Measuring the relative efficiency of hydrogen energy technologies for implementing the hydrogen economy: An integrated fuzzy AHP/DEA approach

To provide and improve national energy security and low-carbon green energy economy, as a government-supported research institute related to developing new and renewable energy technologies, including energy efficiency, Korea Institute of Energy Research (KIER) needs to establish a long-term strategic energy technology roadmap (ETRM) in the hydrogen economy sector for sustainable economic development. In this paper, we establish a strategic ETRM for hydrogen energy technologies in the hydrogen economy considering five criteria: economic impact (EI), commercial potential (CP), inner capacity (IC), technical spin-off (TS), and development cost (DC). As an extended research, we apply the integrated two-stage multi-criteria decision-making approach, including the hybrid fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, to assess the relative efficiency of hydrogen energy technologies in order to scientifically implement the hydrogen economy. Fuzzy AHP reflects the vagueness of human thought with interval values, and allocates the relative importance and weights of four criteria: EI, CP, IC, and TS. The DEA approach measures the relative efficiency of hydrogen energy technologies for the hydrogen economy with a ratio of outputs over inputs.The result of measuring the relative efficiency of hydrogen energy technologies focuses on 4 hydrogen technologies out of 13 hydrogen energy technologies. KIER has to focus on developing 4 strategic hydrogen energy technologies from economic view point in the first phase with limited resources. In addition, if energy policy makers consider as some candidates for strategic hydrogen technologies of the other 9 hydrogen energy technology, the performance and productivity of 9 hydrogen energy technologies should be increased and the input values of them have to be decreased.With a scientific decision-making approach, we can assess the relative efficiency of hydrogen energy technologies efficiently and allocate limited research and development (R&D) resources effectively for well-focused R&D.     

Prioritizing the weights of hydrogen energy technologies in the sector of the hydrogen economy by using a fuzzy AHP approach

KIER, government supported research institute, establishes a long-term strategic energy technology development roadmap essentially with selection and specialization of energy technology R&D and for Korea's national security. In this paper, we establish a strategic hydrogen energy technology roadmap taking economic impact, commercial potential, inner capacity, and technical spin-off into account. We suggest a methodology to prioritize the relative weights of hydrogen energy technologies of hydrogen energy technology roadmap (ETRM) as we allocate R&D budget effectively using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which reflects the vagueness of human thoughts instead of crisp numbers efficiently. In the sector of the hydrogen ETRM which is composed of 6 hydrogen energy technologies, PEMFC technology is the most preferred and technology (0.29), followed by DEFC tech (0.28), SOFC tech (0.24), Hydrogen separation & storage tech (0.10), and Hydrogen production tech (0.09).     

A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approach for assessing national competitiveness in the hydrogen technology sector

As it is more environmentally sound and friendly than conventional energy technologies that emit carbon dioxide, hydrogen technology can play a key role in solving the problems caused by the greenhouse gas effect and in coping with the hydrogen economy. Numerous countries around the world, including Korea, have increasingly focused on R&D where hydrogen technology development is concerned. This paper focuses on the use of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (fuzzy AHP), which is an extension of the AHP method and uses interval values to reflect the vagueness of human thought, to assess national competitiveness in the hydrogen technology sector. This analysis based on the AHP and fuzzy AHP methods revealed that Korea ranked 6th in terms of national competitiveness in the hydrogen technology sector.     

A study on making a long-term improvement in the national energy efficiency and GHG control plans by the AHP approach

Owing to the expiration of the national 10-year period plan and the establishment of an efficient energy and resource technology R&D system, the Korean government needs to make a strategic long-term national energy and resource technology R&D plan (NERP) to cope with forthcoming 10-year period. A new NERP aims to improve the energy intensity, reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas within the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC), and contribute to the construction of an advanced economic system. We determine the priorities in technology development for the energy efficiency and greenhouse gas control plans (EGCP), which are parts of a new NERP, by using the AHP approach for the first time. We suggest a scientific procedure to determine the priorities in technology development by using AHP.     

The competitiveness of Korea as a developer of hydrogen energy technology: The AHP approach

Korea's need for energy conservation and alternative energy is greater than for any other nation. Korea imports more than 97% of its total energy consumption and ranks 10th in the world in terms of energy consumption. Developing hydrogen energy technology has great potential to cope with Korea's energy security and to establish Korea's hydrogen economy. In this study, we analysed the potential of Korea to be competitive in development of hydrogen energy technology using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach. In this paper, two scenario analyses are presented: in the first, the R&D budget is a criterion and in the second it is not. The results show that Korea is the sixth most competitive nation because of the low score for infrastructure required for hydrogen technology. In addition, compared with US results for both scenarios, patents, papers and proceedings, R&D budgets, and infrastructure for hydrogen technology are inferior to the US, which is ranked in first place for this sector. Korean policymakers have to concentrate on those sectors to strengthen Korea's competitiveness in the development of hydrogen energy technology.     

A model-based assessment of the impact of revitalised R&D investments on the European power sector

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of enhanced research and development (R&D) efforts for a set of low-carbon power technologies on the development of the European energy sector. It applies a methodology using the concept of Two-Factor-Learning, which quantitatively links trends in technology cost to both accumulated R&D investments and production volumes. The impacts of the latter on the energy sector are then simulated in a consistent manner with the POLES global energy model. On this basis, it compares the total system costs of an assumed increase in worldwide R&D investments that for the EU are in line with proposals made in its European Strategic Energy Technology Plan to a baseline development. It finds that an increase in research efforts at a global level will contribute to reducing the costs of currently less mature low-carbon technologies, thus accelerating their market entry. When comparing two scenarios that both fulfil the EU's 2020 energy and climate objectives and differing only in their R&D investment levels, the reduced technology costs allow EU support policies for renewables and carbon values to be reduced, and the cumulative (discounted) benefit of the accelerated research efforts is positive in the long term.     

Hydrogen in China: Policy,program and progress

The paper introduces the role of energy in China economy context, criteria for sustainable development in energy sector, China's hydrogen vision, the role of hydrogen in China's R&D plan, recently launched national programs, and progresses and achievements in research, development and demonstration. The paper concludes that with fast economy development in the new era in China, the energy sector has been confronted with severe challenges in terms of supply security, environment pollution and greenhouse gas emission, and China has attached significant priority on research and development in hydrogen and fuel cell areas, as one of effective counter-measures to address these challenges. Transition to the hydrogen economy in China, a long-term, non-carbon energy solution, is believed to play a significant role, complementary to electricity, in the future sustainable energy system. It is recommended that more priority be attached for R&D in secondary industry, especially the utilization of hydrogen and fuel cell in stationary power generation from coal gasification.     

The country-dependent shaping of ‘hydrogen niche’ formation: A comparative case study of the UK and South Korea from the innovation system perspective

This paper reports an international comparison of hydrogen niche formation in the UK and South Korea with special regard to policy development. Hydrogen energy development has provided us with a good example of ongoing phenomena during the early stage of socio-technical transition, in other words, the socio-technical niche. The purpose of the case studies was to see the country dependence in shaping the early stage (the period between the year 2002 and 2005) of hydrogen niche formation from the national innovation system perspective. The findings show certain differences in the background of hydrogen energy policies and the manners of policy development. There also are differences in the R&D activities, including not only the way in which they are performed, but also the strategic focussing of R&D, which have been influenced by R&D systems and the industrial structures of the national innovation systems. Vision-articulating processes and the roles and tendency towards intervention of governments are diverse. The research result will contribute to better understanding of the geography of socio-technical transition with empirical evidence. From that, one will be hinted that the hydrogen future may be diverse in different locations.     

South Korea's national pursuit for fuel cell electric vehicle development: The role of government R&D programs over 30 years (1989–2021)

This paper explains the role of the Korean government's National R&D Program over three decades for fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) development. The R&D programs had started far before FCEV was considered feasible. We call this as a national pursuit, since the R&D programs has been participated by not only car manufacturers but also various research institutions, including universities, in Korea's national innovation system. The Korean government has implemented a series of National R&D Programs throughout many stages, from selection of technology, building infrastructure and legislations, demonstration, and subsidizing mass-produced FCEVs. The authors analyzed all the government R&D programs from 1989 to 2021 to show the evolutionary changes in contexts and contents of the programs that have reflected varying expectations, government's industrial strategy, and the maturity of technologies through periods. This paper claims that Korea's FCEV development has been regarded as a long-run national industrial strategy, and the development has been persistently pursued in a national innovation systemic manner, such as combining public R&D sector with industries and strong institutional and organizational supports by government.     

R&D investment strategy for climate change

The economic costs of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming century depend critically on the development of new technologies in the energy sector. Our research and development (R&D) investment strategy is the control variable for technology availability. This paper proposes an analytic framework for determining optimal R&D investment allocation and presents some numerical results to demonstrate the implementation of the methodology. The value of technological advance in three targeted areas–fossil-based generation, renewables, and carbon capture and storage–is represented by the increase in expected welfare in the presence of an emissions policy constraint of initially uncertain stringency. R&D expenditure increases the probability of advance. Optimal investment is determined by its relationship with success probability, which is assumed to exhibit decreasing returns to scale, relative to the value of success. While the numerical results are speculative, the paper offers insights into the nature of an optimal technology strategy for addressing climate change.     

The role of hydrogen energy development in the Korean economy: An input–output analysis

Korea has been developing hydrogen energy technology to enhance its energy security. The Hydrogen Energy R&D Center established by the Korean government invested about 100 billion Korean won (KRW) into the development of hydrogen energy technology from 2003 to 2012. This study uses input–output (I–O) analysis, along with the scenario–based exogenous specification method, to investigate the effect of hydrogen energy technology investment on the Korean economy for the period 2020–2040. We focus on two perspectives: (1) the sectoral linkage effect and (2) the sectoral impacts of hydrogen energy supply investments. The overall results reveal that the hydrogen sector can be characterized as intermediate primary production because of its high backward and forward linkage effects. By 2040, total production in the hydrogen sector under two scenarios will be 13,484 and 2979 billion KRW, respectively. This study is a pioneering study into the assessment of the economy–wide effects of Korea's hydrogen energy industries.     

U.S. energy research and development: Declining investment,increasing need,and the feasibility of expansion

Investment in energy research and development in the U.S. is declining despite calls for an enhancement of the nation's capacity for innovation to address environmental, geopolitical, and macroeconomic concerns. We examine investments in research and development in the energy sector, and observe broad-based declines in funding since the mid-1990s. The large reductions in investment by the private sector should be a particular area of concern for policy makers. Multiple measures of patenting activity reveal widespread declines in innovative activity that are correlated with research and development (R&D) investment—notably in the environmentally significant wind and solar areas. Trends in venture capital investment and fuel cell innovation are two promising cases that run counter to the overall trends in the sector. We draw on prior work on the optimal level of energy R&D to identify a range of values which would be adequate to address energy-related concerns. Comparing simple scenarios based on this range to past public R&D programs and industry investment data indicates that a five to ten-fold increase in energy R&D investment is both warranted and feasible.     

Energy technology roadmap for the next 10 years: The case of Korea

The Korea Institute of Energy Research (KIER), the only government-sponsored research institute specialized in the development of energy technology and policy, has established a long-term strategic energy technology roadmap (ETRM) for the period spanning from 2006 to 2015. Taking into account such variables as the energy environment, economic spin-off, and commercial potential, the ETRM was classified into 3 sectors, namely high oil prices, the UNFCCC, and the hydrogen economy. The ETRM not only represents a milestone in terms of the development of national energy technology in Korea, but also serves to identify the primary energy technologies which should be developed. The ETRM also supplies energy policymakers with successful R&D alternatives vis-à-vis the development of energy technologies under the current Korean energy environment.     

The development of advanced energy technologies in Japan: IGCC: A key technology for the 21st century

Integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plants have been looked to as a key technology for the 21st century in order to realize high efficiency and good environmental performance for electricity generation, replacing existing coal fired power plants.Following successful completion of a 200 ton/d pilot project in Nakoso, IGCC technology development in Japan is moving from the stage of a feasibility study to a detailed study to allow final decisions for demonstration plant construction. The feasibility study, jointly conducted by the domestic electric power companies, found MHI's IGCC technology to have several advantages in efficiency and reliability. In parallel with the study, a number of R&D tests have been executed as a national project to facilitate scaling up from the pilot plant to the demonstration plant. This paper introduces the current status of the MHI's IGCC technological development.     

Alternative energy development strategies for China towards 2030

The purposes, objectives and technology pathways for alternative energy development are discussed with the aim of reaching sustainable energy development in China. Special attention has been paid to alternative power and alternative vehicle fuels. Instead of limiting alternative energy to energy sources such as nuclear and renewable energy, the scope of discussion is extended to alternative technologies such as coal power with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), electric and hydrogen vehicles. In order to take account of the fact that China’s sustainable energy development involves many dimensions, a six-dimensional indicator set has been established and applied with the aim of comprehensively evaluating different technology pathways in a uniform way. The analysis reaches the following conclusions: (a) in the power sector, wind power, nuclear power and hydro power should be developed as much as possible, while R&D of solar power and coal power with CCS should be strengthened continuously for future deployment. (b) in the transportation sector, there is no foreseeable silver bullet to replace oil on a large scale within the time frame of 20 to 30 years. To ease the severe energy security situation, expedient choices like coal derived fuels could be developed. However, its scale should be optimized in accordance to the trade-off of energy security benefits, production costs and environmental costs. Desirable alternative fuels (or technologies) like 2nd generation biofuels and electrical vehicles should be the subject of intensive R&D with the objective to be cost effective as early as possible.     

Alternative energy development strategies for China towards 2030

The purposes, objectives and technology pathways for alternative energy development are discussed with the aim of reaching sustainable energy development in China. Special attention has been paid to alternative power and alternative vehicle fuels. Instead of limiting alternative energy to energy sources such as nuclear and renewable energy, the scope of discussion is extended to alternative technologies such as coal power with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), electric and hydrogen vehicles. In order to take account of the fact that China’s sustainable energy development involves many dimensions, a six-dimensional indicator set has been established and applied with the aim of comprehensively evaluating different technology pathways in a uniform way. The analysis reaches the following conclusions: (a) in the power sector, wind power, nuclear power and hydro power should be developed as much as possible, while R&D of solar power and coal power with CCS should be strengthened continuously for future deployment. (b) in the transportation sector, there is no foreseeable silver bullet to replace oil on a large scale within the time frame of 20 to 30 years. To ease the severe energy security situation, expedient choices like coal derived fuels could be developed. However, its scale should be optimized in accordance to the trade-off of energy security benefits, production costs and environmental costs. Desirable alternative fuels (or technologies) like 2nd generation biofuels and electrical vehicles should be the subject of intensive R&D with the objective to be cost effective as early as possible.     

Impact of energy technology patents in China: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model

Enhancing energy technology innovation performance, which is widely measured by energy technology patents through energy technology research and development (R&D) activities, is a fundamental way to implement energy conservation and emission abatement. This study analyzes the effects of R&D investment activities, economic growth, and energy price on energy technology patents in 30 provinces of China over the period 1999–2013. Several unit root tests indicate that all the above variables are generated by panel unit root processes, and a panel cointegration model is confirmed among the variables. In order to ensure the consistency of the estimators, the Fully-Modified OLS (FMOLS) method is adopted, and the results indicate that R&D investment activities and economic growth have positive effects on energy technology patents while energy price has a negative effect. However, the panel error correction models indicate that the cointegration relationship helps to promote economic growth, but it reduces R&D investment and energy price in the short term. Therefore, market-oriented measures including financial support and technical transformation policies for the development of low-carbon energy technologies, an effective energy price mechanism, especially the targeted fossil-fuel subsidies and their die away mode are vital in promoting China's energy technology innovation.     

Decision support for selecting exportable nuclear technology using the analytic hierarchy process: A Korean case

The Korean government plans to increase strategically focused R&D investment in some promising nuclear technology areas to create export opportunities of technology in a global nuclear market. The purpose of this paper is to present a decision support process for selecting promising nuclear technology with the perspective of exportability by using the AHP based on extensive data gathered from nuclear experts in Korea. In this study, the decision criteria for evaluating the export competitiveness of nuclear technologies were determined, and a hierarchical structure for the decision-making process was systematically developed. Subsequently relative weights of decision criteria were derived using AHP methodology and the export competitiveness of nuclear technology alternatives was quantified to prioritize them. We discuss the implications of our results with a viewpoint toward national nuclear technology policy.     

Technology S-curves in renewable energy alternatives: Analysis and implications for industry and government

Plotting the performance of a technology against the money or effort invested in it most often yields an S-shaped curve: slow initial improvement, then accelerated improvement, then diminishing improvement. These S-curves can be used to gain insight into the relative payoff of investment in competing technologies, as well as providing some insight into when and why some technologies overtake others in the race for dominance. Analyzing renewable energies from such a technology S-curve perspective reveals some surprising and important implications for both government and industry. Using data on government R&D investment and technological improvement (in the form of cost reductions), we show that both wind energy and geothermal energy are poised to become more economical than fossil fuels within a relatively short time frame. The evidence further suggests that R&D for wind and geothermal technologies has been under-funded by national governments relative to funding for solar technologies, and government funding of fossil fuel technologies might be excessive given the diminishing performance of those technologies.     

Power sector reforms in Brazil and its impacts on energy efficiency and research and development activities

Since the mid-nineties Brazil has implemented significant changes in the country's power sector, including privatization, introduction of competition and the creation of regulatory agency. As reform started in Brazil traditional support to energy efficiency and energy research and development suffered a discontinuation, budget cuts and re-definition of roles of the public agents in charge. At the same time, new regulatory measures and the creation of a national public interest fund have helped to maintain and potentially enhance the country's effort to promote energy efficiency and investments in energy R&D. This paper analyses the impacts of these changes in the areas of energy efficiency and energy research and development and argues for an increased role of developing countries to provide solutions for a meeting energy demand requirements more suitable to their internal markets.