Thermal regime suitability: Assessment of upstream range restoration potential for Colorado pikeminnow,a warmwater endangered fish

Dams have reduced distribution of the endangered Colorado pikeminnow Ptychocheilus lucius in the upper Colorado River basin: low‐head diversion dams blocked upstream passage and large dams inundated free‐flowing segments and cooled downstream reaches with deep‐water releases. To date, range restoration efforts in the Colorado and Gunnison Rivers have focused on building fish ladders around diversion dams to allow recolonization of upstream reaches. Upstream thermal suitability for this warmwater cyprinid was assessed using temperature data and existing distributional information from river reaches where Colorado pikeminnow movements were unrestricted. Among‐site thermal regime comparisons were made using mean annual thermal units (ATU), derived from mean daily temperatures during 1986–2005 and the relation between temperature and Colorado pikeminnow growth. Upstream distributional limits in the Yampa and Gunnison Rivers occurred where in‐channel thermal regimes fell below a long‐term mean of 47–50 ATU, suggesting that two Colorado River fish ladders will make available an estimated 17 km of thermally suitable habitat. A Gunnison River fish ladder successfully re‐established access to 54 km of suitable habitat, but 32 km of critical habitat upstream remains unsuitable. Suitability there could be achieved by raising temperatures only 1–2°C from late May to mid‐October with installation of a temperature control device on an upstream dam. Maximum, main‐channel, summer temperatures did not limit Colorado pikeminnow distribution in downstream reaches of the upper Colorado River. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of Multi-year Droughts and Upstream Human-Induced Activities on the Development of a Semi-arid Transboundary Basin

This paper aims at investigating the combined impacts of basin-wide multi-year droughts and upstream human-induced activities on current and future potential development of a semi-arid transboundary basin. The approach is based on the drought analysis through three widely used drought indices (Standardised Drought Index- SPI, Reconnaissance Drought Index - RDI and Streamflow Drought Index- SDI), coupled with the current and future conceivable man-made changes upstream, taking also into account the effects of climate change. As a representative case, the Diyala river basin, shared between Iraq and Iran, is selected. A close examination of the climate trends in the study area exhibits that the basin points to be drier, with a decreasein precipitation and rise in the rates of temperature and potential evapotranspiration. The comparison between RDI and SDI indicates the cumulative drought effects on runoff during recent multi-year droughts episodes (1999–2001 and 2008–2009), which crippled the socio-economic activities and influenced the environmental system. Further, the results reveal that the combined impacts of multi-year droughts at basin scale and the river damming, water abstraction and water diversion works upstream have significant effects on water availability, especially at the middle and lower parts of the basin, with impacts on the security of the irrigated agriculture and public water supply, contributing to displacement and tribal conflicts. The projected climate change conditions along with the water withdrawal schemes upstream, which will put into operation in the foreseeable future, are expected to increase the vulnerability of water security in the portion of the basin that lies in the downstream country.     

A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions

In this study, a new method was proposed to model the occurrence of related variables based on the conditional density of copula functions. The proposed method was adopted to investigate the dynamics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Zarinehroud basin, southeast of Lake Urmia, during the period 1994–2015. For this purpose, the modified precipitation anomaly percentage and streamflow drought indices were extracted. Finally, the joint frequency analysis of duration-duration and severity-severity characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts was analyzed. Analysis of 7 different copulas used to create the joint distribution in the Zarinehroud basin indicated that the Frank copula had the best performance in describing the relationship between the meteorological and hydrological drought severities and durations. By examining the results of the bivariate analysis of duration-duration of meteorological and hydrological droughts at different stations, the expected meteorological and hydrological drought durations were estimated in the years ahead. For example, at Chalkhmaz station, 4- to 7-month duration for the hydrological drought and 9- to 12-month duration for the meteorological drought is expected in the years ahead. The joint frequency analysis of drought characteristics allows to determine the meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics at a single station at the same time using joint probabilities. Also, the results indicated that by knowing the conditional density, the hydrological drought characteristics can be easily estimated for the given meteorological drought characteristics. This could provide users and researchers useful information about the probabilistic behavior of drought characteristics for optimal operation of surface water.

     

黄河流域干旱时空演变的空间格局研究

干旱因子是突变性和连续性并存的复杂地理要素(即空间异质性和相似性并存),理清其空间分布格局,对于深入认识流域水资源演变规律具有重要意义。本文以黄河流域为例,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)分析流域干旱时空演变规律,基于此,运用游程理论方法从标准化降水指数中识别出干旱发生次数、历时和烈度三种属性变量,并分析季尺度干旱因子的空间分布规律;最后,利用全局和局部Moran’s I指数探究了不同特征变量的全局和局部空间自相关性,确立了流域季尺度干旱因子的空间聚集(离散)位置及其空间分布格局。结果表明:(1)黄河流域四季干旱化程度加剧,下游干旱化程度高于上游,随着季节的变化,同一响应单元存在由湿转干再转湿的变化规律;(2)不同季节,流域旱情空间分布格局差异明显,春季西安及周边区域存在区域性干旱现象(干旱次数少、历时长、烈度大);夏季黄河源区旱情严重(历时长、烈度大);秋季黄河下游三门峡、孟津和运城区域存在区域性干旱现象(干旱次数少、历时长、烈度大);冬季宁蒙河段旱情严重,而兰州断面干旱历时和干旱烈度呈现"低高异常"的空间分布格局,旱情可能会加剧。掌握旱情空间分布类型,重点布控"高高聚集"格局区域,可以有效提高旱灾决策的准确度。     

基于标准化降水蒸散指数的长江流域旱涝情势演变

基于长江流域133个气象站1970-2012年实测逐月降水量和月平均气温资料,计算不同时间尺度上的标准化降水蒸散指数序列,研究近几十年来长江流域旱涝情势的时空演变特征。结果表明,1970-2012年长江流域整体干旱形势不严重,但是干旱化的趋势比较明显。与长江上游地区相比,长江中下游区域的干旱趋势表现得更加突出,特别是长时间尺度上的干旱趋势非常明显。针对典型极端气象事件分析发现,标准化降水蒸散指数能够反映出不同时间尺度上长江流域发生的旱涝事件,表明该指数对于准确评估长江流域的旱涝程度和分布范围具有很好的指示性意义。     

Streamflow Drought Severity Analysis of Betwa River System (India)

Streamflow appraisal in time and space particularly in semi arid and dry sub humid regions has vital importance in the formulation of round the year plan of water uses comprising domestic & industrial water supply, irrigation scheduling, reservoir operation, in-stream flow maintenance etc. Drought severity analysis including the estimation of flow availability, drought duration, and deficit volume etc. was carried out using the 20–42 years (1960–2001) 10-daily streamflow data of five sites on the Betwa River system and. independent streamflow drought events were described by pooling the data, and severity of an independent drought event classified using a new drought severity index (DSIe) defined as a function of (1) the ratio of deficit flow volume to corresponding volume at the truncation level and (2) the ratio of duration of deficit flow to the maximum possible duration of the independent streamflow drought event. The study found that the upper reaches of river course were more prone to severe droughts than were the lower reaches. The drought events starting during August−November were more likely to be severe drought events than those in the other months.     

1975－2015年洪泽湖水沙变化趋势及成因分析

淮河流域洪涝灾害频繁,洪泽湖对其防洪除涝起关键性作用。掌握洪泽湖水沙变化趋势及突变点对流域水资源管理、水沙调节有重要的现实意义。利用入、出洪泽湖各支流代表水文站1975-2015年实测年径流量和年输沙量数据,分析入、出洪泽湖水量和沙量分布特征。通过Mann-Kendall(M-K)秩相关检验法和Pettitt突变点识别法研究入湖、出湖水沙量年际变化趋势和突变点。在此基础上,从流域降雨、水资源开发利用和水库滞沙三个方面分析了洪泽湖水沙变化的主要影响因素。研究表明:洪泽湖入湖、出湖水量年际变化趋势一致,无明显减小趋势,且无显著突变点。入湖沙量有小幅减小趋势,出湖沙量M-K统计值超过95%显著性水平,有明显减小趋势。入湖、出湖沙量发生突变的年份为1991年。对影响因素的分析得到:降雨量变化是水量变化的重要影响因素。1993-2015年,入湖水量呈不明显减小趋势则与流域用水量明显增加、水资源开发利用程度不断提高有关。上游水库建设是导致洪泽湖沙量有明显减小趋势的主要原因,1991年治淮工程的实施,水库复建和水土保持等措施是沙量突变的主要原因。     

Frequency and Spatial Characteristics of Droughts in the Conchos River Basin,Mexico

Abstract

The temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts are investigated to provide a framework for sustainable water resources management in a semi-arid region. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) as an indicator of drought severity, the characteristics of droughts are examined in the Conchos River Basin in Mexico. This basin is important to both the United States and Mexico, because the Conchos River supplies approximately 80 percent of the flows of the Lower Bravo/Grande River above the binational reservoirs of Amistad and Falcon. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the PDSI are used to develop a drought intensity—areal extent—frequency curve that can assess the severity of a regional drought in the basin. The analysis of the PDSI suggests that the Conchos River Basin had a severe drought in the 1990s, which the basin has not experienced before. Based on this analysis, the recent drought that occurred in the 1990s has an associated return period of about 80 to 100 years over the basin.     

Hydrological Drought Assessment in Northwestern Iran Based on Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)

Drought is a natural and worldwide phenomenon that occurs when water availability is significantly below normal levels during a significant period of time and cannot meet demand. This work focused on the hydrologic drought defined by the streamflow drought index (SDI) for overlapping periods of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months at 14 hydrometric stations in the northwest of Iran over the period 1975–2009. It was found that some of the streamflow volume series did not follow the normal distribution. The ability of the log-normal, exponential and uniform probability distributions was examined in order to choose the most suitable distribution, and the log-normal distribution was used to fit the long-term streamflow data. The results of the hydrological drought analysis based on the SDI showed that almost all the stations suffered from extreme droughts during the study period. Additionally, extreme droughts occurred most frequently in the last 12 years from 1997–1998 to 2008–2009.     

A review of the effects of pollution and water scarcity on the stream biota of an intermittent Mediterranean basin

This review presents the main results of a 10‐year research study conducted in a Mediterranean intermittent basin (Evrotas River). By assembling the main outcomes of past and ongoing research projects, this study provides an overview of multiple stressor effects, with emphasis on water scarcity, focusing on hydro‐biogeochemical processes, as well as on spatial and temporal variations in benthic macroinvertebrates and fish fauna. The major impact in the basin has been the over‐exploitation of surface and groundwater resources, which, in combination with droughts, has resulted in the recurrent artificial desiccation of large parts of the hydrological network. The response to intermittency of the macroinvertebrate fauna is characterized by high resilience through various drought‐resistant evolutionary mechanisms, with assemblages recovering successfully after recurrent droughts. However, when pollution is evident in combination with drought, effects on benthic species richness, abundance, and assemblage structure can be severe. Similarly, pollution and water stress may result in massive fish mortalities due to hypoxic conditions, with fish populations requiring long periods to recover. However, the fish fauna appears to be relatively resilient to drought‐driven reach‐scale desiccation, and ultimately recovers, provided that aquatic refugia are available to supply colonists and that there are no physical barriers impeding recolonisation. Appropriate conservation measures are urgently required to address the effects of recurrent bouts of water stress, as well as of other stressors on the freshwater communities of the Evrotas River, both at the level of water management and of water policy and at the local and the national level.     

Hydro-Climatological Drought Analyses and Projections Using Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Indices: A Case Study in Blue River Basin, Oklahoma

Understanding the characteristics of historical droughts will benefit water resource managers because it will reveal the possible impacts that future changes in climate may have on drought, and subsequently, the availability of water resources. The goal of this study was to reconstruct historical drought occurrences and assess future drought risk for the drought-prone Blue River Basin in Oklahoma, under a likely changing climate using three types of drought indices, i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). No similar research has been conducted in this region previously. Monthly precipitation and temperature data from the observational period 1950?C1999 and over the projection period 2010?C2099 from 16 statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) were used to compute the duration, severity, and extent of meteorological droughts. Additionally, soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), and runoff data from the well-calibrated Thornthwaite Monthly Water Balance Model were used to examine drought from a hydrological perspective. The results show that the three indices captured the historical droughts for the past 50?years and suggest that more severe droughts of wider extent are very likely to occur over the next 90?years in the Blue River Basin, especially in the later part of the 21st century. In fact, all three indices display lower minimum values than those ever recorded in the past 50?years. This study also found that SRI and SPI (PDSI) had a correlation coefficient of 0.81 (0.78) with a 2-month (no appreciable) lag time over the 1950?C2099 time period across the basin. There was relatively lower correlation between SPI and PDSI over the same period. Although this study recommends that PDSI and SRI are the most suitable indices for assessing future drought risks under an increasingly warmer climate, more drought indices from ecological and socioeconomic perspectives should be investigated and compared to provide a complete picture of drought and its potential impacts on the dynamically coupled nature-human system.     

Assessing Socioeconomic Drought Based on a Standardized Supply and Demand Water Index

Socioeconomic drought occurs when a water shortage is caused by an imbalance between the supply and demand of water resources in natural and human socioeconomic systems. Compared with meteorological drought, hydrological drought, and agricultural drought, socioeconomic drought has received relatively little attention. Hence, this study aims to construct a universal and relatively simple socioeconomic drought assessment index, the Standardized Supply and Demand Water Index (SSDWI). Taking the Jianjiang River Basin (JJRB) in Guangdong Province, China, as an example, we analyzed the socioeconomic drought characteristics and trends from 1985 to 2019. The return periods of different levels of drought were calculated. The relationships among socioeconomic, meteorological, and hydrological droughts and their potential drivers were discussed. Results showed that: (1) SSDWI can assess the socioeconomic drought conditions well at the basin scale. Based on the SSWDI, during the 35-year study period, 29 socioeconomic droughts occurred in the basin, with an average duration of 6.16 months and average severity of 5.82. Socioeconomic droughts mainly occurred in autumn and winter, which also had more severe droughts than other seasons. (2) In the JJRB, the joint return periods of “∪” and “∩” for moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 8.81a and 10.81a, 16.49a and 26.44a, and 41.68a and 91.13a, respectively. (3) Because of the increasing outflow from Gaozhou Reservoir, the occurrence probability of socioeconomic drought and hydrological drought in the JJRB has declined significantly since 2008. Reservoir scheduling helps alleviate hydrological and socioeconomic drought in the basin.

     

基于SWAT的北江流域蓝绿水评估及其干旱响应

为探究北江流域的水资源状况及其在不同程度干旱下的变化特征,利用SWAT模型模拟北江流域径流过程,并在此基础上评估北江流域的蓝绿水资源时空变化及其对干旱的响应特征.研究表明:北江流域水资源以蓝水为主,多年平均蓝水量为1149.08 mm,绿水量为981.08 mm,绿水系数为0.48;1966-2010年间,北江流域蓝绿...     

Environmental management in Urmia Lake: thresholds approach

Urmia Lake is a vivid example of negligence in providing the environmental water requirement rooted in prolonged droughts and excessive upstream water withdrawal. The aim of this study is to propose a reclamation strategy for the lake by focusing on estimation of environmental requirement thresholds under various drought severity conditions. On the average, the lake will remain in a moderate hydrological drought condition if the business-as-usual scenario prevails. The shares of natural drought, water withdrawals and water resources development projects (i.e. dams) in recent lake inflow reduction are estimated at 45%, 40% and 15%, respectively; thus, the aggregated contribution of human-induced factors has a more significant impact on the current lake condition than that of natural drought, and a firm and consistent approach to reduce water consumption by the agricultural sector is required for lake reclamation.     

Drought Analysis in the Awash River Basin,Ethiopia

This study analyzes drought characteristics in the Awash River Basin of Ethiopia based on meteorological and hydrological variables. Standardized precipitation index is used for temporal and spatial analyses of meteorological drought and the theory of runs is used to define hydrological drought by considering streamflow as the drought indicator. Drought severity maps are generated using Arc View/GIS by summarizing the percentage of occurrence of droughts in areas within the study basin. Extreme drought category on 12-month time scale indicated that extreme events occur most frequently in the Upper and Middle Awash Basin. However, while considering the overall categories of drought, the most frequent droughts occurred in the Middle and Lower Awash Basin during the period of analysis. Similarly, results based on hydrological drought analysis shows that the severest drought events occurred in the Middle Awash Basin during May 1988 to June 1988 and April 1998 to May 1998. Analysis of the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought indices in the basin shows that occurrence of hydrological drought event at Melka Sedi stream gauging station lags meteorological drought event in the Upper Awash on average by 7 months with a variation of 3 to 13 months.     

Long‐term (37 years) impacts of low‐head dams on freshwater shrimp habitat connectivity in northeastern Puerto Rico

Freshwater migratory shrimp in Puerto Rico depend on watershed connectivity, from stream headwaters to the ocean, to complete their life cycle. Moreover, shrimp populations in different watersheds are known to be connected in an island‐wide metapopulation. However, low‐head dams paired with water intakes on streams draining the El Yunque National Forest (EYNF) reduce streamflow. Here, we examine the cumulative effects of low‐head dams on shrimp habitat connectivity over 37 years across seven EYNF watersheds. We calculate total and refugia habitat connectivity (where refugia habitat is defined as predator‐free upstream reaches above waterfalls >5 m in height) at a monthly time step using a habitat‐weighted index of longitudinal riverine connectivity, which incorporates location and operation of water intakes and streamflow variability. Findings indicate total and refugia habitat connectivity declined over 37 years (by 27% and 16%, respectively) as additional water intakes have been placed in lower reaches of watersheds. On a monthly time step, the proportion of streamflow withdrawn has the largest effect on habitat connectivity, with the result that connectivity is ~17% lower during drought years than in nondrought years and ~7% lower in dry compared with wet seasons. Our analysis of this long‐term dataset highlights how cumulative effects of low‐head dams paired with water intakes have reduced shrimp habitat connectivity. These results underscore the importance of reducing existing withdrawal rates in EYNF, and locating intakes where effects on connectivity are minimal, if conserving shrimp habitat is a management objective.     

Future Hydrological Drought Analysis Considering Agricultural Water Withdrawal Under SSP Scenarios

Hydrological drought is assessed through river flow, which depends on river runoff and water withdrawal. This study proposed a framework to project future hydrological droughts considering agricultural water withdrawal (AWW) for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The relationship between AWW and potential evapotranspiration (PET) was determined using a deep belief network (DBN) model and then applied to estimate future AWW using projections of the twelve global climate models (GCMs). 12 GCMs were bias-corrected using the quantile mapping method, climate variables were generated, and river flow was estimated using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The standardized runoff index (SRI) was used to project the changes in hydrological drought characteristics. The results revealed a higher occurrence of severe droughts in the future. Droughts would be more frequent in the near future (2021–2060) than in the far future (2061–2100) and more severe when AWW is considered. Droughts would also be more severe for SSP5-8.5 than for SSP2-4.5. The study revealed that the increased PET due to rising temperatures is the primary cause of the increased drought frequency and severity. The AWW will accelerate the drought severities in the future in the Yeongsan River basin.

     

Drought variability and its connection with large-scale atmospheric circulations in Haihe River Basin

Drought is one of the most widespread and devastating extreme climate events when water availability is significantly below normal levels for a long period. In recent years, the Haihe River Basin has been threatened by intensified droughts. Therefore, characterization of droughts in the basin is of great importance for sustainable water resources management. In this study, two multi-scalar drought indices, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) with potential evapotranspiration calculated by the Penmane Monteith equation and the standardized precipitation index(SPI), were used to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of drought characteristics from 1961 to 2017 in the Haihe River Basin. In addition, the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns were used to further explore the potential links between drought trends and climatic anomalies. An increasing tendency in drought duration was detected over the Haihe River Basin with frequent drought events occurring in the period from 1997 to 2003. The results derived from both SPEI and SPI demonstrated that summer droughts were significantly intensified. The analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns indicated that the intensified summer droughts could be attributed to the positive geopotential height anomalies in Asian mid-high latitudes and the insufficient water vapor fluxes transported from the south.     

Comparative evaluation of impacts of climate change and droughts on river flow vulnerability in Iran

Rivers in arid and semi-arid regions are threatened by droughts and climate change. This study focused on a comparative evaluation of the impacts of climate change and droughts on the vulnerability of river flows in three basins with diverse climates in Iran. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and precipitation effectiveness variables (PEVs) extracted from the conjunctive precipitation effectiveness index (CPEI) were used to analyze the drought severity. To investigate hydrological droughts in the basins, the normalized difference water index (NDWI) and the streamflow drought index (SDI) were calculated and compared. The effects of droughts were assessed under various representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Changes in the number of wet days and precipitation depth restricted hydrological droughts, whereas an increasing number of dry days amplified their severity. The projected increases in dry days and precipitation over short durations throughout a year under future climate scenarios would produce changes in drought and flood periods and ultimately impact the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts. Under RCP 4.5, an increase in the frequencies of moderate and severe meteorological/hydrological droughts would further affect the Central Desert Basin. Under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, the frequencies of severe and extreme droughts would increase, but the drought area would be smaller than that under RCP 4.5, demonstrating less severe drought conditions. Due to the shallow depths of most rivers, SDI was found to be more feasible than NDWI in detecting hydrological droughts.