我国交通运输部门重塑能源的潜力路径和实施效果

本文回顾了我国交通运输全口径能耗历史变化情况,并采用情景分析和LEAP模型分析方法,对未来我国交通运输部门重塑能源的潜力路径和实施效果进行展望分析。研究发现,在参考情景下交通运输能耗会保持较快增长,对能源安全、区域环境、应对气候变化等带来严峻挑战。在充分考虑经济社会和交通运输发展最新趋势的基础上,在重塑情景下,通过合理引导交通服务需求、优化调整交通运输结构、加快清洁燃料替代以及显著提升交通设备能效水平,可以实现交通发展与能源、油品和碳排放的"三个脱钩",并持续提高综合交通能源效率,带来显著的经济、社会、环境效益。     

基于LMDI法与STIRPAT模型的中国碳排放量影响因素研究

利用Kaya恒等式和LMDI法分解模型,对我国碳排放量的影响因子进行分解,得出能源强度、能源结构、经济发展、人口规模因素对我国碳排放量的影响,建立STIRPAT模型并进行回归分析.结果 显示,随着能源强度降低、能源结构调整和经济的发展,我国的总碳排放量呈下降趋势.     

广州市碳排放达峰值分析

本文对城市达峰值的规律以及峰值研究方法进行了梳理,研究广州市碳排放峰值时先对广州市碳排放影响因素进行分解分析,随后基于相关规划对广州市的碳排放峰值进行了情景分析。结果表明,经济增长和人口规模是促进广州市碳排放的两个主要因素。经济增长是最重要的影响因素,未来人口增长将不会是碳排放增长的主要影响因素。产业结构、能源强度和碳排放系数都是减缓广州市碳排放的影响因素,其中能源强度的减排贡献度最大。未来广州市能源消费总量将持续增加,在高经济增速的情况下,广州市至2030年仍未达到碳排放峰值;在较低经济增速的情况下,广州市在2020年左右便可实现碳排放峰值。要实现碳排放达峰,必须引导合理的能源消费需求,加大节能力度;加快产业转型,大力发展低碳技术;大力发展天然气和新能源。
关键词：能源消费量;碳排放;峰值目标;广州市     

中国能源消费、经济增长和碳排放的互动关系研究

协调好能源、经济和碳排放三者的关系意义重大。我国经济社会发展与能源环境约束的矛盾日益突出,全面实现可持续发展依旧任重而道远。为此,基于我国1990~2013年的年度时间序列数据,运用计量经济学方法对我国能源消费、经济增长和碳排放的互动关系进行实证分析。首先对数据预处理以消除不平稳性,并进行相关性检验。将处理后所得数据进行稳定性检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验。然后利用脉冲响应分析和方差分解测算三者之间的冲击效应和影响程度。研究结果表明,1990~2013年间,能源消费、经济增长和碳排放三者存在长期均衡关系和短期动态调整机制;碳排放对能源消费和经济增长存在单向因果关系,能源消费对经济增长存在单向因果关系;能源消费、经济增长和碳排放短期内受到碳排放的冲击影响较大,三者的主要贡献因子均为碳排放。依据研究结论,提出加大科研投入、优化产业结构、提高能源利用率和强化低碳意识等对策建议。     

低碳视角下我国乡村能源碳排放空间格局研究

近年来我国乡村规划建设一日千里,进行乡村能源碳排放空间格局的研究对低碳乡村构建具有重要意义。本文以我国乡村地区为研究对象,通过碳排放核算方法及空间叠加分析法,从低碳视角研究了乡村能源碳排放的空间格局。研究表明商品能源将进一步替代非商品能源占据乡村能源市场,电力也将成为未来乡村主导能源;乡村能源碳排放空间格局与人均能源碳排放空间格局的局部反差,彰显出商品能源碳排放的主要影响及西部乡村能源利用方式的落后;电力碳间接排放的快速增长预示乡村应推动水能、风能、太阳能等清洁电力以替代高碳排的火电。     

辽宁省碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线实证研究

对辽宁省碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线进行检验,并分析了生成曲线的影响因素.实证研究结果表明,辽宁省碳排放量与人均GDP的关系呈现"倒U型"环境库兹涅茨曲线,且产业结构与能源结构的变化是生成环境库兹涅茨曲线的主要影响因素.可以预见,随着辽宁省产业结构和能源消费结构不断地优化,碳排放量将不断地下降.     

基于协整和ECM的中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系研究

该研究首先调查了1980～2010年间中国经济增长、能源消费与碳排放的长期均衡、短期动态调整和格兰杰因果关系.协整检验结果表明经济增长、能源消费与碳排放之间存在长期的均衡关系.格兰杰因果检验结果表明能源消费与碳排放具有双向格兰杰因果关系,经济增长是能源消费的格兰杰原因,但能源消费与碳排放均不是经济增长的格兰杰原因.能源消费的短期波动会受到GDP和碳排放短期波动的影响.并根据研究结果,提出了节能减排的相关建议.     

基于STIPRAT评估模型的中美碳排放与电力消费相互关系分析

美国和中国作为全球第一和第二大经济体,也是二氧化碳排放量最高的两个国家,两国在全球应对气候变化的进程中将发挥重要作用。采用1990～2019年相关数据,对中美经济、碳排放情况进行对比分析。结果表明,中美经济总量差距在不断缩小,但人均国民收入水平差距仍较大。中国碳排放总量始终处于增长态势,但人均碳排放量水平不高,碳排放强度较高,碳排放与经济发展呈现弱脱钩性;而美国近期碳排放量呈减少态势,人均碳排放量较大,碳排放强度较低,碳排放与经济发展呈现强脱钩性。散点图分析结果证明,中美经济与碳排放量的相互关系基本符合环境库兹涅茨曲线。通过对中美经济、人口、电力能源消费占比及碳排放等数据的整理分析,搭建STIPRAT评估模型,研究论证中美碳排放与电力消费的相互关系。线性回归模型数据表明,中国电力能源消费占比的提高有利于碳减排工作的开展;而美国由于电力能源消费占比长期保持在较平稳水平,线性回归模型数据拟合优度(R-squared)偏低,拟合可信度不高。根据模型拟合参数,建议我国要采取加大电力在能源消费终端利用率,提高电力能源的发电效率,增强清洁能源在电力供应侧比重等措施,以促进中国碳达峰的尽早实现。     

中国民航碳排放的历史特征及未来趋势预测

中国民航面临日益严峻的节能减排压力,亟需开展行业碳排放预测相关研究。从1990~2016年来看,总体上我国民航业的碳排放年增长率低于周转量年增长率,吨公里燃油消耗呈稳步下降趋势;但2010年后出现了碳排放增长率高于周转量增长率的情况,吨公里油耗略有上升。由于我国民航燃油效率已经处于较高水平,提升空间不大,未来将在一定程度上影响减排潜力。利用kaya模型和LMDI分解法分析中国民航碳排放的主要驱动因素和贡献率,并设定8种排放情景预测民航未来的碳排放量。结果表明,在影响民航碳排放的运输规模效应、能源强度效应、运输结构效应、能源替代效应等因素中,能源强度效应是抑制碳排放增长的主要因素,而运输规模效应则是促进碳排放增长的主导因素,运输规模增长将继续推动我国民航碳排放的增长,而依靠能源强度下降实现行业减排的潜力将越来越小;替代能源尚未发挥作用且未来发展趋势不明朗。根据预测,中国民航碳排放量2020年将达到1.32×108~1.35×108t,2035年的碳排放量是2020年的1.9~2.6倍,2050年的碳排放量是2020年的1.6~3.9倍。     

基于层次分析法的交通运输行业碳排放评估方法

由于交通运输行业碳排放评估精度低、耗时长,因此本文提出一种基于层次分析法的交通运输行业碳排放评估方法.根据能源、工业、交通、建筑等各行各业的减排路线图,得到交通运输行业碳排放的层次化结构分析模型.建立交通运输温室气体排放以及碳排放当量分析模型,结合城市的碳龄特征分析,实现交通碳排惯性参数分析,采用层次分析方法,实现对交通运输行业碳排放的优化评估.测试表明,该方法进行交通运输行业碳排放评估的准确性较高,减碳效果明显.     

我国新能源汽车发展对道路交通能源转型影响研究

本文首先通过Bass模型对各类新能源汽车动力技术/车型保有量变化趋势进行预测。在此基础上,采用LEAP模型测算了交通部门能源消费,并利用GREET模型的分析结果分两种情景预测了全生命周期温室气体排放量。研究发现,较混合动力汽车快速发展情景,新能源汽车普及情景下我国道路交通能耗及排放水平总量将显著下降,且能耗及排放峰值都将明显提前,新能源汽车的快速发展将对加速我国交通能源转型及温室气体减排起到关键作用。     

Energy demand and emissions from road transportation vehicles in China

Rapidly growing energy demand and emissions from China's road transportation vehicles in the last two decades have raised concerns over oil security, urban air pollution and global warming. This rapid growth will be likely to continue in the next two to three decades as the vehicle ownership level in China is still very low. The current status of China's road transport sector in terms of vehicles, infrastructure, energy use and emissions is presented. Mitigation measures implemented and those that can reasonably be expected to be adopted in the near future are analysed. Recent studies exploring the future trends of road vehicle energy demand and emissions under various strategies are reviewed. Moreover, those studies which assessed various fuel/propulsion options in China from a life cycle perspective are examined to present an overview of the potential for reducing energy use and emissions. Recommendations for further developments are also made. It is concluded that comprehensive and appropriate strategies will be needed to minimise the adverse impacts of China's road vehicles on energy resources and the environment. Fortunately, China appears to be heading in this direction.     

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.     

The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling

In this paper MARKAL-MACRO, an integrated energy-environment-economy model, is used to generate China’s reference scenario for future energy development and carbon emission through the year 2050. The results show that with great efforts on structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and energy substitution, China’s primary energy consumption is expected to be 4818 Mtce and carbon emission 2394 MtC by 2050 with annual decrease rate of 3% for the carbon intensity per GDP during the period 2000–2050. On the basis of this reference scenario, China’s marginal abatement cost curves of carbon for the year 2010, 2020 and 2030 are derived from the model, and the impacts of carbon emission abatement on GDP are also simulated. The results are compared with those from other sources. The research shows that the marginal abatement costs vary from 12US$/tC to 216US$/tC and the rates of GDP losses relative to reference range from 0.1% to 2.54% for the reduction rates between 5% and 45%. Both the marginal abatement costs and the rates of GDP losses further enlarge on condition that the maximum capacity of nuclear power is constrained to 240 GW or 160 GW by 2050. The paper concludes that China's costs of carbon abatement is rather high in case of carbon emissions are further cut beyond the reference scenario, and China's carbon abatement room is limited due to her coal-dominant energy resource characteristic. As economic development still remains the priority and per capita income as well as per capita carbon emission are far below the world average, it will be more realistic for China to make continuous contributions to combating global climate change by implementing sustainable development strategy domestically and playing an active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanisms rather than accepting a carbon emission ceiling.     

Scaling up concentrating solar thermal technology in China

More than 1300 GW new generating capacity will be added in China's power sector over the period 2005–2030 under the BAU scenario in [1], even higher than the total installed capacity in the United States to date. China’s industrial and service sectors are expected to maintain rapid development rate over the next decades, driving up the demand for electric power and heat. However, China’s power and industrial process heat generation are heavily relying upon coal-fired thermal power plants resulting in tremendous rise in greenhouse gas emissions. Clean technology such as concentrating solar thermal (CST) needs to play a more important role in power and heat generation in China to accelerate the decarbonisation in the power sector and commercial and industrial process heat generation cost-effectively. This paper attempts to explore the opportunity and challenge of development and deployment of CST in China from both technical and socioeconomic analysis perspectives. It is argued that rapid deployment of CST in China will contribute to enabling sustainable energy supply and environmental securities, as well as improved economic performance in new technology innovation in Asia Pacific area over the next decades. Supportive policy framework should be set up to encourage scaling up CST industry. The success of deployment of CST technology will also allow Chinese power and heat generators to strengthen their competitiveness in the context of intensified global constraint of carbon emissions. Institutional innovation and policy instruments for scaling up this technology and the enabling conditions of successful implementation are also investigated.     

Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The ‘Best Case’ scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the ‘Best Case’ scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated.     

Passenger transport modal split based on budgets and implication for energy consumption: Approach and application in China

Transport will be the strongest growing energy demand sector in the future, especially in developing countries like China, and it needs more attention. The evolution of transport structure is very important in the dynamic of transport development, and therefore worth emphasis. In this study, a modal split model maximizing spatial welfare and constrained by travel money budget and time budget is developed. This approach differs from the general econometric-based approach used in most existing macro transport studies and deals with the cost and speed of transport modes as important variables explicitly. The model is then applied to China's transport sector together with sensitivity test despite many data problems. The decomposition of energy consumption generated from bottom-up model based on this modal split identified the importance of modal split and turnover expansion in the next 30 years, which should be a stronger area of focus in transportation studies.     

Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector.     

我国交通运输行业能源消费和排放与典型国家的比较

交通运输行业作为能源消费增长最快的行业领域之一,对建设节约型社会战略的实施具有重要的影响。机动化水平的快速提高在消费大量燃油的同时也产生大量的污染排放物。本文依据相关统计资料,对比分析了中国与美国、日本在交通运输领域的能源消费与主要污染物排放水平,并分析了由于中国相关统计原因造成的能耗数据的差异。结合未来经济社会持续快速增长带动运输需求的快速持续增长的趋势,借鉴美国、日本等发达国家的发展趋势与经验教训,对未来中国交通运输业能源消费与减排进行了趋势性判断分析。     

Assessment of long-term sustainable end-use energy demand in Romania*

Romania is the 10th largest economy in EU-28 and also one of the fastest growing economies in the region. An end-use energy demand model is developed for Romania to assess energy requirement by sector and by end-use for 2015–2050 period. Industry would surpass residential sector as the largest final energy-consuming sector from 2035 onwards. Services sector would exhibit the fastest growth of energy consumption. Despite expected decline in country’s population, demand for electricity would grow in the future driven by increased household income and expanded services sector, which is relatively electricity intensive. Still, Romania’s per capita electricity consumption would be about half of the EU-28 average. At the end-use level, thermal processes in industry, space heating in the residential and services, and road passenger travel in transport sector would be dominant throughout the study period. Improvement of energy efficiency in the heating system exhibits the highest potential of energy saving.