空袭目标威胁评估的神经网络模型

空袭目标的威胁评估是防空作战决策和指挥的基本依据,是实现防空作战指挥自动化的环节之一,它的研究对防空作战有着重要的意义.本文在分析影响空袭目标威胁度因素的基础上,结合多属性决策权值的不确定性,利用神经网络的特点,建立威胁目标评估的神经网络模型.根据专家评估的训练样本,通过仿真证明了用神经网络模型评估空袭目标的威胁度的可行性,最后给出了威胁排序准则.     

现代空战目标分配

在分析敌目标威胁、我方飞机拦截敌目标空战优先指数,拦截目标需时的基础上,建立空战目标分配效能公式,并应用匈牙利算法对该目标分配模型进行求解.     

威胁诉求对驾驶安全的影响:有效与无效

目的 为探讨威胁诉求策略在各国道路交通安全活动中的应用现状,厘清威胁诉求对驾驶安全的影响。方法 采用文献分析法对关于威胁诉求与驾驶安全有效性与无效性争论的实证研究进行了对比;重点梳理文献结果不一致的地方,并分析了导致不一致的原因;归纳了现有研究的局限性,指出未来研究的趋势。结果 威胁诉求起作用的关键在于威胁唤醒程度、严重性、可感知性、诱导的情绪体验以及有效的可执行的建议与措施,要综合考虑各种因素来评估其效果。结论 未来研究可综合这些因素来确定道路安全活动中威胁诉求的最佳类型。     

卫星军事应用系统作战效能评估的网络层次分析法研究

根据卫星军事应用系统的特点研究了基于网络层次分析法的效能评估方法．确立了效能评价的准则，给出了影响其作战效能的指标集，建立了网络层次分析法控制层和网络层模型，并且利用计算极限超矩阵的方法对单个准则下各方案的作战效能进行排序．最后，通过对单个准则下的排序向量进行加权求和获得卫星军事应用系统作战效能的排序向量．     

基于模糊层次分析的跑道侵入风险评估

目的在模糊层次分析理论的基础上,本文从"人-环境-管理"四维度对造成跑道侵入的主要风险因素进行分析,运用基本排序的方法进行单排序,最终得到所有风险因素的危险度排序,从而为跑道安全运行提出相应措施。方法首先构造了1个准则层和4个指标层的三角模糊互补判断矩阵;其次运用模糊层次分析法对造成跑道侵入的主要因素进行了初步分析,克服了层次分析法中判断矩阵的一致性检验过程相当繁琐而且不易操作的缺点;最后利用所述的三角模糊数排序法对跑道侵入风险20个因素进行危险度总排序。结果本文得出7个影响跑道运行安全水平风险因素的重要程度排序,与实际运行结果状况基本相符。结论本文提出的方法能够较好地评估跑道侵入风险因素的危险程度,根据评估结果可有针对性地提出减少和预防跑道侵入风险控制措施,具有一定的实用性。     

基于变权层次分析法的管制员应激管理研究

目的空中交通管制员由于工作压力大,精神高度紧张,在工作时极易产生过度应激。本文通过对应激源进行风险评估排序,为空管应激管理提供相应对策。方法首先通过层次分析法,构造判断矩阵,依照专家评分对各应激源进行权重的初步分析和排序;接着运用变权层次分析法,结合某管制单位实例进行验证分析,克服了层次分析法的固定权重导致非公正性评估的弊端,最终得出一个符合实际的总排序。结果本文最终得出的各应激源的权重排序符合实际,基于此提出的应激管理对策具有实用意义。结论以上研究提出的应激管理对策,能够为研究管制员的应激和规避应激引发的不安全事件提供科学依据和保障。     

基于层次分析法的儿童智能手表设计评价研究

目的解决产品设计方案后期评价问题。方法提出了一种基于层次分析法(AHP)的设计评估方法,首先将产品分解为若干待评价的指标并对其进行评价打分,整理数据并计算出各指标的权重值,最终得出各方案的综合得分进而排序。结果通过3款儿童智能手表的市场销售调查数据验证了该排序结果的准确性,为产品设计方案的有效评估提供了参考。结论将层次分析法引入设计评价中,可有效降低设计评价中待评估要素多、对评估者的经验知识依赖大、各因素与最终方案之间的影响关系难以判断等问题所带来的不利影响。     

心流理论下公共健身服务设施设计评估研究

目的 为提供不仅能加强用户黏性以形成激励循环,还能提高用户使用专注度的公共健身服务设施,提出将心流理论、AHP层次分析法和模糊综合评价法理论融合形成产品设计评估的研究方法。方法 首先,提炼心流理论各阶段下公共健身设施的设计需求,构建心流阶段设计要素评估指标体系;其次,利用AHP层次分析法进行定性分析和定量分析,经计算与检验得出具有客观性的综合权重排序,根据排序结果指导智慧划船机健身设施的设计实践;最后,运用模糊综合评价法进行设计评估验证,得到最佳设计方案,并进行改善。结果 经过研究与分析,设计了心流理论、AHP层次分析法和模糊综合评价法结合的产品设计评估理论方法,并以智慧划船机为例进行了理论研究方法的可行性验证。结论 多理论结合的产品设计方法,有助于进行公共健身服务设施的设计指导与方案评估,在使健身用户获得最优健身体验的同时,也为同类产品设计提供理论参考。     

基于模糊贝叶斯网络的态势威胁评估模型

针对传感器测量数据的不确定性,提出基于模糊贝叶斯网络的态势威胁评估模型,该模型首先将不确定性数据分为模糊域和概率域两大类,然后在模糊域使用模糊综合评判得到威胁目标的动态威胁度,接着运用可能性概率转换理论将模糊表示的动态威胁度转化成概率域知识,最后在概率知识域使用贝叶斯网络推理算法得到目标的威胁等级.实例计算表明,该方法能够较好的反映威胁源的威胁等级,为武器系统选择跟踪打击目标提供决策依据,具有一定的实用性.     

基于模糊AHP的岸基侦察预警能力评估

为了解岸基侦察预警体系对海上目标的侦察预警能力和促进情报保障能力的发挥,进行了基于模糊层次分析法(AHP)的侦察预警能力评估研究。首先,在综合考虑装备性能、战术运用和信息化水平等多方面影响因素的基础上,用层次分析法和模糊评判相结合的方法建立了岸基侦察预警能力评估指标体系,构建了评估模型,然后结合实例对岸基侦察预警能力进行定性与定量相结合的评估。评估结果表明,该方法可有效解决岸基侦察预警能力评估中存在的模糊性和不确定性。     

总承包工程PDMs决策模型研究与应用

针对传统模型未考虑决策者在决策问题上的不确定性因素而可能导致方案排序不稳定的问题,应用不确定多属性(UMA)理论对总承包工程交易模式(PDMs)决策进行了研究。根据总承包工程交易模式的不确定性因素提出了模型假设条件,选择了模型构建的不确定多属性理论工具,应用UEOWA算子和ULHA算子构建了基于可能度矩阵排序向量的决策支持模型;建立了我国总承包工程交易模式决策问题的属性评价体系,通过工程实例说明了模型的决策步骤和方法。     

Cost-benefit AHPSort for performance analysis of offshore providers

The performance of a company is largely affected by that of its providers as they are a direct factor that determines product prices, flexibility and quality. It is, therefore, important to measure their performance. Several aspects need to be measured but traditional multi-criteria decision methods (MCDM) do not benchmark but only rank providers. Multi-criteria decision sorting methods are well indicated to benchmark activities into classes. In this paper, we present a modification of the AHPSort sorting method, where cost and benefit criteria are kept separate for a better and easier comparison. A case study in the aerospace industry will illustrate the efficacy of the new Cost-Benefit AHPSort method. The results will help managers to make specific decisions concerning their current offshore providers. They will also give valuable feedback for providers in order to improve their performance. Additionally, the findings enable a definition of benchmarking that will support future evaluations.     

基于BP神经网络的个性化多功能茶几设计研究

目的 通过分析消费者感性需求和多功能茶几产品形态设计要素,建立二者之间回归的联系模型,完成多功能茶几产品的个性化设计,解决茶几产品无法按照用户消费需求设计制造的难题。方法 首先运用语义差异法获取消费者对茶几产品的感性意象评价值,并利用因子分析法对评价值进行归纳整理,其次按照茶几产品设计要素对其进行模块解构,并对各部分模块进行数值化编码,再次根据整理的感性意象评价值和模块数值训练茶几产品BP神经网络,建立二者间映射关系,最后实施二次语义差异法问卷实验,验证BP神经网络的准确性。结果 根据训练的茶几产品BP神经网络可预测出感性评价值最大的茶几产品造型,实验结果验证了茶几产品BP神经网络模型的准确性,为茶几产品的个性化设计提供了有利的支撑。结论 此方法提高了茶几产品的设计效率,提升了茶几产品设计的合理性,解决了家具设计者无法精准按照用户主观需求完成客观产品设计的难题,为以消费者需求市场为导向的产品设计制造提供了有益的参考和指导。     

Optimisation of multi-stage JIT production-pricing decision: centralised and decentralised models and algorithms

This research studies the optimal decision for product pricing, production lot sizing in a multi-stage serial just-in-time production system with kanban-controlled policy. A decentralised decision model and a centralised decision model of this problem are formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem. In order to solve the models, three algorithms are developed. The first one is an approximate procedure which solves the decentralised decision model; the second one is a proximate optimal procedure using two-phase search technique that solves the centralised decision model, and the third one is an approximate method using meta-heuristic technique which is used for both decentralised and centralised models. Numerical example shows that centralised decision can obtain higher economic benefit with lower cost and higher revenue and profit. Meanwhile, when demand is more price sensitive, centralised decision can achieve significant profit enhancement. Computational results attribute to different characteristics of the problem and solution superiority.     

Automated retrieval and ranking of similar parts in agile manufacturing

The environment considered is an agile enterprise where manufacturing partners share product related data to come up with new, customized, and high quality products at minimal leadtimes. Given this context, this paper addresses the problem of identifying existing parts that are similar, in one or many characteristics, to a new part at the design stage. The proposed method is based on the principles of group technology (GT), and on the definition of the neighborhood of similarity of critical design attributes. A two-step procedure is proposed: (1) a search procedure, which acquires and processes the designer's search intent to retrieve similar parts; and (2) a sorting procedure, which ranks these parts in order of their similarity to the candidate part. Both procedures are based on GT codes, while the second can employ more detailed critical design information. This information is assumed available in the product databases of distributed partners, and can be generated via an existing GT design processor. The approach employs a systematic procedure to combine independent similarity indexes to a unique measure for sorting. A software system using object-oriented technology has been developed to implement the procedure.     

基于大数据价值聚焦的产品设计方法

目的 提出基于大数据的价值聚焦分析和设计方法,帮助设计师与企业解决有效处理和应用大数据,通过基于大数据的价值聚焦（商业价值、产品价值与用户价值）分析,锚定设计价值和产品定义,开发出市场热销与用户喜爱的“爆品”产品。方法 主要采用文献研究和案例分析方法,研究大数据清洗获得价值聚焦及价值传受过程,提出一种基于大数据价值聚焦的前设计周期与设计周期产品设计方法。结果 以大数据的价值聚焦为理论基础,实现产品设计从大数据分析到价值聚焦再到设计方案的可行和实操流程,即大数据清洗、大数据分拣和大数据决策,挖掘商业价值、产品价值和用户价值以及相应的价值区间,提出从大数据清洗到价值聚焦（价值与价值区间）,以及生成产品定义与概念样机的设计流程模型。结论 通过大数据价值聚焦生成设计价值和产品定义,回归设计问题与价值问题的本质,是完全面向市场,实现爆款产品设计的途径和设计方法。基于大数据价值聚焦的产品设计,是一种结构清晰、可操作性强的全设计周期的设计方法,可以透过有效的设计流程实现完整的价值传受。     

用户集群驱动的适老化产品优化策略研究

目的 为解决用户诉求表述模糊所导致的需求获取不足、设计决策复杂难定等问题对适老化产品及应用服务推广的阻碍,最大程度提升用户体验满意度,提出一种用户集群评价驱动的短周期、高效率的感性设计方法。方法 引入评价信息对目标用户集群的需求进行精准而真实地深层挖掘,结合TextRank算法量化感性描述文本,构建评价指标体系;充分借助犹豫模糊决策算法构建方案评价模型(I-HFCJM),计算各产品评价指标得分函数值对样本产品优劣予以可视化分析,以现有产品的可借鉴点与注意问题为依据指导产品改进设计。结论 以老年家用制氧机改进设计为例,计算改进方案同样本产品的综合权重并进行优劣排序,验证了该方法的有效性,为老年家用制氧机及其他适老化产品设计开发提供了改进策略。     

OPTIMIZING MULTI-RESPONSE PROBLEMS IN THE TAGUCHI METHOD BY FUZZY MULTIPLE ATTRIBUTE DECISION MAKING

One of the conventional approaches used in off-line quality control is the Taguchi method. However, most previous Taguchi method applications have only dealt with a single-response problem and the multi-response problem has received only limited attention. The theoretical analysis in this study reveals that Taguchi's quadratic loss function and the indifference curve in the TOPSIS (Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) method have similar features. The Taguchi method deals with a one-dimensional problem and TOPSIS handles multi-dimensional problems. As a result, the relative closeness computed in TOPSIS can be used as a performance measurement index for optimizing multi-response problems in the Taguchi method. Next, an effective procedure is proposed by applying fuzzy set theory to multiple attribute decision making (MADM). The procedure can reduce the uncertainty for determining a weight of each response and it is a universal approach which can simultaneously deal with continuous and discrete data. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is verified with an example of analysing a plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PECVD) process experiment. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Driving experience moderates the effect of implicit versus explicit threat priming on hazard perception test

Due to the controversial evidence regarding the efficacy of threat campaigns on driving behavior, we addressed the effects of explicit vs. implicit threats. As in other areas of advertisements, we hypothesized that an implicit threat would be more effective, i.e., generate more anxiety than an explicit threat. Furthermore, we hypothesized that such effects would be moderated by driving experience: more experienced drivers when threatened will rely on driving skills and perform in a less cautious manner vs. less experienced drivers who have not yet acquired these skills, and therefore will tend to calm their fear by exercising more caution. Driving behavior in this experimental design was addressed by the Hazard Perception (HP) task. Results were as expected. Anxiety was higher under implicit vs. explicit threat. HP scores however were overall the same for both groups. Implicit priming generated less-cautious behavior in high-experienced drivers while generating more caution for less-experienced drivers. Demonstrating in a single experiment all three driving patterns following threat, namely, no change in driving behavior (whole sample), more cautious driving behavior (less-experience) and less cautious behavior (more-experience), potentially comprises an important step in resolving the aforementioned disparity concerning effects of threat campaigns on driving behavior.