A Bayesian semi-parametric bivariate failure time model

In this paper we introduce a Bayesian semiparametric model for bivariate and multivariate survival data. The marginal densities are well-known nonparametric survival models and the joint density is constructed via a mixture. Our construction also defines a copula and the properties of this new copula are studied. We also consider the model in the presence of covariates and, in particular, we find a simple generalisation of the widely used frailty model, which is based on a new bivariate gamma distribution.     

Bayesian bivariate generalized Lindley model for survival data with a cure fraction

The cure fraction models have been widely used to analyze survival data in which a proportion of the individuals is not susceptible to the event of interest. In this article, we introduce a bivariate model for survival data with a cure fraction based on the three-parameter generalized Lindley distribution. The joint distribution of the survival times is obtained by using copula functions. We consider three types of copula function models, the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM), Clayton and Gumbel–Barnett copulas. The model is implemented under a Bayesian framework, where the parameter estimation is based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. To illustrate the utility of the model, we consider an application to a real data set related to an invasive cervical cancer study.     

Optimal dynamic hedging via copula-threshold-GARCH models

The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we exploit copula methodology, with two threshold GARCH models as marginals, to construct a bivariate copula-threshold-GARCH model, simultaneously capturing asymmetric nonlinear behaviour in univariate stock returns of spot and futures markets and bivariate dependency, in a flexible manner. Two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student's-t) and three Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel and the Mixture of Clayton and Gumbel) are utilized. Second, we employ the presenting models to investigate the hedging performance for five East Asian spot and futures stock markets: Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Compared with conventional hedging strategies, including Engle's dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model, the results show that hedge ratios constructed by a Gaussian or Mixture copula are the best-performed in variance reduction for all markets except Japan and Singapore, and provide close to the best returns on a hedging portfolio over the sample period.     

Multivariate distributions with proportional reversed hazard marginals

Several univariate proportional reversed hazard models have been proposed in the literature. Recently, Kundu and Gupta (2010) proposed a class of bivariate models with proportional reversed hazard marginals. It is observed that the proposed bivariate proportional reversed hazard models have a singular component. In this paper we introduce the multivariate proportional reversed hazard models along the same manner. Moreover, it is observed that the proposed multivariate proportional reversed hazard model can be obtained from the Marshall–Olkin copula. The multivariate proportional reversed hazard models also have a singular component, and their marginals have proportional reversed hazard distributions. The multivariate ageing and the dependence properties are discussed in details. We further provide some dependence measure specifically for the bivariate case. The maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters cannot be expressed in explicit forms. We propose to use the EM algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimators. One trivariate data set has been analysed for illustrative purposes.     

Semiparametric bivariate Archimedean copulas

While parametric copulas often lack expressive capacity to capture the complex dependencies that are usually found in empirical data, non-parametric copulas can have poor generalization performance because of overfitting. A semiparametric copula method based on the family of bivariate Archimedean copulas is introduced as an intermediate approach that aims to provide both accurate and robust fits. The Archimedean copula is expressed in terms of a latent function that can be readily represented using a basis of natural cubic splines. The model parameters are determined by maximizing the sum of the log-likelihood and a term that penalizes non-smooth solutions. The performance of the semiparametric estimator is analyzed in experiments with simulated and real-world data, and compared to other methods for copula estimation: three parametric copula models, two semiparametric estimators of Archimedean copulas previously introduced in the literature, two flexible copula methods based on Gaussian kernels and mixtures of Gaussians and finally, standard parametric Archimedean copulas. The good overall performance of the proposed semiparametric Archimedean approach confirms the capacity of this method to capture complex dependencies in the data while avoiding overfitting.     

Dependence tree structure estimation via copula

We propose an approach for dependence tree structure learning via copula. A nonparametric algorithm for copula estimation is presented. Then a Chow-Liu like method based on dependence measure via copula is proposed to estimate maximum spanning bivariate copula associated with bivariate dependence relations. The main advantage of the approach is that learning with empirical copula focuses on dependence relations among random variables, without the need to know the properties of individual variables as well as without the requirement to specify parametric family of entire underlying distribution for individual variables. Experiments on two real-application data sets show the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas. An application to the Spanish stock market

The problem of the identification of dependencies between time series of equity returns is analyzed. Marginal distribution functions are assumed to be known, and a bivariate chi-square test of fit is applied in a fully parametric copula approach. Several marginal models and families of copulas are fitted and compared with Spanish stock market data. The results show the difficulty in adjusting the bivariate distribution of raw returns, and highlight the effect of a GARCH filtering in the selection of the best fitting copula.     

A New Approach for Firm Value and Default Probability Estimation beyond Merton Models

In this paper we present a new model to assess the firm value and the default probability by using a bivariate contingent claim analysis and copula theory. First we discuss an unfeasible case, given the current derivative market on corporate bonds, which involves univariate digital options to compute the risk neutral probabilities. We then discuss a feasible model, which considers risky interest rates, instead. Moreover, we develop in this framework a new methodology to extract default probabilities from stock prices, only, going beyond the standard KMV-Merton model. Besides, the non-observability of the Merton model’s state variable requires numerical methods, but the results can be unstable with noisy risky data. We show how the null price can be used as a useful barrier to separate an operative firm from a defaulted one, and to estimate its default probability. We then present an empirical application with both operative and defaulted firms to show the advantages of our approach.      

Comparison of semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation and two-stage semiparametric estimation in copula models

We consider bivariate distributions that are specified in terms of a parametric copula function and nonparametric or semiparametric marginal distributions. The performance of two semiparametric estimation procedures based on censored data is discussed: maximum likelihood (ML) and two-stage pseudolikelihood (PML) estimation. The two-stage procedure involves less computation and it is of interest to see whether it is significantly less efficient than the full maximum likelihood approach. We also consider cases where the copula model is misspecified, in which case PML may be better. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that in the absence of covariates, two-stage estimation is highly efficient and has significant robustness advantages for estimating marginal distributions. In some settings, involving covariates and a high degree of association between responses, ML is more efficient. For the estimation of association, PML does not offer an advantage.     

A new algorithm based on copulas for VaR valuation with empirical calculations

This paper concerns the application of copula functions in VaR valuation. The copula function is used to model the dependence structure of multivariate assets. After the introduction of the traditional Monte Carlo simulation method and the pure copula method we present a new algorithm based on mixture copula functions and the dependence measure, Spearman’s rho. This new method is used to simulate daily returns of two stock market indices in China, Shanghai Stock Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Composite Index, and then empirically calculate six risk measures including VaR and conditional VaR. The results are compared with those derived from the traditional Monte Carlo method and the pure copula method. From the comparison we show that the dependence structure between asset returns plays a more important role in valuating risk measures comparing with the form of marginal distributions.     

Analyzing dependent proportions in cluster randomized trials: Modeling inter-cluster correlation via copula function

When two interventions are randomized to multiple sub-clusters within a whole cluster, accounting for the within sub-cluster (intra-cluster) and between sub-clusters (inter-cluster) correlations is needed to produce valid analyses of the effect of interventions. With the growing interest in copulas and their applications in statistical research, we demonstrate, through applications, how copula functions may be used to account for the correlation among responses across sub-clusters. Copulas having asymmetric dependence property may prove useful for modeling the relationship between random functions especially in clinical, health and environmental sciences where response data are in general skewed. These functions can in general be used to study scale-free measures of dependence, and they can be used as a starting point for constructing families of bivariate distributions, with a view to simulations. The core contribution of this paper is to provide an alternative approach for estimating the inter-cluster correlation using copula to accurately estimate the treatment effect when the outcome variable is measured on the dichotomous scale. Two data sets are used to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Linear B-spline copulas with applications to nonparametric estimation of copulas

In this paper, we propose a method for constructing a new class of copulas. They are called linear B-spline copulas which are a good approximation of a given complicated copula by using finite numbers of values of this copula without the loss of some essential properties. Moreover, rigorous analysis shows that the empirical linear B-spline copulas are more effective than empirical copulas to estimate perfectly dependent copulas. For the cases of nonperfectly dependent copulas, simulations show that the empirical linear B-spline copulas also improve the empirical copulas to estimate the underlying copula structure. Furthermore, we compare the performance of parametric estimation of copulas based on the empirical copulas with that based on the empirical linear B-spline copulas by simulations. In most of the cases, the latter are better than the former.     

Comorbidity of chronic diseases in the elderly: Patterns identified by a copula design for mixed responses

Joint modeling of multiple health related random variables is essential to develop an understanding for the public health consequences of an aging population. This is particularly true for patients suffering from multiple chronic diseases. The contribution is to introduce a novel model for multivariate data where some response variables are discrete and some are continuous. It is based on pair copula constructions (PCCs) and has two major advantages over existing methodology. First, expressing the joint dependence structure in terms of bivariate copulas leads to a computationally advantageous expression for the likelihood function. This makes maximum likelihood estimation feasible for large multidimensional data sets. Second, different and possibly asymmetric bivariate (conditional) marginal distributions are allowed which is necessary to accurately describe the limiting behavior of conditional distributions for mixed discrete and continuous responses. The advantages and the favorable predictive performance of the model are demonstrated using data from the Second Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA II).     

Likelihood-free Bayesian estimation of multivariate quantile distributions

In this paper, we present new multivariate quantile distributions and utilise likelihood-free Bayesian algorithms for inferring the parameters. In particular, we apply a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that is adaptive in nature and requires very little tuning compared with other approximate Bayesian computation algorithms. Furthermore, we present a framework for the development of multivariate quantile distributions based on a copula. We consider bivariate and time series extensions of the g-and-k distribution under this framework, and develop an efficient component-wise updating scheme free of likelihood functions to be used within the SMC algorithm. In addition, we trial the set of octiles as summary statistics as well as functions of these that form robust measures of location, scale, skewness and kurtosis. We show that these modifications lead to reasonably precise inferences that are more closely comparable to computationally intensive likelihood-based inference. We apply the quantile distributions and algorithms to simulated data and an example involving daily exchange rate returns.     

Copula density estimation by total variation penalized likelihood with linear equality constraints

A copula density is the joint probability density function (PDF) of a random vector with uniform marginals. An approach to bivariate copula density estimation is introduced that is based on maximum penalized likelihood estimation (MPLE) with a total variation (TV) penalty term. The marginal unity and symmetry constraints for copula density are enforced by linear equality constraints. The TV-MPLE subject to linear equality constraints is solved by an augmented Lagrangian and operator-splitting algorithm. It offers an order of magnitude improvement in computational efficiency over another TV-MPLE method without constraints solved by the log-barrier method for the second order cone program. A data-driven selection of the regularization parameter is through K-fold cross-validation (CV). Simulation and real data application show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The MATLAB code implementing the methodology is available online.     

The Bivariate Transmuted Family of Distributions: Theory and Applications

The bivariate distributions are useful in simultaneous modeling of two random variables. These distributions provide a way to model models. The bivariate families of distributions are not much widely explored and in this article a new family of bivariate distributions is proposed. The new family will extend the univariate transmuted family of distributions and will be helpful in modeling complex joint phenomenon. Statistical properties of the new family of distributions are explored which include marginal and conditional distributions, conditional moments, product and ratio moments, bivariate reliability and bivariate hazard rate functions. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameters of the family is also carried out. The proposed bivariate family of distributions is studied for the Weibull baseline distributions giving rise to bivariate transmuted Weibull (BTW) distribution. The new bivariate transmuted Weibull distribution is explored in detail. Statistical properties of the new BTW distribution are studied which include the marginal and conditional distributions, product, ratio and conditional momenst. The hazard rate function of the BTW distribution is obtained. Parameter estimation of the BTW distribution is also done. Finally, real data application of the BTW distribution is given. It is observed that the proposed BTW distribution is a suitable fit for the data used.     

Mixture cure models for multivariate survival data

Mixture cure models (MCMs) have been widely used to analyze survival data with a cure fraction. The MCMs postulate that a fraction of the patients are cured from the disease and that the failure time for the uncured patients follows a proper survival distribution, referred to as latency distribution. The MCMs have been extended to bivariate survival data by modeling the marginal distributions. In this paper, the marginal MCM is extended to multivariate survival data. The new model is applicable to the survival data with varied cluster size and interval censoring. The proposed model allows covariates to be incorporated into both the cure fraction and the latency distribution for the uncured patients. The primary interest is to estimate the marginal parameters in the mean structure, where the correlation structure is treated as nuisance parameters. The marginal parameters are estimated consistently by treating the observations within the cluster as independent. The variances of the parameters are estimated by the one-step jackknife method. The proposed method does not depend on the specification of correlation structure. Simulation studies show that the new method works well when the marginal model is correct. The performance of the MCM is also examined when the clustered survival times share common random effect. The MCM is applied to the data from a smoking cessation study.     

Nonparametric estimation of pair-copula constructions with the empirical pair-copula

A pair-copula construction is a decomposition of a multivariate copula into a structured system, called regular vine, of bivariate copulae or pair-copulae. The standard practice is to model these pair-copulae parametrically, inducing a model risk, with errors potentially propagating throughout the vine structure. The empirical pair-copula provides a nonparametric alternative, which is conjectured to still achieve the parametric convergence rate. Its main advantage for the user is that it does not require the choice of parametric models for each of the pair-copulae constituting the construction. It can be used as a basis for inference on dependence measures, for selecting an appropriate vine structure, and for testing for conditional independence.     

Modeling spot price dependence in Australian electricity markets with applications to risk management

We examine the dependence structure of electricity spot prices across regional markets in Australia. One of the major objectives in establishing a national electricity market was to provide a nationally integrated and efficient electricity market, limiting market power of generators in the separate regional markets. Our analysis is based on a GARCH approach to model the marginal price series in the considered regions in combination with copulae to capture the dependence structure between the marginals. We apply different copula models including Archimedean, elliptical and copula mixture models. We find a positive dependence structure between the prices for all considered markets, while the strongest dependence is exhibited between markets that are connected via interconnector transmission lines. Regarding the nature of dependence, the Student-t copula provides a good fit to the data, while the overall best results are obtained using copula mixture models due to their ability to also capture asymmetric dependence in the tails of the distribution. Interestingly, our results also suggest that for the four major markets, NSW, QLD, SA and VIC, the degree of dependence has decreased starting from the year 2008 towards the end of the sample period in 2010. Examining the Value-at-Risk of stylized portfolios constructed from electricity spot contracts in different markets, we find that the Student-t and mixture copula models outperform the Gaussian copula in a backtesting study. Our results are important for risk management and hedging decisions of market participants, in particular for those operating in several regional markets simultaneously.     

Smooth semiparametric and nonparametric Bayesian estimation of bivariate densities from bivariate histogram data

Penalized B-splines combined with the composite link model are used to estimate a bivariate density from a histogram with wide bins. The goals are multiple: they include the visualization of the dependence between the two variates, but also the estimation of derived quantities like Kendall’s tau, conditional moments and quantiles. Two strategies are proposed: the first one is semiparametric with flexible margins modeled using B-splines and a parametric copula for the dependence structure; the second one is nonparametric and is based on Kronecker products of the marginal B-spline bases. Frequentist and Bayesian estimations are described. A large simulation study quantifies the performances of the two methods under different dependence structures and for varying strengths of dependence, sample sizes and amounts of grouping. It suggests that Schwarz’s BIC is a good tool for classifying the competing models. The density estimates are used to evaluate conditional quantiles in two applications in social and in medical sciences.