关于我国风电设备招标体制的思考

我国风能资源丰富,大力发展风力发电对调整能源结构、保障能源安全、应对气候变化、促进经济社会可持续发展具有重要意义。近年来,在国家支持可再生能源发展和重大装备研发等政策的推动下,我国风电装机     

基于投入产出模型的能源经济易损性分析

本文通过分析表明在四大主要能源行业经济易损性下降的同时,其价格易损性却是在不断上升的。随着我国能源对外依存度的不断增加和国际油价的剧烈波动,提高能源利用效率、合理调整产业结构以降低能源易损性是保障国家能源安全的重要任务。     

可再生能源是保障能源安全的重要力量

正全国人大代表、远景科技集团CEO张雷表示,十四五期间,能源革命将进入关键阶段,全球应对气候危机更加紧迫。在国际能源发展新趋势的大背景下,需要更加深入和全面认识能源安全。可再生能源将成为保障能源安全的重要力量。化石能源时代,能源安全是指一个国家的能源可以实现自给自足,或者能够通过进口保障供应。可持续发展和生态文明     

能源安全政策的国际比较

国际能源新秩序正逐步形成,能源安全已成为世界各国国家安全的重要组成部分,本文结合国内外能源安全的研究,从能源政治、经济、技术等方面系统地论述了主要油气进口国家的能源安全政策,通过对能源外交、能源进口、石油战略储备等政策的比较分析,提出了对我国能源安全政策的几点启示。     

低油价下国际油气工业的变化及我国的应对策略

2014年以来国际油价持续走低,国际能源公司纷纷出台应对策略。本轮低油价受到供需基本面持续宽松、新能源冲击、美元升值以及能源大国政治博弈等多重因素影响,而且由于美国页岩气革命持续发力、伊朗回归国际石油市场、国际原油储备高企以及石油需求国原油进口量减少等原因,未来供过于求的局面短期内难以改变。油价下跌导致新的国际油气工业布局正在形成,国际能源供给中心正逐步由中东向美洲转移,亚洲地区成为全球油气需求中心。低油价下,美国减少了对绿色能源与环保的资助并转向化石能源;中东产油国纷纷调整国内经济政策,并最终达成减产保价协议;俄罗斯积极支持能源产业发展,同时谋求能源供给和商品出口形式多样化;中国政府为了应对低油价对能源结构的影响,加快推进能源领域油气体制改革。低油价下我国油气企业应调整经营模式,聚焦核心业务,推进股权重组和资产优化;从国家能源发展战略角度,稳定国内生产,加强国际合作;积极推进油气市场化改革,加快建立我国石油天然气期货市场;持续保障重大科技专项资金投入,提升关键技术和高端设备国产化水平。     

日本新国家能源战略及对我国的启示

2003年以来,受国际局势剧烈动荡、国际油价持续上涨、世界能源格局发生巨大变化等因素影响,能源供应安全再次引起各国的高度关注。近几年来许多国家纷纷调整或制定能源战略和能源政策,以确保能源安全。2006年5月29日,日本政府也颁布了《日本新国家能源战略》。目前,我国已把能源战略研究列入政府重要议事日程。深入研究日本的能源战略,借鉴他国的经验,对我国研究制定中长期能源战略是十分有益的。为此,现将《日本新国家能源战略》的要点作简要介绍。     

碳中和背景下的深层页岩勘探开发

碳中和是我国应对气候变化、调整能源结构的重要战略举措.在碳减排、碳中和政策背景下,我国化石能源领域必将迎来重要的结构调整和转型升级,页岩气作为重要的清洁非常规能源类型和国家能源安全的重要保障,也将在这一阶段扮演重要角色.文中通过对我国传统能源转型和能源结构调整的分析,表明我国深层页岩气资源将在能源结构调整中起到重要接续...     

能源安全的发展进程

20世纪80年代以来,以供应安全为主要出发点的传统的能源安全观逐渐向着所谓综合能源安全的方向发展,人们对环境保护和可持续发展问题逐渐达成共识。随着环保运动的发展,约瑟夫·欧姆在1993年又为能源安全增加了环境保护的向度：“90年代能源安全的目标是通过增加经济竞争力和减少环境恶化,确保充足可靠的能源服务。”1997年《京都议定书》的签订标志着世界各国重新界定了能源安全的概念,在国家能源发展战略中,增加了能源的使用不应对人类自身生存与发展的生态环境构成大的威胁的要求。能源供应、经济竞争力和环境质量成为保障国家能源安全的3个基本要素。     

能源安全要重视内部因素 强调政策体制保障

中国在2002年又创了石油进口的新高。按目前的趋势,中国将在今后一两年内超过日本而成为世界第二,亚洲最大的石油消费国。石油进口的来源将越来越多地依赖于中东地区。能源安全因关系到国家的经济安全,环境安全和国防安全而受到了中国政府的高度重视。然而,中国缺少对能源安全的全面认识和系统组织。最近爆发的伊拉克战争在中国的能源界兴起了能源安全讨论的热潮。与此同时,中国政府的各部门正在经受着应对“非典型肺炎”这样的社会突发事件的严峻考验。把两者表面上毫不相关的事情结合起来,就会引出这样的问题:中国在能源安全方面有没有形成系统,长远的机制?本文认为保障国家能源安全必须从国内因素开始,即只有采取强力有效的措施和系统化的组织,中国才能应对新的能源安全挑战。在着重分析国内影响能源安全因素的基础上,本文为中国建立长期、全面、有效的能源安全系统提出了一系列政策建议。     

新时代中国能源安全分析及政策建议

能源安全对于保障国家经济发展和人民生活具有重要作用,我国进入新时代赋予了能源安全更为丰富的内涵。新时代能源安全内涵主要包括可获取性、可支付性、可高效清洁利用性和政府能源治理能力4个方面。本文基于新架构对中国能源安全现状进行了分析,可以看出当前我国能源安全状况良好,但仍然存在风险。为更好的提升未来能源安全水平,我国应推行深入能源供给侧改革以及促进能源协同发展等政策。     

Joint stockpiling and emergency sharing of oil: Arrangements for regional cooperation in East Asia

The East Asia region includes three of the world's top five oil-importing nations—China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. As a consequence, international oil supply disruptions and oil price spikes, and their effects on the economies of the region, have historically been of significant concern. Each of these three nations, as well as other nations in East Asia, has developed or is developing their own strategic oil stockpiles, but regional coordination in stockpiling arrangements and sharing of oil stocks in an emergency could provide significant benefits. This article describes the overall oil supply security situation in East Asia, reviews the attributes of different stockpiling arrangements to address energy supply security concerns, summarizes ongoing national approaches to stockpiling in East Asia, describes the development of joint oil stockpile initiatives in the region, and suggests the most attractive options for regional cooperation on oil stockpiling issues.     

Using size distribution analysis to forecast natural gas resources in Asia Pacific

Increasing energy consumption in Asia Pacific will largely be met by fossil fuels. Natural gas production in the region presently ranks behind that of oil and coal. However, the abundance of gas could lead to a significant gas market share increase in the energy mix. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the total endowment of conventional gas in Asia Pacific. This is carried out with a Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) model that forecasts volumes in provinces that have not been previously evaluated. The endowment is then distributed across countries to show where volumes are most likely to be found. A breakdown between offshore versus onshore resources is also estimated. The results of the analysis show there is a significant gas endowment. The estimated distribution across countries and onshore/offshore areas provides insight into the relative economics of gas production, as well as a basis for potential investment decisions. With appropriate energy policies, it may be possible to tap the vast gas potential in Asia Pacific. Considering gas may be the most abundant, inexpensive, and clean fossil fuel, the outcome would be increased energy security and a low carbon economy.     

Adjustment and energy: Dangers of a demand-side obsession

Short-term energy adjustment, based on the now-dominant IMF model, is in strong conflict with that required for longer term development and growth. The world economic recovery is threatened by structural, cyclical, and other factors, including the debt problem of developing countries, commodity price surges, and potential energy problems. Short-term adjustment impacts on longer-term policy and investment in the energy sector, assuring that economic recovery will demand rapid increases in oil imports for oil-importer developing countries. National policies in industrial countries to squeeze energy have been very successful, but have likely deepened the recession and intensified some cyclic aspects of investment and development. Oil supply is still strongly influenced by OPEC, and only through heightened appreciation of recession-recovery cycles will the tremendous importance of the potential resources of oil-importer developing countries be recognized - a first step towards the inevitably multilateral framework needed for their development.     

Modelling the transport sector fuel demand for developng economies

This paper concentrates on the transport sector of six developing countries with similar common denominators, namely Turkey, Thailand, Pakistan, Morocco, Tunisia and Malaysia. By using standard econometric techniques, we analyse the evolution of oil demand for road transport in these countries in relation to independent variables such as income, population, price of gasoline and diesel etc. Unlike the treatment in the present literature on the subject, gasoline and diesel consumption are estimated separately due to the high share of diesel in the total transport sector consumption. On the basis of the estimation over the period 1970–1990, on a country by country basis, we forecast the demand for these six countries until 2010. The results of this study indicate that the transport sector will be the driving force for energy and oil demand as part of economic growth in these developing countries. Its share in the future energy market structure is expected to grow. Consequently, the (pricing) policies of oil products in this sector have a crucial role for shaping rational economic and energy strategies within the framework of rising environmental concern.     

Energy consumption and economic growth: The case of oil exporting countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between the per capita energy consumption and the per capita GDP in a panel of 11 selected oil exporting countries by using panel unit-root tests and panel cointegration analysis. The results show a unidirectional strong causality from economic growth to energy consumption for the oil exporting countries. The findings have practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning. In most major oil exporting countries, government policies keep domestic prices bellow free market level, resulting in high levels of domestic energy consumption. The results imply that the energy conservation through reforming energy price policies has no damaging repercussions on economic growth for this group of countries.     

Asian energy and environmental policy: Promoting growth while preserving the environment

Asia has experienced spectacular economic growth over the past two decades. However, this economic progress has come at a high cost. It has led to unprecedented environmental consequences. So this region needs to shift the conventional pattern of “develop first and then treat the pollution” to a trajectory of sustainable development. To that end, this paper examines a variety of policy responses, at national, regional and international levels, to deal with growing concerns about the environmental challenges in Asia. In the context of national responses, special attention is paid to the following issues: coordination between the central and local governments, market-based environmental instruments and industrial policies, tougher emissions standards for mobile and stationary sources and fuel quality, policies to promote energy efficiency and the use of clean energy and biofuels, the integration of environmental policies with economic and sectoral policies, and engagement of the private sector through e.g., ecolabelling, green government procurement, corporate ratings and disclosure programs, and drawing the support of financial institutions to promote improved corporate environmental performance. The paper concludes that having the right policy mix, coupled with strengthened cooperation at national, local and regional levels, will ensure continuing economic growth in the region without compromising its limited ecological-carrying capacity and environmental quality.     

Issues related to rural electrification using renewable energy in developing countries of Asia and Pacific

Renewable energy (RE) systems represent the most environmentally friendly and cost-effective means of providing electricity to those living in rural communities or regions in developing countries, however, this has been relatively slow and in many countries the proportion of the rural population supplied with electricity remains low and the proportion supplied with electricity from renewable energy systems is even lower. To understand the causes of this slow progress, a literatures review on renewable rural electrification programs was undertaken. The review suggested a need for better coordination at the national level between those institutions involved in the development and implementation of these programs. This paper compiles and analyse the issues associated with rural electrification in developing countries in Asia and the Pacific. Two case studies of programs are presented, one in Bangladesh and the other in Fiji. Based on the literature review and these two case studies, comments are provided on the policies and strategies required for renewable energy based rural electrification programs.     

Asia energy mixes from socio-economic and environmental perspectives

Sustainable clean energy is the top social, economic, and environmental agenda of political leaders, policy makers, enlightened business executives, and civil society in Asia. Strong economic growth in Asia has caused a great demand for energy which has resulted in an enormous increase in CO₂ emissions. The association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN), India, China, South Korea and Japan are the most important regions in Asia as their economies have been growing steadily. These countries though heavily dependent on fossil fuels have stepped up their measures towards low-carbon society amid domestic affordability challenges and changing global mindset. This report highlights the current energy scenario in these countries and their effort towards an affordable and sustainable clean energy future. The energy policy to enhance energy security and improve environmental sustainability is also explicated in this article.     

亚太地区石油制品需求形势分析

据估算,与2001年相比,2002年亚太地区石油制品需求的增长值为215千桶/天,其中中国的需求增长量占总增长量的65%(与上年相比,中国在2002年的增长值为140千桶/天)。与此同时,尽管由于核电厂问题的影响使得日本更多的开始使用燃料油,但是,日本在石油制品方面的需求仍呈负增长,当年的需求量比起2001年又有减少,减幅达165千桶/天,这对整个亚太地区石油制品需求的增长都产生了负面影响。预计在2003年,日本石油消费市场的低迷形势将有所回升,届时其对石油制品的需求即便不会增长也将不至于继续下跌。这就使得在2003年,亚太地区对石油制品的消费需求可以有进一步增长,年增长率有望回复到相对“正常”的水平上(尽管该值仍低于常规水平),约可达到422千桶/天。从长期来说,中国和印度将成为亚太地区石油制品需求的主要增长国,在2002～2005年,2005～2010年和2010～2015年的三个时期中,他们的需求增长量将占到这一地区需求增长总量34%～37%的比例。与世界其它地区相比,过去的亚太石油消费市场对油价变动并不十分敏感,然而,现在的情况已经今非昔比。由于市场放开,这一地区的消费者远比在5至10年前更能切身的感受到油价变动所带来的影响。因此,正如人们所想象的那样,市场开放后,消费者也开始用行动来抵制高油价,即他们可