Geothermal development in Hungary—country update report 2000–2002

This paper describes the status of geothermal energy utilization—direct use—in Hungary, with emphasis on developments between 2000 and 2002. The level of utilization of geothermal energy in the world increased in this period and geothermal energy was the leading producer, with 70% of the total electricity production, of all the renewable energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal and tidal), followed by wind energy at 28%. The current cost of direct heat use from biomass is 1–5 US¢/kWh, geothermal 0.5–5 US¢/kWh and solar heating 3–20 US¢/kWh. The data relative to direct use in Hungary decreased in this period and the contribution of geothermal energy to the energy balance of Hungary, despite significant proven reserves (with reinjection) of 380 million m³/year, with a heat content of 63.5 PJ/a at ΔT=40 °C, remained very low (0.25%). Despite the fact that geothermal fluids with temperatures at the surface higher than 100 °C are available, no electricity has been generated. As of 31 December 2002, the geothermal capacity utilised in direct applications in Hungary is estimated to be 324.5 MW_t and to produce 2804 TJ/year. Geothermal heat pumps represent about 4.0 MW_t of this installed capacity. The quantity of thermal water produced for direct uses in 2002 was approximately 22 million m³, with an average utilization temperature of 31 °C. The main consumer of geothermal energy is agriculture (68% of the total geothermal heat dedicated to direct uses). The geothermal water is used only in five spas for space heating and sanitary hot water (SHW), although there are 260 spas in the country, and the thermal water produced has an average surface temperature of 68 °C. The total heat capacity installed in the spas is approximately 1250 MW_t; this is not provided by geothermal but could be, i.e., geothermal could provide more than three times the geothermal capacity utilized in direct uses by 31 December 2002 (324.5 MW_t).     

Lobbying friends and foes in climate policy: The case of business and environmental interest groups in the European Union

Drawing on two conflicting hypotheses from the theoretical literature on lobbying, I consider the strategies applied by interest groups lobbying to influence climate policy in the European Union (EU). The first hypothesis claims that interest groups lobby their ‘friends’, decision-makers with positions similar to their own. The second claims that interest groups lobby their ‘foes’, decision-makers with positions opposed to their own. Using interviews with lobbyists and decision-makers, I demonstrate that in the field of climate policy, interest groups in the EU lobby both friends and foes, but under different conditions. Moreover, I find that the interest groups’ motives are not always in line with the theoretical hypotheses. Interest groups lobby their friends on single policy decisions to exchange information, to further a common cause and to exert pressure, and their foes because a foe on one issue might prove to be a friend on another issue. Interest groups direct general lobbying towards both friends and foes. This paper provides a new empirical contribution to a literature that has so far been heavily dominated by studies focusing on lobbying in the US.     

Carbon prices and CCS investment: A comparative study between the European Union and China

Carbon Capture and Storage is considered as a key option for climate change mitigation; policy makers and investors need to know when CCS becomes economically attractive. Integrating CCS in a power plant adds significant costs which can be offset by a sufficient CO₂ price. However, most markets have failed: currently, the weak carbon price threatens CCS deployment in the European Union (EU). In China, a carbon regulation is appearing and CCS encounters a rising interest. This study investigates two questions: how much is the extra-cost of a CCS plant in the EU in comparison with China? Second, what is the CO₂ price beyond which CCS plants become more profitable than reference plants in the EU and in China? To address these issues, I conducted a literature review on public studies about CCS costs. To objectively assess the profitability of CCS plants, I constructed a net present value model to calculate the Levelised Cost of Electricity and the breakeven CO₂ price. CCS plants become the most profitable plant type beyond 115 €/tCO₂ in the EU vs. 45 €/tCO₂ in China (offshore transport and storage costs). I advise on the optimal plant type choice depending on the CO₂ price in both countries.     

Energy efficiency developments in the Dutch energy-intensive manufacturing industry, 1980–2003

We studied energy efficiency trends in the Dutch manufacturing industry between 1995 and 2003 using indicators based on publicly available physical production and specific energy consumption data. We estimated annual primary energy efficiency improvements in this period at 1.3% on average, with the individual sub-sectors ranging between −0.1% and 1.5%. Energy efficiency developments with respect to electricity, fuels/heat and non-energy use have been monitored separately and are shown to differ significantly (for the sum of the sectors studied: 1.9% for electricity, 2.6% for fuels/heat and −0.1% for non-energy use). We combined our results with those from a previous, similar study for 1980–1995 and show that over the full time period, efficiency improvements of 1% per year have been achieved on average. Based on comparison with other sources and a detailed uncertainty analysis, we conclude that we developed a reliable top-down monitoring framework for studying energy efficiency trends of the manufacturing industry that can also be applied in other countries where similar data are available. We also showed that substantial differences exist between energy consumption data available from energy statistics and according to the Long Term Agreement monitoring reports, stressing the need for ongoing independent checks of available energy consumption data to avoid problems in future evaluations of energy efficiency policies.     

EU Research and Innovation (R&I) in renewable energies: The role of the Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan)

The SET-Plan established a strategy to use Research and Innovation (R&I) to green the EU energy sector while ensuring a secure supply and increasing EU competitiveness. The strategy sets clear objectives and programming plans and takes stock of existing initiatives in the energy sector, fosters a cooperative approach to R&I, introduces a high-level steering group (the SET-Plan Steering Group) to monitor progress, creates a dedicated information system (the SETIS) to fill the void in policy information and produces estimates of financial needs over the programming period. In this respect, the SET-Plan could serve as a blueprint for R&I strategies to tackle other societal challenges. To be effective, such strategies should further clarify the hierarchy of existing objectives and instruments, introduce specific instruments to pull the demand of new technologies, strengthen links with education and training policies and formalize links with the governance structures of existing initiatives.     

An evaluation of errors in US energy forecasts: 1982–2003

Planners, policy-makers, and the private sector rely on energy forecasts to help make policy and investment decisions. In the US, the federal Department of Energy (through the Energy Information Administration and its predecessors) has conducted national forecasts of energy production and consumption for decades. This paper explores US energy forecasts in order to uncover potential systemic errors in US forecasting models. We apply an error decomposition technique to forecasts within each major energy sector (commercial, industrial, residential, and transportation) made during the period 1982 to 2003. We find that low errors for total energy consumption are concealing much larger sectoral errors that cancel each other out when aggregated. For example, 5-year forecasts made between 1982 and 1998 demonstrate a mean percentage error for total energy consumption of 0.1%. Yet, this hides the fact that the industrial sector was overestimated by an average of 5.9%, and the transportation sector was underestimated by an average of 4.5%. We also find no evidence that forecasts within each sector have improved over the two decades studied here.     

European perspective on absorption cooling in a combined heat and power system – A case study of energy utility and industries in Sweden

Mankind is facing an escalating threat of global warming and there is increasing evidence that this is due to human activity and increased emissions of carbon dioxide. Converting from vapour compression chillers to absorption chillers in a combined heat and power (CHP) system is a measure towards sustainability as electricity consumption is replaced with electricity generation. This electricity produced in Swedish CHP-system will substitute marginally produced electricity and as result lower global emissions of carbon dioxide. The use of absorption chillers is limited in Sweden but the conditions are in fact most favourable. Rising demand of cooling and increasing electricity prices in combination with a surplus of heat during the summer in CHP system makes heat driven cooling extremely interesting in Sweden. In this paper we analyse the most cost-effective technology for cooling by comparing vapour compression chillers with heat driven absorption cooling for a local energy utility with a district cooling network and for industries in a Swedish municipality with CHP. Whilst this case is necessarily local in scope, the results have global relevance showing that when considering higher European electricity prices, and when natural gas is introduced, absorption cooling is the most cost-effective solution for both industries and for the energy supplier. This will result in a resource effective energy system with a possibility to reduce global emissions of CO₂ with 80%, a 300% lower system cost, and a 170% reduction of the cost of producing cooling due to revenues from electricity production. The results also show that, with these prerequisites, a decrease in COP of the absorption chillers will not have a negative impact on the cost-effectiveness of the system, due to increased electricity production.     

Thermal utilisation of solar energy : Croatian National Energy Program SUNEN, 1998 – 2010

In the paper, thermal use of solar energy as well as prospects and problems of its utilisation in Croatia have been given. The National Solar Energy Program, SUNEN, has been established to stimulate the usage of solar energy. The main goals of the program are the assessment of technical and economically viable solar potential in order to define real objectives and tasks to provide use of exploitable indigenous clean and renewable energy potential. The Program addresses benefits, the most promising solar applications and solar potential. Much attention has been given to identification of obstacles and barriers in the process of solar technology dissemination. SUNEN is an initiative to increase solar energy use and to become more compatible with the present renewable energy sources policy in EU and Mediterranean countries. The program proposes twelve different types of thermal solar energy systems, which could be multiplied up to 28 000 installations until the year 2010 with annual heat recovery of approximately 1,5 TWh (5,4 PJ).     

Comments on: “Gallium-doped ZnO thin films deposited by chemical spray”: [Sol. Energy Mater. Sol. Cells 87 (2005) 107–116]

In this communication, I will discuss some aspects concerning a paper recently published by H. Gomez et al. on the properties of gallium-doped ZnO thin films deposited by chemical spray methods [H. Gomez, A. Maldonado, M. de la L. Olvera, D.R. Acosta, Sol. Energy Mater. Sol. Cells 87 (2005) 107.]. I believe that there are some wrong considerations of basic principles, some incorrect experimental procedures and inconsistencies on the analysis and throughout the paper. The “Introduction” reflects some knowledge on the subject, but it seems that the authors of the aforementioned paper use outdated background sources in some cases, and inconsistently apply prior research in others.The “Experimental procedure” shows some serious lack of knowledge concerning thin films that are potentially applicable as transparent electrodes in photovoltaic devices. In the “Results and discussion”, I found some of the arguments and statements contradictory, mainly when the effects of their vacuum annealing were being discussed. Considerations on the “Structural properties” are necessary, as they are not appropriate for comparative purposes. Finally, a last point, but not less important than the others, is the “Conclusions” of the paper. Some suggestions are made below for the improvement of this, and several others, aspects of the paper.     

Erratum to “Assessing the suitability of Input-Output analysis for enhancing our understanding of potential effects of Peak-Oil” [Energy (2008) 34: 284–290]

Given recent developments on energy markets and skyrocketing oil prices, we argue for an urgent need to study the potential effects of world oil production reaching a maximum (Peak Oil) in order to facilitate the development of adaptation policies. We consider input–output (IO) modelling as a powerful tool for this purpose. However, the standard Leontief type model implicitly assumes that all necessary inputs to satisfy a given demand can and will be supplied. This is problematic if the availability of certain key inputs becomes restricted and it is therefore only of limited usefulness for the study of the phenomenon of Peak Oil. Hence this paper firstly reviews two alternative modelling tools within the IO framework: supply-driven and mixed models. The former has been severely criticised for its problematic assumption of perfect factor substitution and perfect elasticity of demand as revealed by Oosterhaven [Oosterhaven J. On the plausibility of the supply-driven IO model. J Reg Sci 1988; 28:203–17. [1]]. The supply-constrained model on the other hand proved well suited to analyse the quantity dimension of Peak Oil and is therefore applied empirically in the second part of the paper, using data for the UK, Japanese and Chilean economy. Results show how differences in net-oil exporting and net-oil importing countries are clearly visible in terms of final demand. Industries, most affected in all countries, include transportation, electricity production and financial and trade services.     

Rebuttal of “Comments on: Gallium-doped ZnO thin films deposited by chemical spray: [Sol. Energy Mater. Sol. Cells 87 (2005) 107–116]

This letter is the rebuttal of the comments made to our paper entitled “Gallium-doped ZnO thin films deposited by chemical spray”, recently published in this prestigious, in our research field, review. Each one of the points questioned is clarified in order to give the respective reasons, as well as additional information that support the content of our paper. We will refer to the same titles and order of the different sections contained in the comments.     

Power to the people or regulatory ratcheting? Explaining the success (or failure) of attempts to site commercial US nuclear power plants: 1954–1996

Between 1954 and 1996, more than 200 nuclear power projects were publicly announced in the USA. Barely half of these projects were completed and generated power commercially. Existing research has highlighted a number of potential explanations for the varying siting outcomes of these projects, including contentious political protests, socioeconomic and political conditions within potential host communities, regulatory changes (‘ratcheting’), and cost overruns. However, questions remain about which of these factors, if any, had an impact on these outcomes. This article uses a new data set of 228 host communities where siting was attempted to illuminate the factors that led projects towards either completion or cancelation. Controlling for factors highlighted by past studies, we find that regulatory, site‐ and reactor‐specific factors predict the outcomes of attempts to site nuclear reactors over this time period. These findings have important implications in the post‐Fukushima ‘nuclear renaissance’ era when many still hope to revitalize the nuclear industry in the USA. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.