Clean development mechanism practice in China: Current status and possibilities for future regime

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is expected to help Annex I countries achieve their binding commitment through a cost-effective way and to promote sustainable development in non Annex I countries including China, which has been the largest host country in the CDM market. This paper aims at reviewing the CDM practice followed in China from institutional arrangement to the risk and barriers faced by the project owners. The analysis shows that a clear institutional setting and implementation strategy is crucial for the effective implementation of CDM projects. The geographic uneven distribution of the CDM project partly due to the uneven capacity building practice can be removed by knowledge transfer and the learning by doing method. The sectoral uneven distribution caused by lack of proper methodology and unsatisfied technology transfer caused by risk consideration are also discussed. The experience and lessons learned from the CDM practice in China will be meaningful and valuable not only for other slow starters like Africa to improve their capacity but also for the international negotiation of future CDM regime aiming at expanding the coverage of CDM and fostering technology transfer.     

山洪灾害风险防控研究与实践

针对山洪灾害防治工作中存在的关键问题及薄弱环节,按照风险识别、评估、预判、防控、降低风险发生概率及减轻风险造成后果的灾害风险管理理论,系统地研究了山洪灾害风险潜势识别、监测与评估、预警及控制等四个主要环节的防控关键技术,并在江西省进行实践,取得了较好成效.     

洪水预报方案的模糊风险分析方法及应用

针对传统的洪水预报方案风险分析方法仅考虑设计变量的随机性而未考虑设计变量及失事准则的模糊性的不足,从考虑洪水预报失事准则的模糊性出发,计算了洪水预报系统的模糊风险。通过引入水平截集三角模糊数将预报失事准则模糊性转化为非模糊性,并结合传统的改进一次二阶矩(AFOSM)风险分析方法,给出了洪水预报各变量及系统的模糊风险区间值。实例应用表明,该方法得到的模糊风险能表示不同程度的风险值,比传统的风险确定值更符合实际,且可为决策者提供更多的决策信息。     

数字地图在洪水风险图中的应用

针对防洪工程在抗御洪灾中具有的局限性和被动性,介绍了一种洪水风险图、数字地图和数字地图在洪水风险图中的应用。实践证明:洪水风险图在防洪减灾中是一种有效的非工程措施,是实施洪水管理的重要手段和基础。     

Hedging local volume risk using forward markets: Nordic case

With focus on the Nordic electricity market, this paper develops hedging strategies for an electricity distributor who manages price and volume risk from fixed price agreements on stochastic electricity load. Whereas the distributor trades in the spot market at area prices, the financial contracts used for hedging are settled against the system price. Area and system prices are correlated with electricity load, as are price differences. In practice, however, this is often disregarded. Here, we develop a joint model for the area price, the system price and the load, accounting for correlations, and we suggest various strategies for hedging in the presence of local volume risk. We benchmark against a strategy that ignores correlation and hedges at expected load, as is common practice in the industry. Using data from 2013 and 2014 for two Danish bidding areas, we show that our best hedging strategy reduces gross loss by 5.8% and 13.6% and increases gross profit by 3.8% and 9.5%, respectively. Although this is partly due to the inclusion of correlation, we show that performance improvement is mainly driven by the choice of risk measure.     

Forward contracts in electricity markets: The Australian experience

Forward contracts play a vital role in all electricity markets, and yet the details of the market for forward contracts are often opaque. In this paper we review the existing literature on forward contracts and explore the contracting process as it operates in Australia. The paper is based on interviews with participants in Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM). The interviews were designed to understand the contracting process and the practice of risk management in the Australian energy-only pool market. This survey reveals some significant gaps between the assumptions made in the academic literature and actual practice in the Australian market place.     

合同能源管理在火电厂冷却塔改造中的实践

本文以某电厂冷却塔节能改造为例,论述了合同能源管理在火电厂节能改造中的实施过程。通过项目可行性研究,预计该项目年节约标煤2 177.3 t以上,项目实施后对其效果进行了节能评估验证,证明年节约标煤2 488.3 t,达到预期的节省煤耗的目标,最后对合同能源管理的潜在风险进行了分析。     

新能源风险投资全周期风险管理体系的构建

[目的]在加快构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统的过程中,充分发挥风险投资的杠杆效应有利于推进新能源发电快速形成规模经济优势,推进新能源战略性新兴产业落地和成果转化.[方法]文章将风险投资及风险管理理论引入到新能源开发建设实践,融合战略管理、风险投资、新能源开发建设的相关理论,构建了新能源风险投资全周期风险管理指标体系....     

Products,practices and processes: exploring the innovation potential for low-carbon housing refurbishment among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the UK construction industry

Scenario-based studies agree that the technical potential for CO₂ emissions reduction from the housing stock is large. This paper explores how a market might be developed for the refurbishment activities assumed in these scenarios, taking the existing market for repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) as its starting point. Interviews with 16 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the construction industry reveal the interdependence of products, practices and processes in housing renovation activities. Conservative practice as well as innovation can be understood as the outcome of multi-lateral influences on firms from other firms, clients, the material buildings and products in their working lives, and from regulations and regulators. Contractors' openness to innovation is contingent on an informal approach to risk assessment, taking account of cost, time efficiency, client demands, and installer confidence in the reliability of the resulting work. The implications of the research are discussed in relation to the need for new practices and processes on refurbishment projects, raising questions for future research on key questions of quality assurance, performance over time, the application of standards, and vocational training.     

我国原油进口来源改进策略分析

考虑到进口来源多元化风险和来源地政治风险两个因素,将原油进口源分为五大地区创建进口来源风险综合指数,利用该指数,在2003～2010年我国实际五大进口来源份额的基础上,通过设置将政治风险较高、采购量较大的中东、非洲地区的采购份额转移到政治风险相对较低、进口份额相对较小的美洲、欧洲/前苏联和亚太地区的12种策略,并对12种策略进行分析对比,指出不同转移策略对改进我国原油进口来源策略的作用。     

教学研究型大学市场营销专业的培养目标与培养思路

高校专业建设已进入了个性化、特色化、国际化的成长时期,而大学专业特色的形成必须首先明确其人才培养目标。论述了教学研究型大学市场营销专业教育的基本任务是为企业和各种非盈利组织提供高级应用型营销管理人才。为此,就需要在培养模式上强调课内实践、课外校内实践和校外实践的有机的能力培养体系。     

关于农作物生物质直燃发电资源调查需注意的若干问题

随着国家促进生物质资源利用政策的不断推出,农作物生物质资源直燃发电项目得到了快速发展,在实际操作中发现相当部分项目实施单位对生物质直燃发电资源调查工作未能给予足够的重视,未做深入细致的调研工作,使项目建成后由于燃料问题导致运营成本增加,投资风险加大。利用编制和审核调查报告经验总结,揭示农作物生物质资源直燃发电资源调研工作中需注意的问题,希望能对生物质资源利用工作有所促进。     

Energy management as the management of innovation

It is often said that investments in energy conservation are in some way low risk. This paper shows that like all investments they must, by definition, have elements of risk. It is part of the Energy Manager's role to manage these investments, which because of their novelty, are innovations. Consequently Energy Managers should consider themselves to be innovators and draw lessons from theories of the management of innovation. This paper indicates what can be learnt from these theories and suggests a basic, systematic model for energy conservation innovation.     

煤基甲醇燃料及其醚类衍生物的产业开发前景分析

对煤基甲醇燃料及其醚类衍生物的产业开发前景进行了初步分析。认为全面开发甲醇汽油虽然具有低成本的比较优势,但大面积推广甲醇汽油的主要问题是将面临很大的风险。相对而言,二甲醚等醚类衍生物是一类更为现实和适合国情的煤基燃料品种。用科学发展观指导我国石油替代燃料产业开发的核心是实践,只有通过实践和示范工程,在取得丰富经验以后．才能指导这个产业的有效发展。     

Risk premia in the German day-ahead electricity market revisited: The impact of negative prices

This paper replicates the study by Viehmann (2011) that investigated risk premia in the German day-ahead electricity market from October 2005 to September 2008. While estimated sizes of risk premia can be replicated, this paper does not reproduce respective standard errors, leading to remarkable differences between the reported significance levels. An extension with data of preceding years points to further differences with respect to size and statistical significance. In addition, this paper analyzes the impact of negative prices on risk premia. Negative electricity prices were introduced in 2008 at the European Power Exchange (EPEX), and in 2013 at the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA). The results of an econometric analysis suggest that the introduction of negative prices has led to a decrease in risk premia when compared to the period of a positive price regime.     

加氢站定量风险分析研究

结合定量风险分析理论和加氢站的特点,从加氢站的事故场景、事故频率、事故后果、死亡概率和个人风险与社会风险5个方面进行了研究,提出了加氢站定量风险分析模型,并结合某加氢站进行了实例计算分析,计算出该加氢站量化的个人风险和社会风险,再与国内外认可的可接受风险标准进行比较,得出其风险水平是否可接受的分析结论。其量化的风险分析结论将对加氢站建设的审批和公众安全认可具有重要指导意义。     

考虑提前蓄水下的高堆石坝施工后期导流方案决策模型

高堆石坝施工后期导流工程实践中,在坝体挡水风险可控范围内增加封堵成本,可提前下闸蓄水获得发电效益,因而后期导流方案决策是不确定环境下的多目标决策问题,其决策指标具有一定区间范围内的偏好性。为增强指标及权重的客观性和可靠性,引入三参数区间数理论和灰靶理论,构建提前蓄水需求下的后期导流方案决策模型,即首先建立挡水风险率、提前蓄水效益及封堵成本为评价指标的数学表达及区间数表达;再结合决策者风险态度和区间数概率分布特征,提出三参数区间数测距法;最后基于灰靶理论与区间数测度法得到综合靶心距,构建指标权重优化模型并求解,最终对方案进行排序评价。结合工程实例,计算得到方案评价结果与工程实际吻合,并可根据评价结果对决策指标进一步择优,验证了该模型的有效性和可行性。     

Quantitative risk assessment on 2010 Expo hydrogen station

This paper presents a QRA study on a gaseous hydrogen refueling station of 2010 World Expo. Risks to station personnel, to refueling customers and to third parties are evaluated respectively. Uncertainties that intervene in the risk analysis are also discussed. The results show that the leaks from compressors and dispensers are the main risk contributors to first party and second party risks of the Expo station, indicating that risk mitigation measures should in the first place be implemented on compressors and dispensers. For the sake of the safety of station personnel, customers, and people outside the Expo station, additional safety barrier systems must be implemented on compressors and dispensers to prevent continuous release of hydrogen from happening. With appropriate mitigation measures on compressors and dispensers, risks to all three parties of the Expo station can be reduced to the value lower than the risk acceptance criteria.     

Cross-border effects of capacity mechanisms: Do uncoordinated market design changes contradict the goals of the European market integration?

This paper analyses cross-border effects of a strategic reserve (SR) and reliability options (ROs) based on a two-country simulation model. Using a game-theoretic approach, the countries' policy options for capacity remuneration mechanisms (CRMs) are analysed with respect to welfare and distribution effects. An SR tends to narrow down the market, while ROs intensify price competition. However, cross-border effects are most likely negative for consumers and producers in total in the case of a unilateral implementation of a CRM, and market design changes should be coordinated.All results are strongly driven by possible changes in competition and market power. In practice, the market design decision should also consider possible regulatory failures that might lead to further market distortions. The risk of market design flaws seems larger for full capacity markets such as ROs than for an SR, which requires only minor adjustments to the market design.     

International benchmarking of electricity transmission by regulators: A contrast between theory and practice?

Benchmarking of electricity networks has a key role in sharing the benefits of efficiency improvements with consumers and ensuring regulated companies earn a fair return on their investments. This paper analyses and contrasts the theory and practice of international benchmarking of electricity transmission by regulators. We examine the literature relevant to electricity transmission benchmarking and discuss the results of a survey of 25 national electricity regulators. While new panel data techniques aimed at dealing with unobserved heterogeneity and the validity of the comparator group look intellectually promising, our survey suggests that they are in their infancy for regulatory purposes. In electricity transmission, relative to electricity distribution, choosing variables is particularly difficult, because of the large number of potential variables to choose from. Failure to apply benchmarking appropriately may negatively affect investors’ willingness to invest in the future. While few of our surveyed regulators acknowledge that regulatory risk is currently an issue in transmission benchmarking, many more concede it might be. In the meantime new regulatory approaches – such as those based on tendering, negotiated settlements, a wider range of outputs or longer term grid planning – are emerging and will necessarily involve a reduced role for benchmarking.