避免电力与天然气进入过剩时代的对策

我国的能源发展战略要优化能源结构,发展清洁低碳能源是调整能源结构的主攻方向。要用尽量多的电力、天然气去替代污染严重的煤炭与石油。由于我国现行的能源价格机制和能源政策忽视了能源产品的相对价格,造成了当前我国电力和天然气供应过剩。电力、天然气供应过剩将阻碍绿色低碳战略的实施。电力过剩相应地会阻碍风能、太阳能、水能与核能发电的开发利用。天然气过剩就会影响天然气代煤、代油的进程,如果因价格问题,"煤改气"出现逆替代,那问题就更严重了。如果能源产品相对价格不合理,电力和天然气的价格都大大高于煤炭,那么用电力和天然气去替代煤炭是很困难的。所以中国要特别重视能源产品的相对价格。要实现能源产品相对价格合理化,就要研究全球的天然气价格机制和天然气定价模式,选择适合我国国情的定价模式。同时加快国内天然气的开采,增加国产燃气的比重,并且建立亚洲能源共同体,强化与能源出口国的议价能力。必须使电力和天然气的价格低于被替代的煤炭和石油,尤其要低于煤炭的价格。这样才能避免我国出现电力与天然气过剩,防止电力和天然气替代煤炭和石油过程的停滞,尤其要防止其逆替代。     

发达资本主义国家化学工业的主要节能途径

1973—1983年间,世界资本主义市场的能源价格发生过多次波动。石油价格的波动最大:如1973至1974年石油涨价4次,1979至1980年,石油价格涨了一倍,而1982至1983年石油价格却大幅度下降。其它载能体(汽油、石脑油、液化石油汽、天然气和煤)的价格也有波动。轻石油产品、重油的价格上涨速度处领先地位,而天然气和煤的价格上涨程度较低。     

天然气价格是天然气工业发展的关键

本文分析了我国终端能源的清洁化要靠天然气和电力来共同完成；我国当前天然气工业的发展，有赖于天然气价格的合理化；我国天然气价格与国外比较，与煤炭和电力价格的比较说明，我国天然气价格偏高，电力价格偏低，是阻碍天然气发展的关键，文章希望通过市场定价，使天然气、电力价格合理化。     

政府工作报告引热议 能源体制改革深水区前行

<正>经过长期发展,目前我国已成为世界上最大的能源生产国和消费国,形成了煤炭、电力、石油、天然气、新能源、可再生能源全面发展的能源供给体系,技术装备水平明显提高,生产生活用能条件显著改善。我国能源体制仍存在与生产力不相适应的问题。主要表现在,价格形成机制不合理。煤炭和原油价格已经由市场形成,而电力、天然气和成品油价格仍由政府制定,价格杠杆还不能很好地引导资源配置,调节供需、鼓励竞争、节能减排、     

燃煤火电与风电完全成本比较分析

正随着世界化石能源的日益匮乏和人类对能源需求的不断增加,加上传统化石能源电力生产过程中的环境污染,人类不得不努力寻找可以补充或替代煤炭、石油、天然气这类常规能源的可再生、环保、洁净的绿色能源。风能作为一种取之不尽、用之不竭的绿色可再生能源,与传统化石能源相比,不会产生任何有害气体、废水和固体颗粒物,环境效益相当显著。当人们用已经发展一百多年的火电厂技术与新发展起来的风电技术相比较时,总是看到其发电间歇、波动的不足,看到政府的价格     

国际市场煤炭与石油价格相关性研究

煤炭消费增长与我国国民经济增长速度关系密切,2011年以来中国连续成为全球最大煤炭进口国,2013年煤炭进口量达到3.3×108t。国内煤炭价格日益受到国际市场煤炭价格的影响,两者之间的联系愈发紧密。而国际市场上煤炭价格与石油价格的波动具有较强的一致性。通过对煤炭价格和石油价格的相互影响机制进行定性分析、相关性分析以及回归分析,证实煤炭价格与石油价格之间存在显著的正相关关系,石油价格上涨或下跌1%则煤炭价格上涨或下跌0.3654%,石油价格的变化可以解释煤炭价格约18%的变动。煤炭与石油互为能源替代品,石油价格通过替代效应和影响宏观经济来直接、间接地影响煤炭价格。过高的石油价格会使消费者选用相对便宜的煤炭,改变市场供求从而拉高煤炭价格,使两者价格趋向于一致。鉴于外界预测2014年全球石油价格将维持在目前的较高水平,考虑到煤炭与石油价格的正相关性,据此判断国际市场煤炭价格也将保持在现有水平,并随石油价格小幅波动。由于国内外煤炭品质及价格存在差异,因此国内煤炭价格将继续承受下行压力,并逐步向国际市场煤价靠拢。     

深化中国能源管理体制改革——问题、目标、思路与改革重点

当前中国能源管理体制存在的问题主要是能源法律体系建设滞后,市场机制建设进展缓慢,市场监督机制不健全。新一轮能源管理体制改革的目标应是"四个形成":即形成比较完整的能源法体系,形成良性的市场竞争秩序,形成综合与分类相结合的能源监管体制,形成以市场为基础的能源定价新机制。能源管理体制改革的思路是以法治建设作为能源管理体制改革的基础,以系统思维和顶层设计的思路确定改革方式,将价格机制改革作为能源管理体制改革的突破口。改革的重点是理顺煤电价格,推进电价改革;改善原油成品油定价机制,尽早推出天然气价格机制,完善市场准入制度,打破企业市场垄断,尽快完善电力监管体系,健全煤炭、石油天然气行业的监管体制,及早应对国际能源格局新变化,积极参与全球能源治理。     

中国能源市场形势分析及预测

2004年能源生产快速增长,需求十分旺盛,主要能源产品进口大幅增加,出口明显减少,能源价格大幅攀升。2005年能源需求增速将有所回落,能源供求形势将比2004年有较大缓减。预计全年发电量同比增长12％左右,煤炭产量同比增长8.5％左右,成品油表观消费量同比增长10％左右。煤炭和电力价格仍呈上升趋势,国际油价波动幅度将有所放缓。建议推进能源价格形成机制改革,建立和逐步完善能源产品储备制度,重视高耗能产品的国际贸易。     

北京

适度调整电气热价进入北京市能源工作要点近日,北京市发展改革委发布《2011北京能源工作要点》。北京今年将根据国家统一部署,稳步推进电力、燃气、供热、新能源等重点领域价格改革。充分发挥市场对能源价格的调节作用,适时、适度调整能源价格及能源各品种之间的比价关系,促进资源节约和节能减排。据听证结果,居民天然气价格每立方米上调0.23元,即从现行的每立方米2.05元调整至每立方米2.28元,调幅11%。     

油价下跌不会危及可再生能源发展的七大理由

自2014年7月以来,国际原油价格大幅走低,下跌幅度已超过50%。如此巨大的价格跌幅如果放在5年前,足以导致可再生能源产业濒临破产。但今天,这种情况已有所改变。本文列出了七大理由,解释了为什么油价下跌不会导致向清洁能源转型目标的偏离。1太阳能与石油不存在竞争石油是用作汽车燃料,而可再生能源则是用作发电,二者实际上并不存在竞争关系。如果将石油用作发电,即使其价格跌破50美元/桶,其发电成本仍然过高。真正与太阳能存在竞争关系的是煤炭、天然气、水能和核能。而太阳能又属于新能源,仅占当今电力市场不到1%的市场份额,但根据国际能源署的预测,到2050年太阳能将成为全球最大的单一电力     

Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets

Dynamic price information flows among U.S. electricity wholesale spot prices and the prices of the major electricity generation fuel sources, natural gas, uranium, coal, and crude oil, are studied. Multivariate time series methods applied to weekly price data show that in contemporaneous time peak electricity prices move natural gas prices, which in turn influence crude oil. In the long run, price is discovered in the fuel sources market (except uranium), as these prices are weakly exogenous in a reduced rank regression representation of these energy prices.     

Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis

To establish a reasonable system and mechanism for Chinese energy prices, we use the Granger causality test, Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter and time difference analysis to research the pricing relationship between Chinese and international energy prices. We find that Chinese and international crude oil prices changed synchronously while Chinese refined oil prices follow the changes of international oil prices with the time difference being about 1 month to 2 months. Further, Australian coal prices Granger causes Chinese coal prices, and there is a high correlation between them. The U.S. electricity price is influenced by the WTI crude oil price, the U.S. gasoline price and the HenryHub gas price. Due to the unreasonable price-setting mechanism and regulation from the central government, China′s terminal market prices for both electricity and natural gas do not reflect the real supply–demand situation. This paper provides quantitative results on the correlation between Chinese and international energy prices to better predict the impact of international energy price fluctuations on China′s domestic energy supply and guide the design of more efficient energy pricing policies. Moreover, it provides references for developing countries to improve their energy market systems and trading, and to coordinate domestic and international energy markets.     

What explain the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?

Using a Bayesian Structural VAR (BSVAR), this paper analyzes the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO₂ emissions in response to changes in the prices of oil, coal, natural gas and electricity. The results show that: (i) a positive shock to the crude oil prices has an initial positive effect on the CO₂ allowance prices, which later becomes negative; (ii) an unexpected increase in the natural gas prices reduces the price of CO₂ emissions; (iii) a positive shock to the prices of the fuel of choice, coal, has virtually no significant impact on the CO₂ prices; (iv) there is a clear positive effect of the coal prices on the CO₂ allowance prices when the electricity prices are excluded from the BSVAR system; and (v) a positive shock to the electricity prices has a negative impact on the price of the CO₂ allowances. We also find that the energy price shocks have a persistent impact on the CO₂ allowance prices, with the largest effect occurring 6 months after a shock strikes. The effect is particularly strong in the case of the shocks to the natural gas and crude oil prices. Finally, the empirical findings suggest an important degree of substitution between the three primary sources of energy (i.e., crude oil, natural gas and coal), particularly when electricity prices are excluded from the BSVAR system.     

A conditional dependence approach to CO2-energy price relationships

This paper uses the conditional vine copula approach to model the dependence structure between European-based carbon allowances and major energy prices. It makes two central contributions to the related literature. First, we extend the previous works of Reboredo (2013, 2014) by allowing for complete coverage of energy markets including natural gas, coal, and electricity, beyond the carbon-oil dependencies. Second, we simultaneously investigate the multivariate dependence among all variables in the system so that each of them can interact with the others based on a rich variety of bivariate copula functions. The consideration of the electricity market in this context offers the possibility to gauge its influences through the computation of the fuel-switching mechanism. We mainly find that there is a reliable and positive link between coal and gas prices, and between coal and oil prices, with or without the presence of electricity prices, while a weak and positive link is detected between Brent and gas prices. Carbon prices co-move only weakly with energy prices, and their link to oil and gas prices is negative. Moreover, the switch from coal to gas does not occur when the relative price of fuels taking into account carbon costs is assessed. This happens because the fuel-switching mechanism is still more costly than carbon abatement. Our findings remain intact when alternative electricity prices are used.     

Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation

The hikes in hydrocarbon prices during the last years have lead to concern about investment choices in the energy system and uncertainty about the costs for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. On the one hand, high prices of oil and natural gas increase the use of coal; on the other hand, the cost difference between fossil-based energy and non-carbon energy options decreases. We use the global energy model TIMER to explore the energy system impacts of exogenously forced low, medium and high hydrocarbon price scenarios, with and without climate policy. We find that without climate policy high hydrocarbon prices drive electricity production from natural gas to coal. In the transport sector, high hydrocarbon prices lead to the introduction of alternative fuels, especially biofuels and coal-based hydrogen. This leads to increased emissions of CO₂. With climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in electricity production from a dominant position of natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to coal-with-CCS, nuclear and wind. In the transport sector, the introduction of hydrogen opens up the possibility of CCS, leading to a higher mitigation potential at the same costs. In a more dynamic simulation of carbon price and oil price interaction the effects might be dampened somewhat.     

Hard coal for energetic purposes: price–quality relationships; international coal market observations and Polish practice

Coal is the most abundant and commonly used energy carrier in the world. In coal-producing countries, coal is often the cheapest fuel for electricity and heat production. Prices of steam coals offered by exporters on international markets reflect current economic and market conditions and are also related to the prices of other fossil fuels like crude oil and natural gas. International coal-market observations and analyses lead to the conclusion that steam-coal prices depend only on heating value. In Polish practice, steam-coal prices are calculated using a price formula in which coal price is a function of three quality parameters: net calorific value, ash content and sulphur content, and a price of ‘basic’ or ‘reference’ coal (which means: coal of defined quality). This paper presents the results of international coal-market analyses of relationships between coal price and quality and describes the Polish coal-pricing system. A new solution, relevant to domestic coal mines and power plants, is presented to improve and simplify the conditions of bilateral settlements of coal deliveries.     

Factors affecting the carbon allowance market in the US

The US carbon allowance market has different characteristic and price determination process from the EU ETS market, since emitting installations voluntarily participate in emission trading scheme. This paper examines factors affecting the US carbon allowance market. An autoregressive distributed lag model is used to examine the short- and long-run relationships between the US carbon allowance market and its determinant factors. In the long-run, the price of coal is a main factor in the determination of carbon allowance trading. In the short-run, on the other hand, the changes in crude oil and natural gas prices as well as coal price have significant effects on carbon allowance market.     

Causal modeling and inference for electricity markets

How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions. Applying our methods to weekly Nordic and German electricity prices, and oil, gas and coal prices, with German wind power and Nordic water reservoir levels as exogenous variables, we estimate a causal model for the price dynamics, both for contemporaneous and lagged relationships. In contemporaneous time, Nordic and German electricity prices are interlinked through gas prices. In the long run, electricity prices and British gas prices adjust themselves to establish the equilibrium price level, since oil, coal, continental gas and EUR/USD are found to be weakly exogenous.     

Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach

We use a quantile regression framework to investigate the impact of changes in crude oil prices, natural gas prices, coal prices, and electricity prices on the distribution of the CO₂ emission allowance prices in the United States. We find that: (i) an increase in the crude oil price generates a substantial drop in the carbon prices when the latter is very high; (ii) changes in the natural gas prices have a negative effect on the carbon prices when they are very low but have a positive effect when they are quite high; (iii) the impact of the changes in the electricity prices on the carbon prices can be positive in the right tail of the distribution; and (iv) the coal prices exert a negative effect on the carbon prices.