Lead in Lake Michigan and Green Bay surficial sediments

Sediment samples were collected in 1987–1990 from Green Bay and in 1994–1996 from Lake Michigan. Surficial sediments (0–1 cm) from both locations were analyzed for lead for the purpose of describing the horizontal variation of lead in 1994–1996 Lake Michigan and 1987–1990 Green Bay sediments, estimating lead fluxes to surficial sediments, and comparing results to earlier studies. With Lake Michigan concentrations ranging from below the method detection limit to 180 μg/g, the surficial sediments had mean and median lead concentrations of 70 μg/g and 64 μg/g, respectively. Lead concentrations in Green Bay surficial sediments were similar to those in Lake Michigan and ranged between the method detection limit and 160 μg/g. For the bay, mean and median concentrations were 58 and 59 μg/g, respectively. Surficial lead concentrations were highest in the Southern, Waukegan, and Grand Haven basins of Lake Michigan and in the central region of Green Bay in the vicinity of Chambers Island. For Lake Michigan and Green Bay, dated sediment cores illustrate the decline in lead concentrations during the last 30 and 10 years, respectively. Lead fluxes ranged between < 0.049 and 7.2 μg/cm²/yr for Green Bay and between 0.47 and 20 μg/cm²/yr for Lake Michigan. Lead fluxes to Lake Michigan were lower than those reported for 1972. These are the most comprehensive fluxes of lead to Lake Michigan and Green Bay surficial sediments reported to date.     

Evidence of persistent,recurring summertime hypoxia in Green Bay,Lake Michigan

Six years (2009–2015) of temperature and dissolved oxygen profile data show hypoxic conditions are common in the bottom waters of southern Green Bay, Lake Michigan during the summer. Depleted oxygen concentrations (<5?mg?L^?1) affect nearly 70% of the 38 stations sampled representing an area of ~500–600?km². Stratification typically lasts 2+?months, from late June to early September, and some stations exhibit bottom water hypoxia (<2?mg?L^?1) at a frequency of nearly 25% when sampled during this period. A monitoring program initiated in 1986 by the Green Bay Metropolitan Sewerage District has provided a 23?year, recreational season record (May–September) of continuous (15?min interval) in situ bottom water oxygen and temperature measurements at the Entrance Light station of the Green Bay navigational channel. The duration of the hypoxic season ranges from 2?weeks to over 3?months at this shallow 7?m offshore site. This variability likely results from a combination of thermal stratification, oxygen consumption in deeper waters of the bay, and physical forcing mechanisms that drive cool, oxygen depleted, bottom waters on a southerly trajectory across this sensor. These data suggest the duration of hypoxic conditions may have increased during the stratified season in recent years. Hypoxia in the bay would also appear to be sensitive to relatively small changes in these forces, particularly changes in organic carbon loading and the duration of stratification.     

Status and trends of the Asian clam (Corbicula fluminea) in the lower Fox River and Green Bay

In the upper Great Lakes region, survival and population growth of the non-indigenous Asian clam Corbicula fluminea has been limited by cold climates that cause severe overwinter mortality. At these northern latitudes, Asian clam populations are often limited to thermal refugia – particularly warmwater discharges from industrial facilities. Several such facilities exist in the lower Fox River in Green Bay. Asian clams were first documented in the lower Fox River in 1999 and were extensively surveyed near the river mouth in 2011, but the few individuals found were restricted to the warmwater discharge from the Pulliam Power Plant. We performed a follow-up survey during 2017 to re-assess the population status of Asian clams in the lower Fox River at four industrial discharges, including the Pulliam Power Plant. We found more widespread evidence of Asian clams throughout the lower Fox River than previous surveys, but only one live individual was captured. We suspect that the back-to-back severe winters of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 caused widespread overwinter mortality. Our investigation highlights the significant challenges for establishment of Asian clam populations in the upper Great Lakes region, and provides an example of a potential invasive species struggling to establish a viable population in a hostile climate.     

Chloride and total phosphorus budgets for Green Bay,Lake Michigan

Green Bay is an elongated freshwater embayment located in northwestern Lake Michigan. Due to its short residence time, the lower bay is heavily influenced by the Fox River's large nutrient load. The inner bay is classified as hypereutrophic and a well-defined trophic gradient is observed moving away from the Fox River towards Lake Michigan, where the bay is nearly oligotrophic. Recent chloride and total phosphorus loading estimates were used to update a chloride and total phosphorus mass-balance model for the bay for 1994–2008. The chloride model provided a means to estimate turbulent eddy diffusion within the bay and exhibited excellent agreement with observed data. The total phosphorus model agreement with observed data was generally good, with the exception of a large deviation in lower Green Bay during 1999–2004. The model was used to estimate the internal loadings necessary to account for the deviation in phosphorus concentrations. The source of the unexpected increase remains unclear, but we speculate significant internal loading due to wind-driven sediment resuspension and hypoxia-induced phosphorus diffusion was significant. These models allow needed reductions to be identified and sourced and also indicate the role internal loading may play in the Green Bay phosphorus budget.     

Survival,growth, and production of Hexagenia bilineata mayflies in fluidized sediment from lower Green Bay,Lake Michigan

Organic pollution in lower Green Bay, Lake Michigan over the past century was accompanied by the local extirpation of Hexagenia (primarily H. limbata) mayflies. Recoveries were made in other systems where population crashes had occurred (e.g., western Lake Erie); however, an active recovery does not appear to be taking place in Green Bay. Excessive primary production has caused substantial benthic organic matter accumulation resulting in a fluidized “sludge-like” substrate as the majority of the sub-littoral habitat. Fluidized substrate potentially hinders Hexagenia nymphs' abilities to construct and maintain burrows critical to their life cycles. In this study, Hexagenia bilineata nymphs were collected from an Upper Mississippi River backwater where their presence at high densities in relatively fluid sediment had been observed, and reared in oxygenated aquaria containing lower Green Bay or Upper Mississippi River sediment. Their survival, growth, secondary production, and biomass turnover were calculated for a 166 day period. Seventy-five percent of nymphs survived or metamorphosed into winged sub-imagos in lower Green Bay substrates compared to 40.6% in Upper Mississippi River substrates. Nymph dry weight more than tripled in Green Bay substrates and more than doubled on Upper Mississippi River substrates. Production was notably higher in lower Green Bay substrates. Differences in survival and production between the two treatments were statistically significant (P < 0.05), while differences in growth and biomass turnover were not (P > 0.05). Based on these results, the high fluidity of lower Green Bay substrates did not appear to hinder burrow construction or maintenance.     

Green Bay,Lake Michigan: A proving ground for Great Lakes restoration

Green Bay has sometimes been referred to as the largest freshwater “estuary” in the world. Its watershed, much of it in intensive agriculture, comprises one-third of the Lake Michigan basin and delivers one-third of the lake's total phosphorus load. At one time, the major tributary, the Fox River, was considered the most heavily industrialized river in North America, primarily from paper manufacturing. Deterioration in water quality and the loss of beneficial and ecological uses have been extensive and began well back into the last century. More recently, the bay has also become a test case for our resolve to remediate and restore ecosystems throughout the Great Lakes and elsewhere. Green Bay has stimulated a significant amount of widely relevant research on the fate and behavior of toxics, biogeochemistry, habitat, biodiversity, and ecological processes. The bay represents a true “proving ground” for adaptive restoration. Key findings of the recent summit on the Ecological and Socio-Economic Tradeoffs of Restoration in the Green Bay Ecosystem are summarized here. Foremost among recommendations of the workshop was the creation of a “Green Bay Ecosystem Simulation and Data Consortium” serving as a data clearing house, building upon the significant progress to date, and developing a modeling framework and visualization tools, furthering public outreach efforts, and ensuring a sustained growth in scientific expertise. Funding was estimated to be on the order of ~$15–20M over the next ~5?years – a modest investment relative to the value of the ecosystem and the long-term cost of inaction.     

A lakewide survey of Asian clam (Corbicula fluminea) distribution at warmwater discharges in Lake Michigan

The Asian clam Corbicula fluminea is among the most prolific aquatic invaders in the world; but in colder mid-latitude areas, like the Laurentian Great Lakes, their population expansion has likely been limited by poor overwinter survival. In these areas, Asian clams are typically found in thermal refugia like warmwater discharges from industrial facilities. We sought to identify the current extent of Asian clam populations in Lake Michigan and waters immediately adjacent to it, specifically at locations most likely to harbor overwintering populations – industrial warmwater discharges. During April–May 2017, we surveyed 17 locations around Lake Michigan. Evidence of Asian clam populations was found at four sites, though live specimens (n?=?3) were only found at the Indiana Harbor Ship Canal in East Chicago, IN. Shells or fragments of shells were found at Green Bay, WI, Waukegan, IL, and Port Sheldon, MI. Our findings indicate that although Asian clams are present in Lake Michigan, they are relatively rare, and remain isolated to a few small pockets of over-wintering habitat.     

Breeding birds and anurans of dynamic coastal wetlands in Green Bay,Lake Michigan

Breeding birds and anurans (frogs and toads) in coastal wetlands of Green Bay, Lake Michigan vary dynamically with changing water levels, habitat type, and geography. We describe species assemblages over a seven-year period (2011–2017) beginning with historic low water levels followed by an increase in average lake level of 0.85?m. In general, species richness and abundance of marsh-obligate species responded positively to increasing water levels, although several species of shallow wetlands (sandhill crane, sedge wren, swamp sparrow, and American toad) showed the opposite trend. Anuran assemblages were more diverse in the middle and upper bay, coinciding with a well-established nutrient gradient from the hypereutrophic lower bay to more oligotrophic waters of the upper bay. Three marsh-obligate bird species (black tern, sandhill crane, and sedge wren) were significantly more abundant in the middle or upper bay while sora, American coot, and common gallinule were more abundant in the eutrophic lower bay. Our findings have several important implications for conservation. Inland wetlands near the coast (including diked wetlands) might play a key ecological role by providing refugia for some species during low water years. However, the importance of shallow coastal wetlands and nearshore gradients of wetland habitat might be overlooked during low water years; when high water returns, these areas can become extremely productive and species-rich.     

Influence of river plumes on the distribution and composition of nearshore Lake Michigan fishes

River plumes form in coastal areas where tributaries mix with their receiving waters. Plume waters are enriched with terrestrial-derived nutrients from their watersheds creating hotspots of biological productivity. The biological importance of plumes scales with the size and persistence of the plume; therefore, large, persistent plumes are more important than small, transient plumes. To date, most studies of plumes have focused on assimilation of terrestrial-derived energy by aquatic species or lower-level food web effects, primarily in marine systems. Few studies have described fish communities near plume habitats and compared them to non-plume areas, especially for the numerous small plumes in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Here we demonstrate that small plumes in the main basin of Lake Michigan enhance local primary productivity and influence distribution and abundance of nearshore Great Lakes fishes. We found that plume fish communities were relatively depauperate and did not support higher biological diversity of fishes compared to non-plume areas. However, individual species including rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, spottail shiner Notropis hudsonius, and white sucker Catostomus commersonii were more abundant around plumes. Our results demonstrate that small plumes in the main basin of Lake Michigan support highly localized hotspots of biological productivity and fish abundance, primarily within 2?km of river mouths.     

Spatial analysis of toxic or otherwise bioactive cyanobacterial peptides in Green Bay,Lake Michigan

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) are a growing problem in freshwater systems worldwide. CyanoHABs are well documented in Green Bay, Lake Michigan but little is known about cyanoHAB toxicity. This study characterized the diversity and spatial distribution of toxic or otherwise bioactive cyanobacterial peptides (TBPs) in Green Bay. Samples were collected in 2014 and 2015 during three cruises at sites spanning the mouth of the Fox River north to Chambers Island. Nineteen TBPs were analyzed including 11?microcystin (MC) variants, nodularin, three anabaenopeptins, three cyanopeptolins and microginin-690. Of the 19 TBPs, 12 were detected in at least one sample, and 94% of samples had detectable TBPs. The most prevalent TBPs were MCRR and MCLR, present in 94% and 65% of samples. The mean concentration of all TBPs was highest in the Fox River and lower bay, however, the maximum concentration of all TBPs occurred in the same sample north of the lower bay. MCs were positively correlated with chlorophyll and negatively correlated with distance to the Fox River in all cruises along a well-established south-to-north trophic gradient in Green Bay. The mean concentration of MC in the lower bay across all cruises was 3.0?±?2.3?μg/L. Cyanopeptolins and anabaenopeptins did not trend with the south-north trophic gradient or varied by cruise suggesting their occurrence is driven by different environmental factors. Results from this study provide evidence that trends in TBP concentration differ by congener type over a trophic gradient.     

Currents and Temperatures in Green Bay,Lake Michigan

Current velocities and water temperatures were measured in the four main passages between Green Bay and Lake Michigan and at several sites within the bay during summer and fall 1977. Monthly resultant currents indicate there is anticlockwise circulation in the bay during dominant southwesterly wind and a reversal of this pattern during episodes of northeasterly wind. It is common for two layers to flow through the mouth of the bay in opposite directions during the stratified season. Cold hypolimnetic lake water entering through the mouth and extending far into the bay maintains stratification and promotes flushing. The effects of resonance of forced and free long wave disturbances are prominent in current records; these oscillations are coherent and in phase across the mouth.     

In situ, high-resolution time series of dissolved phosphate in Green Bay,Lake Michigan

In nearly every instance in which the environment has been sampled on a higher resolution in time or space, fundamental processes have come to light that were previously undetected or unobserved. In this study, an autonomous dissolved phosphate sensor was deployed at the Entrance Light station in lower Green Bay, Lake Michigan in 2012 and 2013. Hourly phosphate sensor measurements were compared with other real time sensor data to gain insights into the processes occurring at this site. Results showed that the water column at this location undergoes repeated stratification and turnover during the course of the summer. Often, the stratification results from intrusions of cold hypolimnetic bottom water from the north, while turnover is associated with significant northerly and/or easterly wind events. It was observed that, during calm periods, dissolved phosphate concentrations increased at a rate that was stoichiometrically consistent with the consumption of dissolved oxygen during the remineralization of organic matter; specifically, areal oxygen consumption rates ranged from 3.2 to 43?mmol?m^?2?d^?1 and oxygen to phosphate ratios ranged from 120 to 210. At other times, the inverse relationship between dissolved oxygen and dissolved phosphate was not stoichiometrically linked; during these times, areal oxygen depletion rates ranged from 51 to 240?mmol?m^?2?d^?1 and oxygen to phosphate ratios ranged from 260 to 2300. Future strategic deployment of multiple in situ dissolved phosphate and other nutrient sensors will enhance the understanding of nutrient cycling in this important aquatic system.     

Structure and Ordination of Epiphytic Invertebrate Communities of Four Coastal Wetlands in Green Bay,Lake Michigan

Epiphytic macroinvertebrate communities of four coastal wetlands of Green Bay, Lake Michigan were compared by taxonomic composition, feeding group composition, and environmental influences using Bray-Curtis ordination. Ordination scores from the most sheltered oligotrophic site, Portage Marsh, were distinct from the eutrophic, exposed sites located in middle and lower Green Bay— Seagull Bar, Little Tail Point, and Dead Horse Bay. Epiphyton chlorophyll a, phytoplankton chlorophyll a, and specific conductance strongly correlated to the ordination axes, indicating the trophic gradient within Green Bay was a primary environmental influence. The feeding group compositions at the sites were consistent with the type and abundance of food available. Portage Marsh is a scraper-shredder system, with macroinvertebrates feeding mainly on epiphyton and coarse particulate detritus. Dead Horse Bay and Little Tail Point are collector systems, sustained by phytoplankton and fine particulate organic matter. Seagull Bar is intermediate in trophic position along the ordination axes, but more closely resemble the latter two sites. The type and abundance of food resources available to these invertebrate communities are influenced by wave exposure, light attenuation, nutrient levels, and algae levels of the littoral and pelagial waters. Macroinvertebrate communities were sensitive to shifts in food resources, which generated shifts in trophic structure.     

A comparative examination of recent changes in nutrients and lower food web structure in Lake Michigan and Lake Huron

The lower food webs of Lake Huron and Lake Michigan have experienced similar reductions in the spring phytoplankton bloom and summer populations of Diporeia and cladocerans since the early 2000s. At the same time phosphorus concentrations have decreased and water clarity and silica concentrations have increased. Key periods of change, identified by using a method based on sequential t-tests, were 2003–2005 (Huron) and 2004–2006 (Michigan). Estimated filtration capacity suggests that dreissenid grazing would have been insufficient to directly impact phytoplankton in the deeper waters of either lake by this time (mid 2000s). Despite some evidence of decreased chlorophyll:TP ratios, consistent with grazing limitation of phytoplankton, the main impact of dreissenids on the offshore waters was probably remote, e.g., through interception of nutrients by nearshore populations. A mass balance model indicates that decreased phosphorus loading could not account for observed in-lake phosphorus declines. However, model-inferred internal phosphorus dynamics were strongly correlated between the lakes, with periods of increased internal loading in the 1990s, and increased phosphorus loss starting in 2000 in Lake Michigan and 2003 in Lake Huron, prior to dreissenid expansion into deep water of both lakes. This suggests a limited role for deep populations of dreissenids in the initial phosphorus declines in the lakes, and also suggests a role for meteorological influence on phosphorus dynamics. The high synchrony in lower trophic level changes between Lake Michigan and Lake Huron suggests that both lakes should be considered when investigating underlying causal factors of these changes.     

An adaptive management approach for implementing multi-jurisdictional response to grass carp in Lake Erie

The Great Lakes are influenced by established aquatic invasive species (AIS) and the threat of new invaders persists. Grass carp, one of four species commonly referred to as Asian carp, are considered invasive because of their ability to adversely modify aquatic habitat through consumption of aquatic macrophytes. Grass carp have been infrequently detected in the Great Lakes since the mid-1980s. More frequent reports of grass carp captures from commercial fishermen in the early 2010’s elevated the concern of the potential risk of colonization in Lake Erie. This paper provides a case study detailing the development and implementation of a multi-jurisdictional response strategy for grass carp in Lake Erie. To respond to threats of grass carp in Lake Erie, Michigan and Ohio Departments of Natural Resources led targeted responses using a collaborative multi-jurisdictional approach, while simultaneously investing in reducing critical life-history uncertainties to refine strategies in an adaptive and science-based manner. Efforts to address uncertainties about grass carp life history documented spawning in two Lake Erie tributaries. Building on these early responses, the binational Lake Erie Committee developed a five-year adaptive response framework to guide response actions. The collaborative response efforts resulted in the capture and removal of 184 fertile grass carp since 2014, and efforts are ongoing to increase effectiveness of strategies to achieve desired population reduction. Coordinated grass carp response actions under the five-year strategy will continue using adaptive management principles with outcomes providing useful insights for adapting existing response frameworks and more broadly for AIS responses implemented elsewhere.     

Variations in chemical speciation and reactivity of phosphorus between suspended-particles and surface-sediment in seasonal hypoxia-influenced Green Bay

Water, suspended-particles, and surface-sediment samples were collected from Green Bay, Lake Michigan, for the measurements of phosphorus (P) species, including dissolved/particulate-P, inorganic/organic-P, and five different forms of particulate-P, namely exchangeable- or labile-P (Ex-P), iron-bound-P (Fe-P), biogenic-apatite and/or CaCO₃-associated-P (CFA-P), organic-P (Org-P) and detrital-apatite-P (Detr-P) to elucidate their reactivity and transformation pathways in the water column. Suspended particles contained mainly Ex-P (25?±?15%), Fe-P (28?±?12%) and Org-P (29?±?7%). In contrast, Detr-P (34?±?10%) and Org-P (36?±?12%) were the predominant P species in surface sediment. Contents of Ex-P, Fe-P, Org-P and CFA-P decreased consistently from suspended-particles to surface-sediment, but an increase was observed for the Detr-P, indicating a net loss of Ex-P, Fe-P, Org-P and CFA-P from particulate into dissolved phase. Such active regeneration of P in the water column between particulate and dissolved phases may serve as an internal phosphate source in Green Bay, especially under hypoxic conditions. Degradation of organic matter in south central bay areas seemed to promote hypoxia and enhance the reductive-dissolution of Fe-P and preservation of Org-P under low-oxygen conditions in the central bay. Overall, Ex-P, Fe-P, CFA-P and Org-P species, which comprised up to 50–90% of total particulate-P, can be collectively considered as potentially-bioavailable-P (BAP). Under low-phosphate (0.022?±?0.014?μM in Green Bay) and summer low-oxygen/hypoxic conditions, suspended-particles may release up to 71% of their BAP before deposited in sediment although the BAP regeneration decreased along the south-north transect in Green Bay.     

Quantifying the influence of cold water intrusions in a shallow,coastal system across contrasting years: Green Bay,Lake Michigan

We present water column thermal structure for two climatically different years: 2012, which experienced abnormally warm spring and summer air temperatures preceded by a relatively low ice winter and 2013, which experienced cooler than average spring and average summer air temperatures and preceded by average ice conditions. Mean bottom water temperatures for the season and during cold water intrusions were significantly warmer in 2012 than 2013 leading to a significantly reduced stratified season in 2012. Cold water intrusions were driven into southern Green Bay by southerly winds while intrusions were terminated when winds switched to persistent northerly winds. 2012 observed a significant increase in northerly winds relative to 2013, decreasing cold water intrusion presence and duration but winds did not fully explain the difference in thermal conditions for southern Green Bay. These cold bottom waters drive stratification in polymictic southern Green Bay while dimictic waters were found to have significantly warmer bottom temperatures during 2012 and a deeper mixed layer. Our observations suggest that relatively shallow (<20?m), seasonally stratified systems may not increase in stratification strength and duration under a warming climate; rather, changing wind climatology and surface heat flux can inform the degree to which the mixing regime can be expected to change and impact stratification and thermal structure of coastal systems. We discuss the biogeochemical implications of different thermal regimes, particularly within the context of multiple drivers of physical water column structure in eutrophic, stratified coastal systems.     

Impacts of the Introduced Round Goby (Apollonia melanostoma) on Dreissenids (Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena bugensis) and on Macroinvertebrate Community between 2003 and 2006 in the Littoral Zone of Green Bay,Lake Michigan

We show that the invasion of round gobies (Apollonia melanostoma) in Green Bay, Lake Michigan, has changed the benthic food web in fundamental ways related to their impact on invasive dreissenid mussels. Dreissenid mussels are of specific interest because they are one of the primary dietary items for round gobies. In this study, we collected rocks from each of 10 study sites along approximately 60 km of the eastern shoreline of Green Bay, Lake Michigan, to assess a temporal change in macroinvertebrate abundance related to the northward movement of the round goby invasion front from a point about midway along the shoreline in 2003 to the entire coast in 2006. The pattern of macroinvertebrate abundance in 2003 suggested that round gobies had already caused significant decreases in macroinvertebrate abundances south of the invasion front (interpretation of the data could have been compromised by confounding environmental gradients). In subsequent sampling in 2006 macroinvertebrates were picked off of sampled rocks in the field and underwater transects were videotaped to estimate round goby abundance at each site. Round gobies were collected for stomach analysis to assist in determining which invertebrates would likely be impacted by goby predation. Our results indicated that by 2006, round gobies had become abundant at those sites where they were absent in 2003 and zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha), quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis), isopods, amphipods, trichopterans, and gastropods in the newly invaded sites had significantly decreased at the newly invaded sites.     

Exploring potential drivers of spatiotemporal variation in length-at-age and condition of two common nearshore fishes in southwestern Lake Michigan

Understanding factors like fish size and condition can be crucial to fisheries management. In the Great Lakes, long-term observations of these factors are used to describe the effects of ecosystem dynamics on fish ecology. Considering the diversity of available benthic habitat and dynamic environmental conditions in the nearshore zone of Lake Michigan, we sought to understand the variability in length-at-age and condition of yellow perch and round goby, two important members of the nearshore fish community. We measured these metrics from both species captured in gillnets across three locations in Illinois waters of southwest Lake Michigan from June through October 2008–2012 and related the spatiotemporal differences seen to observed variation in temperature, prey abundance, and competitor abundance. Yellow perch length-at-age varied annually for all three age-classes, with differences relating to thermal regime (age-0 and age-2) and alewife abundance (age-1). Yellow perch condition, measured as residual weight, varied spatially and annually, showing a negative relationship with round goby abundance. Round goby length-at-age was greater at the southern location, likely due to warmer temperatures, while condition was greater at the rockier location. In general, model selection analysis revealed several potential relationships between the relative abundances of competitor species and length and condition of yellow perch and round goby, while prey abundance may be related to round goby condition. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding the diversity in nearshore habitats and the influence of this diversity on factors affecting fish production, including size and condition, in southwest Lake Michigan.     

Model forecasts of atrazine in Lake Michigan in response to various sensitivity and potential management scenarios

For more than forty years, the herbicide atrazine has been used on corn crops in the Lake Michigan basin to control weeds. It is usually applied to farm fields in the spring before or after the corn crop emerges. A version of the WASP4 mass balance model, LM2-Atrazine, was used to assess the impact of the historical and future usage of this chemical on lake water concentrations. Long-term model forecasts were performed under various sensitivity and potential management scenarios. The model was calibrated to available lake data and results indicate that atrazine, under average conditions, is decaying very slowly in the lake (0.009/year). This kinetic decay translates into a half-life estimate of 77 years. If the average condition scenario were assumed to remain constant into the future and reflective of conditions in January 1, 2005, it is expected that the lake (excluding Green Bay) would eventually reach a volume-weighted average atrazine concentration of approximately 67 ng/L in the year 2157 (current model prediction is 48 ng/L for year 2011). These forecasted lake-wide concentrations are below known water quality criteria for the protection of aquatic ecosystems.