On safety management in the petroleum activities on the Norwegian Continental Shelf

This paper discusses some key principles and tools of safety management. Emphasis is placed on the process of establishing cost-effective solutions which meet the risk acceptance criteria and emergency preparedness requirements. The starting point for the discussion is the new regulations issued by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate on risk analysis and emergency preparedness in the petroleum activities on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.     

An approach to maintenance optimization where safety issues are important

The starting point for this paper is a traditional approach to maintenance optimization where an object function is used for optimizing maintenance intervals. The object function reflects maintenance cost, cost of loss of production/services, as well as safety costs, and is based on a classical cost–benefit analysis approach where a value of prevented fatality (VPF) is used to weight the importance of safety. However, the rationale for such an approach could be questioned. What is the meaning of such a VPF figure, and is it sufficient to reflect the importance of safety by calculating the expected fatality loss VPF and potential loss of lives (PLL) as being done in the cost–benefit analyses? Should the VPF be the same number for all type of accidents, or should it be increased in case of multiple fatality accidents to reflect gross accident aversion?In this paper, these issues are discussed. We conclude that we have to see beyond the expected values in situations with high safety impacts. A framework is presented which opens up for a broader decision basis, covering considerations on the potential for gross accidents, the type of uncertainties and lack of knowledge of important risk influencing factors. Decisions with a high safety impact are moved from the maintenance department to the “Safety Board” for a broader discussion. In this way, we avoid that the object function is used in a mechanical way to optimize the maintenance and important safety-related decisions are made implicit and outside the normal arena for safety decisions, e.g. outside the traditional “Safety Board”.A case study from the Norwegian railways is used to illustrate the discussions.     

The science-industry interface in the petroleum industry: Correlation of time series of indicators and their spectra,and growth modelling

Petroleum production and exploration, used as petroleum industry indicators, and accumulation of petroleum-related geoscience literature, used as a science indicator, were compared by several means to gauge the degree of interaction between science and the industry in the period 1934–1990. Methods of comparison employed were: time domain correlations and crosscorrelation; correlations of spectra using coherence and crosspower spectra, and growth-modelling of the indicators. A fifty-year exploration cycle was found, beginning about 1945. Principal features of this cycle seem to coincide with prominent features in the time series for geoscience literature, and both of these variables are correlated with petroleum production. All three variables appear to have been determined ultimately by economic and political events which affected the petroleum industry. All of them show long-period cycles which coincide with the fourth Kondratiev cycle and the beginning of the fifth Kondratiev. The longest time series used (petroleum production in the United States, 1860–1990) shows long-period cycles matching the third, fourth and fifth Kondratiev cycles.     

On the use of risk acceptance criteria in the offshore oil and gas industry

Risk acceptance criteria, as upper limits of acceptable risks, have been used for offshore activities on the Norwegian Continental Shelf for more than 20 years. The common thinking has been that risk analyses and assessments cannot be conducted in a meaningful way without the use of such criteria. The ALARP principle also applies, but the risk acceptance criteria have played a more active role in the assessment processes than seen for example in the UK. Recently there has, however, been a discussion about the suitability of risk acceptance criteria to assess and control risks. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this discussion by presenting and discussing a risk analysis regime that is not based on the use of risk acceptance criteria at all. We believe that we can do better if cost-effectiveness (in a wide sense) is the ruling thinking rather than adoption of pre-defined risk acceptance limits. This means a closer resemblance with the ALARP principle as adopted in the UK and other countries, but is not a direct application of this practice. Also the building blocks of the common way of applying the ALARP principle are reviewed. The Norwegian offshore oil and gas industry is the starting point, but the discussion is to large extent general.     

Stochastic modelling for the analysis of blowout risk in exploration drilling

This article discusses the theoretical basis and the general framework related to stochastic blowout modelling in an offshore risk management context. The general scope is put forward by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) and the operating companies' need for an adequate decision making tool that permits studies of the effects of implemented risk reducing measures based on local conditions. Previous work and today's practices regarding stochastic modelling for the analysis of blowout risk are reviewed and discussed. Moreover, a different and perhaps more thorough approach to blowout risk modelling in exploration drilling is suggested that is based upon physical causal mechanisms and expert judgements combined with hard data rather than world wide blowout statistics.     

Association of work-related accidents with noise exposure in the workplace and noise-induced hearing loss based on the experience of some 240,000 person-years of observation

This retrospective study explores the association between occupational noise exposure at the time of hearing tests, permanent noise-induced hearing loss and work-related accident risk. Log-binomial analysis was used to first ascertain the association between study variables according to activity sector (North American Industry Classification System, NAICS) and accident context while controlling for age. Second part of the paper estimates the overall number of accidents attributable to occupational noise or the associated hearing loss (excess fraction). Study was carried on a sample of 52,982 male workers exposed to a minimum of 80dBA on a daily basis and whose hearing was examined at least once between 1983 and 1996 by public health authorities of Quebec. These participants evidenced bilateral average hearing threshold levels at 3, 4 and 6kHz ranging from normal (/=90dBA) and noise-induced hearing loss.     

Traffic safety among motorcyclists in Norway: A study of subgroups and risk factors

Although it is widely recognized that motorcyclists have a particularly high accident risk, our knowledge of the mechanisms producing this accident risk is incomplete. The aims of the present paper are to identify subgroups of motorcyclists with a particularly high accident risk and to identify the relevant risk factors at work. The study presented in this paper relies both on a questionnaire (N = 3356) relating rider characteristics, behaviors and accident risk, and analyses of fatal motorcycle accidents (ca. 100) from 2005 to 2008 in Norway. The results reveal that riders of racing replica bikes (sport bikes), and riders younger than 19 years, including especially youths (16–17 years) riding light motorcycles (≤125 cm³), are subgroups of Norwegian motorcyclists with particularly high accident risks. Analysis of fatal motorcycle accidents reveals that about half of the fatal accidents involve sport bikes. Nearly all fatal accidents with sport bikes involved excessive speed. The combination of low age, low experience, risky behavior and “unsafe” attitudes seems to be a particular potent risk factor for Norwegian motorcyclists.     

Accidents in the construction industry in the Netherlands: An analysis of accident reports using Storybuilder

As part of an ongoing effort by the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment of the Netherlands, a research project is being undertaken to construct a causal model for occupational risk. This model should provide quantitative insight into the causes and consequences of occupational accidents. One of the components of the model is a tool to systematically classify and analyse reports of past accidents. This tool ‘Storybuilder’ was described in earlier papers. In this paper, Storybuilder is used to analyse the causes of accidents reported in the database of the Dutch Labour Inspectorate involving people working in the construction industry. Conclusions are drawn on measures to reduce the accident probability. Some of these conclusions are contrary to common beliefs in the industry.     

Aviation safety and maintenance under major organizational changes, investigating non-existing accidents

The objective of this paper is to discuss the following questions: Do concurrent organizational changes have a direct impact on aviation maintenance and safety, if so, how can this be measured? These questions were part of the investigation carried out by the Accident Investigation Board, Norway (AIBN). The AIBN investigated whether Norwegian aviation safety had been affected due to major organizational changes between 2000 and 2004. The main concern was the reduction in safety margins and its consequences.This paper presents a summary of the techniques used and explains how they were applied in three airlines and by two offshore helicopter operators. The paper also discusses the development of safety related indicators in the aviation industry. In addition, there is a summary of the lessons learned and safety recommendations. The Norwegian Ministry of Transport has required all players in the aviation industry to follow up the findings and recommendations of the AIBN study.     

The special severity of occupational accidents in the afternoon: "the lunch effect"

The severity of occupational accidents suffered by construction workers at different hours of the day is analyzed in this study. It may be seen that the interval of time between 13:00 and 17:00 has incomprehensibly high rates of severe and fatal accidents in comparison with any other. We associate this higher accident rate with what we have termed the “lunch effect”. We studied 10,239,303 labor accidents in Spain over the period 1990–2002. The relationships between potential risk factors for occupational accidents around lunch in Spain, especially alcohol consumption are studied, using two methods: analysis of national archival data of 2,155,954 occupational accidents suffered by workers in the construction sector over the period 1990–2002 and a survey study. This study also seeks to contribute the opinions of the workers themselves regarding the causes that might explain this situation.     

Gender and age distribution of occupational fatalities in Taiwan

This study analyzed fatal occupational injuries in Taiwan. One thousand eight hundred ninety work-related accident reports filed in the years 1996-1999 were extracted from the annual publication of the Council of Labor Affairs (CLA). These data were analyzed in terms of gender, age and work experience of the accident victim as well as accident type and the work-related source of injury to identify significant contributing factors. The CLA data showed that work-related falls were the leading cause of work-related fatalities in both male and female workers (38.2% of male victims and 39.2% of female victims). Gender differences were also noted in the accident type and age of the injured workers. Male workers had a significantly higher prevalence of fatal occupational injuries than female workers throughout the analyzed period (7.4 compared to 0.9 per 100,000 full-time workers). Young males aged 24 years or less had the highest rate of fatal occupational injuries. The finding that gender and age are major factors in occupational injuries is a significant finding in the field of occupational safety and may be helpful for developing accident prevention programs.     

Effect of consecutive driving on accident risk: A comparison between passenger and freight train driving

This study combined driver-responsible accidents with on-board driving hours to examine the effect of consecutive driving on the accident risk of train operations. The data collected from the Taiwan Railway Administration for the period 1996–2006 was used to compute accident rates for varied accumulated driving hours for passenger and freight trains. The results showed that accident risk grew with increased consecutive driving hours for both passenger and freight trains, and doubled that of the first hour after four consecutive hours of driving. Additional accident risk was found for freight trains during the first hour due to required shunting in the marshalling yards where there are complex track layouts and semi-automatic traffic controls. Also, accident risk for train driving increased more quickly over consecutive driving hours than for automobile driving, and accumulated fatigue caused by high working pressure and monotony of the working environment are considered to be the part of the reason. To prevent human errors accidents, enhancing safety equipment, driver training programs, and establishing a sound auditing system are suggested and discussed.     

Storybuilder—A tool for the analysis of accident reports

As part of an ongoing effort by the ministry of Social Affairs and Employment of The Netherlands a research project is being undertaken to construct a causal model for the most commonly occurring scenarios related to occupational risk. This model should provide quantitative insight in the causes and consequences of occupational accidents. The results should be used to help selecting optimal strategies to reduce these risks taking the costs of accidents and of measures into account. The research is undertaken by an international consortium under the name of Workgroup Occupational Risk Model. One of the components of the model is a tool to systematically classify and analyse past accidents. This tool: “Storybuilder” and its place in the Occupational Risk Model (ORM) are described in the paper.The paper gives some illustrations of the application of the Storybuilder, drawn from the study of ladder accidents, which forms one of the biggest single accident categories in the Dutch data.     

Corrosion-fatigue durability of pipe steel in carbonate-bicarbonate medium

Ufa Petroleum Institute, Ufa. Translated from Fiziko-Khimicheskaya Mekhanika Materialov. Vol. 29, No. 5, pp. 97–98, September–October, 1993.     

Challenges in using a probabilistic safety assessment in a risk informed process (illustrated using risk informed inservice inspection)

Many of the ongoing and expected uses of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA)¹ create new challenges to ensuring that the resulting conclusions are valid. This paper provides a summary of some of these challenges. Work conducted by the authors on Risk-Informed Inservice Inspection (RI-ISI) is used to illustrate these challenges. Means to address all of the challenges are not provided in detail in this paper. Several earlier papers discuss how these challenges can be addressed. References are provided for the interested reader (Chapman JR et al. In: PSA '95, vol. 1, Seoul, 1995: 177–80; Chapman JR et al. In: ICONE-IV, New Orleans, 1996; Dimitrijevic VB et al. In: Croatian Nuclear Society International Conference, Opatija, 1996: 245–54; Dimitrijevic VB et al. In: Croatian Nuclear Society International Conference, Opatija, 1996: 255–62; Dimitrijevic VB. In: Yugoslav Nuclear Society Conference, Belgrade, 1996: 53–61; O'Regan PJ et al. In: PSA '95, Seoul, vol. 1, 1995: 403–5; O'Regan PJ. In: ICONE-IV, vol. 5, New Orleans, 1996: 277–80).     

Scientific Productivity and Group Size: A Bibliometric Analysis of Norwegian Microbiological Research

To analyse the relationship between research group size and scientific productivity within the highly cooperative research environment characteristic of contemporary biomedical science, an investigation of Norwegian Microbiology was undertaken. By an author-gated retrieval from ISI's database National Science Indicators on Diskette (NSIOD), of journal articles published by Norwegian scientists involved in microbiological research during the period 1992–1996, a total of 976 microbiological and 938 non-microbiological articles, by 3,486 authors, were obtained. Functional research groups were defined bibliometrically on the basis of co-authorship, yielding a total of 180 research groups varying in size from one author/one article to 180 authors/83 articles (all authors associated with a group during the whole five-year period were included, hence the large group size). Most of Norwegian microbiological research (73% of the microbiology articles) appears to be performed by specialist groups (with 70% of their production as microbiology), the remainder being published by groups with a broader biomedical research profile (who were responsible for 95% of the non-microbiological articles). The productivity (articles per capita) showed only moderate (Poisson-distributed) variability between groups, and was remarkably constant across all subfields, at about 0.1 article per author per year. No correlation between group size and productivity was found.     

UNEP assesment of the Montreal protocol: Refrigeration within the framework of the technology review

In order to provide a scientific and technological basis for adjustments and amendments to the Montreal Protocol (which was conceived and adopted in 1987), a large number of reports were made by international experts in 1989. These reports are used in the assessment procedure which takes place in the period June 1989–June 1990, after which period final decisions will be made by the Contracting Parties in the so-called ‘Second Meeting of the Parties’. In this contribution the assessment process and the time schedule of the whole procedure is described. One of the Panel Reports centres on a Review of the Technology; conclusions from this report are presented. In its turn, information in this report is based on sector reports, one of which is the Options Report ‘Refrigeration, AC and Heat Pumps’. Specific topics dealt with in this sector report are presented here. Some concluding remarks on the findings presented in the reports and on possible future reassessments are given.     

Occupational injury in the French sea fishing industry: a comparative study between the 1980s and today

This study aims at comparing two data bases related to occupational injuries in the French sea fishing industry: a data base created between 1977 and 1980, a data base created between 1996 and 2001. These bases were made from report forms filled out by fishermen after an accident. The study focuses on the accidents occurring when the vessel is in the process of fishing. In the 1980s, as well as today, the processing of fishing gear seems to be a very dangerous task, correlated with the risk of being "struck by, swept along, pinned" by the elements of the rigging and the risk of serious injuries. The processing and handling of the catch also cause a large amount of accidents; during these tasks, fishermen have to cope with two main risks: being "cut or pricked" and making an "excessive effort, awkward movement". Rate and features of occupational accidents do not show notable evolution. These findings lead us to question the different prevention measures implemented in France during the last few decades and to propose new prevention direction.     

Prediction of Migration of Radionuclides in the Iput River Basin

Based on the multichamber model, prediction evaluations of the transfer of ¹³⁷Cs and ⁹⁰Sr in the Iput river for 100 years after the Chernobyl accident have been performed. In the course of investigation, the indicated time range was subdivided into three periods: the first period covered April–December of 1986 (retrospective evaluation), the second period embraced the years 1987–2000, and the third period covered the years 2000–2080 (long-term prediction). The prediction evaluations of migration of radioactive contaminants in the Iput river have shown that over the course of a century the concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs in the Iput river network will decrease nearly 3000 times and the concentrations of ⁹⁰Sr will decrease 10,000 times. However the levels of contamination of the river systems by these radionuclides will remain rather high.