Modeling river water quality parameters using modified adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system

Water quality is always one of the most important factors in human health. Artificial intelligence models are respected methods for modeling water quality. The evolutionary algorithm(EA) is a new technique for improving the performance of artificial intelligence models such as the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system(ANFIS) and artificial neural networks(ANN). Attempts have been made to make the models more suitable and accurate with the replacement of other training methods that do not suffer from some shortcomings, including a tendency to being trapped in local optima or voluminous computations. This study investigated the applicability of ANFIS with particle swarm optimization(PSO)and ant colony optimization for continuous domains(ACO_R) in estimating water quality parameters at three stations along the Zayandehrood River, in Iran. The ANFIS-PSO and ANFIS-ACO_R methods were also compared with the classic ANFIS method, which uses least squares and gradient descent as training algorithms. The estimated water quality parameters in this study were electrical conductivity(EC), total dissolved solids(TDS), the sodium adsorption ratio(SAR), carbonate hardness(CH), and total hardness(TH). Correlation analysis was performed using SPSS software to determine the optimal inputs to the models. The analysis showed that ANFIS-PSO was the better model compared with ANFIS-ACO_R. It is noteworthy that EA models can improve ANFIS' performance at all three stations for different water quality parameters.     

Assessing flood vulnerability using a rule-based fuzzy system

Population growth and urbanization in the last decades have increased the vulnerability of properties and societies in flood-prone areas. Vulnerability analysis is one of the main factors used to determine the necessary measures of flood risk reduction in floodplains. At present, the vulnerability of natural disasters is analyzed by defining the various physical and social indices. This study presents a model based on a fuzzy rule-based system to address various ambiguities and uncertainties from natural variability, and human knowledge and preferences in vulnerability analysis. The proposed method is applied for a small watershed as a case study and the obtained results are compared with one of the index approaches. Both approaches present the same ranking for the sub-basin's vulnerability in the watershed. Finally, using the scores of vulnerability in different sub-basins, a vulnerability map of the watershed is presented.     

自适应神经模糊系统的地基承载力组合模型

碎石桩为处理软基的常用方法之一,其承载力除用静荷载试验确定外,一般用经验公式计算。但目前各公式采用的方法与理论依据不同,涉及的物理力学参数各有所侧重,难以反映诸多因素对承载力的影响。为克服单个模型(经验公式)的局限性与不确定性,在MATLAB环境下,采用非线性映射能力的自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)建立了碎石桩复合地基承载力组合模型。实例分析表明,组合模型预测相对误差小于3%,优于各子模型,其精度满足工程应用要求,为确定地基承载力提供了一种新的方法。     

工程在线监控及反馈分析系统综合推理库

 通过深入研究推理流程、推理模型,详尽探讨了水口水电站工程系统综合推理库的设计和实现。基于模块化设计思想,并遵循重点突出、兼顾全面的原则,采用了清晰、合理的推理流程。系统综合推理库具有及时发现疑点测值,实时分析疑点成因,准确评价大坝工作性态的功能。试运行结果表明,该推理库设计合理、功能完善、操作简便,为实时监控和综合评价大坝的安全性态提供了有力的技术支持。     

柴河流域防洪安全实时监控系统的研究与建设

在柴河流域水情自动测报系统应用的基础上,相继开发了大坝安全监控、视频监控、闸门远程控制及防汛会商室,通过信息平台进行系统集成,形成了柴河流域防洪安全实时监控系统。内容包括系统组成、逻辑结构、工作流程及关键技术的研究,同时对系统的功能和作用做了详细阐述。     

蓄滞洪区二维洪水演进系统的建立

应用二维洪水演进数学模型的计算结果,通过运用VC 、数据库等的混合编程,建立了一套融地理信息系统、 查询、检索和办公自动化为一体的二维洪水演进系统,为防洪规划和调度服务。     

多波束测深方法对坝下泄洪消能建筑物冲刷破坏的检测

为了无损检测坝下泄洪消能建筑物的冲刷破坏程度,将多波束测深方法从海洋测绘引进到水电站检测,结合水下机器人视频验证,对某水电站的坝下泄洪消能建筑物中的冲刷破坏情况进行检测,以查明水泥混凝土护坦的冲刷破坏程度以及边墙的淘刷深度。通过检测的过程及资料分析,确定了多波速测深系统无信号屏蔽的适用条件,对冲刷、磨损、淘空等精细检测特征进行了总结。结果表明,多波束测深系统对冲刷磨损情况检测效果良好,可以清晰判断冲刷磨损范围及程度,对混凝土错台现象反应明显;对冲刷淘空情况检测效果较好,对冲坑部位水下地形绘制精确,对淘空区域的范围及深度判断较好。     

Transboundary flood management in the Rhine basin: challenges for improved cooperation.

An appropriate institutional set up is essential for efficient transboundary flood management in the Rhine basin, particularly in view of future uncertainties like climate change. Flood management factors are identified based on a historical comparison in the Netherlands and Germany. They include differences in the perception of the problem and how to solve it; in the understanding of key items and how to address them; in administrative responsibilities and the political will to act. Suggestions are made to improve cooperation, in particular to generate a common problem perception and problem analysis, to develop a common vision for future flood strategies and to create a network of discussion platforms to promote social learning and to prepare, decide and implement flood management issues.     

高坝泄洪安全关键技术研究

我国位于狭窄河谷的大型水利水电工程在泄洪方面的主要特点是高水头、大流量、大泄洪功率,泄洪安全问题十分突出.文中总结并探讨了我国在高坝泄洪消能防护、泄洪振动控制、泄洪雾化防护、掺气减蚀、泄洪安全预警等方面技术的主要研究进展,提出了提高有关泄洪安全性的技术途径,可供有关工程设计和研究参考.     

涉河项目防洪安全评价指标体系初步研究

为了将防洪评价工作标准化、定量化和规范化,以建立涉河工程的防洪评价指标体系。针对目前岸线开发利用与河道管理现状,在总结大量涉河项目防洪评价的基础上,分目标层、准则层和指标层建立了包括河势稳定、行洪畅通、防洪工程安全、防洪标准、水利规划及其他影响6个方面共21个指标的涉河项目防洪安全评价指标体系,给出了相应指标的赋值标准。采用模糊评价和层次分析相结合的方法,建立了防洪安全指标层次结构模型,可得到能够反映涉河项目防洪安全度的综合评价指数,并结合工程实例验证了该方法体系的适用性。     

基于改进可拓物元模型的防洪体系风险评价

根据可拓集合理论构建并分析了物元可拓评价模型,指出了该模型在风险评价中存在待评物元超出节域而无法计算的局限性。针对物元可拓综合评价模型的局限性,对原构建的物元可拓评价模型进行了改进,即对每个量值都进行规格化处理,并用于防洪工程体系实例分析。结果表明,改进的物元可拓风险评价方法科学合理且计算简便,并考虑了相关性对风险等级评估的影响,有着广阔的应用推广前景。     

防洪设计标准和大坝的防洪安全

防洪设计标准的选择就其本质而言是风险决策问题．本文着重分析了这一标准的内涵及其对大坝防洪安全的影响．采用事故树分析方法，逐层顺序讨论了漫坝失事事故的形成，定量给出了相应的防洪风险率，校核了现有大坝的总体设防水准．在此基础上，论证了合理选择大坝防洪设计标准的原则和方法．     

大坝防洪安全的评估和校核

洪水漫坝风险失事，是影响大坝安全的主要原因之一。本文寻求一种既能反映大坝防洪系统随机性和模糊性，又能合理描述大坝防洪能力的风险模型，以实现对大坝防洪能力的定量化，进而为已建大坝和待建大坝的防洪安全评估和校核创造条件。     

Model for real-time optimal flood control operation of a reservoir system

A methodology and model have been developed for the real-time optimal flood operation of river-reservoir systems. This methodology is based upon combining a nonlinear programming model with a flood-routing simulation model within an optimal control framework. The generalized reduced gradient code GRG2 is used to perform the nonlinear optimization and the simulator is the U.S. National Wheather Service DWOPER code. Application of the model is illustrated through a case study of Lake Travis on the Lower Colorado River in Texas.     

雅砻江大河湾防洪安全与决策支持系统研究

针对雅砻江锦屏二级水电站泄洪时,会对下游大河湾产生一定安全影响的问题,根据雅砻江大河湾地形地貌、历年实测水文数据以及锦屏二级泄洪方案,建立雅砻江大河湾防洪安全与决策支持系统,为水库泄洪安全及下游防洪决策提供技术支撑。该系统主要包括防洪安全信息维护和防洪安全与决策支持模型两大模块。从系统的建设目标、总体架构、开发设计及系统功能展示等方面进行了详细阐述。该系统通过各功能模块的交互工作,实现对泄洪区域防洪安全的辅助管理和决策支持,降低了下游河段的泄洪风险,确保了人民群众的生命财产安全。     

高位渠道安全度汛措施

以容县满垌水库高位渠道安全度汛的实践为例,分析了高位渠道的现实危害及潜在风险,探讨了如何做好高位渠道的安全度汛,防灾减灾,预防渠道安全事故的工程措施和非工程措施。     

浅论广西大坝安全鉴定中防洪复核存在的若干问题

论述了广西水库大坝安全鉴定中防洪标准复核存在的一些常见问题,对基本资料的复核、防洪标准、设计暴雨、设计洪水、调洪演算等问题进行了分析和探讨,并提出了有效的解决方法。     

Development of a method for assessing flood vulnerability.

Over the past few decades, a growing number of studies have been conducted on the mechanisms responsible for climate change and the elaboration of future climate scenarios. More recently, studies have emerged examining the potential effects of climate change on human societies, including how variations in hydrological regimes impact water resources management. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's third assessment report, climate change will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle, resulting in greater variability in precipitation patterns and an increase in the intensity and frequency of severe storms and other extreme events. In other words, climate change will likely increase the risks of flooding in many areas. Structural and non-structural countermeasures are available to reduce flood vulnerability, but implementing new measures can be a lengthy process requiring political and financial support. In order to help guide such policy decisions, a method for assessing flood vulnerability due to climate change is proposed. In this preliminary study, multivariate analysis has been used to develop a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), which allows for a comparative analysis of flood vulnerability between different basins. Once fully developed, the FVI will also allow users to identify the main factors responsible for a basin's vulnerability, making it a valuable tool to assist in priority setting within decision-making processes.     

纸坊沟流域山洪灾害综合防治体系建设探索

通过对纸坊沟流域山洪沟道治理工程设计要点、工程布置、工程效益、实施和运行经验进行分析总结,探索将山洪沟道治理工程与已建成的小流域综合治理水土保持工程以及山洪灾害治理非工程措施结合起来,构建纸坊沟流域山洪灾害综合防治体系,对保障纸坊沟流域和平凉市东城区20多万人口生命与财产安全具有重要意义。     

Measurement of the flood discharge of a small-sized river using an existing digital video recording system

In this study, a closed-circuit television (CCTV) system, installed for surveillance purposes, is utilized to measure the flow rate during a flood. The procedure to determine both the angle and scale-factor of the camera is described. Then, image analysis techniques, namely the direct visual measurement method, Large-Scale PIV (LSPIV) and Space-Time Image Velocimetry (STIV), are applied to the video images recorded by the CCTV camera. The results of these methods and the conventional float measurement are compared. In addition, the accuracy of the respective methods is discussed. A set of low-quality video images of a flood during a thunderstorm that occurred under the dark ambient conditions (midnight) is analyzed using three image-based methods. The transition of the flow rate during the event is successfully estimated.