Identification of Major Sources of Uncertainty in Current IWRM Practice. Illustrated for the Rhine Basin

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) can be viewed as a complex process in which the effect of adopted water management measures must be monitored and adjusted in an iterative way as new information and technology gradually become available under changing and uncertain external impacts, such as climate change. This paper identifies and characterises uncertainty as it occurs in the different stages of the IWRM process with respect to sources, nature and type of uncertainty. The present study develops a common terminology that honour the most important aspects from natural and social sciences and its application to the entire IWRM process. The proposed framework is useful by acknowledging a broad range of uncertainties regarding data, models, multiple frames and context. Relating this framework to the different steps of the IWRM cycle is helpful to determine the strategies to better handle and manage uncertainties. Finally, this general framework is illustrated for a case study in the transboundary Rhine river basin.     

Climate Change Risk Management in Transnational River Basins: The Rhine

Climate change is likely to have an impact on the discharge of the European river Rhine. To base adaptation strategies, to deal with these changing river discharges, on the best scientific and technical knowledge, it is important to understand potential climate impacts, as well as the capacity of social and natural systems to adapt. Both are characterized by large uncertainties, at different scales, that range from individual to local to regional to international. This review paper addresses three challenges. Dealing with climate change uncertainties for the development of adaptation strategies is the first challenge. We find that communication of uncertainties in support of river basin adaptation planning generally only covers a small part of the spectrum of prevailing uncertainties, e.g. by using only one model or scenario and one approach to deal with the uncertainties. The second challenge identified in this paper is to overcome the current mismatch of supply of scientific knowledge by scientists and the demand by policy makers. Early experiences with ‘assess-risk-of-policy’ approaches analysis of options, starting from the resilience of development plans, suggests that this approach better responds to policy makers’ needs. The third challenge is to adequately capture the transnational character of the Rhine river basin in research and policy. Development and implementation of adaptation options derived from integrated analysis at the full river basin level, rather than within the boundaries of the riparian countries, can offer new opportunities, but will also meet many practical challenges.     

Modeling of Water Resources Allocation and Water Quality Management for Supporting Regional Sustainability under Uncertainty in an Arid Region

In this study, a scenario-based interval-stochastic fraticle optimization with Laplace criterion (SISFL) method is developed for sustainable water resources allocation and water quality management (WAQM) under multiple uncertainties. SISFL can tackle uncertainties presented as interval parameters and probability distributions; meanwhile, it can also quantify artificial fuzziness such as risk-averse attitude in a decision-making issue. Besides, it can reflect random scenario occurrence under the supposition of no data available. The developed method is applied to a real case of water resources allocation and water quality management in the Kaidu-kongque River Basin, where encounter serve water deficit and water quality degradation simultaneously in Northwest China. Results of water allocation pattern, pollution mitigation scheme, and system benefit under various scenarios are analyzed. The tradeoff between economic activity and water-environment protection with interval necessity levels and Laplace criterions can support policymakers generating an effective and robust manner associated with risk control for WAQM under multiple uncertainties. These discoveries avail local policymakers gain insight into the capacity planning of water-environment to satisfy the basin’s integrity of socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability.     

莱茵河水资源管理的创新

1987年,"莱茵河行动计划"开始实施.截止2000年,该计划的实施使许多有害化合物的排放量及其在河流中的浓度显著降低.2000年底,欧盟水框架指令(EU WFD)颁布实施.指令要求,到2015年,欧盟境内所有水体应达到良好的化学与生态状态.对欧盟各成员国而言,执行EU WFD,特别是其具有约束力的时间表具有很大的挑战性.为此,编制完成了详细目录,并制订了监测计划.2009年底,将公布首个莱茵河流域管理规划(RBMP)及其措施计划.在重点介绍国际性、国家性和区域性措施的同时,将对RBMP的现状进行探讨.流域管理规划过程是周期性的,2015年不是终点,之后每6 a将对RBMP进行一次更新.     

贯彻实施新水法加强流域水行政管理

水行政管理是指国家对社会水事活动所实施的行政管理。流域水行政管理可以理解为,在江河、湖泊流域的范围内,由流域管理机构代表国家对社会水事活动所实施的行政管理。长江水利委员会(以下简称长委)作为水利部派出的流域管理机构,在长江流域和澜沧     

Integrated Water Management Approach for Adaptation to Climate Change in Highly Water Stressed Basins

Water Resources Management - Adaptation aims at increasing the resilience of natural and human systems to current and future impacts of climate change. The main objective of the current research is...     

Decision-making in Water Management under Uncertainty

Decision-making in water management requires the delivery of accurate scientific information. However, the task is challenging under the situation where a large amount of uncertainty exists in the available information (e.g., model outputs). This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the ranking of options in water management. Different methods for ranking the management options under uncertainty are reviewed and they account for only partial uncertainty information in model outputs. To consider the full uncertainty information, a new ranking procedure is proposed in this paper, which is capable of providing more information to decision makers and at the same time taking their opinions on uncertainty into consideration. The ranking is achieved by conducting pair-wise comparison of management options, on the basis of the risk defined by the probability of obtaining an unacceptable ranking and the mean difference in model outputs in pair-wise comparison. An application example is presented to illustrate the use of the proposed ranking approach. Furthermore, the sensitivity of management option ranking to different ranking methods and to model uncertainty is also investigated.     

Facilitation Model for Supporting Integrative Water Resource Management

In this paper, the Soft Systems Methodology foundations was integrated to a water resources management model to construct a facilitation process to support integrative water resources management. The facilitation model aims to achieve agreements over conflicts, by promoting engagement of actors to construct a common and holistic understanding about the problematic situation through an interactive, participative, clear, and transparent process. The facilitation model is divided into two phases: (i) Preparing Logistics and (ii) Work meeting. The first phase starts when a conflict emerges, then, the facilitator should prepare the logistics necessary to proceed with the examination of the problem, including the selection of volunteers who will compose the work group. The second phase is intended to the application of an interactive and participatory modeling approach organized into five steps: 1 - Expressing the problematic situation; 2 - Constructing a multi-sectoral representation; 3 - Examining the multi-sectoral representation; 4 - Building a conceptual model; and 5 - Exploring actions. To illustrate its application, we applied these steps to structure a real complex problematic situation that exists in an area of the watershed of the Paraiba do Norte River, in Northeastern Brazil. To construct a multi-sectoral representation of the problem, perspectives of different actors who are involved in the problem were considered. We conclude that the model is a powerful tool for the analysis of complex problems, for which there is no consensus regarding alternatives to solve/mitigate it and/or there is a high level of uncertainties involved in the decision-making process.

     

Mathematical Modelling for the Integrated Management of Water Resources in Hydrological Basins

Mathematical models are tools that can facilitate the instrumentation of the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). The first basin models to be developed were completely hydrological; today, due to the urgent need to plan the sustainable use of water resources, new models are needed that in addition to hydrology also incorporate social, economic, legal, environmental and other aspects. The objective of this work was to identify the characteristics that mathematical basin models must have in order to satisfy the requirements of IWRM. To achieve this, the conclusions of the main international conferences on water and the environment were analyzed; these were conferences in which IWRM was promoted as a strategy to face the challenges of both sectors. IWRM considers social participation as a key element in the decision-making process; consequently, the models must be accepted and applied, and their results interpreted, by those who participate in the process even if they are not modelling experts. This requires a change of perspective in the scientific community for the development of new IWRM models, in government institutions regarding their role as water administrators, and in water stakeholders regarding their role as decision-makers. The results of the analysis indicate that models for IWRM must be accessible to non-expert users, integrate different viewpoints, representing adequately the problem to be solved, in addition be flexible and have a structure focused on practical solutions.     

An Integrated Approach of System Dynamics,Orthogonal Experimental Design and Inexact Optimization for Supporting Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

An integrated approach of system dynamics (SD), orthogonal experimental design (OED) and inexact optimization modeling was proposed for water resources management under uncertainty. The developed method adopted a combination of SD and OED to identify key scenarios within multiple factors, through which interval solutions for water demands could be obtained as input data for consequential optimization modeling. Also, optimal schemes could be obtained in the combination of inexact two-stage stochastic programming and credibility constrained programming. The developed method was applied to a real-world case study for supporting allocation of multiple-source water resources to multiple users in Dalian city within a multi-year context. The results indicated that a lower credibility-satisfaction level would generate higher allocation efficiency, a higher system benefit and a lower system violation risk. The developed model could successfully reflect and address the variety of uncertainties through provision of credibility levels, which corresponds to the decision makers’ preference regarding the tradeoffs between system benefits and violation risks.     

Opportunities from Remote Sensing for Supporting Water Resources Management in Village/Valley Scale Catchments in the Upper Indus Basin

Now and in the future, the flows of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are and will be depended upon by hundreds of millions of people for their food security and economic livelihoods. Communities in the headwater reaches of the UIB—which contribute the bulk of runoff for the basin—are equally deserving of improved living conditions, but often lag behind downstream communities in benefitting from infrastructure. Harsh and highly variable climatic conditions pose specific challenges for local agricultural activities in the headwater reaches. Improved scientific understanding of tributary basin scale hydrology should support local development work as well as improvements to large scale infrastructure and water resource management. This study focuses on the challenge of providing meaningful quantitative information at the village/valley scale in the upper reaches of the UIB. The typology of the UIB hydrological regimes—as observed in large gauged basins—are examined, with special emphasis on annual cycles and interannual variability. Variations in river flows (as relative anomalies of discharge rates or runoff) are compared to observations of climate parameters (2 m air temperature, precipitation) from both local (point-based) observations and analogous parameters from remote sensing data products from the MODIS instrument. Although the temporal overlap is limited between river gauging data available to this study and the MODIS observational record, numerical analysis of relationships between relative anomalies in the spatial data and river gauging observations demonstrate promising potential of the former to serve as quantitative indicators of runoff anomalies. In order to translate these relationships to the scale of ungauged village/valley catchments, the available remotely sensed spatial data—snow covered area (SCA), land surface temperature derived (LST)—are assessed as analogues for meteorological point observations. The correlations between local (point-based) observations and remotely-sensed spatial data products are tested across a wide range of spatial aggregations. These spatial units range from the primary contributing area (nearly 200,000 km²) of the UIB at its downstream gauging station Besham to a small valley serving a minor settlement (10 km²). The shape and timing of annual cycles in SCA and LST are consistent across the range of spatial scales although the magnitudes of both intra-annual and interannual variability differ with both spatial scale and hydrological regime. The interannual variability exhibited by these spatial data products is then considered in terms of its potential implications for the smaller hydrological units. Opportunities for improvement and extension of this methodology are also discussed.     

Optimization Model for the Sustainable Water Resource Management of River Basins

Water Resources Management - This paper presents a new methodology for the sustainable and optimal allocation of water for a river basin management area. The model distinguishes between short and...     

Multi-criteria Decision Making for Integrated Urban Water Management

The city of Zahedan, in South-eastern Iran, has high population growth, limited local freshwater resources and inadequate water distribution system resulting in water supply failures in recent years. This paper will investigate integration of several demand management measures such as leakage detection on water distribution network, water metering and low volume water fixtures as well as the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources of this city. For integration of water management criteria, compromise programming will be used as a multi-objective decision making method. The criteria include minimizing the cost, maximizing water supply and minimizing the social hazards due to the water supply operations. This model will derive optimum long-term plans for implementation of water resources. The results will show that demand management can delay a water transfer project for Zahedan city up to 10 years. Compromise programming is as an efficient tool for integrated water resources management in urban areas and the method is capable to being used by decision-makers in other cases.     

An Approach for Supporting Problem Structuring in Water Resources Management and Planning

The watershed committees in Brazil often face difficulties to find out consensus solution for problems in water resources management and planning, due to multiple participants with different backgrounds, differences of opinion, conflict of interests and differences in perceiving and interpretation of problem and solution. This situation results in conflicts and consequently put activities of committees at risk. The Problem Structuring Methods – PSMs are techniques to structure problems and analyze similar type of problems. PSMs offer a way of representing the situation to provide clarity to participants in understanding the problem and lead to converging on potential agreeable actions for at least partial resolutions. This paper presents a group decision approach for supporting water resources management and planning, based on the use of the PSM Strategic Options Development and Analysis – SODA, which performs the cognitive mapping of individuals. The approach promotes a common understanding about a complex situation under investigation, assisting the group in identification of a course of actions for solving the problem. The approach is intended to support Brazilian watershed committees and it was applied to the committee of the Paraíba River watershed in northeastern Brazil. Using this approach, the committee identified inadequate watershed management as a major issue that must be undertaken in order to achieve mitigation of watershed degradation.     

Problems of Sustainable Groundwater Management in an Area of Over-exploitation: The Upper Guadiana Catchment,Central Spain

The problem of achieving sustainable groundwater management in areas of over-exploitation is examined by using the upper Guadiana basin in central Spain as an example. Here, since the early 1970s, high rates of abstraction to provide water for irrigation have lowered the water table by up to 50 m, causing the main rivers to run dry and an internationally renowned wetland to become desiccated. Conflict between farmers, regulators and conservationists has created a difficult problem that legal action, subsidies and engineering solutions have so far failed to combat. Faced with conflicting demands, it is suggested that integrated catchment management provides the best way forward. The various issues that need to be addressed with this type of management system are outlined.     

Rules and Roles in Water Policy and Management

Abstract

Water policy and management are currently subject to a significant change. Water users and other stakeholders are gradually playing a much more active and also constructive role. This is no substitute for government efforts. Public sector activities and regulatory arrangements are of vital importance. Traditional functions and orientation of work need, however, to be modified, and new tasks are forcing themselves on to the national, municipal, and local agendas. Interaction between government, civil society organizations, and professionals must be based on a policy where water is made everybody's business and where the various components of management, i.e., development of the resource, provision, actual use, and disposal after use, are considered. With a policy where the relations between water, people, development, and the environment are duly recognised, it becomes imperative and natural that the rules for water management are defined that allow various stakeholders to contribute to achieve water security.     

Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions

This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa; adjust irrigation water management; select crop types; facilitate planning; estimate crop yields before harvesting, and consequently to forecast market price development. Remote sensing data and economic analysis can also be used to study the spatial distribution of water consumption as an indicator of equity in access to water resources. It even enables identification of farms that consume more irrigation water than formally allocated. Finally, it provides a basis to assess the cost-effectiveness of various ways to reduce agricultural water consumption. So, this approach is potentially useful for determining water consumption, refining water allocation policies, and determining the potential for water transfers through mechanisms such as water trading.     

A Comparative Analysis of Water Governance,Water Management,and Environmental Performance in River Basins

River ecosystems are facing a diversity of threats in many parts of the world. To restore and preserve riverine environments, human societies have established water governance and management responses. However, the means by which a satisfactory environmental state can be achieved in light of different regional contexts is still poorly understood. This article explores whether or not good environmental performance can be achieved through water governance and management in combination with further context factors. To this end, we applied fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to examine data on water governance, water management, and environmental performance from a recent international study together with context data on per capita income, corruption, hydro-climate, and use pressure from other datasets. Results demonstrate that the combination of polycentric governance, high per capita income, and low levels of corruption is sufficient for achieving good water management practice. However, a good environmental state in river basins seems to primarily depend upon the overall level of pressure from human use rather than the quality of water management. This demonstrates that water governance and management should be seen as part of a broader societal transformation towards sustainability that focusses on a reduction of pressures in river basins instead of mitigating their impacts.