Hybridizing principles of TOPSIS with case-based reasoning for business failure prediction

Case-based reasoning (CBR) solves many real-world problems under the assumption that similar observations have similar outputs. As an implementation of this assumption and inspired by the technique for order performance by the similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), this paper proposes a new type of multiple criteria CBR method for binary business failure prediction (BFP) with similarities to positive and negative ideal cases (SPNIC). Assuming that the binary prediction of business failure generates two results, i.e., failure and non-failure, we set the principle of this CBR forecasting method which is termed as SPNIC-based CBR as follows: new observations should have the same output as the positive or negative ideal case to which they are more similar. From the perspective of CBR, the SPNIC-based CBR forecasting method consists of R⁴ processes: retrieving positive and negative ideal cases, reusing solutions of ideal cases to forecast, retain cases, and reconstruct the case base. As a demonstration, we applied this method to forecast business failure in China with three data representations of a formerly collected dataset from normal economic environment and a representation of a recently collected dataset from financial crisis environment. The results indicate that this new CBR forecasting method can produce significantly better short-term discriminate capability than comparative methods, except for support vector machine, in normal economic environment; On the contrary, it cannot produce acceptable performance in financial crisis environment. Further topics about this method are discussed.     

Transferring Case Knowledge To Adaptation Knowledge: An Approach for Case-Base Maintenance

In this article we propose a case-base maintenance methodology based on the idea of transferring knowledge between knowledge containers in a case-based reasoning (CBR) system. A machine-learning technique, fuzzy decision-tree induction, is used to transform the case knowledge to adaptation knowledge. By learning the more sophisticated fuzzy adaptation knowledge, many of the redundant cases can be removed. This approach is particularly useful when the case base consists of a large number of redundant cases and the retrieval efficiency becomes a real concern of the user. The method of maintaining a case base from scratch, as proposed in this article, consists of four steps. First, an approach to learning feature weights automatically is used to evaluate the importance of different features in a given case base. Second, clustering of cases is carried out to identify different concepts in the case base using the acquired feature-weights knowledge. Third, adaptation rules are mined for each concept using fuzzy decision trees. Fourth, a selection strategy based on the concepts of case coverage and reachability is used to select representative cases. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach as well as to examine the relationship between compactness and performance of a CBR system, experimental testing is carried out using the Traveling and the Rice Taste data sets. The results show that the testing case bases can be reduced by 36 and 39 percent, respectively, if we complement the remaining cases by the adaptation rules discovered using our approach. The overall accuracies of the two smaller case bases are 94 and 90 percent, respectively, of the originals.     

Competence Models and the Maintenance Problem

Case-based reasoning (CBR) systems solve problems by retrieving and adapting the solutions to similar problems that have been stored previously as a case base of individual problem solving episodes or cases. The maintenance problem refers to the problem of how to optimize the performance of a CBR system during its operational lifetime. It can have a significant impact on all the knowledge sources associated with a system (the case base, the similarity knowledge, the adaptation knowledge, etc.), and over time, any one, or more, of these knowledge sources may need to be adapted to better fit the current problem-solving environment. For example, many maintenance solutions focus on the maintenance of case knowledge by adding, deleting, or editing cases. This has lead to a renewed interest in the issue of case competence, since many maintenance solutions must ensure that system competence is not adversely affected by the maintenance process. In fact, we argue that ultimately any generic maintenance solution must explicitly incorporate competence factors into its maintenance policies. For this reason, in our work we have focused on developing explanatory and predictive models of case competence that can provide a sound foundation for future maintenance solutions. In this article we provide a comprehensive survey of this research, and we show how these models have been used to develop a number of innovative and successful maintenance solutions to a variety of different maintenance problems.     

New CBR adaptation method combining with problem–solution relational analysis for mechanical design

Case based reasoning (CBR) methodology is proved to be a promising methodology on determining the parameter values of new mechanical product by adapting previously successful solutions to current problems. Compared with the sophisticated case retrieval technique, the case adaptation under K-nearest neighbour is still a bottleneck problem in CBR researches, which needs to be resolved urgently. According to the characteristics of parametric machinery design (PMD), i.e., less data and many parameters, this paper employs weighted mean (WM) as a basic model, and presents a new CBR adaptation method for PMD by integrating with problem–solution (PS) relational information. In our proposed adaptation method, prior to adapting the similar cases, the grey relational analysis (GRA) is utilized to investigate the PS relational information hidden in K retrieved cases, and the proposed method is called as GRA-WM. Different from classical WM method, the weighting factor of retrieved case for each solution element adaptation is calculated by multiplying similarity matrix (SM) and relational matrix (RM), and the adapted solution values of new mechanical product are subsequently obtained by calculating the weighted average of solution values of K similar cases. A case study on the power transformer design is given to prove the industrial applicability of GRA-WM. Moreover, the empirical comparisons between GRA-WM and other adaptation methods are carried out to validate its superiority. The empirical results indicate that GRA-WM can offer an acceptable adaptation proposal in application of CBR for mechanical design.     

A fuzzy-rough approach for the maintenance of distributed case-based reasoning systems

Case-based reasoning (CBR) means reasoning from prior examples and it has considerable potential for building intelligent assistant system for the World Wide Web. In order to develop successful Web-based CBR systems, we need to select a set of representative cases for the client side case-base such that this thin client is competence in problem solving. This paper proposes a fuzzy-rough method of selecting cases for such a distributed CBR system, i.e., a thin client system (a smaller case-base with rules) connected to a comparatively more powerful server system (the entire original case-base). The methodology is mainly based on the idea that an original case-base can be transformed into a smaller case-base together with a group of fuzzy adaptation rules, which could be generated using our fuzzy-rough approach. As a result, the smaller case-base with a group of fuzzy rules will almost have the same problem coverage as the entire original case-base. The method proposed in this paper, consists of four steps. First of all, an approach of learning feature weights automatically is used to evaluate the importance of different features in a given case-base. Secondly, clustering of cases is carried out to identify different concepts in the case-base using the acquired feature weights. Thirdly, fuzzy adaptation rules are mined for each concept using a fuzzy-rough method. Finally, a selection strategy which based on the concepts of case coverage and reachability is used to select representative cases. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated experimentally using some testing data in the travel domain. This project is supported by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University Grant G-V957 and H-ZJ90.     

Case-based reasoning and adaptation in hydraulic production machine design

Case-based reasoning (CBR) can support hydraulic circuit design. Existing expert systems for hydraulic system design use production rules as its source of knowledge. However, this leads to problems of knowledge acquisition and knowledge base maintenance. This paper describes the application of CBR to hydraulic circuit design for production machines, which helps solving problems using past experience. A technique Case-based adaptation (CBA) is implemented in the adaptation stage of CBR so that adaptation becomes much easier. A prototype system has been developed to verify the usefulness of CBR and CBA in hydraulic production machines.     

范例推理中的知识发现技术

范例推理中有许多相关的知识 ,相应地有知识获取过程 ,其中也存在一定程度的知识获取瓶颈问题 .本文着重探讨在范例推理系统中引入一系列可以使用的知识发现技术 ,以期提高范例推理系统的知识获取的自动化程度 ;本文针对提出的两类算法 ,进行了实验与讨论     

Fuzzy rule-based similarity model enables learning from small case bases

The concept of similarity plays a fundamental role in case-based reasoning. However, the meaning of “similarity” can vary in situations and is largely domain dependent. This paper proposes a novel similarity model consisting of linguistic fuzzy rules as the knowledge container. We believe that fuzzy rules representation offers a more flexible means to express the knowledge and criteria for similarity assessment than traditional similarity metrics. The learning of fuzzy similarity rules is performed by exploiting the case base, which is utilized as a valuable resource with hidden knowledge for similarity learning. A sample of similarity is created from a pair of known cases in which the vicinity of case solutions reveals the similarity of case problems. We do pair-wise comparisons of cases in the case base to derive adequate training examples for learning fuzzy similarity rules. The empirical studies have demonstrated that the proposed approach is capable of discovering fuzzy similarity knowledge from a rather low number of cases, giving rise to the competence of CBR systems to work on a small case library.     

Design and implementation of a case-based reasoning system for marketing plans

Unstructured intangible experiences and knowledge are usually difficult to represent and instantiate, which engenders the hardship of knowledge transfer and sharing. Past marketing plans are such valuable documents containing strategic planning knowledge and experiences.Case-Based Reasoning (CBR), which consists of retrieving, reusing, revising, and retaining cases, has been proved effective in retrieving information and knowledge from prior situations and being widely researched and applied in a great variety of problem territories.This paper targets at designing a CBR architecture and a method that facilitate the sharing and retrieving of cases of great concern to the marketing personnel. After an intensive survey of CBR methods and applications, a CBR system embedding multi-attribute decision making method, which provides both overall similarity level and similarity level of each selected attribute, is proposed to enhance the adaptation of a new marketing plan. In addition, a multi-attribute gap analysis diagram is developed to visualize the similarity along with the gap between candidate and target cases, so as to better support interaction and group decision making in the process of strategically formulating a new marketing plan. The CBR system was implemented and successfully demonstrated on case retrieval of a telecommunication company.     

Business failure prediction using hybrid2 case-based reasoning (H2CBR)

We have investigated business failure prediction (BFP) by a combination of decision-aid, statistical, and artificial intelligence techniques. The goal is to construct a hybrid forecasting method for BFP by combining various outranking preference functions with case-based reasoning (CBR), whose heart is the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm, and to empirically test the predictive performance of its modules. The hybrid² CBR (H²CBR) forecasting method was constructed by integrating six hybrid CBR modules. These hybrid CBR modules were built up by combining and modifying six outranking preference functions with the algorithm of k-NN inside CBR. A trial-and-error iterative process was employed to identify the optimal hybrid CBR module of the H²CBR forecasting system. The prediction of the optimal module is the final output of the H²CBR forecasting method. We have compared the predictive performance of the six hybrid CBR modules in BFP of Chinese listed companies. In this empirical study, the classical CBR algorithm based on the Euclidean metric, and the two classical statistical methods of logistic regression (Logit) and multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA) were used as baseline models for comparison. Feature subsets were selected with the stepwise method of MDA. The predictive performance of the H²CBR system is promising; the most preferred hybrid CBR for short-term BFP of Chinese listed companies is based on the ranking-order preference function.     

Integrating both Wikis and XML with case bases to facilitate case base development and maintenance

Case-based reasoning (CBR), as a promising technology for problem solving and decision support, has drawn considerable attention during the last 20 years. As CBR systems become more frequently deployed in real-world situations and as large-scale case-bases become more commonly used in practice, the development and maintenance of the case-base becomes critical to CBR practitioners. In reality, adding cases to a case-base and updating cases in a case-base can be troublesome and time-consuming processes. It has become increasingly important for CBR practitioners to be able to implement an efficient way to develop and maintain the case base. However, techniques for case-base development and maintenance (such as adding cases and updating cases) have not received enough attention and are often neglected by CBR researchers. This paper discusses Wikis and XML (specifically, the Office Open XML format) and proposes an integrated approach to facilitate case-base development and maintenance in adding cases and in updating cases.     

Assessment of four modifications of a novel indexing technique for case‐based reasoning

In this article, we investigate four variations (D‐HS^M, D‐HS^W, D‐HS^E, and D‐HS^EW) of a novel indexing technique called D‐HS designed for use in case‐based reasoning (CBR) systems. All D‐HS modifications are based on a matrix of cases indexed by their discretized attribute values. The main differences between them are in their attribute discretization stratagem and similarity determination metric. D‐HS^M uses a fixed number of intervals and simple intersection as a similarity metric; D‐HS^W uses the same discretization approach and a weighted intersection; D‐HS^E uses information gain to define the intervals and simple intersection as similarity metric; D‐HS^EW is a combination of D‐HS^E and D‐HS^W. Benefits of using D‐HS include ease of case and similarity knowledge maintenance, simplicity, accuracy, and speed in comparison to conventional approaches widely used in CBR. We present results from the analysis of 20 case bases for classification problems and 15 case bases for regression problems. We demonstrate the improvements in accuracy and/or efficiency of each D‐HS modification in comparison to traditional k‐NN, R‐tree, C4,5, and M5 techniques and show it to be a very attractive approach for indexing case bases. We also illuminate potential areas for further improvement of the D‐HS approach. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Int Syst 22: 353–383, 2007.     

基于知识发现的范例推理系统

1 引言范例推理(Case-Based Reasoning,CBR)是近十几年来人工智能中发展起来的区别于基于规则推理的一种推理模式,它是指借用旧的事例或经验来解决问题、评价解决方案、解释异常情况或理解新情况。CBR兴起的主要原因是传统的基于规则的系统存在诸多的缺点,如:在知识获取问题上存在困难,对于处理过的问题没有记忆而导致推理效率低下,不能有效地处理例外情况,整体性能较为脆弱等等,而CBR恰好能解决以上问题。     

实例推理和规则推理在实例修改中的应用

在CBR系统中实例修改是一个关键环节,该文通过分析几种实例修改的方法,提出了将实例推理和规则推理进行整合后引入到实例修改过程中,建立修改规则库来完成实例修改,并就如何建立修改规则库进行了说明,为建立智能化的实例修改提供一种思路。     

Enhancing case-based regression with automatically-generated ensembles of adaptations

Instance-based methods have been successfully applied to numerical prediction (regression) tasks in many domains. Such methods often rely on a simple combination function to generate a prediction from past instances. Case-based reasoning for regression adds a richer case adaptation step to adjust prior solutions to fit new problems. This article presents a new approach to case adaptation for case-based regression systems, based on applying an ensemble of case adaptation rules generated automatically from pairs of cases in the case base, using the case difference heuristic. It evaluates the method’s performance, considering in particular the effects of using local versus global case information to generate adaptation rules from the case base. Experimental results support that the proposed method generally outperforms baselines and that the accuracy of adaptation based on locally-generated rules is highly competitive with that of global rule-generation methods considering many more cases.     

基于本体的案例推理模型研究*

提出了基于本体的案例检索及相似性评估方法和基于本体的案例适配模型,使得CBR(case-based reasoning)系统的开发可在语义层次上进行相似性评估和案例适配,这样得到的结果更能反映用户的真实需求;并且CBR所需要的领域知识可从本体中获取,大大降低了传统CBR系统中知识获取的瓶颈。最后在此基础上,提出了基于本体的CBR系统模型框架,从软件复用的角度提高了CBR系统的开发效率。     

A NEW APPROACH FOR THE INCREMENTAL DEVELOPMENT OF RETRIEVAL FUNCTIONS FOR CBR

We present a new approach to the effective development of complex retrieval components for case-based reasoning systems (CBR). Our approach goes beyond the traditional CBR approach by allowing an incremental refinement of an existing retrieval knowledge base during routine use of the system. The refinement takes place through a direct expert-system interaction while the expert is accomplishing their given tasks. We lend ideas from ripple-down rules (RDR), a proven method for the very effective and efficient acquisition of classification knowledge during the routine use of a knowledge-based system (KBS).

In our approach the expert is only required to provide explanations of why, for a given problem, a certain case should be retrieved. Incrementally a complex retrieval knowledge base as a composition of many simple retrieval functions is developed. This approach is effective with respect to both the development of highly tailored and complex retrieval knowledge bases for CBR as well as providing an intuitive and feasible approach for the expert. The approach has been implemented in our CBR system MIKAS (Menu construction using an Incremental Knowledge Acquisition System) that allows to automatically construct a menu that is strongly tailored to the individual requirements and food preferences of a client.     

Extended object model for product configuration design

This paper presents an extended object model for case-based reasoning (CBR) in product configuration design. In the extended object model, a few methods of knowledge expression are adopted, such as constraints, rules, objects, etc. On the basis of extended object model, case representation model for CBR is applied to product configuration design system. The product configuration knowledge can be represented by the extended object. The model can support all the processes of CBR in product configuration design, such as case representation, indexing, retrieving, and case revising. The presented model is an extension of the traditional object-oriented model by including the relationship class used to express the relation between the cases, constraints class used in the product configuration knowledge representation, index class used in case retrieving, and solution class used in case revising. Therefore, the product configuration knowledge used in the product configuration design can be represented by using this model. In the end, a metering pump product configuration design system is developed on the basis of the proposed product configuration model to support customized products.     

Maintaining Case-Based Reasoners: Dimensions and Directions

Experience with the growing number of large-scale and long-term case-based reasoning (CBR) applications has led to increasing recognition of the importance of maintaining existing CBR systems. Recent research has focused on case-base maintenance (CBM), addressing such issues as maintaining consistency, preserving competence, and controlling case-base growth. A set of dimensions for case-base maintenance, proposed by Leake and Wilson, provides a framework for understanding and expanding CBM research. However, it also has been recognized that other knowledge containers can be equally important maintenance targets. Multiple researchers have addressed pieces of this more general maintenance problem, considering such issues as how to refine similarity criteria and adaptation knowledge. As with case-base maintenance, a framework of dimensions for characterizing more general maintenance activity, within and across knowledge containers, is desirable to unify and understand the state of the art, as well as to suggest new avenues of exploration by identifying points along the dimensions that have not yet been studied. This article presents such a framework by (1) refining and updating the earlier framework of dimensions for case-base maintenance, (2) applying the refined dimensions to the entire range of knowledge containers, and (3) extending the theory to include coordinated cross-container maintenance. The result is a framework for understanding the general problem of case-based reasoner maintenance (CBRM). Taking the new framework as a starting point, the article explores key issues for future CBRM research.