滇中城市群经济发展差异的实证研究

区域差异反映了各区域之间的经济利益分配格局的变化及对经济利益竞争与平衡的要求,对一个地区健康协调发展有重要意义。本文通过测算滇中城市群的标准差、变差系数、差异指数、均衡度和经济区位商等指标,研究其滇中地区内部的差异程度,并对滇中城市群11年来的经济发展状况进行时序分析。研究表明:滇中地区绝对差异不断扩大,相对差异在缩小,GDP均衡度总体在上升,人口均衡度在下降,两者差异指数在缩小;滇中城市群城市化水平滞后于经济发展水平,而且城市化速度放缓。     

区域城市化的“山—海”差异及其启示

系统研究城市化进程的地区性差异是因地制宜制定本地战略的重要途径。基于对福建省沿海及山区城市化水平的综合评价和比较,文章从人口、经济、社会生活和城镇建设四个方面量化描述了福建省区域城市化的"山—海"差异现状,分析探讨差异产生的原因。结果显示,区域城市化的"山—海"差异一方面体现在地区间人口迁移和发展水平的不平衡,另一方面则体现在空间和公共资源潜力的分布格局。区域城市化现状与潜力两者之间的辩证关系为理解可持续城市化模式提供一条新的途径,并为科学规划区域城镇体系提供有效参考与指导。     

人口迁移,经济衰退和有关服务业经济的理论

本文通过人口总迁移量的时间分析、迁移与经济变量间的相互作用及对经济衰退期各区域净迁移人口转变的研究，阐述了人口迁移与服务业经济、经济衰退的相互关系。     

1980年代以来我国区域城市化差异的演变——及其影响因素

综述了关于我国城市化区域差异的研究成果,运用差异系数、基尼系数和泰尔指数测算了1980年代以来我国城市化水平的区域差异。研究发现全国省际城市化水平的相对差异一直在缩小,但2000年后发生了变化——全国分省的相对差异加速缩小,而三大区域之间的相对差异变得更加显著,并主导了全国的区域城市化差异。不仅如此,三大区域的绝对差异也越来越占据主导地位。进一步的研究发现,除了历史、地理和区位因素外,区域政策、经济发展差异、经济全球化、行政区划调整和省际人口迁移影响了区域城市化差异的演变趋势。最后本文提出了对未来城市化区域差异演变趋势的判断,并阐述了缩小城市化区域差异的现实政策意义。     

城乡人口迁移对基本医疗保险统筹基金长期精算平衡的影响分析——基于分区域人口发展模型的研究

本文运用分区域人口发展模型和社会医疗保险精算模型,测算了2016—2060年城乡人口迁移对基本医疗保险统筹基金的收入、支出、当期结余和累计结余的影响。研究结果表明:城乡人口迁移对统筹基金当期结余呈现出先积极后消极的影响效应;从短期来看,大规模年轻化迁移人口可以减缓城镇人口老龄化,将当期结余转负的时间节点从2036年推迟至2041年,从长期来看,城乡人口迁移反而加剧了当期收支失衡的风险;城乡人口迁移对累计结余的影响方式与当期结余类似,但时间节点略有滞后;鼓励生育、推迟退休年龄和提高缴费比例对统筹基金累计结余的影响程度和作用时间不同。建议科学评估城乡人口迁移对基本医疗保险的影响效应,设计劳动力迁入迁出地的利益平衡机制,合理调整生育政策、退休政策和医保政策,探索人口新常态下基本医疗保险制度的可持续发展长效机制。     

中国建筑业与区域经济耦合协调发展

在构建建筑业与区域经济耦合协调评价指标体系的基础上,以我国各省份为研究单元,运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型定量测算我国各省建筑业与区域经济间的耦合协调度,并结合ArcGIS 10.5对我国各省建筑业与区域经济间的耦合协调发展水平及时空分布规律进行分析。研究表明:2011—2017年间,我国建筑业与区域经济耦合协调总体上可划分为3大类型,区域间差异显著,区域经济发展滞后型省份数量较多。建筑业综合发展水平和区域经济发展水平省间发展不均衡,区域极化效应明显,总体上呈现出沿海省份高于内陆省份的空间格局特征;建筑业与区域经济耦合度省间存在一定差异,处于"多极"向"面状"发展阶段,辐射带动作用明显。整体上,建筑业与区域经济间的耦合协调度处于中级协调水平,总体协同发展效应有增强趋势,空间分布未发生明显变化。     

中国省际碳排放绩效及2020年减排目标分解

文章采用非参数化标准DDF模型测算了中国各省区的碳排放绩效,并基于效率与公平视角提出两阶段模型对中国2020年减排目标进行了省区情景模拟优化分配。研究结果显示,中国各省区低碳技术效率与边际减排成本呈现由西向东、由北向南逐步提升的非均衡发展特征。基于人均公平与相对效率的减排目标模拟分配结果具有一定的优越性,既考虑到省际发展的公平性,同时又兼顾了低碳产出相对效率的地区差异,具有一定的政策参考价值。     

国外人口空间分布演变机制研究综述

19世纪末以来,国外学者对人口迁移和人口迁居理论进行了大量研究,提出了"推力—拉力、新古典经济学、双重劳动力市场"三类人口空间分布演变理论与模型,分析了"经济、非经济"两类影响人口迁移(迁居)的因素。最后,文章从理论体系、研究方法、理论解释等方面对国外相关研究进行了述评。     

浅谈农村城镇化的作用机制

农村城镇化实际上是农村人口向城镇迁移的过程,它的运行也应遵循人口迁移理论。经典的人口迁移理论——推拉理论,为我们具体分析农村城镇化现象提供了一个有力的理论武器。笔者在介绍推拉理论的基础上,根据实际情况,引入城镇斥力和农村引力,补充完善了农村城镇化的作用机制。     

美国城镇化：区域经济和城市均衡发展

美国城市建设与经济发展和人口增长相适应,多数城市商务区和生活区分离,特别是由于人口流动自由、基础设施建设完善,区域经济和城市发展相对均衡,相关经验值得我国城市化建设借鉴。     

长三角城市群人口老龄化时空变化分析

人口老龄化是城市发展和城市管理考虑的重要因素。长三角城市群是人口老龄化的高峰地区。根据第五次、六次人口普查数据,分析了长三角城市群人口老龄化的空间分布特征与变化情况。研究表明,老年人口数量在长三角地区呈现北高南低的分布特点。沿沪宁、沪杭甬发展轴,人口老龄化空间分布呈逆核心边缘结构。人口老龄化水平区域差异的直接原因是人口迁移和老年人口的自然增长。经济发展水平、政府政策、城市规划、社会保障和文化等是重要影响因素。     

中国城市增长的类型及影响因素:基于人口和经济增长同步性的讨论

人口和经济的增长是城市增长最重要的两个方面。在城市的不同发展阶段,人口和经济的增长并不总是同步的,其增长的相对差异会体现为不同的城市增长型式。以中国地级及地级以上城市为研究对象,基于人口-经济增长的同步性划分中国城市的增长类型,并分析不同类型城市的增长特征及影响因素。研究发现,不同增长类型的城市反映了不同发展阶段的城市发展特征。城市发展初期,以显著的经济增长为特征,工业发展和地方专业化是城市经济增长的核心,而随着城市规模扩大,劳动生产率的提升不断吸引人口迁入和增长,人口和经济增长逐步实现良性互动,城市增长的正反馈机制形成。当城市达到较大规模时,城市经济的驱动逐步由工业转向服务业,城市经济转型,从生产型城市向消费型城市转变,经济的多样化和地方品质的提升成为驱动城市增长的核心。基于人口一经济增长同步性划分的城市增长类型有助于理解我国城市增长的路径,不同增长类型的城市应根据自身所处的发展阶段制定差异化的发展策略。     

Staying or leaving? The effects of university availability on educational choices and rural depopulation

Universities are often viewed as engines of local economic growth that could mitigate rural depopulation. However, university studies might make individuals more prone to move. We explore this issue in a quasi-experiment arising due to a sudden reduction in the number of student places at a regional university in northern Sweden in 1998. We find that the reduction in student places affected both educational choices and long-term migration. Women studied at a university further from home and became more mobile, while men neither studied nor moved. Also, to study at a distant university had a larger impact on migration than studies nearby. This heterogeneity contributes to the understanding of how education affects migration from rural areas.     

Spatio-temporal evolution of regional inequality and contribution decomposition of economic growth: A case study of Jiangsu Province,China

Regional inequality in the process of economic growth has recently been a popular topic. This paper creatively proposes contribution decomposition methods to divide various regions' contributions into economic contribution and population contribution. The methods consider not only economic growth but also population change, which may be more effective than the traditional method that uses the per capita GDP (gross domestic product) as its single measurement indicator. Moreover, the objective is to take a step forward and reveal the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of regional disparities by integrating barycentre model and economic development equilibrium model. Lastly, the applicability of the research method proposed in this paper is verified by a case study of Jiangsu province, China; the results show a new regional economic pattern in Jiangsu province.     

Simulations of state government fiscal policy: The balanced budget multiplier

State governments are becoming increasingly aware that fiscal policy is a method of affecting the aggregate level of economic activity in the state. This study analyzes the economic effects of the balanced budget multiplier within the regional context. Using a simple model of a regional economy, the study shows that factor migration and state-federal tax interactions eliminate the possibility of a balanced budget multiplier for the region. In addition, the impact of policy on employment and disposable personal income, primary indications of regional welfare, may be assymetrical. A series of simulations employing an econometric model of Alaska illustrates the likely magnitude of effects upon a region.     

Regional clustering of human capital: school grades and migration of university graduates

The spatial distribution of human capital plays a fundamental role for regional differences in economic growth and welfare. This paper examines how individual ability indicated by the grade point average (GPA) from comprehensive school affects the probability of migration among young university graduates in Sweden. Using detailed microdata available from the Swedish population register, the study examines two cohorts of individuals who enrol in tertiary education. The results indicate that individual abilities reflected by the GPA are strongly influential when it comes to completing a university degree and for the migration decision after graduation. Moreover, there is a positive relationship between the GPA and the choice of migrating from regions with a relatively low tax base and a relatively small share of highly educated people in the population, while individuals with higher GPA tend to stay at a higher rate in more flourishing regions.     

From school to university to work: migration of highly educated youths in China

A burgeoning body of the literature has studied the migration of university-bound students and university graduates in developed countries, but little research has been conducted on this issue in China. Using microdata from the 2005 1 % population sample survey, this paper examines, for the first time, the migration of university entrants and graduates in China by describing their migration patterns and modeling their choices of destination location. The migration patterns show that recent university graduates are highly concentrated in three eastern provincial units, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, and that the destinations of university entrants tend to be more dispersed geographically. The results from conditional logit models indicate that highly educated youths, in particular those who study in a regular university, have a strong tendency to stay in the same province after graduation. The migration of university entrants is determined mainly by regional differences in university enrollment, while the distribution of national key universities, economic opportunities, and the cost of living plays a less important role in their location choices. The migration of university graduates is driven primarily by regional differences in wage levels. Comparing with vocational college entrants, regular university entrants are attracted to regions with more national key universities. Comparing with vocational college graduates, regular university graduates are attracted to regions with higher wage levels. Our findings suggest that increasing labor market returns is a more effective approach than investing in higher education to curb brain drain in China’s less developed regions.     

From Low Demand to Rising Aspirations: Housing Market Renewal within Regional and Neighbourhood Regeneration Policy

The paper draws on qualitative empirical evidence from studies of regeneration in North-East England, and seeks to link housing market renewal to wider regeneration issues at regional and neighbourhood levels. It suggests that the discourse on, and justification of, housing market renewal has shifted from a specific concern with low housing demand and abandonment to a more generalised modernisation agenda seeking the restructuring of low-income neighbourhoods in terms not only of housing quality but also of tenure and population. This modernisation discourse is strongly linked to a regional economic regeneration agenda. It is argued that despite claims for the holistic nature of market renewal policies, it seems unlikely that these will improve the economic circumstances of existing residents as opposed to serving regional economic development objectives. Moreover, the more sweeping change implied by the modernisation agenda may reinforce the tension at neighbourhood level between community-led neighbourhood renewal and the restructuring of tenure and population through market renewal.     

Long-run regional population disparities in Europe during modern economic growth: a case study of Spain

The objective of the present study is to analyze the disparities in long-run regional population growth in continental Europe. To this end, we propose a convergence equation for regional population distribution for eight Western European countries in the period 1850–2000. Our results show that divergence in economic growth at regional level has been a common pattern in Europe. We choose the case of Spain in order to depict the characteristics of this process of regional demographic divergence, studying the spatial dynamic of the Spanish population, focusing firstly on the processes of concentration–dispersion on a general scale. Finally, we establish a regional typology of long-term Spanish population growth, based on cluster analysis.     

The migration response to the economic turnaround in New England

"This paper is an investigation of the dynamics of interstate migration flows to and from New England since 1975. The main goal of the research is to study the timing and volume of the lagged migration adjustment to the regional economic turnaround and the temporal stability of patterns of regional inflows and outflows. The paper is an examination of the responsiveness of interstate migration to changing regional economic conditions based on annual interstate migration data and a set of cross-sectional destination-specific Poisson regression models." The data are from a series developed by the Bureau of the Census based on Federal income tax returns.