三维地下水流随机分析的配点法

本文提出了三维地下水不确定分析的随机配点法，比较了张量积配点法（Tensor Product Collocation Method, TPCM），Smolyak配点法 (Smolyak Collocation Method, SmCM)，Stroud-2配点法 (Stroud-2 Collocation Method, StCM)，以及概率配点法 (Probability Collocation Method, PCM)等四种配点法的基本原理；渗透系数场和水头场分别被表示为Karhunen-Loeve展开和多项式展开的形式；初始随机偏微分方程被转化为在相应配点上的确定性方程；建立了基于Modflow-2000的随机模型；讨论了不同算法的计算精度及计算成本。分析结果表明，配点法可充分继承现有模拟软件或代码的求解功能，配点的选取方法决定了其计算成本，SmCM具有最高的计算精度，但StCM具有最好的性价比。     

裂隙岩体渗流的光滑多尺度随机配点法

针对非均质裂隙岩体的随机渗流问题,提出光滑多尺度随机配点法。其基本思想是基于稀疏网格随机配点法将随机问题简化为相应配点处的非耦合确定性问题,利用有限全局信息构造多尺度基函数,捕捉材料的非均质性和流体流动的耦合关系,引入梯度光滑技术组装粗网格单元相关矩阵,将小尺度非均质信息体现到大尺度上,由此在粗网格上对问题进行求解。同传统多尺度随机配点法相比,光滑多尺度随机配点法在组装粗网格单元相关矩阵时将研究区域的内积分转化为边界积分,无需求解基函数的连续形式及导数,简化了程序,并且使有限元系统得到一定程度的"软化"。数值算例结果表明:光滑多尺度随机配点法比传统多尺度随机配点法具有更高的精度和效率。     

KL展开在渗流场随机分析中的初步应用

在水力特性参数空间变异性的影响下,渗流场具有一定程度的不确定性。分析了随机场KL展开的特点,阐述KLME渗流随机分析方法的基本原理,发现利用KL展开的均方收敛性和摄动方法的渐进收敛性,并将随机偏微分方程转化为递推的确定性偏微分方程组求解,提高了计算效率;对非饱和渗流场进行随机数值模拟,考虑了非饱和渗透函数的参数场之间不相关、正相关和负相关3种情形,分析表明参数场之间的互相关性对渗流场的统计特征具有较大影响。     

泥沙颗粒级配转换软件初步开发研究

泥沙颗粒分析作为水文测验项目,其资料对于水文泥沙分析计算和水利工程设计十分重要.对粒径计-吸管结合法(以下简称粒吸法)与激光法颗粒分析成果转换软件开发原则、思路、方法进行了探讨.提出了基于不同河段、不同悬移质颗粒级配建立标准样本库,进而进行级配转换的软件的开发模式.开发的转换软件具有准确性、通用性、操作简便、界面友好等特点,其转换结果能满足水利部行业标准的精度要求.     

结构可靠度分析的一种实用方法及其时变预测

一次二阶矩方法是传统的可靠度方法，其精度受到验算点处极限状态方程非线形程度影响，将功能函数泰勒展开至二次项，形成二次二阶矩方法可提高可靠度精度，考虑验算点法在计算时要求进行不断迭代，为此在满足设计精度要求的前提下，提出不需迭代的一次性设计点直接进行可靠度计算，从而大大减少计算工作量，对结构在整个使用期内可靠度风险性随机预测，基于灰色理论，建立GM优化模型，求出结构时变可靠度。     

一种改进SURF算法的无人机影像快速配准方法

无人机遥感系统应用领域较为广阔,为了解决无人机影像拼接过程中存在幅宽小、数量多、重叠度不规则等问题,研究提出一种以实际应用需要为导向的无人机遥感影像快速处理方法。在SURF(Speed Up Robust Feature)算法的基础上,先采用PROSAC(Progressive Sample Consensus)算法去除大量匹配点对提高遥感影像配准的精度,然后采用GPU(Graphic Processing Unit)并行运算提高改进SURF算法的计算速度,最后再使用PROSAC几何验证实现研究区影像精准拼接。结果表明:改进SURFGPU算法的准确率比SURF算法提高了7%,像元精度达到0.4个像元;改进的SURFGPU算法用于无人机遥感影像配准的运行时间比SURF算法约少16倍,计算时间达到毫秒级。改进SURF算法具有更好的匹配精度和更快的运行速度,能满足无人机遥感影像配准速度和精度的要求,尤其适用于应急救援等实时性要求较高的应用领域。     

筛分析与光电仪结合测定粉煤灰级配

 用筛分析与移液管分析相结合法测定宽粒径范围粉煤灰级配，需要花费较长的时间、较多的仪器才能完成，改用筛分析与光电颗分仪相结合法来测定其级配，能有效地节省测定时间，简化计算，保证精度要求，具有一定的实用价值。     

基于RF-GWO的水利工程地质渗透系数智能反演分析

地质渗透系数是准确分析水利工程渗流的关键参数。针对传统反演方法计算效率低、精度差的问题,采用有限元正演模型和正交试验设计构建渗透系数反演样本集,建立了基于随机森林(RF)算法的渗流计算代理模型;在此基础上,引入灰狼优化(GWO)算法,提出了基于RF-GWO的渗透系数智能反演方法,并以Z抽水蓄能电站为研究案例进行了验证。结果表明：RF模型对各钻孔水位预测结果均接近实测值,性能优于CART和BP模型;GWO可搜寻到地质最佳渗透系数,钻孔水位反演结果合理,相对误差最大为0.42%,精度满足工程要求,计算的天然渗流场分布形态也符合一般山体渗流场分布规律。建立的反演模型能够快速准确地推断工程区地层渗透系数,具有实际工程应用价值。     

计及不对称故障和重合闸操作的EEAC法直接暂态稳定分析

本文将EEAC法推广到计及不对称故障和重合闸操作的暂稳分析中。为修正计算转子角轨迹所引起的高阶截断误差，本文提出了多步Taylor展开计算的改进算法，该算法避免了计算现有EEAC法中的修正因子，适用于任意故障过程，并可提高EEAC暂稳分析的精度及可靠性。两个实际系统的仿真计算结果表明本文改进和推广的EEAC法具有良好的精度和实用前景。     

基于MCMC和ES-MDA方法的地下水数值模型非均 质参数场及开采量的反演研究

马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗方法(MCMC)和多重数据同化集合平滑器方法(ES-MDA)近年来在地下水参数反演得到广泛应用，但对三维多层非均质含水层参数反演精度和计算效率还缺乏对比分析。本文构建了含有基于Karhunen-Loève展开的非均质参数场的潜水和多层承压水含水层案例，并建立了地下水数值模型和基于Kriging方法的替代模型，模拟含水层分层水头变化，探讨了基于替代模型的MCMC、替代模型和数值模型相结合的两阶段MCMC以及ES-MDA方法反演的含水层渗透系数以及开采量。结果表明，针对本文算例，在非均质参数和开采量的反演中，相比而言，两阶段MCMC反演参数精度更高，ES-MDA方法计算效率更高。本研究为地下水数值模型参数反演方法选择提供参考依据。     

QUALIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTY FOR SIMULATING SOLUTE TRANSPORT IN THE HETEROGENEOUS MEDIA WITH SPARSE GRID COLLOCATION METHOD

The sparse grid collocation method is discussed to qualify the uncertainty of solute transport. The Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion is employed to decompose the log transformed hydraulic conductivity. The head, velocity and concentration fields are represented by the Lagrange polynomial expansion. A sparse grid collocation method is then used to reduce the original stochastic partial differential equations to a set of deterministic equations which is collocated at selected interpolation (collocation) points. The collocation points are constructed by the Smolyak algorithm. The accuracy, efficiency and convergence property of sparse grid collocation method are investigated by numerical experiments. The analysis shows that stochastic collocation strategy helps to decouple stochastic computations, and all the numerical computation is possible to be implemented by existing deterministic finite element codes. The proposed method provides an efficient way to evaluate the uncertainty of the solute transport in the heterogeneous media.     

A Novel Solution for Stochastic Dynamic Game of Water Allocation from a Reservoir Using Collocation Method

In this study, a continuous model of stochastic dynamic game for water allocation from a reservoir system was developed. The continuous random variable of inflow in the state transition function was replaced with a discrete approximant rather than using the mean of the random variable as is done in a continuous model of deterministic dynamic game. As a result, a new solution method was used to solve the stochastic model of game based on collocation method. The collocation method was introduced as an alternative to linear-quadratic (LQ) approximation methods to resolve a dynamic model of game. The collocation method is not limited to the first and second degree approximations, compared to LQ approximation, i.e. Ricatti equations. Furthermore, in spite of LQ related problems, consideration of the stochastic nature of game on the action variables in the collocation method would be possible. The proposed solution method was applied to the real case of reservoir operation, which typically requires considering the effect of uncertainty on decision variables. The results of the solution of the stochastic model of game are compared with the results of a deterministic solution of game, a classical stochastic dynamic programming model (e.g. Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model, BSDP), and a discrete stochastic dynamic game model (PSDNG). By comparing the results of alternative methods, it is shown that the proposed solution method of stochastic dynamic game is quite capable of providing appropriate reservoir operating policies.     

次降雨入渗补给系数空间变异性研究及模拟

本文分析了降雨不均匀入渗补给的产生机理,应用地质统计学方法研究了次降雨入渗补给系数的空间变异性,建立了协方差函数与方向角的函数关系;对次降雨入渗补给系数进行了KarhunenLoeve展开,通过求解特征值、特征函数及随机向量模拟次降雨入渗补给系数随机场。分析结果表明,在水平径流微弱、潜水面坡度小的地区,平稳场理论可以有效地描述次降雨入渗补给系数空间分布规律,KL展开法具有优越的收敛速度。     

基于van Genuchten-Mualem模型的饱和-非饱和介质流动随机数值分析

基于van Genuchten-Mualem非饱和水分特征模型，联合运用Karhunen-Loeve展开法、混沌多项式展开以及摄动方法，对饱和-非饱和流问题进行随机数值分析。将土壤特性参数假定为协方差已知的随机函数，并按Karhunen-Loeve法分解，把压力水头表示为多项式。通过摄动方法得到一系列关于水头展开式的偏微分方程，用有限差分法进行求解，获得了压力水头的随机描述，并计算其均值和方差。应用本文的随机模型研究了二维非饱和以及饱和-非饱和介质流动的实例，结果与动量方法的计算结果一致，而且计算效率高于传统的动量方法。     

STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF WATER FLOW IN HETEROGENEOUS MEDIA

A stochastic model for saturated-unsaturated flow is developed based on the combination of the KarhunenLoeve expansion of the input random soil properties with a perturbation method. The saturated hydraulic conductivity ks(x) is assumed to be log-normal random functions, expressed by f(x). f(x) is decomposed as infinite series in a set of orthogonal normal random variables by the Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion and the pressure head is expand as polynomial chaos with the same set of orthogonal random variables. With these expansions, the stochastic saturated-unsaturated flow equation and the corresponding initial and boundary conditions are represented by a series of deterministic partial differential equations which can be solved subsequently by a suitable numerical method. Some examples are given to show the reliability and efficiency of the proposed method.     

Stochastic simulation of fluid flow in porous media by the complex variable expression method

A stochastic simulation of fluid flow in porous media using a complex variable expression method (SFCM) is presented in this paper. Hydraulic conductivity is considered as a random variable and is then expressed in complex variable form, the real part of which is a deterministic value and the imaginary part is a variable value. The stochastic seepage flow is simulated with the SFCM and is compared with the results calculated with the Monte Carlo stochastic finite element method. In using the Monte Carlo method to simulate the stochastic seepage flow field, the hydraulic conductivity is assumed in three different probability distributions using random sampling method. The obtained seepage flow field is examined through skewness analysis, and the skewed distribution probability density function is given. The head mode value and the head comprehensive standard deviation are used to represent the statistics of calculation results obtained by the Monte Carlo method. The stochastic seepage flow field simulated by the SFCM is confirmed to be similar to that given by the Monte Carlo method from numerical aspects. The range of coefficient of variation of hydraulic conductivity in SFCM is larger than used previously in stochastic seepage flow field simulations, and the computation time is short. The results proved that the SFCM is a convenient calculating method for solving the complex problems.     

考虑介质随机性的结构-地基系统地震反应分析

本文结合近场波动数值模拟的解耦方法和随机有限元方法，提出了一种可考虑介质随机性的时域土-结构体系地震反应分析的解耦方法，此方法的给出为在场地及结构地震反应分析中考虑场地介质及结构参数的随机性的影响提供了较高精度且便于应用的理论方法。本文还以小湾拱坝为例分析了考虑介质随机性时结构的地震反应。     

基于随机力学理论的堤防安全分析方法综述

近年来,基于随机力学理论的堤防安全分析方法已经得到了深入的研究和广泛的应用,但是目前仍然缺少对该方法系统性的总结说明。为对基于随机力学理论的堤防安全分析方法的主要内容及工程应用进行综述,介绍了3种堤防典型失事模式,分析了堤防安全分析中应该考虑的风险因素,并系统整理了风险因素的不确定性和相关性;总结了基于随机力学理论的各种常用的堤防安全分析方法,详述了其在3种堤防典型失事模式中的应用及适用性,重点阐述了基于随机场理论与考虑风险因素互相关性的堤防安全分析方法研究。基于随机力学理论的堤防安全分析方法的主要发展方向是开展基于随机场的有限元法研究,及风险因素间互相关性研究。