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1.
Increasing concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States have spurred interest in alternate low carbon fuel sources, such as natural gas. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methods can be used to estimate potential emissions reductions through the use of such fuels. Some recent policies have used the results of LCAs to encourage the use of low carbon fuels to meet future energy demands in the U.S., without, however, acknowledging and addressing the uncertainty and variability prevalent in LCA. Natural gas is a particularly interesting fuel since it can be used to meet various energy demands, for example, as a transportation fuel or in power generation. Estimating the magnitudes and likelihoods of achieving emissions reductions from competing end-uses of natural gas using LCA offers one way to examine optimal strategies of natural gas resource allocation, given that its availability is likely to be limited in the future. In this study, the uncertainty in life cycle GHG emissions of natural gas (domestic and imported) consumed in the U.S. was estimated using probabilistic modeling methods. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain sample distributions representing life cycle GHG emissions from the use of 1 MJ of domestic natural gas and imported LNG. Life cycle GHG emissions per energy unit of average natural gas consumed in the U.S were found to range between -8 and 9% of the mean value of 66 g CO(2)e/MJ. The probabilities of achieving emissions reductions by using natural gas for transportation and power generation, as a substitute for incumbent fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and coal were estimated. The use of natural gas for power generation instead of coal was found to have the highest and most likely emissions reductions (almost a 100% probability of achieving reductions of 60 g CO(2)e/MJ of natural gas used), while there is a 10-35% probability of the emissions from natural gas being higher than the incumbent if it were used as a transportation fuel. This likelihood of an increase in GHG emissions is indicative of the potential failure of a climate policy targeting reductions in GHG emissions.  相似文献   

2.
Beginning with model year 2012, light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. are subject to new rules that regulate tailpipe greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions based on grams of CO(2)-equivalent per mile (gCO(2)e/mi). However, improvements in vehicle technology, lower-carbon fuels, and improvements in GHG accounting practices which account for distortions related to emissions timing all contribute to shifting a greater portion of life cycle emissions away from the vehicle use phase and toward the vehicle production phase. This article proposes methods for calculating time-corrected life cycle emissions intensity on a gCO(2)e/mi basis and explores whether regulating only tailpipe CO(2) could lead to an undesirable regulatory outcome, where technologies and vehicle architectures with higher life cycle GHGs are favored over technologies with lower life cycle emissions but with higher tailpipe GHG emissions. Two life cycle GHG assessments for future vehicles are presented in addition to time correction factors for production and end-of-life GHG emissions. Results demonstrate that, based on the vehicle designs considered here, there is a potential for favoring vehicles with higher life cycle emissions if only tailpipe emissions are regulated; moreover, the application of time correction factors amplifies the importance of production emissions and the potential for a perverse outcome.  相似文献   

3.
The presence of variability in life cycle analysis (LCA) is inherent due to both inexact LCA procedures and variation of numerical inputs. Variability in LCA needs to be clearly distinguished from uncertainty. This paper uses specific examples from the production of diesel and jet fuels from 14 different feedstocks to demonstrate general trends in the types and magnitudes of variability present in life cycle greenhouse gas (LC-GHG) inventories of middle distillate fuels. Sources of variability have been categorized as pathway specific, coproduct usage and allocation, and land use change. The results of this research demonstrate that subjective choices such as coproduct usage and allocation methodology can be more important sources of variability in the LC-GHG inventory of a fuel option than the process and energy use of fuel production. Through the application of a consistent analysis methodology across all fuel options, the influence of these subjective biases is minimized, and the LC-GHG inventories for each feedstock-to-fuel option can be effectively compared and discussed. By considering the types and magnitudes of variability across multiple fuel pathways, it is evident that LCA results should be presented as a range instead of a point value. The policy implications of this are discussed.  相似文献   

4.
Because of interest in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation fuels production, a number of recent life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have calculated GHG emissions from oil sands extraction, upgrading, and refining pathways. The results from these studies vary considerably. This paper reviews factors affecting energy consumption and GHG emissions from oil sands extraction. It then uses publicly available data to analyze the assumptions made in the LCA models to better understand the causes of variability in emissions estimates. It is found that the variation in oil sands GHG estimates is due to a variety of causes. In approximate order of importance, these are scope of modeling and choice of projects analyzed (e.g., specific projects vs industry averages); differences in assumed energy intensities of extraction and upgrading; differences in the fuel mix assumptions; treatment of secondary noncombustion emissions sources, such as venting, flaring, and fugitive emissions; and treatment of ecological emissions sources, such as land-use change-associated emissions. The GHGenius model is recommended as the LCA model that is most congruent with reported industry average data. GHGenius also has the most comprehensive system boundaries. Last, remaining uncertainties and future research needs are discussed.  相似文献   

5.
6.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which use electricity from the grid to power a portion of travel, could play a role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector. However, meaningful GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs are conditional on low-carbon electricity sources. We assess life cycle GHG emissions from PHEVs and find that they reduce GHG emissions by 32% compared to conventional vehicles, but have small reductions compared to traditional hybrids. Batteries are an important component of PHEVs, and GHGs associated with lithium-ion battery materials and production account for 2-5% of life cycle emissions from PHEVs. We consider cellulosic ethanol use and various carbon intensities of electricity. The reduced liquid fuel requirements of PHEVs could leverage limited cellulosic ethanol resources. Electricity generation infrastructure is long-lived, and technology decisions within the next decade about electricity supplies in the power sector will affectthe potential for large GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs for several decades.  相似文献   

7.
Ethanol can be produced via an intracellular photosynthetic process in cyanobacteria (blue-green algae), excreted through the cell walls, collected from closed photobioreactors as a dilute ethanol-in-water solution, and purified to fuel grade ethanol. This sequence forms the basis for a biofuel production process that is currently being examined for its commercial potential. In this paper, we calculate the life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions for three different system scenarios for this proposed ethanol production process, using process simulations and thermodynamic calculations. The energy required for ethanol separation increases rapidly for low initial concentrations of ethanol, and, unlike other biofuel systems, there is little waste biomass available to provide process heat and electricity to offset those energy requirements. The ethanol purification process is a major consumer of energy and a significant contributor to the carbon footprint. With a lead scenario based on a natural-gas-fueled combined heat and power system to provide process electricity and extra heat and conservative assumptions around the ethanol separation process, the net life cycle energy consumption, excluding photosynthesis, ranges from 0.55 MJ/MJ(EtOH) down to 0.20 MJ/ MJ(EtOH), and the net life cycle greenhouse gas emissions range from 29.8 g CO?e/MJ(EtOH) down to 12.3 g CO?e/MJ(EtOH) for initial ethanol concentrations from 0.5 wt % to 5 wt %. In comparison to gasoline, these predicted values represent 67% and 87% reductions in the carbon footprint for this ethanol fuel on a energy equivalent basis. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions can be further reduced via employment of higher efficiency heat exchangers in ethanol purification and/ or with use of solar thermal for some of the process heat.  相似文献   

8.
Polyhydroxybutyrates (PHB) are well-known biopolymers derived from sugars orvegetable oils. Cradle-to-gate environmental performance of PHB derived from corn grain is evaluated through life cycle assessment (LCA), particularly nonrenewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Site-specific process information on the corn wet milling and PHB fermentation and recovery processes was obtained from Telles. Most of energy used in the corn wet milling and PHB fermentation and recovery processes is generated in a cogeneration power plant in which corn stover, assumed to be representative of a variety of biomass sources that could be used, is burned to generate electricity and steam. County level agricultural information is used in estimating the environmental burdens associated with both corn grain and corn stover production. Results show that PHB derived from corn grain offers environmental advantages over petroleum-derived polymers in terms of nonrenewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, PHB provides greenhouse gas credits, and thus PHB use reduces greenhouse gas emissions compared to petroleum-derived polymers. Corn cultivation is one of the environmentally sensitive areas in the PHB production system. More sustainable practices in corn cultivation (e.g., using no-tillage and winter cover crops) could reduce the environmental impacts of PHB by up to 72%.  相似文献   

9.
Debates surrounding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use of biofuels production have created a need to quantify the relative land use GHG intensity of fossil fuels. When contrasting land use GHG intensity of fossil fuel and biofuel production, it is the energy yield that greatly distinguishes the two. Although emissions released from land disturbed by fossil fuels can be comparable or higher than biofuels, the energy yield of oil production is typically 2-3 orders of magnitude higher, (0.33-2.6, 0.61-1.2, and 2.2 5.1 PJ/ha) for conventional oil production, oil sands surface mining, and in situ production, respectively). We found that land use contributes small portions of GHGs to life cycle emissions of California crude and in situ oil sands production ( <0.4% or < 0.4 gCO?e/MJ crude refinery feedstock) and small to modest portions for Alberta conventional oil (0.1-4% or 0.1-3.4 gCO?e/MJ) and surface mining of oil sands (0.9-11% or 0.8-10.2 gCO?e/MJ).Our estimates are based on assumptions aggregated over large spatial and temporal scales and assuming 100% reclamation. Values on finer spatial and temporal scales that are relevant to policy targets need to account for site-specific information, the baseline natural and anthropogenic disturbance.  相似文献   

10.
Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.  相似文献   

11.
Oil shale is a sedimentary rock that contains kerogen, a fossil organic material. Kerogen can be heated to produce oil and gas (retorted). This has traditionally been a CO2-intensive process. In this paper, the Shell in situ conversion process (ICP), which is a novel method of retorting oil shale in place, is analyzed. The ICP utilizes electricity to heat the underground shale over a period of 2 years. Hydrocarbons are produced using conventional oil production techniques, leaving shale oil coke within the formation. The energy inputs and outputs from the ICP, as applied to oil shales of the Green River formation, are modeled. Using these energy inputs, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the ICP are calculated and are compared to emissions from conventional petroleum. Energy outputs (as refined liquid fuel) are 1.2-1.6 times greater than the total primary energy inputs to the process. In the absence of capturing CO2 generated from electricity produced to fuel the process, well-to-pump GHG emissions are in the range of 30.6-37.1 grams of carbon equivalent per megajoule of liquid fuel produced. These full-fuel-cycle emissions are 21%-47% larger than those from conventionally produced petroleum-based fuels.  相似文献   

12.
Liquid transportation fuels derived from coal and natural gas could helpthe United States reduce its dependence on petroleum. The fuels could be produced domestically or imported from fossil fuel-rich countries. The goal of this paper is to determine the life-cycle GHG emissions of coal- and natural gas-based Fischer-Tropsch (FT) liquids, as well as to compare production costs. The results show that the use of coal- or natural gas-based FT liquids will likely lead to significant increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to petroleum-based fuels. In a best-case scenario, coal- or natural gas-based FT-liquids have emissions only comparable to petroleum-based fuels. In addition, the economic advantages of gas-to-liquid (GTL) fuels are not obvious: there is a narrow range of petroleum and natural gas prices at which GTL fuels would be competitive with petroleum-based fuels. CTLfuels are generally cheaper than petroleum-based fuels. However, recent reports suggest there is uncertainty about the availability of economically viable coal resources in the United States. If the U.S. has a goal of increasing its energy security, and at the same time significantly reducing its GHG emissions, neither CTL nor GTL consumption seem a reasonable path to follow.  相似文献   

13.
A life cycle-based model, GHOST (GreenHouse gas emissions of current Oil Sands Technologies), which quantifies emissions associated with production of diluted bitumen and synthetic crude oil (SCO) is developed. GHOST has the potential to analyze a large set of process configurations, is based on confidential oil sands project operating data, and reports ranges of resulting emissions, improvements over prior studies, which primarily included a limited set of indirect activities, utilized theoretical design data, and reported point estimates. GHOST is demonstrated through application to a major oil sands process, steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD). The variability in potential performance of SAGD technologies results in wide ranges of "well-to-refinery entrance gate" emissions (comprising direct and indirect emissions): 18-41 g CO(2)eq/MJ SCO, 9-18 g CO(2)eq/MJ dilbit, and 13-24 g CO(2)eq/MJ synbit. The primary contributor to SAGD's emissions is the combustion of natural gas to produce process steam, making a project's steam-to-oil ratio the most critical parameter in determining GHG performance. The demonstration (a) illustrates that a broad range of technology options, operating conditions, and resulting emissions exist among current oil sands operations, even when considering a single extraction technology, and (b) provides guidance about the feasibility of lowering SAGD project emissions.  相似文献   

14.
The objective of this paper was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 3 feeding strategies to reduce enteric CH4 production in dairy cows by calculating the effect on labor income at the farm level and on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the chain level (i.e., from production of farm inputs to the farm gate). Strategies included were (1) dietary supplementation of an extruded linseed product (56% linseed; 1 kg/cow per day in summer and 2 kg/cow per day in winter), (2) dietary supplementation of a nitrate source (75% nitrate; 1% of dry matter intake), and (3) reducing the maturity stage of grass and grass silage (grazing at 1,400 instead of 1,700 kg of dry matter/ha and harvesting at 3,000 instead of 3,500 kg of dry matter/ha). A dairy farm linear programing model was used to define an average Dutch dairy farm on sandy soil without a predefined feeding strategy (reference situation). Subsequently, 1 of the 3 feeding strategies was implemented and the model was optimized again to determine the new economically optimal farm situation. Enteric CH4 production in the reference situation and after implementing the strategies was calculated based on a mechanistic model for enteric CH4 and empirical formulas explaining the effect of fat and nitrate supplementation on enteric CH4 production. Other GHG emissions along the chain were calculated using life cycle assessment. Total GHG emissions in the reference situation added up to 840 kg of CO2 equivalents (CO2e) per t of fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM) and yearly labor income of €42,605. Supplementation of the extruded linseed product reduced emissions by 9 kg of CO2e/t of FPCM and labor income by €16,041; supplementation of the dietary nitrate source reduced emissions by 32 kg of CO2e/t of FPCM and labor income by €5,463; reducing the maturity stage of grass and grass silage reduced emissions by 11 kg of CO2e/t of FPCM and labor income by €463. Of the 3 strategies, reducing grass maturity was the most cost-effective (€57/t of CO2e compared with €241/t of CO2e for nitrate supplementation and €2,594/t of CO2e for linseed supplementation) and had the greatest potential to be used in practice because the additional costs were low.  相似文献   

15.
The technologies and practices that have enabled the recent boom in shale gas production have also brought attention to the environmental impacts of its use. It has been debated whether the fugitive methane emissions during natural gas production and transmission outweigh the lower carbon dioxide emissions during combustion when compared to coal and petroleum. Using the current state of knowledge of methane emissions from shale gas, conventional natural gas, coal, and petroleum, we estimated up-to-date life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, we developed distribution functions for key parameters in each pathway to examine uncertainty and identify data gaps such as methane emissions from shale gas well completions and conventional natural gas liquid unloadings that need to be further addressed. Our base case results show that shale gas life-cycle emissions are 6% lower than conventional natural gas, 23% lower than gasoline, and 33% lower than coal. However, the range in values for shale and conventional gas overlap, so there is a statistical uncertainty whether shale gas emissions are indeed lower than conventional gas. Moreover, this life-cycle analysis, among other work in this area, provides insight on critical stages that the natural gas industry and government agencies can work together on to reduce the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas.  相似文献   

16.
《Journal of dairy science》2023,106(5):3287-3300
Globally, ruminant production systems used to synthesize meat and milk differ tremendously in terms of their efficiency, productivity, and environmental impacts. Regardless of this variability, milk has been repeatedly identified as an essential source of nutrients for humans. The objective of this work was to characterize global contributions of fluid milk to human food and nutrient supplies, greenhouse gas emissions, and water withdrawal. Data were leveraged from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to estimate global supplies of agricultural products. Trade of agricultural products and waste of those products, along with use of human food for livestock feed were accounted for before estimating human nutrient supplies. The contributions of milk to human-edible nutrient supplies were then enumerated in terms of their proportion of total nutrients supplied by the agricultural system and in terms of the human population's requirement for that nutrient. We identified that fluid milk provides over 10% of consumable supplies of vitamin B12, vitamin A, riboflavin, and calcium available for humans globally. In terms of human nutrient requirements, milk provides sufficient vitamin B12 to meet the needs of over 60% of the global population, riboflavin to satisfy 50% of the population, and calcium and phosphorus for over 35% of the population. Compared with other foods, milk ranked among the highest in terms of nutrient-to-calorie ratio for numerous amino acids, phosphorus, calcium, and riboflavin. Conditional dependencies were identified between greenhouse gas emissions and ruminant milk and meat, but not between water withdrawal and milk production. When evaluating the trade-offs in nutrient use versus nutrient provision for producing milk or producing all ruminant products, the production of ruminants worldwide was associated with both net increases and net decreases of several key nutrients. Continued work focusing on strategies to reduce the environmental impact of milk production will improve the utility of milk for feeding the growing global population.  相似文献   

17.
We report on the particulate-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in the exhaust of a test-bed gas turbine engine when powered by Jet A-1 aviation fuel and a number of alternative fuels: Sasol fully synthetic jet fuel (FSJF), Shell gas-to-liquid (GTL) kerosene, and Jet A-1/GTL 50:50 blended kerosene. The concentration of PAH compounds in the exhaust emissions vary greatly between fuels. Combustion of FSJF produces the greatest total concentration of PAH compounds while combustion of GTL produces the least. However, when PAHs in the exhaust sample are measured in terms of the regulatory marker compound benzo[a]pyrene, then all of the alternative fuels emit a lower concentration of PAH in comparison to Jet A-1. Emissions from the combustion of Jet A-1/GTL blended kerosene were found to have a disproportionately low concentration of PAHs and appear to inherit a greater proportion of the GTL emission characteristics than would be expected from volume fraction alone. The data imply the presence of a nonlinear relation between fuel blend composition and the emission of PAH compounds. For each of the fuels, the speciation of PAH compounds present in the exhaust emissions were found to be remarkably similar (R(2) = 0.94-0.62), and the results do provide evidence to support the premise that PAH speciation is to some extent indicative of the emission source. In contrast, no correlation was found between the PAH species present in the fuel with those subsequently emitted in the exhaust. The results strongly suggests that local air quality measured in terms of the particulate-bound PAH burden could be significantly improved by the use of GTL kerosene either blended with or in place of Jet A-1 kerosene.  相似文献   

18.
The retail of food produces a large amount of carbon, both directly through embodied energy in the food and its packaging, and indirectly through energy use. Supermarkets are large consumers of energy in the UK, accounting for up to 5% of the UK’s total consumption. A large proportion of this energy, up to 50%, is used in refrigeration of food and much of this is used to cool open type display cabinets. However, work at Unilever Research Laboratory in the 1970s indicated that the input energy required for cooling open display refrigerated cabinets could be substantially reduced by applying low emissivity (i.e. high reflectance) materials in food packaging, causing the cabinet heat load and the temperatures of stored foods to be reduced. One drawback was that it was difficult to print on the surface of these materials without reducing their reflective properties. However, subsequent developments in packaging technology and the use of modern manufacturing processes have overcome the earlier disadvantages of these materials, permitting printing onto the external surfaces of low emissivity packaging, while still retaining its reflective properties. This paper presents an update of the Unilever study, in terms of the potential of modern, low emissivity food packaging materials for improving refrigeration system efficiency. The results of the new study indicate that some types of packaging will allow an increase in refrigerator operating temperature of up to 10 K, with no loss of refrigeration performance with respect to the food. This is expected to result in improved refrigeration system efficiency, with reductions of up to 30% in both energy consumption and carbon emissions and a likely significant increase in shelf life for stored foods. In addition, the embodied carbon for the packaging and the life cycle impact of its use, have been evaluated. Packaging having low embodied energy content has been identified, and it has been predicted that significant net savings in both carbon and energy are possible over the life cycle.  相似文献   

19.
This article presents a cradle-to-grave analysis of the United States fluid milk supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that are accounted from fertilizer production through consumption and disposal of milk packaging. Crop production and on-farm GHG emissions were evaluated using public data and 536 farm operation surveys. Milk processing data were collected from 50 dairy plants nationwide. Retail and consumer GHG emissions were estimated from primary data, design estimates, and publicly available data. Total GHG emissions, based primarily on 2007 to 2008 data, were 2.05 (90% confidence limits: 1.77–2.4) kg CO2e per kg milk consumed, which accounted for loss of 12% at retail and an additional 20% loss at consumption. A complementary analysis showed the entire dairy sector contributes approximately 1.9% of US GHG emissions. While the largest GHG contributors are feed production, enteric methane, and manure management; there are opportunities to reduce impacts throughout the supply chain.  相似文献   

20.
Nitrogen fertilizer plays an important role in corn cultivation in terms of both economic and environmental aspects. Nitrogen fertilizer positively affects corn yield and the soil organic carbon level, but it also has negative environmental effects through nitrogen-related emissions from soil (e.g., N20, NOx, NO3(-) leaching, etc.). Effects of nitrogen fertilizer on greenhouse gas emissions associated with corn grain are investigated via life cycle assessment. Ecoefficiency analysis is also used to determine an economically and environmentally optimal nitrogen application rate (NAR). The ecoefficiency index in this study is defined as the ratio of economic return due to nitrogen fertilizer to the greenhouse gas emissions of corn cultivation. Greenhouse gas emissions associated with corn grain decrease as NAR increases at a lower NAR until a minimum greenhouse gas emission level is reached because corn yield and soil organic carbon level increase with NAR. Further increasing NAR after a minimum greenhouse gas emission level raises greenhouse gas emissions associated with corn grain. Increased greenhouse gas emissions of corn grain due to nitrous oxide emissions from soil are much higher than reductions of greenhouse gas emissions of corn grain due to corn yield and changes in soil organic carbon levels at a higher NAR. Thus, there exists an environmentally optimal NAR in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. The trends of the ecoefficiency index are similar to those of economic return to nitrogen and greenhouse gas emissions associated with corn grain. Therefore, an appropriate NAR could enhance profitability as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with corn grain.  相似文献   

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