一种新的面向对象的概率图模型

针对大规模Bayes网络的知识表示和推理等问题,使用面向对象的方法扩展Bayes网络结构,提出了一种新的概率图模型——对象概率模型（OPM）．该模型充分利用层次结构中所蕴含的条件独立性,有效地降低了知识表示的复杂度．在Bayes网络消元推理算法的基础上设计了OPM的一种有效的推理算法,该算法可以根据需要调节推理的计算量,在一定程度上解决了概率推理的计算的复杂度问题．将OPM用于解决图像中文本的自动检测与定位问题,实验结果验证了模型的有效性．     

An Introduction to Variational Methods for Graphical Models

This paper presents a tutorial introduction to the use of variational methods for inference and learning in graphical models (Bayesian networks and Markov random fields). We present a number of examples of graphical models, including the QMR-DT database, the sigmoid belief network, the Boltzmann machine, and several variants of hidden Markov models, in which it is infeasible to run exact inference algorithms. We then introduce variational methods, which exploit laws of large numbers to transform the original graphical model into a simplified graphical model in which inference is efficient. Inference in the simpified model provides bounds on probabilities of interest in the original model. We describe a general framework for generating variational transformations based on convex duality. Finally we return to the examples and demonstrate how variational algorithms can be formulated in each case.     

Distributed Bayesian diagnosis for modular assembly systems—A case study

The growing interest in modular and distributed approaches for the design and control of intelligent manufacturing systems gives rise to new challenges. One of the major challenges that have not yet been well addressed is monitoring and diagnosis in distributed manufacturing systems. In this paper we propose the use of a multi-agent Bayesian framework known as Multiply Sectioned Bayesian Networks (MSBNs) as the basis for multi-agent distributed diagnosis in modular assembly systems. We use a close-to-industry case study to demonstrate how MSBNs can be used to build component-based Bayesian sub-models, how to verify the resultant models, and how to compile the multi-agent models into runtime structures to allow consistent multi-agent belief update and inference.     

Bayesian Networks for Data Mining

A Bayesian network is a graphical model that encodesprobabilistic relationships among variables of interest. When used inconjunction with statistical techniques, the graphical model hasseveral advantages for data modeling. One, because the model encodesdependencies among all variables, it readily handles situations wheresome data entries are missing. Two, a Bayesian network can be used tolearn causal relationships, and hence can be used to gain understanding about a problem domain and to predict the consequencesof intervention. Three, because the model has both a causal andprobabilistic semantics, it is an ideal representation for combiningprior knowledge (which often comes in causal form) and data. Four,Bayesian statistical methods in conjunction with Bayesian networksoffer an efficient and principled approach for avoiding theoverfitting of data. In this paper, we discuss methods for constructing Bayesian networks from prior knowledge and summarizeBayesian statistical methods for using data to improve these models.With regard to the latter task, we describe methods for learning boththe parameters and structure of a Bayesian network, includingtechniques for learning with incomplete data. In addition, we relateBayesian-network methods for learning to techniques for supervised andunsupervised learning. We illustrate the graphical-modeling approachusing a real-world case study.     

基于关联规则的ABN分类器构造

Naive Bayes分类建立在贝叶斯理论基础上,应用极为广泛,它采用类条件独立假设对贝叶斯理论进行了近似。Bayesian Network则在这一基础上采用图形模型弥补了独立假设的不足,同时揭示出分类过程中会导致NP问题的出现。本文采用一种折衷的方法--联合关联规则与ABN分类技术构造贝叶斯分类器。它弥补了独立假设的不足,同时也避免了解决NP问题。最后,本文用实验结果展示它在多个领域远远优于Naive Bayes分类器。     

多模块贝叶斯网络中推理的简化

多模块贝叶斯网络(MSBN)引入了模块化和面向对象思想，是复杂大系统建模的有力工具．目前，如何简化MSBN中局部和全局推理的时空复杂度已成为影响其应用的关键问题．首先分析了用于局部贝叶斯网络推理的两类经典算法的时空复杂度，证明了它们本质上的一致性，并给出了统一的理论解释；进而用实验证明了影响推理复杂度的决定性因素是网络模型相应导出图的导出宽度，并指出了可以精确推理的贝叶斯网络族．最后，分析了降低MSBN全局推理复杂度的可行性，给出了简化MSBN全局推理的指导性原则．     

Distributed parallel compilation of MSBNs

Multiply sectioned Bayesian networks (MSBNs) support multiagent probabilistic inference in distributed large problem domains. Inference with MSBNs can be performed using their compiled representations. The compilation involves moralization and triangulation of a set of local graphical structures. Privacy of agents may prevent us from compiling MSBNs at a central location. In earlier work, agents performed compilation sequentially via a depth‐first traversal of the hypertree that organizes local subnets, where communication failure between any two agents would crush the whole work. In this paper, we present an asynchronous compilation method by which multiple agents compile MSBNs in full parallel. Compared with the traversal compilation, the asynchronous one is robust, self‐adaptive, and fault‐tolerant. Experiments show that both methods provide similar quality compilation to simple MSBNs, but the asynchronous one provides much higher quality compilation to complex MSBNs. Empirical study also indicates that the asynchronous one is consistently faster than the traversal one. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

复杂系统的图模型多智能体协同故障诊断

为解决复杂、不确定系统的故障诊断实时推理问题,提出了基于图模型-多连片贝叶斯网络架构下多智能体协同推理的故障诊断方法。该方法将一个复杂贝叶斯网分割成若干有重叠的贝叶斯子网,使监控网络的单个智能体被抽象为一个拥有局部知识的贝叶斯网,利用成熟的贝叶斯网推理算法可完成智能体的自主推理。随后,通过重叠的子网接口进行多智能体间消息的传播,实现了多智能体协同故障诊断推理。实验结果表明了基于图模型多智能体的协同故障诊断方法的正确性和有效性。     

基于改进贝叶斯方法的轨迹预测算法研究

针对传统轨迹预测方法在历史轨迹数目有限时,预测准确度较低的问题,提出一种改进的贝叶斯推理(MBI)方法,MBI构建了马尔可夫模型来量化相邻位置的相关性,并通过对历史轨迹进行分解来获得更准确的马尔可夫模型,最后得到改进的贝叶斯推理公式。实验结果表明,MBI方法比现有方法的预测速度快2到3倍,并且有较高的准确度和稳定性。MBI方法充分利用现有轨迹信息,不仅提高了查询效率,还保证了较高的预测精度。     

一般贝叶斯网络分类器及其学习算法

贝叶斯网络（BN）应用于分类应用时对目标变量预测有直接贡献的局部模型称作一般贝叶斯网络分类器（GBNC）。推导GBNC的传统途径是先学习完整的BN,而现有推导BN结构的算法限制了应用规模。为了避免学习全局BN,提出仅执行局部搜索的结构学习算法IPC-GBNC,它以目标变量节点为中心执行广度优先搜索,且将搜索深度控制在不超过2层。理论上可证明算法IPC-GBNC是正确的,而基于仿真和真实数据的实验进一步验证了其学习效果和效率的优势：（1）可输出和执行全局搜索的PC算法相同甚至更高质量的结构;（2）较全局搜索消耗少得多的计算量;（3）同时实现了降维（类似决策树学习算法）。相比于绝大多数经典分类器,GBNC的分类性能相当,但兼具直观、紧凑表达和强大推理的能力（且支持不完整观测值）。     

Graphical model construction based on evolutionary algorithms

1 Introduction Evolutionary algorithms(EAs) [1～5] are stochastic search and optimization techniques, which were inspired by the analogy of evolution and population genetics. They have been demonstrated to be effective and robust in searching very large, varied, spaces in a wide range of applications, including classification, machine learning, ecological, so- cial systems and so on. However, most of the common evo- lutionary algorithms using simple operators are incapable of learning the reg…     

Graphical model construction based on evolutionary algorithms

Using Bayesian networks to model promising solutions from the current population of the evolutionary algorithms can ensure efficiency and intelligence search for the optimum. However, to construct a Bayesian network that fits a given dataset is a NP-hard problem, and it also needs consuming mass computational resources. This paper develops a methodology for constructing a graphical model based on Bayesian Dirichlet metric. Our approach is derived from a set of propositions and theorems by researching the local metric relationship of networks matching dataset. This paper presents the algorithm to construct a tree model from a set of potential solutions using above approach. This method is important not only for evolutionary algorithms based on graphical models, but also for machine learning and data mining. The experimental results show that the exact theoretical results and the approximations match very well.     

可能网络结构学习的依赖分析方法研究

贝叶斯网络是概率理论与图形模式的结合,被广泛用于不确定性问题求解,但不具有处理不准确性信息的能力。可能网络是可能理论、概率理论与图形模式的结合,可弥补贝叶斯网络这方面的不足。首先介绍关于可能网络的一些概念,并与贝叶斯网进行比较,然后给出一种基于依赖分析的可能网络结构学习方法。     

Exploring Latent Semantic Information for Textual Emotion Recognition in Blog Articles

Understanding people's emotions through natural language is a challenging task for intelligent systems based on Internet of Things (IoT). The major difficulty is caused by the lack of basic knowledge in emotion expressions with respect to a variety of real world contexts. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian inference method to explore the latent semantic dimensions as contextual information in natural language and to learn the knowledge of emotion expressions based on these semantic dimensions. Our method synchronously infers the latent semantic dimensions as topics in words and predicts the emotion labels in both word-level and document-level texts. The Bayesian inference results enable us to visualize the connection between words and emotions with respect to different semantic dimensions. And by further incorporating a corpus-level hierarchy in the document emotion distribution assumption, we could balance the document emotion recognition results and achieve even better word and document emotion predictions. Our experiment of the wordlevel and the document-level emotion predictions, based on a well-developed Chinese emotion corpus Ren-CECps, renders both higher accuracy and better robustness in the word-level and the document-level emotion predictions compared to the state-of-theart emotion prediction algorithms.      

离散动态贝叶斯网络的进化粒子滤波推理算法

粒子滤波(PF)是动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)的一种近似推理算法,虽然重抽样过程的引入能有效减轻PF的退化现象,却带来了采样枯竭问题,导致推理精度下降.提出一种进化粒子滤波(EPF)推理算法,把离散粒子群优化(DPSO)技术引入到传统PF中,利用DPSO的迭代寻优能力重新分配粒子,使粒子的表示更加接近真实后验概率密度,以提高PF的推理精度.在离散DBN上的概率推理实验结果表明了EPF算法的有效性.     

Approximate inference for dynamic Bayesian networks: sliding window approach

Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are probabilistic graphical models that have become a ubiquitous tool for compactly describing statistical relationships among a group of stochastic processes. A suite of elaborately designed inference algorithms makes it possible for intelligent systems to use a DBN to make inferences in uncertain conditions. Unfortunately, exact inference or even approximation in a DBN has been proved to be NP-hard and is generally computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we investigate a sliding window framework for approximate inference in DBNs to reduce the computational burden. By introducing a sliding window that moves forward as time progresses, inference at any time is restricted to a quite narrow region of the network. The main contributions to the sliding window framework include an exploration of its foundations, explication of how it operates, and the proposal of two strategies for adaptive window size selection. To make this framework available as an inference engine, the interface algorithm widely used in exact inference is then integrated with the framework for approximate inference in DBNs. After analyzing its computational complexity, further empirical work is presented to demonstrate the validity of the proposed algorithms.     

STATISTICAL INFERENCES BASED ON A SECOND-ORDER POSSIBILITY DISTRIBUTION

Abstract

A new, general method of statistical inference is proposed. It encompasses all the coherent forms of statistical inference that can be derived from a Bayesian prior distribution, Bayesian sensitivity analysis or upper and lower prior probabilities. The method is to model prior uncertainty about statistical parameters in terms of a second-order possibility distribution (a special type of upper probability) which measures the plausibility of each conceivable prior probability distribution. This defines an imprecise hierarchical model. Two,applications are studied: the problem of robustifying Bayesian analyses by forming a neighbourhood of a Bayesian prior distribution, and the problem of combining prior opinions from different sources.     

基于贝叶斯网络的结构化文档检索模型

研究表明合理考虑术语之间的关系可以提高检索系统的性能。采用共现分析的方法从文档集合中学习得到术语之间的关系,并应用到结构化文档检索中,提出了一个基于贝叶斯网络的结构化文档检索模型,给出了其拓扑结构、概率估计以及推理过程。实验表明该模型的检索性能要优于没有考虑术语之间关系的模型。