Association of cyclists’ age and sex with risk of involvement in a crash before and after adjustment for cycling exposure

This study aimed to estimate the association of cyclists’ age and sex with the risk of being involved in a crash with and without adjustment for their amount of exposure. We used the distribution of the entire population and cyclists (total and non-responsible) involved in road crashes in Spain between 1993 and 2009 held by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics and the Spanish General Traffic Directorate to calculate rates of exposure and involvement in a crash. Males aged 45–49 years were used as the reference category to obtain exposure rate ratios (ERR) and unadjusted crash rate ratios (URR). We then used these values in decomposition analysis to calculate crash rate ratios adjusted for exposure (ARR). The pattern of ARR was substantially different from URR. In both sexes the highest values were observed in the youngest age groups, and the values decreased as age increased except for a slight increase in the oldest age groups. In males, a slight increase in the lowest and highest age categories was observed for crashes resulting in severe injury or death, and a decrease was observed for the youngest cyclists who were wearing a helmet. The large differences between age and sex groups in the risk of involvement in a cycling crash are strongly dependent on differences in their exposure rates. Taking exposure rates into account, cyclists younger than 30 years and older than 65 years of age had the highest risk of being involved in a crash.     

Road crash fatality rates in France: A comparison of road user types,taking account of travel practices

Background

Travel practices are changing: bicycle and motorized two-wheeler (MTW) use are rising in some of France’s large cities. These are cheaper modes of transport and therefore attractive at a time of economic crisis, but they also allow their users to avoid traffic congestion. At the same time, active transport modes such as walking and cycling are encouraged because they are beneficial to health and reduce pollution. It is therefore important to find out more about the road crash risks of the different modes of transport. To do this, we need to take account of the number of individuals who use each, and, even better, their travel levels.

Method

We estimated the exposure-based fatality rates for road traffic crashes in France, on the basis of the ratio between the number of fatalities and exposure to road accident risk. Fatality data were obtained from the French national police database of road traffic casualties in the period 2007–2008. Exposure data was estimated from the latest national household travel survey (ENTD) which was conducted from April 2007 to April 2008. Three quantities of travel were computed for each mode of transport: (1) the number of trips, (2) the distance traveled and (3) the time spent traveling. Annual fatality rates were assessed by road user type, age and sex.

Results

The overall annual fatality rates were 6.3 per 100 million trips, 5.8 per billion kilometers traveled and 0.20 per million hours spent traveling. The fatality rates differed according to road user type, age and sex. The risk of being killed was 20 to 32 times higher for motorized two-wheeler users than for car occupants. For cyclists, the risk of being killed, both on the basis of time spent traveling and the number of trips was about 1.5 times higher than for car occupants. Risk for pedestrians compared to car occupants was similar according to time spent traveling, lower according to the number of trips and higher according to the distance traveled. People from the 17–20 and 21–29 age groups and those aged 70 and over had the highest rates. Males had higher rates than females, by a factor of between 2 and 3.

Conclusion

When exposure is taken into account, the risks for motorized two-wheeler users are extremely high compared to other types of road user. This disparity can be explained by the combination of speed and a lack of protection (except for helmets). The differential is so great that prevention measures could probably not eliminate it. The question that arises is as follows: with regard to public health, should not the use of MTW, or at least of motorcycles, be deterred? The difference between the fatality risk of cyclists and of car occupants is much smaller (1.5 times higher); besides, there is much room for improvements in cyclist safety, for instance by increasing the use of helmets and conspicuity equipment. Traffic calming could also benefit cyclists, pedestrians and perhaps moped users.     

Comparison of two methods to assess the effect of age and sex on the risk of car crashes

Background

This study was designed to compare two methods (direct measurement of exposure and quasi-induced exposure) for assessing the effect of age and sex on the risk of being involved in a car crash in Spain.

Methods

Spanish crash rates (per 10,000,000 driver-km) for age and sex groups of drivers aged 18–64 years old were obtained for 2004–2007, using information from the Spanish General Traffic Office (census of reported car crashes) and the Spanish Household Survey on Alcohol and Drugs (estimate of the mean km driven for each car driver). The rate ratios estimated by direct exposure estimates were compared to those obtained with the quasi-induced exposure method, which compares the age and sex of responsible and non-responsible drivers involved in the same clean collision (in which only one of the drivers committed a driving infraction).

Results

Both methods detected an increased risk of involvement in a crash for the youngest (18–20 years) and the oldest drivers (60–64 years), compared to middle-aged drivers (45–49 years). However, the rate ratios obtained with the quasi-induced method for the youngest group (2.0 for men, 1.6 for women) were much lower than those obtained with crash rates (13.4 for men, 5.7 for women). Both methods detected a similar increase in the risk of involvement of male drivers compared to women in the youngest age group. This excess risk for men was maintained with increasing age up to 45–49 years when the quasi-induced method was used. However, direct comparisons of crash rates revealed an increased risk of involvement in women compared to men of the same age from 25–29 years onward.

Conclusions

Both direct measurement of driving exposure and the quasi-induced exposure method detected some well-known patterns of risk associated with driver's age and sex. However, factors that could explain important differences between the two methods deserve attention, especially those related with the excess risk for the youngest drivers as well as sex-related risk.     

Injury incidence rates of cyclists compared to pedestrians,car occupants and powered two-wheeler riders,using a medical registry and mobility data,Rhône County,France

Purpose

In France, the bicycle's modal share is stabilizing after a decline; in some of France's major cities, it has even increased since the 1990s. It is hence relevant to improve the knowledge of the injury risk associated with cycling, compared with other means of transport such as car, walking and powered two-wheeler (PTW) riding.

Methods

The injury incidence rates were estimated by the ratio between accident data and mobility (exposure) data. Two accident data sources were used: police data and hospital-based data (outpatients and inpatients) from the Rhône road trauma Registry. This provides four injury categories: all-injury, hospitalization, serious-injury and fatal-injury. Exposure data were estimated from a regional household travel survey (RTS), using three measures of mobility: number of trips, distance traveled and time spent traveling. The survey was carried out from November 2005 to April 2006, on weekdays, outside school and public holidays; this seasonality was corrected using the 2007–2008 national household travel survey (NTS) that covered an entire year. Only information involving accidents and trips in, and residents of, the Rhône County (1.6 million inhabitants, including the city Lyon) were included in our study. Trends of injury rates were also evaluated in Greater Lyon, using previous travel surveys.

Results

The PTW riders had the highest all-injury, hospitalization, serious-injury and fatal-injury rates, followed by cyclists, and lastly by pedestrians and car occupants. The rates between men and women seemed similar among pedestrians and among car occupants. For car occupants, pedestrians and cyclists, the age group 18–25 years had higher all-injury rate compared with the age group 25–65 years. On the contrary, the age group ≥65 years seemed to have higher hospitalization and serious-injury rates, compared with the age group 25–65 years. For cyclists, the injury rates seemed higher in non-dense areas than in dense areas. Between 1996–1997 and 2005–2006 and with regards to time spent traveling, the all-injury, serious-injury and fatal-injury rates seemed to have decreased for car occupants and cyclists.

Conclusion

The higher risk for PTW riders is confirmed and quantified; it is very high. Decrease in injury rates seems more marked for cyclists; this may indicate the “safety in numbers” effect. Countermeasures for improving road safety could be implemented, especially for vulnerable road user types. However, they will not be sufficient to fill in the gap between the much higher risk for PTW riders and that of car occupants. Exposure-based injury rates can be a tool for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of policies and programs, and for comparisons between countries.     

Gender differences in road traffic injury rate using time travelled as a measure of exposure

There is no consensus on whether the risk of road traffic injury is higher among men or among women. Comparison between studies is difficult mainly due to the different exposure measures used to estimate the risk. The measures of exposure to the risk of road traffic injury should be people's mobility measures, but frequently authors use other measures such population or vehicles mobility. We compare road traffic injury risk in men and women, by age, mode of transport and severity, using the time people spend travelling as the exposure measure, in Catalonia for the period 2004–2008. This is a cross-sectional study including all residents aged over 3 years. The road traffic injury rate was calculated using the number of people injured, from the Register of Accidents and Victims of the National Traffic Authority as numerator, and the person-hours travelled, from the 2006 Daily Mobility Survey carried out by the Catalan regional government, as denominator. Sex and age specific rates by mode of transport and severity were calculated, and Poisson regression models were fitted. Among child pedestrians and young drivers, males present higher risk of slight and severe injury, and in the oldest groups women present higher risk. The death rate is always higher in men. There exists interaction between sex and age in road traffic injury risk. Therefore, injury risk is higher among men in some age groups, and among women in other groups, but these age groups vary depending on mode of transport and severity.     

Critical factors in fatal collisions of adult cyclists with automobiles

This article evaluates, by means of multivariate regression, critical factors influencing the collisions of motor vehicles with adult (over 17 years) cyclists that result in fatal injury of cyclists. The analysis is based on the database of the Traffic Police of Czech Republic from the time period 1995–2007. The results suggest that the most consequential categories of factors under study are: inappropriate driving speed of automobile; the head-on crash; and night-time traffic in places without streetlights. The cyclists’ faults are of most serious consequence on crossroads when cyclists deny the right of way. Males are more likely to suffer a fatal injury due to a collision with a car than females. The most vulnerable age group are cyclists above 65 years. A fatal injury of a cyclist is more often driver's fault than cyclist's (598 vs. 370).In order to reduce the fatal risk, it is recommended to separate the road traffic of motor vehicles from bicyclists in critical road-sections; or, at least, to reduce speed limits there.     

Risk factors for causing road crashes involving cyclists: An application of a quasi-induced exposure method

A quasi-induced exposure approach was applied to the Spanish Register of Traffic Crashes to identify driver- and vehicle-related factors associated with the risk of causing a road crash involving a cyclist in Spain from 1993 to 2009. We analyzed 19,007 collisions between a bicycle and another vehicle in which only one of the drivers committed an infraction, and 13,540 records that included the group of non-infractor cyclists in the above collisions plus cyclists involved in single-bicycle crashes. Adjusted odds ratios were calculated for being responsible for each type of crash for each factor considered. Age from 10 to 19 years, male sex, alcohol or drug consumption and non-helmet use were cyclist-related variables associated with a higher risk of crash, whereas cycling more than 1 h increased only the risk of single crashes. Bicycles with brake defects and ridden by two occupants were also at higher risk of involvement in a crash, whereas light defects were associated only with collisions with another vehicle. For drivers of the other vehicle, age more than 60 years, alcohol, not using safety devices and nonprofessional drivers were at higher risk. The risk of colliding with a bicycle was higher for mopeds than for passenger cars.     

Relative injury severity among vulnerable non-motorised road users: Comparative analysis of injury arising from bicycle-motor vehicle and bicycle-pedestrian collisions

With the expansion of bicycle usage and limited funding and/or space for segregated pedestrian and bicycle paths, there is a need for traffic, road design and local government engineers to decide if it is more appropriate for space to be shared between either cyclists and pedestrians, or between cars and cyclists, and what restrictions need to be applied in such circumstances. To provide knowledge to aid engineers and policy makers in making these decisions, this study explored death and morbidity data for the state of New South Wales, Australia to examine rates and severity of injury arising from collisions between pedestrians and cyclists, and between cyclists and motor vehicles (MVs).An analysis of the severity of hospitalised injuries was conducted using International Classification of Diseases, Version 10, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) diagnosis-based Injury Severity Score (ICISS) and the Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) was used to measure burden of injury arising from collisions resulting in death or hospitalisation. The greatest burden of injury in NSW, for the studied collision mechanisms, is for cyclists who are injured in collisions with motor vehicles. Collisions between cyclists and pedestrians also result in significant injuries. For all collision mechanisms, the odds of serious injury on admission are greater for the elderly than for those in other age groups. The significant burden of injury arising from collisions of cyclists and MVs needs to be addressed. However in the absence of appropriate controls, increasing the opportunity for conflict between cyclists and pedestrians (through an increase in shared spaces for these users) may shift the burden of injury from cyclists to pedestrians, in particular, older pedestrians.     

Trends in mortality due to motor vehicle traffic accident injuries between 1987 and 2011 in a Spanish region (Comunitat Valenciana)

Objective

To analyse the time evolution of the rates of mortality due to motor vehicle traffic accidents (MVTA) injuries that occurred among the general population of Comunitat Valenciana between 1987 and 2011, as well as to identify trend changes by sex and age group.

Methods

An observational study of annual mortality trends between 1987 and 2011. We studied all deaths due to MVTA injuries that occurred during this period of time among the non-institutionalised population residing in Comunitat Valenciana (a Spanish Mediterranean region that had a population of 5,117,190 inhabitants in 2011). The rates of mortality due to MVTA injuries were calculated for each sex and year studied. These rates were standardised by age for the total population and for specific age groups using the direct method (age-standardised rate – ASR). Joinpoint regression models were used in order to detect significant trend changes. Additionally, the annual percentage change (APC) of the ASRs was calculated for each trend segment, which is reflected in statistically significant joinpoints.

Results

For all ages, ASRs decrease greatly in both men and women (70% decrease between 1990 and 2011). In 1990 and 2011, men have rates of 36.5 and 5.2 per 100,000 men/year, respectively. In the same years, women have rates of 8.0 and 0.9 per 100,000 women/year, respectively. This decrease reaches up to 90% in the age group 15–34 years in both men and women. ASR ratios for men and women increased over time for all ages: this ratio was 3.9 in 1987; 4.6 in 1990; and 5.8 in 2011. For both men and women, there is a first significant segment (p < 0.05) with an increasing trend between 1987 and 1989–1990. After 1990, there are 3 segments with a significant decreasing APC (1990–1993, 1993–2005 and 2005–2011, in the case of men; and 1989–1996, 1999–2007 and 2007–2011, in the case of women).

Conclusion

The risk of death due to motor vehicle traffic accidents injuries has decreased significantly, especially in the case of women, for the last 25 years in Comunitat Valenciana, mainly as of 2006. This may be a consequence of the road-safety measures that have been implemented in Spain and in Comunitat Valenciana since 2004. The economic crisis that this country has undergone since 2008 may have also been a contributing factor to this decrease.Despite the decrease, ASR ratios for men and women increased over time and it is still a high-risk cause of death among young men. It is thus important that the measures that helped decrease the risk of death are maintained and improved over time.     

The role of exposure on differences in driver death rates by gender and age: Results of a quasi-induced method on crash data in Spain

AimPart of the differences by age and gender in driver death rates from traffic injuries depends on the amount of exposure (km/year travelled). Unfortunately, direct indicators of exposure are not available in many countries. Our aim was to compare the age and gender differences in death rates with and without adjustment by exposure using a quasi-induced exposure approach in Spain, during 2004–2012.MethodsCrude and adjusted death rate ratios (CDRR and ADRR, respectively) were calculated for each age and gender group. To obtain the latter estimates, in accordance with quasi-exposure reasoning, the number of registered drivers was replaced by the number of non-infractor drivers, passively involved in collisions with another vehicle whose driver committed an infraction. 18–29 years and female drivers were chosen as the reference categories for age and gender.ResultsStriking differences were found between CDRR and ADRR estimates. When CDRR were estimated, we found the highest traffic mortality among the youngest drivers, except for females in non-urban roads. ADRR however showed the highest mortality among the oldest groups, especially in females, peaking among drivers >74 years in all types of roads. Regarding differences by gender, both estimates revealed higher traffic mortality in males, although the differences were much smaller when using ADRR. CDRR and ADRR for males tended to converge as age increased.ConclusionsDeath risk from traffic injuries among drivers is clearly influenced by the amount of exposure. These findings further emphasize the need to obtain direct traffic exposure estimates by subgroups of drivers.     

Urban-rural differences in motor vehicle crash fatality and hospitalization rates among children and youth

This population-based study examined motor vehicle crash hospitalization rates and death rates among children and youth in rural and urban areas of the province of Alberta, Canada. Using police report data (1997-2002, inclusive), average annual motor vehicle crash hospitalization and death rates among those 0-19 years of age were calculated for rural and urban regions. Across all age and sex strata examined, both the hospitalization and the fatality rates were significantly higher in rural compared with urban regions. After adjusting for age, sex and calendar year, the relative risk of a motor vehicle crash hospitalization (rural versus urban) was 3.0 (95% CI: 2.8, 3.2). After adjusting for age, sex and calendar year, the relative risk of a motor vehicle crash fatality was 5.4 (95% CI: 4.2, 6.9). Motor vehicle crash injury hospitalization and fatality rates among children and youth in the province of Alberta are considerably higher in rural areas compared with urban areas. There is a need to identify social, demographic and environmental driving hazards associated with the rural environment.     

Accident rates amongst regular bicycle riders in Tasmania,Australia

Purpose

To characterise the demographics, cycling habits and accident rates of adult cyclists in Tasmania.

Methods

Volunteers ≥18 years of age who had cycled at least once/week over the previous month provided information on demographics; cycling experience; bicycles owned; hours/km/trips cycled per week; cycling purpose; protective equipment used; and major (required third-party medical treatment or resulted ≥1 day off work) or minor (interfered with individuals’ regular daily activities and/or caused financial costs) accidents while cycling.

Results

Over 8-months, 136 cyclists (70.6% male) completed the telephone survey. Mean (standard deviation) age was 45.4 (12.1) years with 17.1 (11.4) years of cycling experience. In the week prior to interview, cyclists averaged 6.6 trips/week (totalling 105.7 km or 5.0 h). The most common reason for cycling was commuting/transport (34% of trips), followed by training/health/fitness (28%). The incidence of major and minor cycling accidents was 1.6 (95% CI 1.1–2.0) and 3.7 (2.3–5.0) per 100,000 km, respectively. Male sex was associated with a significantly lower minor accident risk (incidence rate ratio = 0.34, p = 0.01). Mountain biking was associated with a significantly higher risk of minor accident compared with road or racing, touring, and city or commuting biking (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Physical activity of regular cyclists’ exceeds the level recommended for maintenance of health and wellbeing; cyclists also contributed substantially to the local economy. Accident rates are higher in this sample than previously reported in Tasmania and internationally. Mountain biking was associated with higher risks of both major and minor accidents compared to road/racing bike riding.     

Safety effects of permanent running lights for bicycles: A controlled experiment

Making the use of daytime running lights mandatory for motor vehicles is generally documented to have had a positive impact upon traffic safety. Improving traffic safety for bicyclists is a focal point in the road traffic safety work in Denmark. In 2004 and 2005 a controlled experiment including 3845 cyclists was carried out in Odense, Denmark in order to examine, if permanent running lights mounted to bicycles would improve traffic safety for cyclists. The permanent running lights were mounted to 1845 bicycles and the accident rate was recorded through 12 months for this treatment group and 2000 other bicyclists, the latter serving as a control group without bicycle running lights. The safety effect of the running lights is analysed by comparing incidence rates – number of bicycle accidents recorded per man-month – for the treatment group and the control group. The incidence rate, including all recorded bicycle accidents with personal injury to the participating cyclist, is 19% lower for cyclists with permanent running lights mounted; indicating that the permanent bicycle running light significantly improves traffic safety for cyclists. The study shows that use of permanent bicycle running lights reduces the occurrence of multiparty accidents involving cyclists significantly. In the study the bicycle accidents were recorded trough self-reporting on the Internet. Possible shortcomings and problems related to this accident recording are discussed and analysed.     

Risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity in China

With the recent economic boom in China, vehicle volume and the number of traffic accident fatalities have become the highest in the world. Meanwhile, traffic accidents have become the leading cause of death in China. Systematically analyzing road safety data from different perspectives and applying empirical methods/implementing proper measures to reduce the fatality rate will be an urgent and challenging task for China in the coming years. In this study, we analyze the traffic accident data for the period 2006–2010 in Guangdong Province, China. These data, extracted from the Traffic Management Sector-Specific Incident Case Data Report, are the only officially available and reliable source of traffic accident data (with a sample size >7000 per year). In particular, we focus on two outcome measures: traffic violations and accident severity. Human, vehicle, road and environmental risk factors are considered. First, the results establish the role of traffic violations as one of the major risks threatening road safety. An immediate implication is: if the traffic violation rate could be reduced or controlled successfully, then the rate of serious injuries and fatalities would be reduced accordingly. Second, specific risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity are determined. Accordingly, to reduce traffic accident incidence and fatality rates, measures such as traffic regulations and legislation—targeting different vehicle types/driver groups with respect to the various human, vehicle and environment risk factors—are needed. Such measures could include road safety programs for targeted driver groups, focused enforcement of traffic regulations and road/transport facility improvements. Data analysis results arising from this study will shed lights on the development of similar (adjusted) measures to reduce traffic violations and/or accident fatalities and injuries, and to promote road safety in other regions.     

Risk factors for severe injury in cyclists involved in traffic crashes in Victoria,Australia

This study examines the impact of cyclist, road and crash characteristics on the injury severity of cyclists involved in traffic crashes reported to the police in Victoria, Australia between 2004 and 2008. Logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify predictors of severe injury (serious injury and fatality) in cyclist crashes reported to the police. There were 6432 cyclist crashes reported to the police in Victoria between 2004 and 2008 with 2181 (33.9%) resulting in severe injury of the cyclist involved. The multivariate analysis found that factors that increase the risk of severe injury in cyclists involved in traffic crashes were age (50 years and older), not wearing a helmet, riding in the dark on unlit roads, riding on roads zoned 70 km/h or above, on curved sections of the road, in rural locations and being involved in head-on collisions as well as off path crashes, which include losing control of vehicle, and on path crashes which include striking the door of a parked vehicle. While this study did not test effectiveness of preventative measures, policy makers should consider implementation of programs that address these risk factors including helmet programs and environmental modifications such as speed reduction on roads that are frequented by cyclists.     

The association of age, sex and helmet use with the risk of death for occupants of two-wheeled motor vehicles involved in traffic crashes in Spain

Background

This study was designed to separate the association of age, sex and helmet use with the risk of death for occupants of two-wheeled motor vehicles (TWMV) involved in crashes into its two theoretical components: severity of the crash and occupant resilience.

Methods

We analyzed the retrospective cohort comprising all 48 016 pairs of drivers and passengers aged 14 years or more in TWMV involved in crashes with victims in Spain from 1993 to 2007 recorded in the Spanish traffic crash registry. The outcome (death or survival), age, sex and helmet use was known for both occupants. Adjusted relative risks (RR) for the association of age, sex and helmet with the risk of death were calculated with Poisson regression models.

Results

Each 1-year increase in age was related with a 3% increase in the risk of death related with lower resilience. The severity-dependent RR of death was 1.84 for male sex and 0.86 for non-helmet use, and the resilience-dependent RR was 0.72 and 2.53, respectively.

Conclusions

The direction and magnitude of the association between age, sex and helmet use and the risk of death of an occupant of a TWMV involved in a crash changed depending on which component of risk was considered: crash severity or occupant resilience. Specifically, female sex and non-helmet use seemed to be associated with crashes of lower severity, but together with increased age they were also related with lower resilience to the energy released in the crash, and therefore with a higher risk of death after adjustment for crash severity. This should be taken into account when assessing the association of individual factors with the risk of death after a crash.     

Prediction of traffic fatalities and prospects for mobility becoming sustainable-safe

The macroscopic trend of road traffic fatalities in any motorized country is described and predicted by the product of rather well fitting functions of time for the exponential decay of fatality risk per unit of traffic volume and the S-shaped Gompertz function of traffic volume growth. This product defines a single-peaked development of road traffic deaths, where its peak reaches earlier the sooner and faster a nation or region motorizes massively. Since in developing countries long series of traffic volume data are absent, another model for the fit and prediction of road traffic fatalities for developing countries is used, based on the relationships of income level per capita with road traffic mortality. Also this model implies that at some point in time road traffic deaths will start declining for ever, also worldwide. After empirically derived corrections for missing or incomplete data and police under-reporting, it is estimated that 1·2 million deaths and almost 8 million serious injuries are caused by road traffic worldwide in 2000. Using realistic income level predictions the new income-dependent model predicts markedly later and higher fatality peaks than the verified time-dependent model. It might be assumed that the developing countries could learn faster to increase their road safety by knowledge transfer from developed countries. Four prediction scenarios are specified for modified income-dependent models of road traffic death and serious injury developments up to 2050. Depending on the scenario the world total of road fatalities begins to reduce soon or only after 2035 with a global peak of about 1·8 million road traffic deaths, where the national fatality reduction starts later the lower the national income per capita is. Without the potentially achievable learning scenario the road fatality reductions in developed countries may not be enough to compensate the road fatality increases in developing countries, while road fatality increases may even occur after 2060 in countries with the lowest levels of income per capita.     

Are road traffic crash fatality rates converging among OECD countries?

This article examines the trends of road traffic crash (RTC) fatality rates in OECD countries over the past four decades. Based on recent developments in the economic growth literature we propose and test the hypothesis that RTC fatality rates initially increase with economic development, peak, and then gradually decrease. The theory predicts that, as a result, the RTC fatality rates of different countries will tend to converge over time. Our results for the period 1961–2007 reveal no evidence of the convergence of RTC fatality rates across the OECD as a whole for that time period. Nevertheless, there is evidence of convergence among sub-groups of countries. This evidence may assist policymakers as an additional way of benchmarking their country's performance against that of its peers and to identify the next-closest peer in country sub-groups with superior road safety performance.     

Road traffic accidents in the United Arab Emirates: trends of morbidity and mortality during 1977-1998

High rates of serious road traffic accidents (RTAs) have been reported for several Arabian Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE). in recent years. This study aims to describe quantitatively the morbidity and mortality from RTAs in the UAE, to identify their trends during the period 1977-1998, to compare the results with those of developed countries, and to evaluate the information available on possible causes with a view to identifying the most useful direction for future research. Data were obtained from UAE's police and health sources and, for international comparison, from WHO Statistics reports and the published literature. Overall and cause-specific fatality and injury rates of RTAs were calculated. Estimates of trends were achieved by using linear regression. The characteristics of road users injured or killed were also analysed. The results revealed that during the period 1977-1998, the rates of RTAs per 100,000 population and per 100,000 motor vehicles declined in the UAE by a trend component of -56.3 (P < 0.001: R2 = 0.69) and -521.8 (P<0.001; R2=0.92), respectively. RTA fatality and injury rates based on the same denominators also declined by -1.1 (P<0.001; R2 = 0.56) and -13.3 (P < 0.001; R2 = 0.47); and by -3.8 (P < 0.02; R2 = 0.23) and - 90.0 (P < 0.001; R2 = 0.59), respectively. Paradoxically, however, except for a short period (1977-1985), a steady increase in the risk of injury and death in each RTA accompanied these declines. Between 1985 and 1998 the severity rate (the ratio of fatalities and injuries per 1,000 RTAs) more than tripled in the UAE. The UAE's rates were high when compared with a number of selected countries. The cause for the increasing severity of RTAs is not clear but the most likely cause could lie in speeding, careless driving, the changing vehicle mix on the roads and the standard of immediate care available for victims. Further investigation is essential and will require close collaboration between police and health authorities.