工程造价管理成熟度模型的分析

为了提高建设工程造价管理的能力,根据项目管理成熟度模型,分析项目管理的子部分“工程造价管理”,建立其成熟度等级,并根据工程造价全生命周期管理过程,建立其成熟度模型。运用AHP-模糊评价方法对工程造价成熟度体系进行其成熟度评测,分析出影响整个工程造价管理成熟度的重要因素,并对该体系的层次总排序进行一致性检验。通过成本绩效指数对工程造价管理成熟度价值进行了整体评价,给企业提供了一种衡量组织造价管理能力的方法,有助于提高企业造价管理水平和企业竞争力。     

Modeling the Dynamics of an Infrastructure Project

Abstract:   Contractors frequently encounter various problems during project construction, even when properly employing traditional project management techniques and tools. These problems result in low project performance and poor project outcome. A dynamic simulation model is proposed to capture the dynamics of construction projects in the construction phase. Eight key feedback structures from previous models of project dynamics and the unique characteristics of construction projects are identified as dynamic hypotheses. They include the structures of labor, equipment, material, labor and equipment interaction, schedule, rework, safety, and quality. Subsequently, a formal simulation model is mathematically formulated in terms of stock and flow diagrams. The model is then calibrated into a real project under construction. Part of testing indicates that the simulated behavior of the model and the actual behavior of the project are similar. This implies that the model is able to simulate the dynamics of the project and, consequently, to enhance project monitoring and control.     

山区公路工程施工风险评价研究

近年来,随着人们对山区公路项目引发的各类问题的关注,山区公路项目因各种不确定性因素所引起的风险正日益受到重视,如何辨识公路项目施工过程中的风险并加以有效分析,进一步降低山区公路施工风险源,是山区公路项目所亟待解决的重要问题。依据山区公路项目的特点,对山区公路项目的风险管理展开研究,在山区公路项目影响因素分析基础上,结合可拓理论和模糊数学理论,建立山区公路项目风险综合评价模型。并将评价模型应用于案例中,从分析结果来看,该方法具体可行性和适用性,可为有效控制公路工程施工风险管理提供借鉴。     

多项目并行施工危险源管理研究

鉴于现行危险源评价中针对多项目并行施工危险源的评价方法较少。结合多项目的特点,运用模糊数学理论、马尔科夫理论和可靠性理论,建立了基于可靠性分析的模糊马尔科夫模型,为总项目部进行危险源控制提供了理论依据,减少了其对危险源进行盲目控制,从而也起到节约成本的作用。将此模型运用于某小区建设危险源评价中,计算结果表明,下一时段第一与第四项目部的深基坑护壁强度不够所产生危险的概率比较大,应对基坑进行加固,第二与第三项目部危险源所产生的危险等级概率在可接受范围内,与工程实施中的反馈信息基本一致。     

基于PCA-GA-BP 的工程项目工期风险预测研究

为了在工程项目实施前准确地预测出工期风险的大小,在介绍BP 神经网络、遗传算法、主成分分析等理论的基础上,针对现有预测模型的缺点以及BP 神经网络自身缺陷,采用主成分分析法对样本数据进行降维处理,并利用遗传算法对 BP 神经网络的初始权值阈值进行优化,提出了基于PCA-GA-BP 的工程项目工期风险预测模型。将以往工程风险数据作为学习样本,训练并构建模型对待建工程项目工期风险进行预测。实例证明该模型有效、可靠,对指导实际工程具有重要意义。     

基于广义线性模型的住宅工程质量保险费率厘定

为了合理、科学地计算住宅工程质量保险费率,采用广义线性模型对该险种分类费率进行厘定。介绍了建筑工程质量保险在国外的应用以及在国内的发展状况,分析了住宅工程质量影响因素,并给出开发商、勘察设计单位、承包商以及监理单位四个费率因子。在比较分类费率厘定的传统方法和广义线性模型的基础上,选择了广义线性模型。并给出了广义线性模型计算住宅工程质量保险费率的步骤。     

Estimation of project total cost and duration for housing projects in the U.K.

There are a number of variables which act individually and in combination to influence project total cost and duration. The extent of the effect of these variables is dependent on the nature of the project. A project is defined in terms of its constituent variables. This paper is concerned with a variety of project definitions within the category of housing projects in the U.K. The most influential variables are examined and, in quantified terms, the extent of the relationship between these variables and project total cost and duration is determined. To this end, two separate models are developed and proposed for the estimation of project cost and duration. While the model for the latter encompasses the former as a variable, the model for the estimation of project cost is independent from project duration.     

项目实施模式创新效应研究

基于管理经济学,建立项目实施模式效应的柯布-道格拉斯模型,通过对模型的平衡分析,证明项目实施模式效应存在成本极值点,指出项目实施模式存在两种效应,即形成成本优势的管理技术效应和形成效用优势的管理空间效应,并对它们进行深入分析。在此基础上,探讨了项目实施模式创新的类型、特征和选择原则。     

Modeling building projects as a basis for change control

Changes made in building projects during their design and execution are a major cause for delays, cost overruns and deviations from performance requirements. The impact of changes on the project often becomes clear only after their implementation in the project. At that stage it is difficult to make adjustments or consider alternatives. A timely recognition, by the project team, of the implications of proposed changes can lead to a reconsideration of the changes, so that the completed project would still meet the client's objectives.This paper presents an ongoing research project for the development of a model of building projects, as a basis for change control. The model facilitates an automatic identification of the possible consequences of changes when they are first proposed, prior to their implementation in the design and planning of the project. The model utilizes available sources of project information in order to identify the impact of changes on the primary client objectives of cost, schedule and performance.The proposed model's feasibility was examined through its application in a case-study. The model was used to identify, in retrospect, the possible impact of proposed changes in a case study of a building project. The consequences of different change scenarios were quickly identified by tracing the relationships between the elements of the project. In reality, these consequences became clear only after the changes were fully implemented.     

Project management and computer-aided engineering

The project management model required for application of a computer system in engineering and project management is reviewed briefly, and the restrictions placed on the model by the needs of the project and engineering management are evaluated. The method for combining these two elements into a single structure is identified. Techniques and technologies available from computer aided engineering provide the link and are believed to be capable of improving productivity as they will allow the true integration of technical management with cost and schedule management - something that is missing in many project control systems.     

Total project cost: a simplified model for decision makers

A simplified model for total project cost is developed in this paper to meet the numerous requests from decision makers for a model that can be used to estimate the total project cost from the estimated cash flows and, more importantly, to check the accuracy of the project cost estimates in feasibility studies that require prudent decisions. It begins with a base cost estimate in constant dollars and discrete cash flows with discrete inflation rates as practised by the construction industry. The discrete inflation rates are used to estimate the current dollar costs of the project. The effects of inflation are estimated as escalation during construction. Using the future value concept, interest during construction is estimated, in a simplified approach, to estimate the total project cost. Data from an actual feasibility study is used to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the simplified model. The model is extended to treat discrete cash flows with continuous inflation rates.     

基于造价控制的最优承发包模式选择

目前,国内外工程项目的承发包模式众多,在对国内外各种承发包模式综合研究的基础上,将其分成了包括传统的 DBB 模式、工程总承包模式和项目管理承发包模式三大类别,分析了各种承发包模式的特点和适用范围,为了更好地实现项目的既定目标,针对不同的项目承发包模式,提出了不同的造价控制方法。并具体分析了工程项目各种承发包模式的特点及与项目造价控制的关系,试图在项目质量、工期和造价目标相互平衡的条件下,寻求最有利于投资者进行造价控制的最优承发包模式。     

Modeling strategic alignment in project networks

This paper explores the challenges that occur when collaborating organizations seek to align multiple strategic objectives through a single construction project and examines those factors that influence the strategy of a project network. Unlike intra-organizational projects that operate in the boundaries of a single organization, a project network operates in an environment of overlapping boundaries whereby multiple organizations simultaneously seek to ensure their strategic objectives are realized through a single strategic project. A model presenting a hierarchy of inter-organizational strategic objectives is developed from the empirical findings of a study of four construction projects. Internal and external tensions influencing the project strategy of the network are identified. The study finds that effective project governance, leadership and taking account of client complexity are important in the strategic alignment of inter-organizational projects, and this informs the development of the new model.     

How do project management competencies change within the project management career model in large Chinese construction companies?

Due to the increasing complexity and flexibility of business activities, project-based organizations have become common. In such organizations, project management competencies, which refer to a collection of knowledge, personal attitudes, skills, and relevant experience, are core assets that must be taken seriously. Formalized project management career paths have been widely implemented in the construction industry. However, most recent studies treat project management competencies as static constructs and fail to consider their dynamic changes as a career path advances. To fill this gap in the literature, this study conducted an empirical examination of project management competencies integrated with a career model for the construction industry. First, key project management competencies are identified through a literature review. Then, a project management career model for large Chinese construction companies is developed based on an empirical investigation of six large Chinese construction companies from various sectors. Moreover, a quantitative analysis is performed to explore how these competencies dynamically change as position levels rise in the career model. The research findings indicate that significant differences in project management competencies exist at different levels of the career model. However, the distribution remains steady at different project management position levels for conceptual and organizational competencies, human competencies, and technical competencies.     

高层住宅太阳能一体化项目风险评价研究

随着城市化进程的加剧,各大城市出现了一大批高层住宅与太阳能热水系统同步设计同步施工的项目,这些项目由于更加的复杂,其风险较传统工程项目的风险有了很大的不同,给项目管理人员的风险管理带来了挑战。为了应对这一挑战,构建了高层住宅太阳能一体化项目风险评价指标体系,并结合了模糊综合评价和层次分析法的优点建立了基于模糊综合评价的风险评价模型,并最终得出了工程项目风险因素发生的概率以及风险因素对于项目目标的影响程度。最后将风险评价模型应用于西安某太阳能示范小区工程中,得出了该项目的风险程度,验证了此模型是可信的,适用的。     

Automated trade‐off between time and cost in planning repetitive construction projects

An automated model is developed to support the optimization of the planning and scheduling of repetitive construction projects. The model provides the capability of optimizing two important objectives commonly sought in scheduling repetitive construction projects: minimizing project duration; and minimizing project cost. The model performs this multi‐objective optimization using a genetic algorithm approach. The output of the model is a set of optimal solutions that represent the trade‐off between time and cost in planning repetitive construction projects. Furthermore, the model can be utilized to find a single scheduling solution that provides the minimum overall project cost by simply adding project indirect cost to the obtained project direct cost for each of the obtained scheduling solutions on the Pareto optimal curve. Other important time‐related costs are also considered in the model including: early completion incentives, late completion penalties and lane rental costs. Providing the planners of repetitive construction projects with an automated set of optimal time–cost trade‐off solutions should contribute to cost‐effective and speedy delivery of this type of construction project. An application example is analysed to illustrate the use of the model and demonstrate its capabilities in generating optimal trade‐off solutions between minimizing the project time and cost for repetitive construction projects.     

基于物元分析法的施工项目管理绩效评价模型

随着以项目管理为核心的生产运营体系的广泛应用,施工项目管理绩效评价作为项目管理的关键内容,受到了越来越多施工企业的关注。为了更有效地对施工项目管理进行绩效评价,提高施工企业的项目管理水平,通过文献浏览构建了一套施工项目管理绩效评价指标体系,采用网络层析分析法确定绩效指标权重。将物元分析法应用于建筑企业施工项目管理绩效评价中,利用关联度函数进行评判,以定量的等级表示项目绩效的高低程度,并结合某住宅建设项目对该模型进行实证分析,验证了模型的可行性和实用性,从而为施工企业项目管理绩效评价提供参考。     

Applying cluster identification algorithm and simulation to generate probabilistic network schedules for design projects

Scheduling of a design project is complex because design activities often have information dependencies between each other. This study proposes a network‐based model to schedule design projects and generate probabilistic project durations. The proposed model applies a modified cluster identification algorithm to evaluate information dependencies between design activities to facilitate the establishment of a schedule network (and regroup activities to support the assignment of design work); it also uses a simulation approach to incorporate the effect on duration of the uncertain number of design iterations. The model is implemented in four stages, which are breaking down the design work; evaluating the dependencies; identifying concurrent activities; and estimating the durations of activities and simulating the duration of design project. The advantages of the proposed model are demonstrated through its application to an example project, which was reviewed by industrial practitioners. Practitioners felt that the generated detailed scheduling data could help them to control their design work more precisely than a bar chart. Additionally, the simulated probabilistic project duration provided them with an awareness of the risk involved in meeting the contractual deadline.     

A contractor pre-qualification model based on the quality function deployment method

Contractors play a significant role in construction projects and selection of the most appropriate contractor for the project is a critical decision for clients. The pre-qualification of construction contractors is accounted as a very important step in contractor selection for every project. The main purpose of pre-qualification is to identify an array of eligible contractors, which is required for post-qualification steps and further considerations. Although there have been numerous models for contractor pre-qualification, there are inadequate researches to present a contractor pre-qualification model with consideration of the project objectives or the project owner’s requirements. A new contractor pre-qualification model was developed with the aim of resolving this issue. This model employs the quality function deployment (QFD) method, and considers both the project owner’s requirements and the contractor’s abilities. The results reveal that consideration of the project objectives or the project owner’s requirements and expectations can influence contractor pre-qualification.     

基于组合赋权-改进可拓云模型的城市水生态PPP 项目绩效综合评价

随着 PPP 模式在城市水生态治理领域的广泛运用,准确地评估城市水生态 PPP 项目实施绩效的需求日益凸显。通过对传统可拓云模型的改进,提出了一种组合赋权-改进可拓云绩效综合评价模型,以结果导向为切入点构建了绩效指标体系,从产出、效果、管理层面对城市水生态 PPP 项目建设运营阶段的绩效进行综合评价,并应用该模型对某污水处理 PPP项目进行绩效评价,结果表明:该项目建设阶段和运营阶段的绩效等级分别为 1.3680 和 1.6254,模型评价结果与项目实际相符,结果精度相比其他物元可拓模型的评估结果更高,验证了该模型的准确性。还结合该项目实际,提出了城市水生态PPP 项目绩效管理的发展意见。