in other management domains. Indeed, 80% of the 50 publications identified in this paper were published over the last decade. This review addresses the disparate extant publications related to mindfulness in the field of project management to date and seeks to establish how mindfulness is studied in the management of projects. We first recall the two historical schools of thought, their respective perspective on mindfulness and highlight a recent, reconciling conceptualization of the mindfulness construct termed meta-cognitive practice. Next, we review existing project management works that have included mindfulness theory and categorize them into six main research themes. Project management scholars have studied mindfulness as an enabler of (1) high reliability project organizing, (2) change and innovation, (3) agility and flexibility, (4) mindfulness-based behaviours to be compared with routine-based ones, (5) project actors and project team self-regulation, and (6) megaprojects performance. Third, we provide an overall framework of how mindfulness may benefit the project management field, together with an overall discussion of issues to be addressed. Last, we provide research avenues to foster future research in each of the identified themes. In sum, as the first review on the application of mindfulness in project management research, we contribute to the understanding of how mindfulness can contribute to overall project performance.     

A pragmatist perspective on front-end project organizing: The case of refurbishment of the Palace of Westminster

This study examines how actors organized collective efforts to initiate the project and navigated their way forward, even though the ultimate outcome was not clearly defined. To address this question, we explore the potential of the philosophical tradition of pragmatism. This approach foregrounds duality, recursiveness and temporality of collective activities and offers a new and compelling way to understand and address the challenges actors face in organizing and managing the front-end. By accounting for both the situatedness of actions in the wider social and relational contexts, and by connecting the flow of present experience to the interpretations of the past and future, pragmatism holds the potential for integrating theory the actuality of lived experience in its continuous unfolding while accounting for actors’ transformative agency. By drawing on a real-time longitudinal study of conception of the program of the Restoration and Renewal (R&R) of the Palace of Westminster, we show how participants face the challenge of understanding and managing complex tensions that continually arise due to a duality of mobilization (between seeking consensus and expanding divergent possibilities) and a duality of transformation (between forming a bold vision of the future and translating abstract goals into concrete actions). To tackle the challenges, participants create strategic accounts that are stable enough to be practically feasible in current circumstances, but also sufficiently adaptable to pursue future possibilities in ways that challenge prevailing approaches. By showing how participants cope with these challenges by creating spaces of experimentation and constructing flexible boundaries this study contributes to the literature on management of project's front-end.     

“一带一路”沿线重大工程风险识别及评估研究

为了帮助中国企业在“一带一路”沿线重大工程投资过程中更好地掌控风险,构建风险评价体系。利用文献分析法初步识别“一带一路”沿线重大工程风险,借助因子分析法确定风险因素权重,从经济水平、社会文化、中国因素、国际政治、外交关系5个维度构建“一带一路”重大工程风险评估指标体系。并对“一带一路”沿线国家重大工程风险评估进行算例演示,绘制相关风险等级地图,形象直观地反映“一带一路”沿线各国关于重大工程建设的风险等级,为我国“一带一路”重大工程投资决策提供参考。     

Does risk management contribute to IT project success? A meta-analysis of empirical evidence

The question whether risk management contributes to IT project success is considered relevant by people from both academic and practitioners’ communities already for a long time. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the empirical evidence that either supports or opposes the claim that risk management contributes to IT project success. In addition, this paper also investigates the validity of the assumptions on which risk management is based. The analysis leads to remarkable conclusions. Over the last 10 years, much has become known about what causes IT projects to fail. However, there is still very little empirical evidence that this knowledge is actually used in projects for managing risks in IT projects.     

风险信息管理在大型越江隧道建设中的应用

本文结合盾构越江隧道工程技术和项目管理的具体特点,对越江隧道工程建设期间的风险管理方法进行了系统的研究,构建了工程现场管理的基本框架。基于“结构分解”的风险分类理论,建立了风险信息数据库,实现了对工程数据信息的有效存储和利用;通过和监测数据建立关联,构建了工程现场风险动态评估;基于以上成果,研发了一套工程信息及风险评估管理软件。     

Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects

The undertaking of construction projects in metropolitan areas is a risky, competitive, and dynamic proposition requiring a reliable risk assessment model for adequate planning. This study employs a fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) approach to systematically assess risk for a metropolitan construction project. Consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) are used to measure and investigate the relative impact on project performance of twenty identified risk factors included in four risk dimensions. The fuzzy multiple attributes direct rating (FMADR) approach is employed to analyze the occurrence probability of multiple risk factors. Furthermore, the level of risk for the overall project caused by individual risk factor is evaluated with the synthesized analysis of the relative impacts and probability of occurrence. The implementation of FMCDM makes the proposed risk assessment approach more reliable and practical than the traditional statistical approach. The proposed approach can be employed to effectively evaluate the overall project risk, and can be benefited to efficiently identify significant risks of a metropolitan construction project.     

Competing management approaches in large engineering projects: The Dutch RandstadRail project

The management of large engineering projects is often a combination of the focus on planning and control, and the ambition to be flexible given the complexity and uncertainties that characterises these kinds of projects. However, control and flexibility impose contradictory requirements upon the management of these projects. The literature on project management reflects this contradiction. Some authors underline that projects require firm planning and control, thus downplaying the role of flexibility. Others emphasise that projects require flexibility and responsiveness, thus moving away from rigid planning and control. In this contribution, we suggest that in practice project managers acknowledge the weakness of both extremes and therefore strive to combine the two. Moreover, we argue that project success is at risk when project managers do not succeed in meeting the requirements of control and flexibility. To be able to investigate how these competing requirements are dealt with in practice, a framework is developed. The usefulness of the framework is explored by applying the framework to the large engineering project Randstadrail—a light rail project in The Netherlands.     

浅谈集团项目管理中质量风险的控制与防范

建筑工程质量管理过程是一个全方位、全过程、多角度的全面质量管理过程。本文结合青岛建设集团公司现状,详细分析了集团公司项目管理过程中质量风险的影响因素,如质量管理意识不强、工程竣工回访保修服务差、过分依赖分包队伍、生产设施陈旧、工艺落后而且工程质量事故频繁发生。然后提出了应针对项目质量风险因素采取相应的控制与防范措施,如明确质量目标、以人为本和加强岗位技能训练、加强过程检验、建立健全质量管理制度、加强竣工服务、实施名牌战略。最后指出要从多角度、全方位分析、预测项目质量管理风险因素,采取有效的控制与防范措施,增强施工企业规避质量风险的能力。     

2008奥运场馆建设风险管理工具——风险表的建立

2008北京奥运场馆建设风险管理系统包括两部分:风险管理的工具和风险管理的工作框架。风险管理工具包括风险表(RiskRegister)和项目风险预警系统;工作框架主要包括风险管理的工作流程和相应的组织机构。着重介绍已经完成的有关风险表的工作,明确定义2008奥运场馆建设目标,进行风险识别,并从识别出的242个风险因素中选取112个重要风险因素,建立风险分解结构,对44个直接风险因素制定处置措施,并明确风险管理责任单位,形成奥运场馆建设风险表。     

The dynamics of repairing multi-project control practice: a project governance viewpoint

This paper examines the development of enabling control practice, within flexible project governance. Enabling control would interactively help reach the objectives set for multi-project new product development (NPD) management and, especially support the different managerial actors involved. Previous research does not adequately cover the dynamics and interplay between different managerial actors in developing management control for multi-project NPD. This paper responds to the question: How can actors interactively repair multi-project control practice within project governance? The paper takes advantage of a longitudinal action research endeavor (2009-2014), featuring research interventions on developing project control in subsequent NPD projects. The researchers collected empirical data from 130 documented project meetings, workshops, and interactions, and the data were qualitatively analyzed to identify critical steps in multi-project control practice repair. First, as a contribution to the project management literature, we show how the repair effort, as organizational interplay, may effectively, and temporarily or permanently repair inoperative NPD control practice in subsequent projects. Second, we contribute to the literature on enabling control by showing how repairing multi-project control system can be a starting point for centralized control repair, requiring commitment from different management levels. Third, by bridging the two research areas, we identify possibilities for further research.     

Microfoundations of project portfolio regulation in joint university-industry laboratories

Joint university-industry laboratories (joint U-I labs) consist of a new, yet little understood model of academic partnership with the firms, typically involving the establishment of a collaborative research unit to conduct research and development (R&D) projects. This type of collaboration faces an ongoing challenge in dealing with the tension between the development and deployment focus in the project portfolio. While several studies have investigated project portfolio management in a given firm, little is known about the interorganizational portfolio management and how the actors manage tensions in joint U-I labs. This study aims to investigate the microfoundations of project portfolio management in joint U-I labs. By combining the multiple-case study and at-home ethnography methods, we identified that the regulation approach explains how partners in joint U-I labs dynamically adjust and manage the project portfolio. Based on the empirical findings, we propose a new framework for project portfolio management in joint U-I labs: portfolio regulation. This framework consists of four processes: dual scouting, dual matchmaking, joint selection, and bridgemaking. These microfoundations enable actors to strategically regulate the portfolio by increasing/decreasing resources related to development or deployment. Our study explores how portfolio regulation evolves within a joint U-I lab through four stages: formation, learning, reconfiguration, and joint portfolio. The proposed framework contributes to interorganizational R&D portfolio management theory and joint U-I lab portfolio management practice.