Econometric analysis of the R&D performance in the national hydrogen energy technology development for measuring relative efficiency: The fuzzy AHP/DEA integrated model approach

Hydrogen energy technology can be one of the best key players related to the sector of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the hydrogen economy. Comparing to other technologies, hydrogen energy technology is more environmentally sound and friendly energy technology and has great potential as a future dominant energy carrier. Advanced nations including Korea have been focusing on the development of hydrogen energy technology R&D for the sustainable development and low carbon green society. In this paper, we applied the integrated fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (Fuzzy AHP) and the data envelopment analysis (DEA) for measuring the relative efficiency of the R&D performance in the national hydrogen energy technology development. On the first stage, the fuzzy AHP effectively reflects the vagueness of human thought. On the second stage, the DEA approach measures the relative efficiency of the national R&D performance in the sector of hydrogen energy technology development with economic viewpoints. The efficiency score can be the fundamental data for policymakers for the well focused R&D planning.     

A global survey of hydrogen energy research,development and policy

Several factors have led to growing interest in a hydrogen energy economy, especially for transportation. A successful transition to a major role for hydrogen will require much greater cost-effectiveness, fueling infrastructure, consumer acceptance, and a strategy for its basis in renewable energy feedstocks. Despite modest attention to the need for a sustainable hydrogen energy system in several countries, in most cases in the short to mid term hydrogen will be produced from fossil fuels. This paper surveys the global status of hydrogen energy research and development (R&D) and public policy, along with the likely energy mix for making it. The current state of hydrogen energy R&D among auto, energy and fuel-cell companies is also briefly reviewed. Just two major auto companies and two nations have specific targets and timetables for hydrogen fuel cells or vehicle production, although the EU also has an aggressive, less specific strategy. Iceland and Brazil are the only nations where renewable energy feedstocks are envisioned as the major or sole future source of hydrogen. None of these plans, however, are very certain. Thus, serious questions about the sustainability of a hydrogen economy can be raised.     

U.S. energy research and development: Declining investment,increasing need,and the feasibility of expansion

Investment in energy research and development in the U.S. is declining despite calls for an enhancement of the nation's capacity for innovation to address environmental, geopolitical, and macroeconomic concerns. We examine investments in research and development in the energy sector, and observe broad-based declines in funding since the mid-1990s. The large reductions in investment by the private sector should be a particular area of concern for policy makers. Multiple measures of patenting activity reveal widespread declines in innovative activity that are correlated with research and development (R&D) investment—notably in the environmentally significant wind and solar areas. Trends in venture capital investment and fuel cell innovation are two promising cases that run counter to the overall trends in the sector. We draw on prior work on the optimal level of energy R&D to identify a range of values which would be adequate to address energy-related concerns. Comparing simple scenarios based on this range to past public R&D programs and industry investment data indicates that a five to ten-fold increase in energy R&D investment is both warranted and feasible.     

South Korea's national pursuit for fuel cell electric vehicle development: The role of government R&D programs over 30 years (1989–2021)

This paper explains the role of the Korean government's National R&D Program over three decades for fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) development. The R&D programs had started far before FCEV was considered feasible. We call this as a national pursuit, since the R&D programs has been participated by not only car manufacturers but also various research institutions, including universities, in Korea's national innovation system. The Korean government has implemented a series of National R&D Programs throughout many stages, from selection of technology, building infrastructure and legislations, demonstration, and subsidizing mass-produced FCEVs. The authors analyzed all the government R&D programs from 1989 to 2021 to show the evolutionary changes in contexts and contents of the programs that have reflected varying expectations, government's industrial strategy, and the maturity of technologies through periods. This paper claims that Korea's FCEV development has been regarded as a long-run national industrial strategy, and the development has been persistently pursued in a national innovation systemic manner, such as combining public R&D sector with industries and strong institutional and organizational supports by government.     

Measuring the relative efficiency of hydrogen energy technologies for implementing the hydrogen economy: An integrated fuzzy AHP/DEA approach

To provide and improve national energy security and low-carbon green energy economy, as a government-supported research institute related to developing new and renewable energy technologies, including energy efficiency, Korea Institute of Energy Research (KIER) needs to establish a long-term strategic energy technology roadmap (ETRM) in the hydrogen economy sector for sustainable economic development. In this paper, we establish a strategic ETRM for hydrogen energy technologies in the hydrogen economy considering five criteria: economic impact (EI), commercial potential (CP), inner capacity (IC), technical spin-off (TS), and development cost (DC). As an extended research, we apply the integrated two-stage multi-criteria decision-making approach, including the hybrid fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, to assess the relative efficiency of hydrogen energy technologies in order to scientifically implement the hydrogen economy. Fuzzy AHP reflects the vagueness of human thought with interval values, and allocates the relative importance and weights of four criteria: EI, CP, IC, and TS. The DEA approach measures the relative efficiency of hydrogen energy technologies for the hydrogen economy with a ratio of outputs over inputs.The result of measuring the relative efficiency of hydrogen energy technologies focuses on 4 hydrogen technologies out of 13 hydrogen energy technologies. KIER has to focus on developing 4 strategic hydrogen energy technologies from economic view point in the first phase with limited resources. In addition, if energy policy makers consider as some candidates for strategic hydrogen technologies of the other 9 hydrogen energy technology, the performance and productivity of 9 hydrogen energy technologies should be increased and the input values of them have to be decreased.With a scientific decision-making approach, we can assess the relative efficiency of hydrogen energy technologies efficiently and allocate limited research and development (R&D) resources effectively for well-focused R&D.     

China's spent nuclear fuel management: Current practices and future strategies

Although China's nuclear power industry is relatively young and the management of its spent nuclear fuel is not yet a concern, China's commitment to nuclear energy and its rapid pace of development require detailed analyses of its future spent fuel management policies. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of China's fuel cycle program and its reprocessing policy, and to suggest strategies for managing its future fuel cycle program. The study is broken into four sections. The first reviews China's current nuclear fuel cycle program and facilities. The second discusses China's current spent fuel management methods and the storage capability of China's 13 operational nuclear power plants. The third estimates China's total accumulated spent fuel, its required spent fuel storage from present day until 2035, when China expects its first commercialized fast neutron reactors to be operational, and its likely demand for uranium resources. The fourth examines several spent fuel management scenarios for the present period up until 2035; the financial cost and proliferation risk of each scenario is evaluated. The study concludes that China can and should maintain a reprocessing operation to meet its R&D activities before its fast reactor program is further developed.     

The competitiveness of Korea as a developer of hydrogen energy technology: The AHP approach

Korea's need for energy conservation and alternative energy is greater than for any other nation. Korea imports more than 97% of its total energy consumption and ranks 10th in the world in terms of energy consumption. Developing hydrogen energy technology has great potential to cope with Korea's energy security and to establish Korea's hydrogen economy. In this study, we analysed the potential of Korea to be competitive in development of hydrogen energy technology using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach. In this paper, two scenario analyses are presented: in the first, the R&D budget is a criterion and in the second it is not. The results show that Korea is the sixth most competitive nation because of the low score for infrastructure required for hydrogen technology. In addition, compared with US results for both scenarios, patents, papers and proceedings, R&D budgets, and infrastructure for hydrogen technology are inferior to the US, which is ranked in first place for this sector. Korean policymakers have to concentrate on those sectors to strengthen Korea's competitiveness in the development of hydrogen energy technology.     

Technologies and policies for the transition to a sustainable energy system in china

The paper highlights the energy dilemma in China’s modernization process. It explores the technological and policy options for the transition to a sustainable energy system in China with Tsinghua University’s Low Carbon Energy Model (LCEM). China has already taken intensive efforts to promote research, development, demonstration and commercialization of sustainable energy technologies over the past five year. The policy actions cover binding energy conservation and environmental pollution control targets, economic incentives for sustainable energy, and public R&D supports. In order to achieve the sustainable energy system transformation eventually, however, China needs to take further actions such as strengthening R&D of radically innovative sustainable energy technologies and systems such as poly-generation, enhancing the domestic manufacturing capacity of sustainable energy technologies and systems, creating stronger economic incentives for research, development, demonstration and commercialization of sustainable energy technologies, and playing a leading role in international technology collaborations.     

R&D status and the performance of domestic firms in China's coal mining industry

Coal use accounts for a very large proportion of electricity production in China. Using a recently developed coarsened exact matching (CEM) technique, this paper examines the impact of research and development (R&D) activities on the performance of firms in China's coal mining industry. Our empirical results reveal that firms in China's coal industry that conduct R&D are more productive and their sales are higher. However, as far as the firm profitability and market shares are concerned, whether or not a firm in China's coal industry conducts R&D makes no difference. We find that foreign direct investment in China's coal mining industry leads to a significant decrease in the market share of domestic firms and its impact on productivity, sales and profitability of domestic firms is insignificant. The empirical results presented in this paper suggest that policies that encourage domestic firms in China's coal mining industries to conduct R&D can increase domestic production thereby reducing reliance on imports. Furthermore, productivity gains arising from R&D activities can also help Chinese mining firms to improve their competitive position in the international market. However, there is a need for restricting foreign direct investment in China's coal mining industry.     

Reprint of: Solar hydrogen production and its development in China

Because of the needs of sustainable development of the mankind society and natural environment building a renewable energy system is one of the most critical issues that today's society must address. In the new energy system there is a requirement for a renewable fuel to replace current energy carrier. Hydrogen is an ideal secondary energy. Using solar energy to produce hydrogen in large scale can solve the problems of sustainability, environmental emissions, and energy security and become the focus of the international society in the area of energy science and technology. It has also been set as an important research direction by many international hydrogen programs. The Ministry of Science and Technology of China supported and launched a project of National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) – the Basic Research of Mass Hydrogen Production using Solar Energy in 2003 for R&D in the areas of solar hydrogen production. The current status of solar hydrogen production research is reviewed and some significant results achieved in the project are reported in this paper. The trends of development and the future research directions in the field of solar hydrogen production in China are also briefly discussed.     

Hydrogen economy for a sustainable development: state-of-the-art and technological perspectives

Sustainable energy is becoming of increasing concern world-wide. The rapid growth of global climate changes along with the fear of energy supply shortage is creating a large consensus about the potential benefits of a hydrogen economy coming from renewable energy sources. The interesting perspectives are over-shadowed by uncertainties about the development of key technologies, such as renewable energy sources, advanced production processes, fuel cells, metal hydrides, nanostructures, standards and codes, and so on. The availability of critical technologies can create a base for the start of the hydrogen economy, as a fuel and energy carrier alternative to the current fossil resources. This paper will explore the rationale for such a revolution in the energy sector, will describe the state-of-the-art of major related technologies (fuel cell, storage systems, fuel cell vehicles) and current niche applications, and will sketch scientific and technological challenges and recommendations for research and development (R&D) initiatives to accelerate the pace for the widespread introduction of a hydrogen economy.     

Prioritizing the weights of hydrogen energy technologies in the sector of the hydrogen economy by using a fuzzy AHP approach

KIER, government supported research institute, establishes a long-term strategic energy technology development roadmap essentially with selection and specialization of energy technology R&D and for Korea's national security. In this paper, we establish a strategic hydrogen energy technology roadmap taking economic impact, commercial potential, inner capacity, and technical spin-off into account. We suggest a methodology to prioritize the relative weights of hydrogen energy technologies of hydrogen energy technology roadmap (ETRM) as we allocate R&D budget effectively using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which reflects the vagueness of human thoughts instead of crisp numbers efficiently. In the sector of the hydrogen ETRM which is composed of 6 hydrogen energy technologies, PEMFC technology is the most preferred and technology (0.29), followed by DEFC tech (0.28), SOFC tech (0.24), Hydrogen separation & storage tech (0.10), and Hydrogen production tech (0.09).     

Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model

Reasonable estimation of hydrogen energy and other renewable energy demand of China's medium and long-term energy is of great significance for China's medium and long-term energy plan. Therefore, based on both China's future economic development and relative economic theory and system dynamics theory, this article analyzes qualitatively the internal factors and external factors of hydrogen energy demand system, and makes the state high and low two assumptions about China's medium and long-term hydrogen demand according to the different speed of China's economic development. After the system dynamic model setting up export and operation, the output shows the data changes of the total hydrogen demand and the four kinds of hydrogen demand. According to the analysis of the output, two conclusions are concluded: The secondary industry, not the tertiary industry (mainly the transportation), should be firstly satisfied by the hydrogen R&D and support of Government policy. Change of Chinese hydrogen demand scale, on basis of its economic growth, can not be effective explained through Chinese economic growth rate, and other influencing factor and mechanism should be probed deeply.     

Impact of energy technology patents in China: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model

Enhancing energy technology innovation performance, which is widely measured by energy technology patents through energy technology research and development (R&D) activities, is a fundamental way to implement energy conservation and emission abatement. This study analyzes the effects of R&D investment activities, economic growth, and energy price on energy technology patents in 30 provinces of China over the period 1999–2013. Several unit root tests indicate that all the above variables are generated by panel unit root processes, and a panel cointegration model is confirmed among the variables. In order to ensure the consistency of the estimators, the Fully-Modified OLS (FMOLS) method is adopted, and the results indicate that R&D investment activities and economic growth have positive effects on energy technology patents while energy price has a negative effect. However, the panel error correction models indicate that the cointegration relationship helps to promote economic growth, but it reduces R&D investment and energy price in the short term. Therefore, market-oriented measures including financial support and technical transformation policies for the development of low-carbon energy technologies, an effective energy price mechanism, especially the targeted fossil-fuel subsidies and their die away mode are vital in promoting China's energy technology innovation.     

Challenges towards hydrogen economy in China

The increasingly serious energy crisis and environmental pollution caused by the excessive use of fossil fuels have been prompting China to aggressively seek a clean and self-sufficient energy source in the future. In the past decades, hydrogen has emerged as a promising alternative due to its advantages of cleanliness, abundance, high energy density, and high conversion efficiency. However, several challenges have to be overcome for China's successful transition to hydrogen economy. In this paper, the hydrogen supply chain is firstly described to help the readers to clearly understand the hydrogen economy. Subsequently, the feasibility of hydrogen economy is discussed by reviewing viewpoints from the literature. Finally, the challenges of China's transition to hydrogen economy are detailed summarized and discussed, and the strategies for China to develop hydrogen economy were compared with that of Japan and Australia.     

A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approach for assessing national competitiveness in the hydrogen technology sector

As it is more environmentally sound and friendly than conventional energy technologies that emit carbon dioxide, hydrogen technology can play a key role in solving the problems caused by the greenhouse gas effect and in coping with the hydrogen economy. Numerous countries around the world, including Korea, have increasingly focused on R&D where hydrogen technology development is concerned. This paper focuses on the use of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (fuzzy AHP), which is an extension of the AHP method and uses interval values to reflect the vagueness of human thought, to assess national competitiveness in the hydrogen technology sector. This analysis based on the AHP and fuzzy AHP methods revealed that Korea ranked 6th in terms of national competitiveness in the hydrogen technology sector.     

The achievement,significance and future prospect of China's renewable energy initiative

China's high-speed economic growth and ambitious urbanization depend heavily on the massive consumption of fossil fuel. However, the over-dependence on the depleting fossil fuels causes severe environmental problems, making China the largest energy consumer and the biggest CO₂ emitter in the world. Faced with significant challenges in terms of managing its environment and moving forward with the concept of sustainable economic development, the Chinese government plans to move away from fossil fuels and rely on renewables such as hydropower, wind power, solar power, biomass power and nuclear power. In this paper, the current status of China's renewable energy deployment and the ongoing development projects are summarized and discussed. Most recent developments of major renewable energy sources are clearly reviewed. Additionally, the renewable energy development policies including laws and regulations, economic encouragement, technical research and development are also summarized. This study showcases China's achievements in exploiting its abundant domestic renewable energy sources to meet the future energy demand and reducing carbon emissions. To move toward a low carbon society, technological progress and policy improvements are needed for improving grid access (wind), securing nuclear fuel supplies and managing safety protocols (nuclear), integrating supply chains to achieve indigenous manufacture of technologies across supply chains (solar). Beyond that, a preliminary prediction of the development of China's future renewable energy developments, and proposes targeted countermeasures and suggestions are proposed. The proposal involves developing smart-grid system, investing on renewable energy research, improving the feed-in tariff system and clarifying the subsidy system.     

System failure,innovation policy and patents: Fuel cells and related hydrogen technology in Norway 1990–2002

The empirical focus of this article is technological innovation activities in the emerging field of fuel cells and related hydrogen technology in Norway from 1990 to 2002. In this period, four comparatively large-scale research and development projects and a number of smaller projects aimed at development of fuel cells technology were undertaken, resulting in many inventions that were subsequently patented. Although this creativity may be considered an indication of success, only one of the projects became successful in an innovation perspective. All the large projects were initiated and funded for divergent political and economic reasons. An important reason in the late 1980s was the prospect of using Norway's abundant supply of natural gas in fuel cells for electric power generation. The large R&D projects that attempted to develop fuel cells based on natural gas as energy source failed. In contrast, the successful project was undertaken by military R&D, i.e. in a different system of innovation than the projects that failed. Analysis of these cases points to the importance of a systemic approach to innovations—and to policy making. One challenge for policy makers is to decide how they should promote this development which is crucial for the vision of a future “Hydrogen Economy”, i.e. what kind of policy incentives should be introduced to spur efficiency in technological development and diffusion. Theoretically, many options are available; however, understanding the innovation dynamics in this sector is fundamental for making choices. In this article, focus will be set on policy aspects using an innovation systemic approach to analyze development of fuel cells and related hydrogen technology in Norway.     

Alternative energy development strategies for China towards 2030

The purposes, objectives and technology pathways for alternative energy development are discussed with the aim of reaching sustainable energy development in China. Special attention has been paid to alternative power and alternative vehicle fuels. Instead of limiting alternative energy to energy sources such as nuclear and renewable energy, the scope of discussion is extended to alternative technologies such as coal power with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), electric and hydrogen vehicles. In order to take account of the fact that China’s sustainable energy development involves many dimensions, a six-dimensional indicator set has been established and applied with the aim of comprehensively evaluating different technology pathways in a uniform way. The analysis reaches the following conclusions: (a) in the power sector, wind power, nuclear power and hydro power should be developed as much as possible, while R&D of solar power and coal power with CCS should be strengthened continuously for future deployment. (b) in the transportation sector, there is no foreseeable silver bullet to replace oil on a large scale within the time frame of 20 to 30 years. To ease the severe energy security situation, expedient choices like coal derived fuels could be developed. However, its scale should be optimized in accordance to the trade-off of energy security benefits, production costs and environmental costs. Desirable alternative fuels (or technologies) like 2nd generation biofuels and electrical vehicles should be the subject of intensive R&D with the objective to be cost effective as early as possible.     

The role of hydrogen energy development in the Korean economy: An input–output analysis

Korea has been developing hydrogen energy technology to enhance its energy security. The Hydrogen Energy R&D Center established by the Korean government invested about 100 billion Korean won (KRW) into the development of hydrogen energy technology from 2003 to 2012. This study uses input–output (I–O) analysis, along with the scenario–based exogenous specification method, to investigate the effect of hydrogen energy technology investment on the Korean economy for the period 2020–2040. We focus on two perspectives: (1) the sectoral linkage effect and (2) the sectoral impacts of hydrogen energy supply investments. The overall results reveal that the hydrogen sector can be characterized as intermediate primary production because of its high backward and forward linkage effects. By 2040, total production in the hydrogen sector under two scenarios will be 13,484 and 2979 billion KRW, respectively. This study is a pioneering study into the assessment of the economy–wide effects of Korea's hydrogen energy industries.