复合材料结构制造成本估算模型及软件开发

基于制造工艺过程的成本估算模型,采用Delphi 可视化编程语言和SQL server数据库开发工具,开发了复合材料制造成本评估软件。介绍了基于制造工艺过程的成本估算模型的基本特点,重点讨论了工艺时间模型并分析了构件复杂程度对工艺时间的影响。此外,通过引入曲率熵的概念,对前人提出的构件复杂性因子进行了改进,以便更合理地描述构件的复杂度。提出了成本估算软件的总体方案,确定了软件实现流程,并建立了成本数据库管理系统。列举了用该软件对一种复合材料单曲率板的制造成本进行估算的过程。应用所开发的软件对某型飞机的复合材料副翼和金属副翼的制造成本进行了估算,估算结果表明,复合材料副翼由于采用了低成本工艺与整体化的设计理念,其制造成本低于金属副翼。      

建筑工程快速估价的一种模型及应用

应用模糊数学的理论和计算方法,建立了一种建筑工程造价的快速估算模型：首先拟定建筑工程的特征元素,建立典型工程的特征值矩阵,然后通过公式转换,建立典型工程隶属度矩阵并确定各典型工程与拟建工程的贴近度,最后由贴近度最大的典型工程来计算拟建工程造价。实例应用表明,该模型具有优越性。     

面向决策的一体化建模方法及其在兵力筹划中的应用

在对军事决策问题的主要特点进行分析的基础上，提出从军事概念模型到数学模型再到定性推理模型的一体化建模思想．以空军航空兵遂行直接航空火力支援任务为想定背景，根据EATI模板，利用基于UML的Rose工具依次对想定任务的实体、任务、交互等进行分析；对于兵力筹划中的结构化问题建立了机会约束多目标规划数学模型；对于非结构化问题则构造了推理机，推理机体现了定量与定性相结合的决策分析思想．最后，以一个实例验证文章思路的可行性．     

冠状动脉造影图像序列中估计二维运动及变形的弹性配准算法

提出一种由单面血管造影图像序列分析心脏冠状动脉运动和变形的方法，即利用弹性配准算法，将动脉运动的估计简化为对连续两帧图像的骨架像素的匹配．采用动态规划的方法进行配准，同时引入自回归建模，二者结合起来互相作用：动态规划为自回归模型参数的估计提供样本值；自回归模型为动态规划提供适当的成本函数。采用临床得到的单面冠状动脉造影图像序列对该算法进行了验证。实验结果表明应用该方法计算血管骨架图像中各点的光滑移动向量场，能够得到精确的结果。     

On the upper truncated Weibull distribution and its reliability implications

The characteristics and application of the truncated Weibull distribution are studied in this paper. This distribution is applicable to the situation where the test data are bounded in an interval because of test conditions, cost and other restrictions. An important property of the truncated Weibull distribution is that it can have bathtub-shaped failure rate function. In this paper, the parametric analysis and parameter estimation methods of the distribution are investigated. Both the graphical approach and the maximum likelihood estimation are considered. The applicability of this distribution to modeling lifetime data is illustrated by an example and the results of comparisons to other competitive models in modeling the given data are also presented. Moreover, the possible application of the distribution to modeling component or system failure is discussed.     

Research of Order Allocation of E-commerce Logistics Service Supply Chain Considering Customer Evaluation

Based on the importance of customer evaluation for developing e-commerce enterprises, this paper analyzes the customer evaluation as a fuzzy variable and establishes a multi-objective mixed integer order allocation planning model by considering customer satisfaction, which maximizes customer praise and minimizes procurement cost. As the optimization goal, transaction cost is optimized for the order allocation of the secondary e-commerce logistics service supply chain. In order to defuzzify the customer evaluation, a fuzzy evaluation method is designed to transform the customer evaluation from fuzzy language evaluation to numerical measurement. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the model are verified by using a specific example, and the order is made for the e-commerce enterprise. The allocation provides a theoretical reference.     

Estimating Construction Material Indices with ARIMA and Optimized NARNETs

Construction Industry operates relying on various key economic indicators. One of these indicators is material prices. On the other hand, cost is a key concern in all operations of the construction industry. In the uncertain conditions, reliable cost forecasts become an important source of information. Material cost is one of the key components of the overall cost of construction. In addition, cost overrun is a common problem in the construction industry, where nine out of ten construction projects face cost overrun. In order to carry out a successful cost management strategy and prevent cost overruns, it is very important to find reliable methods for the estimation of construction material prices. Material prices have a time dependent nature. In order to increase the foreseeability of the costs of construction materials, this study focuses on estimation of construction material indices through time series analysis. Two different types of analysis are implemented for estimation of the future values of construction material indices. The first method implemented was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), which is known to be successful in estimation of time series having a linear nature. The second method implemented was Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Network (NARNET) which is known to be successful in modeling and estimating of series with non-linear components. The results have shown that depending on the nature of the series, both these methods can successfully and accurately estimate the future values of the indices. In addition, we found out that Optimal NARNET architectures which provide better accuracy in estimation of the series can be identified/discovered as result of grid search on NARNET hyperparameters.     

分形旋压成形技术研究进展

综述了分形旋压成形技术的国内外研究现状,分析了分形旋压的成形特点,总结了分形旋压可能的变形失效形式,提出了该领域亟待解决的瓶颈问题,并对分形旋压有限元建模过程中的关键技术难题进行了探讨和展望.     

基于齿轮动态激励和弹流润滑的多目标优化

依据齿轮啮合动态激励基本原理和弹性流体动力润滑理论,建立同时追求齿轮啮合时变刚度激励最小、齿间最小油膜厚度最大(倒数最小)及齿轮传动总体积最小的约束多目标优化设计数学模型.对现有的用于两目标优化设计的粒子群优化方法加以改进,给出了约束3目标优化设计方法.利用Matlab编制优化程序,并对范例进行分析计算.优化过程及结果表明,采用较多的齿数,在小于1的范围内采用较大的正变位系数,适度采用较大的压力角可以增大轮齿啮合综合刚度谱图中基频谐波的幅值,有效地提高齿轮传动系统抵抗内部激励振动的能力及性价比.     

基于三维资本结构的人才成长评价模型

本文首先对相关理论研究文献的主要观点进行研究和归纳,认为人力资本、社会资本和心理资本共同决定人才竞争力,度量人才价值和其所拥有的三个资本量相关。在此基础上,建立了评价人才成长的指标体系,构建了人才成长三维资本结构模型,并运用因子分析对其进行实证检验。     

Cost estimation system for machined parts

Estimating the manufacturing cost of a machined part is a critical task with high importance to manufacturing firms. Accurate cost estimation is important for cost control, successful bidding for jobs, and maintaining a competitive position in the marketplace. There are three main approaches towards cost estimation: estimation based on past experience (variant cost estimation), estimation based on explicit cost computations, and parametric cost estimation. This paper presents a hybrid cost estimation system for rotational parts that uses a combination of the variant approach and explicit cost calculations. The variant approach is used to retrieve machining parameters from a database of past parameters. The explicit cost calculations are based on the part geometry, the cutting tools available and the machining parameters retrieved. The system presented calculates the time that a part needs to stay on the machine. This time, which includes processing, set-up (chucking and re-chucking) as well as tool changes, is used to find the machining cost.     

基于盲数理论的工程全寿命周期成本估算

借鉴盲数理论,以公路工程为例,研究如何更加精确地估算工程全寿命周期成本。结果表明：基于盲数理论的工程全寿命周期成本估算法全面真实地反映专家估算的区间和可信度,充分地显示了其简洁性和准确性。把参数作为盲数处理,不必关心随机变量的分布问题,匹配了专家判断回答模式的本质特点,包容了未来的不可确知因素,使得准确性得到有效的提高。不足之处是盲数的四则运算阶数增加很快,必须借助计算机程序解决。     

基于质量成本的顾客满意度优化模型与实证研究

以顾客满意度为研究对象,分析了影响顾客满意度的质量成本构成要素,建立了基于质量成本的顾客满意度优化模型,通过对某客车公司交货天数和刹车零件标准的实证分析研究,证明了所建模型的正确性,为质量成本和顾客满意度的优化分析研究提供了理论依据和有效方法。     

半导体晶圆制造中组合设备运行和控制综述

作为半导体制造中单晶圆加工技术的可重构集成设备,组合设备在半导体产业得到越来越广泛的应用。使用组合设备使得半导体制造产出更高、生产周期更短、空间利用率更高以及生产成本更低。由于组合设备的运行受限于诸多约束条件,有效运行一台组合设备相当困难。目前已有大量的有关组合设备建模、性能分析及调度等相关研究工作。本文回顾了这些研究工作的进展及其使用的研究方法,探讨了现有的方法的优缺点。基于这些分析,指出了进一步的研究方向。     

Product Assembly Cost Estimation Based on Artificial Neural Networks

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人工肌肉驱动特性研究

分析研究了影响人工肌肉驱动的主要非线性因素，建立了更为准确的驱动模型。     

基于空间平滑处理的稳健宽带高分辨方位估计算法

实际系统中阵列误差导致的模型失配问题一直是高分辨方位估计技术走向实用化的一个瓶颈。相对于窄带信号,宽带信号阵列模型误差更加复杂和多样,通过建立宽带阵列信号误差模型,得出了基于空间平滑的稳健的宽带高分辨算法是一种抑制阵列误差的有效方法的结论,这种基于空间平滑的宽带高分辨算法,通过空间平滑后对各频率处不同子阵的互谱密度矩阵求和,一定程度上减弱了阵列误差的影响,具有较高的稳健性。本文结合消声水池试验,分析并验证了其效果。     

Model for cost estimation in a finite-capacity environment

Cost estimation is a practical problem that has attracted the attention of many researchers. Past research has focused mainly on cost estimation in an unlimited capacity environment. This paper presents a mixed-integer-programming model (MIP) for estimating cost under finite capacity. It proposes an iterative heuristic model based on a marginal analysis where the total cost without the new order is subtracted from the total cost with the new order. The proposed heuristic's efficiency and effectiveness are examined with respect to the optimal solution for small instances of the problem and compared with a partial enumeration solution for larger problem instances. Lower bounds obtained from the partial Branch-and-Bound procedure are also used for comparison. A computational study is performed to test how different factors affect the advantage of using the proposed heuristic over a conventional method for cost estimation.     

风险决策模糊数学模型在企业决策中的应用

风险型决策问题是决策科学中的一个重要问题,本文针对其模糊不确定性,建立了自然状态概率的模糊估算模型,然后,基于决策论中的最优期望益损值决策准则进行最优决策,并通过实际应用说明该模型的有效性和可靠性,本文的研究为风险型决策问题的解决提供了一种新的定量分析方法,因此,具有重要的理论与应用价值。