我国建筑行业温室气体减排机会分析

我国建筑行业温室气体排放总量大且增长快,建筑建造和运行阶段是建筑行业减排的重点环节。本文分析了建筑行业二氧化碳排放的影响因素,从技术进步、能源结构优化、建设模式转变三方面识别了我国建筑行业的十大减排机会,并对每个减排机会进行了具体分析,为建筑行业碳减排提出了建议。     

交通运输业温室气体排放现状及减排对策

交通运输业排放的CO2在发达国家占CO2排放总量的20％-30％,在我国约8％。近年来,交通运输业成为全球和我国温室气体排放增长最快的部门之一,只有综合运用技术和管理措施,才能有效减少交通行业温室气体排放,实现交通运输业的可持续发展。     

广东省温室气体减排潜力分析与预测

从《联合国气候变化框架公约》的机制与原理出发,对广东省主要温室气体（GHG）排放部门的现状进行了系统分析,并对广东省未来温室气体的排放进行了预测;提出了利用清洁发展机制（CDM）来开展广东省减排温室气体项目的方向,为广东省开展节能环保型项目提供了参考建议。     

辽宁省温室气体排放现状及减排措施分析

辽宁省是东北老工业基地,历史的原因形成了设备陈旧、技术落后、能源消耗大,CO2排放量多,其减排任务十分艰巨.据辽宁各市排放清单数据,2004年全省温室气体排放总量为3.47亿t CO2当量,其中电力、水泥和钢铁行业CO2的排放量为2.18亿t CO2当量,占全省总排放量的62.77%,成为减排的重点.提出了在电力行业发展风电和核电等新能源、开发热电联产和引进清洁煤发电技术;在水泥行业推广使用替代燃料、替代原料和余热利用技术;在钢铁行业坚决淘汰高能耗、高物耗、高污染的落后工艺,实现国家颁布的清洁生产技术等减排措施.通过与发达国家的CDM项目合作,获得出售CER所带来的经济效益.     

论温室气体减排法律机制

气候变化是当前人类面临的严重的全球性环境问题,温室气体排放是引起全球气候变化的一个重要原因。介绍了《京都议定书》为发达国家实现温室气体减排目标提供的低成本的替代性法律机制,指出了这些机制存在的不足之处．为在2012年之后的后京都时代进一步完善温室气体减排法律机制提出了建议。     

温室气体减排和利用进展

2005年2月16日生效的《京都议定书》，要求相关签约成员减少温室气体排放，进而防止全球气候变暖。     

船舶温室气体减排对主机的影响分析

介绍了航运业温室气体排放现状,以及针对脱碳目标的主要减排措施:技术性减排措施、营运性减排措施及基于市场的减排措施。分析了以上各类减排措施对船舶主机的影响。在综合分析IMO船舶温室气体减排法规及相关减排技术对我国船舶主机、相关零部件技术发展,供应链建设以及复合型人才培养等方面的影响的基础上提出了发展建议。     

中国温室气体减排前景不容乐观

中国是引起全球变暖的有毒气体的最大排放国。但其努力削减排放量的工作“不容乐观”。北京1个月前曾发出类似的警告。     

华东地区工业能耗及其温室气体排放与减排

根据ＩＰＣＣＧｕｉｄｅｌｉｎｅｓ（１９９５）提供的方法，对１９９０年江浙沪地区工业部门能源消耗量及其温室气体的排放进行了统计计算，对数据进行了进一步的评价和分析，江浙沪地区工业部门燃料消耗中固体燃料占８１．９％；液体燃料占１５．３％；气体燃料占２．８％，该地区工业部门燃料消耗中温室气体排放为：ＣＯ２：１１７６３８．１Ｇｇ；ＣＨ４：２．７９９Ｇｇ；Ｎ２Ｏ：９．３２６Ｇｇ。针对工业部门的具体情况提出了相应的减排措施。     

“2050年温室气体减半”全球长期减排目标简析

温室气体减排长期目标和减排义务的分担是气候变化国际谈判的焦点问题,也是未来可能达成一致的任何国际气候制度中不可或缺的核心内容。本文结合当前谈判最新进展,研究提出"2050年全球减半"的长期目标发达国家减排的情景,并分析了上述情景下2050年的排放空间等。     

Role of natural gas in meeting an electric sector emissions reduction strategy and effects on greenhouse gas emissions

With advances in natural gas extraction technologies, there is an increase in the availability of domestic natural gas, and natural gas is gaining a larger share of use as a fuel in electricity production. At the power plant, natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel than coal, but uncertainties exist in the amount of methane leakage occurring upstream in the extraction and production of natural gas. At higher leakage levels, the additional methane emissions could offset the carbon dioxide emissions reduction benefit of switching from coal to natural gas. This analysis uses the MARKAL linear optimization model to compare the carbon emissions profiles and system-wide global warming potential of the U.S. energy system over a series of model runs in which the power sector is required to meet a specific carbon dioxide reduction target across a number of scenarios in which the availability of natural gas changes. Scenarios are run with carbon dioxide emissions and a range of upstream methane emission leakage rates from natural gas production along with upstream methane and carbon dioxide emissions associated with production of coal and oil. While the system carbon dioxide emissions are reduced in most scenarios, total carbon dioxide equivalent emissions show an increase in scenarios in which natural gas prices remain low and, simultaneously, methane emissions from natural gas production are higher.     

辽宁省可再生能源温室气体减排潜力分析

分析了人类活动排放过多温室气体对全球气候造成的影响.阐述了辽宁省可再生能源领域中太阳能、风能、生物质能及水能的发展现状;展望了辽宁省可再生能源的发展前景.通过对辽宁省可再生能源领域的温室气体减排潜力的分析,提出了风力发电和太阳能利用是辽宁省可再生能源优先发展领域.     

Modeling California policy impacts on greenhouse gas emissions

This paper examines policy and technology scenarios in California, emphasizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030. Using CALGAPS, a new, validated model simulating GHG and criteria pollutant emissions in California from 2010 to 2050, four scenarios were developed: Committed Policies (S1), Uncommitted Policies (S2), Potential Policy and Technology Futures (S3), and Counterfactual (S0), which omits all GHG policies. Forty-nine individual policies were represented. For S1–S3, GHG emissions fall below the AB 32 policy 2020 target [427 million metric tons CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e) yr⁻¹], indicating that committed policies may be sufficient to meet mandated reductions. In 2030, emissions span 211–428 MtCO₂e yr⁻¹, suggesting that policy choices made today can strongly affect outcomes over the next two decades. Long-term (2050) emissions were all well above the target set by Executive Order S-3-05 (85 MtCO₂e yr⁻¹); additional policies or technology development (beyond the study scope) are likely needed to achieve this objective. Cumulative emissions suggest a different outcome, however: due to early emissions reductions, S3 achieves lower cumulative emissions in 2050 than a pathway that linearly reduces emissions between 2020 and 2050 policy targets. Sensitivity analysis provided quantification of individual policy GHG emissions reduction benefits.     

园林绿化废弃物资源化利用项目温室气体减排核算方法研究

研究构建了园林绿化废弃物生产有机肥替代化肥方法学,并以北京某园林绿化废弃物资源化利用项目为案例进行实证研究。结果表明,基准线情景总排放为6 707.09 tCO2e,年均排放为958.15 tCO_2e,园林废弃物腐烂是基准线情景温室气体排放的最主要来源(占60.36%)。项目活动总排放为5 469.81 tCO_2e,年均排放为781.40 tCO_2e,电力消耗是项目活动温室气体排放的最主要来源(88.71%)。项目能够实现较为显著的减排效果,计入期内总减排量为1 237.28 tCO_2e,年均减排量为176.75 tCO_2e。目前,北京市园林绿化废弃物资源化利用规模小,如果能推广此类项目,将产生十分可观的减排潜力。     

The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emissions reduction: The case of Finland

This paper presents results from a total of 27 projects from the Finnish CLIMTECH technology program. These were used to investigate the prospects of greenhouse gas-mitigation technologies under Finnish conditions, including all emissions sources and all Kyoto gases. The estimated impacts of climate change on the energy system were also taken into account in the analysis. Systematic investments in technology development were found to yield substantial benefits in the long term by decreasing emissions reduction costs and by facilitating more ambitious reduction targets. Advanced biofuel production and utilization technologies, as well as offshore wind power, have proved to have the largest potential by the 2030s. Results also indicated a clear relationship between technological development and national emissions-trading patterns.     

A comparison of avoided greenhouse gas emissions when using different kinds of wood energy

In this study, micro-level data from wood energy producers in Hedmark County were gathered and analysed. The aim was to find how much greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions various kinds of wood energy cause (not only CO₂, but also CH₄ and N₂O), which energy they substitute, their potential to reduce GHG emissions, and the major sources of uncertainty. The method was life cycle assessment. Six types of wood energy were studied: fuel wood, sawdust, pellets, briquettes, demolition wood, and bark.GHG emissions over the life cycle of the wood energy types in this study are 2–19% of the emissions from a comparable source of energy. The lowest figure is for demolition wood substituting oil in large combustion facilities, the highest for fuel wood used in dwellings to substitute electricity produced by coal-based power plants.Avoided GHG emissions per m³ wood used for energy were from 0.210 to 0.640 tonne CO₂-equivalents. Related to GWh energy produced, avoided GHG emissions were from 250 to 360 tonne CO₂-equivalents. Avoided GHG emissions per tonne CO₂ in the wood are 0.28–0.70 tonne CO₂-equivalents. The most important factors were technology used for combustion, which energy that is substituted, densities, and heating values. Inputs concerning harvest, transport, and production of the wood energy are not important.Overall, taking the uncertainties into account there is not much difference in avoided GHG emissions for the different kinds of wood energy.     

Structural decomposition analysis of Australia's greenhouse gas emissions

A complex system of production links our greenhouse gas emissions to our consumer demands. Whilst progress may be made in improving efficiency, other changes in the production structure may easily annul global improvements. Utilising a structural decomposition analysis, a comparative-static technique of input–output analysis, over a time period of around 30 years, net greenhouse emissions are decomposed in this study into the effects, due to changes in industrial efficiency, forward linkages, inter-industry structure, backward linkages, type of final demand, cause of final demand, population affluence, population size, and mix and level of exports.Historically, significant competing forces at both the whole of economy and industrial scale have been mitigating potential improvements. Key sectors and structural influences are identified that have historically shown the greatest potential for change, and would likely have the greatest net impact. Results clearly reinforce that the current dichotomy of growth and exports are the key problems in need of address.     

Diversification in the driveway: mean-variance optimization for greenhouse gas emissions reduction from the next generation of vehicles

Modern portfolio theory is applied to the problem of selecting which vehicle technologies and fuels to use in the next generation of vehicles. Selecting vehicles with the lowest lifetime cost is complicated by the fact that future prices are uncertain, just as selecting securities for an investment portfolio is complicated by the fact that future returns are uncertain. A quadratic program is developed based on modern portfolio theory, with the objective of minimizing the expected lifetime cost of the “vehicle portfolio”. Constraints limit greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the variance of the cost. A case study is performed for light-duty passenger vehicles in the United States, drawing emissions and usage data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's MOVES and Department of Energy's GREET models, among other sources. Four vehicle technologies are considered: conventional gasoline, conventional diesel, grid-independent (non-plug-in) gasoline-electric hybrid, and flex fuel using E85. Results indicate that much of the uncertainty surrounding cost stems from fuel price fluctuations, and that fuel efficient vehicles can lower cost variance. Hybrids exhibit the lowest cost variances of the technologies considered, making them an arguably financially conservative choice.     

Economic analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in the Spanish economy

The volume of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) to the atmosphere generated by Spain's economic activity is calculated by applying an Input–Output model. The research takes the Social Accounting Matrices for Spain over the years 2002–2007 (SAMESP) as a starting point, from which emission vectors are obtained for each of these years. The results show that the main sectors by volume of emissions are “Electric power and heating”, “Transport”, and “Agriculture, Stockbreeding, Forestry and Fishing”. The values of the emissions calculated with the vectors obtained from SAMESP are very similar to those of the emissions finally registered. Emission vector values diminished in most sectors during the period considered, particularly with respect to the “Electric power and heating” sector in the case of carbon dioxide production. The “Agriculture, Stockbreeding, Forestry and Fishing” sector was an exception to the fact because a trend for decreased emission was not recorded for any of the gases. From the calculated vectors, we estimate that the 20% reduction of GHG emissions required of countries in the EU-27 by 2020 will be accomplished by reducing carbon dioxide emissions, even though emissions of methane and nitrous oxide are likely to increase.     

Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

Urban form – for example, sprawl versus infill development – impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000–2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO₂e (15–20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth).