Price discovery of property markets in Shenzhen and Hong Kong

Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while being interrelated in many aspects, have encountered different types of demand shocks throughout the past decade. This is likely due to disparities in market conditions and degrees of government regulations. In the light of such differences in property price trends, this research first investigates the relationships between housing prices and market fundamentals for both cities; and then it explores whether a housing price bubble existed for them in 2006. The results indicate that housing prices seem to have interacted abnormally with market fundamentals in recent years, especially for Shenzhen. In addition, while Shenzhen’s housing prices are mainly explained by previous housing prices and personal income, most economic indicators explain Hong Kong’s housing prices well. With regard to price bubbles, a puny bubble which amounts to as much as 4.5% of the housing price was formed in Shenzhen in 2006. In the meantime, the housing price bubble for Hong Kong had been diminished. Though currently not at dangerous levels, housing price bubbles should be taken with caution especially in today’s China, characterized by overinvestment and rapid policy changes.     

On land supply and the price of residential housing

This paper develops an econometric model to examine the impact of land supply on residential housing prices. Specifically, this study examines the role of population, permanent income, real mortgage interest rates, construction cost, speculative demand, land supply and government land policy in the determination of private housing prices in Hong Kong. Empirical results provide strong evidence that an increase in land supply will bring forth a decrease in housing prices. The results also reveal that housing prices are dominated by the fundamental demographic and economic factors. The relatively small response coefficients suggest that speculative demand and land supply have a significant but modest impact on housing prices.     

Accommodating discontent: youth,conflict and the housing question in Hong Kong

Young people across many societies face growing problems in making the transition from the parental home to independent living. Rising house prices and the lack of affordable alternatives to home ownership is most commonly blamed. This paper explores these issues in relation to young people in Hong Kong. The paper argues that the housing question in Hong Kong has distinct local characteristics and cannot be disconnected from wider political and economic tensions. It also shows that the housing choices and views of young people are shaped by more than issues of cost and access. The paper draws on a unique data-set which explores the attitudes and expectations with regard to housing among young people in Hong Kong. Addressing the housing problem is widely regarded as a political priority and essential to maintain social cohesion. However, political imperatives and economic interests are pulling in different directions.     

The British housing market: contained and exploding1

While the long run trend in housing prices in the UK has been upwards since the mid‐1950s the post 1998 boom represents short term volatility and threatens stability in the wider economy. This paper argues the fundamental reason driving both the rise in the real price of housing and its increased volatility is the increasing constraint on the supply or urban space applied by the British system of land use planning and its attempts to contain urban areas. Housing is an economic good and the supply of available housing space is allocated through the market. As incomes rise people try to purchase more space. This not only drives up the price of space and so housing but it also makes the supply of housing more inelastic and so the price more volatile. Housing increasingly behaves like a financial asset marker rather than a market for housing services.     

The British housing market: contained and exploding

While the long run trend in housing prices in the UK has been upwards since the mid-1950s the post 1998 boom represents short term volatility and threatens stability in the wider economy. This paper argues the fundamental reason driving both the rise in the real price of housing and its increased volatility is the increasing constraint on the supply or urban space applied by the British system of land use planning and its attempts to contain urban areas. Housing is an economic good and the supply of available housing space is allocated through the market. As incomes rise people try to purchase more space. This not only drives up the price of space and so housing but it also makes the supply of housing more inelastic and so the price more volatile. Housing increasingly behaves like a financial asset marker rather than a market for housing services.     

Marriage-induced homeownership as a driver of housing booms: evidence from Hong Kong

Abstract

Buying a home for marriage is customary in many societies. Traditionally, therefore, young couples getting married is a key driver of demand for homeownership. Yet the idea of marriage-induced demand for homeownership is a relatively underexplored component of housing price change. We examine the role of marriage-induced demand for homeownership in Hong Kong, a relatively self-contained housing market with fewer options for migration than most large cities. We use an instrumental variable strategy to test the hypothesis that more unmarried individuals at the prime age for marriage increases housing prices. We find that an additional one thousand marriage-aged but unmarried individuals leads to a seven per cent increase in housing prices. These findings confirm the importance of demographic factors such as cohort size and marriage rates on housing price projections, housing needs assessments, and housing policy.     

空气污染对住房价格的影响以及环境政策的效果分析 — —以美国休斯顿地区为例

在过去的几十年中,美国通过联邦 的环境保护署致力于改良城市空气质量,在 大范围上取得了相当优异的成绩。然而,在 一些重要的工业大都会,空气污染依旧比较 严重。工业排放和依赖传统化石能源的交通 工具被普遍认为是城市空气污染的两个主要 来源。在国外城市规划的相关研究中,经常 探讨污染对居民住房选择的影响,评价社区 发展的公平性与正义性,并提出相应的环境 污染管理政策。然而,很少有研究对环境政 策的效果进行量化评价。本文选择美国德克 萨斯州休斯顿地区作为研究对象,分析研究 空气污染和住房价格之间的潜在联系,回答 空气污染是否对住房价格具有显著影响的 问题。同时,探讨空气污染对不同种族聚居 的社区的影响,以及区域性环境保护政策的效果,特别是对空气质量和住房价格的关系所产生的影响。本研究采用享乐价格模型（hedonic price model）,利用休斯顿地区哈里斯县的住房价格来量化城市臭氧污染对社区和人口的影 响,以及房价对当地区域性环境政策的反馈。研究发现哈里斯县的房价符合一般市场规律,即 房价与房龄成负相关,与建筑面积,学区质量,交通可达性和家庭收入等变量成正相关。其次, 可达性等交通分析显示出房价与到城市中心商业区的距离成负相关,这体现出美国城市发展的 模式。另外,通过分析发现,空气污染对城市少数族裔聚集的社区具有不平衡的影响。最后,通 过对联邦环境署在该地区颁布的三个年份（1997年、2008年和2015年）的环境标准进行评估, 显示出环境政策对房价的影响：第一,政策带来的效果具有滞后性;第二,新的环境政策实施 以后,普遍对当地房价具有积极的意义。该研究首次分析了休斯顿地区的空气污染与住房市场 之间的关系,深入地探讨了当地的环境政策,同时以此为实例解释了美国城市发展与环境之间 的联系。     

香港公屋本质,公屋设计和居住实态

文章分析了香港在不同时期的公屋政策，公屋设计及居住实态。     

基于均衡价格形成机制的住宅价格变化特征研究

依据供求关系原理和住宅价格变化特征模型,探讨住宅均衡价格的形成机制与住宅实际价格的变化机理。利用我国35个大中城市2000～2004年的经济统计指标和住宅市场数据,识别出住宅均衡价格;并将实际价格变化分解成均衡价格变化、实际价格的均值回复和趋势性运动等三个组成部分,重点研究住宅实际价格与均衡价格之间的关系。研究表明:我国住宅市场存在由供求基础决定的均衡价格,城镇家庭人均可支配收入、个人住房抵押贷款利率水平、城镇人均居住面积、非农人口数等需求因素,以及供给成本、城市化水平和城市建成区面积等供给因素对住宅均衡价格存在显著影响;住宅实际价格的变化受到均衡价格变化的显著影响;住宅实际价格可通过自我调整回复到均衡价格水平,并存在缓慢上涨的趋势。     

Differential community effects on perception and use of urban greenspaces

The social profiles of residential communities exert differential effects on expectations and demands on urban greenspaces. We studied the diversity of public perception towards urban greenspaces in compact urban Hong Kong. Random household samples were selected from four dominant residential communities: old-core public housing (OP), old-core residential (OR), suburban residential (SR), and new-town public housing (NP). They denote gradations in income, housing quality, physical and social milieu, and development age. Face-to-face interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire. Residents’ attitude, visiting pattern, greenspace preference, and assessment of neighborhood quality were investigated. SR presented distinctive results in comparison with others. The moderate differences between the remaining three communities were mainly linked to local traits in park environs. OP more emphasized the function of communal places for neighborly interactions associated with better social relationship of an older population. Parks in OR were the more frequently visited, even though its residents were sensitive to the negative impacts of urban greenspaces, which was related to urban blight in the environs. SR respondents highly appreciated greenspaces as pleasant settings for family activities and aesthetic enjoyment. NP residents were less frequent visitors despite generous park provision, due to the youthful population, weak social cohesion, and limited integration of new migrants. Community quality factors such as neighborhood relationship and urban density influenced the perception. Social qualities were more important than the physical aspects of parks in influencing visitorship. The findings suggest future research to deepen understanding of public perception towards urban greenspaces to inform park design.     

Value of scenic views: Hedonic assessment of private housing in Hong Kong

Diverse landscape elements in cities are valued differently by residents. People are willing to pay a premium for attractive views. This study assessed the amenity value of two major types of natural landscape in Hong Kong: harbor and mountain. The study was based on 1474 transactions in 2005 and 2006 in 18 private housing estates in a residential district. The high-rise and high-density blocks were typical for middle-income housing in the city. The hedonic pricing method was employed to estimate the proportional share of various views and factors on transaction prices. Only harbor view was preferred and reflected in housing value. A broad harbor view could increase the value of an apartment by 2.97%, equivalent to US$ 15,173. Even a confined harbor view could lift price by 2.18% or US$ 11,137. On the contrary, a broad mountain view would depress apartment price by 6.7%, whereas a confined mountain view was statistically insignificant. Increasing distance between an apartment and a preferred natural landscape would lower transaction price. The negative perception of street view induced a price reduction by 3.7%. Building views were tolerated as an inevitable feature of the compact and vertical city. Quantifying the value of nature and scenic endowments in cities could inform policies and strategies on urban planning, development, nature conservation, and property appraisal.     

Land‐use planning in ‘one country,two systems’: Hong Kong,Guangzhou and Shenzhen

This paper studies the political economy of urban governance and land‐use planning mechanisms in the ‘one country, two systems’ of mainland China and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). It is argued that the market economy of Hong Kong had, over the years as a British colony, established an efficiently‐run regulatory system of land‐use planning. The current land‐use planning mechanisms are biased toward economic growth as a result of its executive‐government‐led and business‐interests‐dominated political structure. The challenge for Hong Kong as a relatively autonomous SAR, therefore, is to incorporate the social and environmental dimensions in planning for territorial development within a wider regional context as a result of economic and political integration with China. In mainland China, the reforming socialist planned economy has now embraced privately and foreign‐owned enterprises though the Communist Party and the government have retained strong political control. A ‘dual’ land‐use development system operates under an economic‐growth‐oriented development strategy. On one hand, government authorities who are land owners, land managers, and the largest land users as they own most of the economic enterprises, may not, for various reasons, follow the planning intentions when formally allocating land for development projects. On the other hand, illegal construction and land uses are widespread, suggesting that the formal land‐use planning system is ineffective, if not irrelevant, in controlling development. Part of the explanation lies in the absence of a genuine land market where legitimate persons with land‐use rights can buy and sell land within a planning framework generally agreed by the community. Unless Chinese cities strive to establish formal land‐use planning processes to prepare plans with the participation of various actors to reflect their needs, and establish urban planning mechanisms that have teeth in controlling development, urban planning will continue to be marginal in local governance.     

高密度城市形态与城市交通--以香港城市发展为例

随着中国城市化进程的加快，高密度城市中的交通已经成为亟需研究的重要课题。作为一个典型的高密度城市，香港以其高效率的城市交通系统，为全球许多有着相似情况的城市提供了成功的经验。详细考察了香港城市形态与城市交通的发展历程，指出城市形态与城市交通之间和谐适应的关系，是形成城市活力的必要条件。     

Defining the environmental performance of neighbourhoods in high-density cities

ABSTRACT

The regenerative design framework aims to ‘engage a broader range of possibilities by moving beyond the immediate building and site boundaries’. It implies that the environmental performance of buildings requires a revised definition so that it considers not only the building itself, but also its contribution beyond its own boundary, i.e. neighbourhoods. In high-density cities, outdoor spaces are culturally considered as the extension of one’s living spaces. The environmental performance of neighbourhoods is particularly important to the health and wellbeing of urban inhabitants. This paper aims to define the environmental performance of neighbourhoods in high-density urban context based on the experience acquired in previous studies in Hong Kong over the last 15 years. These studies cover a wide range of environmental issues including urban climate, outdoor thermal comfort, and daylighting design in high-density cities. Subsequent development of the assessment tools for environmental performance of neighbourhoods in Hong Kong is also presented. The framework of stakeholder engagement, as an integral part of the neighbourhood assessment tool, is discussed. This paper highlights the distinctive features of the environmental performance of neighbourhoods in high-density urban context and how it influences the professional practices in Hong Kong.     

高密度城市中心区的交通策略——以香港城市中心区为例

香港是土地资源少、人口密度大的代表城市,面对城市中心区高密度的发展环境,香港采取一系列措施以解决交通问题,并取得了成效。     

混合式住区对中国大都市住房建设的启示

鉴于中国大都市中日益显著的居住隔离现象,对于住房选择的干预越来越依赖市场,而现有住房政策、土地政策和城市规划忽视了住房和社区的社会意义,应当在住房发展中让不同收入阶层、不同类型家庭在社区和邻里层面混合居住,享有同等的社会资源,使社会各阶层在城市空间层面上处于相对平衡的状态,减轻由于居住空间分异所引发的社会问题。这一理想的实现必须依靠适度正确的制度干预。通过介绍美国、香港等国家和城市混合式住区发展的经验,引发更多从政策和实践等各个层面对中国大都市住房建设的探索。     

New Estimates of the Demand for Urban Green Space: Implications for Valuing the Environmental Benefits of Boston's Big Dig Project

Abstract Parks and open spaces enhance the quality of life in urban areas. Over the last 15 years, the city of Boston has sponsored the most expensive urban infrastructure project in history. This project relocates an elevated highway underground and creates urban parks, increasing the city's green space. The study estimates the economic benefits of proximity to parks in Boston, Massachusetts, based on hedonic pricing methods. Using Boston's land use and assessed property price data, it is determined that proximity to urban open space has positive impacts on property values, while proximity to highways has negative impacts on property prices. Based on this observation, it is expected that the spatial alteration will cause a significant increase in nearby property prices.     

The Changing Planning Concept of Postwar Hong Kong:Contract,Welfare,and Space

Accommodating high-density economic activities,the cellular urban structure of Hong Kong has a certain origin in the New Town Movement of post-war Europe.In the post-war era,the planning practice of Hong Kong,as a response to a series of urban crises,transformed the European new town ideal into a unique structure of Asian vertical"Garden City."This paper starts with the refl ection on the relationship between planning system and planning theory,thereby revisiting the"welfare state"tradition hidden behind the cityscape of Hong Kong.Through a brief review of the history of planning exchanges between Hong Kong and mainland cities like Shenzhen,it points out that the"collectivism"tradition was somehow overlooked in the urban design guidelines of mainland cities.     

Impacts of urban environmental elements on residential housing prices in Guangzhou (China)

The amenity value provided by urban green spaces, water bodies and good environmental quality is difficult to assess and incorporate into urban planning and development. Developers and governments in China hitherto have seldom objectively factored these attributes into property pricing and associated decisions. The hedonic pricing method offers an appropriate approach to gauge such external benefits which contribute to real-estate transaction prices. This study explored the impacts of key environmental elements with a bearing on residential housing value in Guangzhou, including window orientation, green-space view, floor height, proximity to wooded areas and water bodies, and exposure to traffic noise. Four large private housing estates composed of multi-storied blocks with similar design and price bracket, catering to the mass property market, were sampled. Transaction price data and structural attributes of 652 dwelling units were acquired directly from developers. Data on environmental attributes were collected in the field. Two functional hedonic pricing method models, linear and semi-log, were constructed. The semi-log model offered comparatively stronger explanatory power and more reliable estimation. High floor on the multi-storey tenement blocks contributed implicitly 9.2% to the selling price. View of green spaces and proximity to water bodies raised housing price, contributing notably at 7.1% and 13.2%, respectively. Windows with a southern orientation with or without complementary eastern or northern views added 1% to the price. Proximity to nearby wooded area without public access was not significant, expressing the pragmatic mindset in the hedonic behavior. Exposure to traffic noise did not influence willingness-to-pay, implying tolerance of the chronic environmental nuisance in the compact city. The study demonstrates that hedonic pricing method could be applied in the Chinese context with an increasingly expanding and privatized property market. It could inform the decisions of policy makers and property developers concerning land selling and buying, land conversion, property development, urban nature conservation, and design of ecological green-space networks.     

The impact of urban renewal on neighborhood housing prices in Taipei: an application of the difference-in-difference method

This study examined the impact of urban renewal delineation time on housing prices in neighborhoods undergoing urban renewal. More specifically, the study used the difference-in-difference method to assess successful housing transactions in Taipei City from 2008 to 2011. According to the empirical results, before the implementation of urban renewal, the average housing price in the areas that later underwent urban renewal (the treatment group) was lower than that in neighborhoods that did not undergo urban renewal (the control group) by 11,180 NTD. After the urban renewal projects were publicly announced, the price per ping of the control group was increased by 148,800 NTD, while the price per ping of the treatment group was increased by 163,680 NTD. This means that the housing prices per ping in the urban renewal areas were increased by 14,880 NTD more than the housing prices per ping in the areas not affected by urban renewal after the urban renewal projects were publicly announced. This increase, then, indicates the value added after implementation of urban renewal delineation time on houses in the neighborhood. Therefore, research into the impact of urban renewal on housing prices should be concerned not only with the neighborhood factors or time factors of urban renewal delineation. Rather, the two types of factors should be considered at the same time.