Third world energy problems — the Chilean experience

In common with other Third World countries, Chile's economy is burdened by the high cost of fuel imports. While much could be done to reduce imports through energy conservation and development of indigenous resources, government policy on energy has largely been limited to planning of investment needs. Industry seems generally unaware of the potential for fuel savings through more efficient operations, and no serious effort to conserve energy is expected in the near future. This article describes some of Chile's energy problems and reports on recent developments.     

Impact of EU biofuel policies on world agricultural production and land use

The European Union aims to increase the share of renewable energy in its total energy consumption to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make the economy more CO₂ neutral. This policy is further motivated by a desire to reduce dependency on fossil fuel imports and to stimulate rural development and the agricultural sector.     

Demand elasticity of oil in Barbados

The importation of oil is a significant component of Barbados' imports, rising from 7% of imports in 1998 to over 20% in 2009. This increase has impacted greatly on the level of foreign reserves. As a price-taker, relying entirely on imported oil for our energy needs could prove a continuous drain on the economy. With a view to formulating an appropriate energy policy for Barbados, this paper analyses the demand for oil using monthly data from 1998 to 2009. The paper estimates the elasticities of demand for oil by employing PesAran (2001) single equation cointegration approach and comparing the results with countries that rely heavily on imported oil and whose policy objective are to alter their energy structure to rely less on imported oil. The results show that the demand for oil imports is price inelastic in the long run. The consumption of oil is responsive to past consumption, prices, income, electricity consumption and the number of appliances imported in the short-run. A policy framework to reduce the use of oil for electricity consumption via alternative energy sources should be considered and the taxation of oil imports given its elasticity is a good source of revenue.     

The potential role of hydrogen energy in India and Western Europe

We used the TIMER energy model to explore the potential role of hydrogen in the energy systems of India and Western Europe, looking at the impacts on its main incentives: climate policy, energy security and urban air pollution. We found that hydrogen will not play a major role in both regions without considerable cost reductions, mainly in fuel cell technology. Also, energy taxation policy is essential for hydrogen penetration and India's lower energy taxes limit India's capacity to favour hydrogen. Once available to the (European) energy system, hydrogen can decrease the cost of CO₂ emission reduction by increasing the potential for carbon capture technology. However, climate policy alone is insufficient to speed up the transition. Hydrogen diversifies energy imports; especially for Europe it decreases oil imports, while increasing imports of coal and natural gas. For India, it provides an opportunity to decrease oil imports and use indigenous coal resources in the transport sector. Hydrogen improves urban air quality by shifting emissions from urban transport to hydrogen production facilities. However, for total net emissions we found a sensitive trade-off between lower emissions at end-use (in transport) and higher emissions from hydrogen production, depending on local policy for hydrogen production facilities.     

Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model

Growth in gas demand poses a challenge for European energy consumers and other gas-importing countries in terms of an increasing dependency on gas imports and consequently also supply security. This paper focuses on interactions among demand, supply, and investments in natural gas corridors, namely pipeline transport, LNG, and storage facilities, affecting the European natural gas market over the period 2005–2030. A number of policy scenarios, including a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, are formulated to study the impact of demand uncertainty and delays in investment on the gas transport infrastructure required in the long run in Europe. The analyses indicate that substantial investments in gas transport corridors are needed to accommodate imports and seasonal demand variations. Analysis of scenarios of supply interruption, in the form of suddenly reduced import capacity for particular pipeline routes, indicates that portions of Europe could experience price increases of up to 100% in the case of a year-long interruption. To accommodate import needs and to mitigate possible disruptions, pipeline connections running from East to West need to be given special priority.     

Harvesting operations and energetics of tall grasses for biomass energy production: A case study

The U.S.A. imports about 50% of its energy needs while Florida imports about 85%. Among the renewable energy sources available, biomass appears promising especially in the southeast which includes Florida because of a favorable environment for production and the available methods to convert biomass to energy. Optimal production of biomass requires the identification and management of high yielding persistent perennial cultivars. Elephantgrass (Pennisetum purpureum Schum.) and energycane (Saccharum spontaneum L.) are two tall grasses that meet these requirements. To optimize the supply of convertible biomass, suitable methods of harvesting the crop must be available. The purpose of this research was to study the feasibility and energetics of harvesting, drying, and baling tall grasses with conventional farm machinery.

A Mathews rotary scythe and a New Holland 849 Auto Wrap large round baler were determined to provide a practical harvesting system for baled biomass averaging 15–27 Mg ha⁻¹. The rotary scythe can be used for harvesting and fluffing or turning a windrow over to expedite drying. This harvesting system requires about 3 kg diesel fuel Mg⁻¹ dry biomass (DB), 25 min of time Mg⁻¹ DB, and a cost of about $10 to 12 Mg⁻¹ DB. Energy requirements of harvesting operations would be about 300–375 MJ Mg⁻¹ DB, and primary energy requirements for production and harvesting are about 1100–1500 MJ Mg⁻¹ DB. For each unit of fossil fuel invested in the total production and harvesting system, 12–15 units would be returned in biomass.     

Shortfall in on-road fuel economy: Implications for public policy

A prime factor in studying energy conservation in the USA has been the improvement in car fuel economy. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published values for all models for several years. These laboratory values often do not correspond to those found by motorists; the differences, in many cases, between the two sets of data are substantial. Any future policies based on fuel economy will have to take into account the fact that ‘on-road’ values, in miles per gallon, are often much lower than the EPA values. The author devises a simple model to show the likely difference of petrol use in the USA using theoretical and actual fuel economies. This amounts to about 5 000 million gallons between 1976 and 1985, over half of petrol use in 1978.     

US energy conservation and efficiency policies: Challenges and opportunities

Expanding energy conservation and efficiency in every sector nationwide is one of the most cost-effective instruments for reducing US energy imports, the trade deficit and energy’s environmental impacts. For these reasons, energy conservation and efficiency have been essential elements of US energy policy since the oil embargos and price spikes of the 1970s. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) is the latest federal legislation to expand and strengthen US energy conservation and efficiency policies, programs, and practices. Specifically, EISA and its recent predecessor, the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct05), contain almost 200 titles with new provisions for energy conservation and efficiency aimed at improvements in vehicle fuel economy. These provisions include efficiency of appliances and lighting; energy savings in residential, commercial, and government buildings; the efficiency of industrial manufacturing plants; and the efficiency of electric power delivery and end-use. These actions have begun to contribute to new federal, state, and local policies, programs, and practices across the US, and expectations are high for increases in the level of energy savings. This paper summarizes the history of US energy conservation and efficiency policies, outlines EISA’s and EPAct05’s key provisions, and considers prospects for the future.     

Optimal climate protection strategies for space heating: The case of Austria

The debate over the costs of climate protection policies still focuses on the question of whether strategies to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions at zero or negative net cost (‘no regrets’ strategies) can be found. This article describes a carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction strategy for space and water heating in Austria relying on net present value analyses of 43 climate protection measures. The cost-benefit analyses include investment costs, the savings from energy conservation, the administrative costs of policy instruments and estimates of the external costs. An efficient CO₂ reduction strategy was developed on the basis of energy supply curves which were adapted so that interactions between the CO₂ reduction technologies could be considered. A cost-efficient CO₂ reduction strategy could lower the CO₂ emissions for the provision of space and water heating in Austria by up to 2.7% per year relative to the official ‘business as usual’ scenario.     

Energy conservation and circular economy in China's process industries

Since energy consumption in process industries accounts for a great proportion of China's total energy consumption, energy conservation becomes the practical choice to reduce the conflict between energy demand and energy supply in China, and therefore, promoting energy conservation is the long-term solution to China's energy and environment problems from the source. In this paper, based on the introduction of the concept of energy consumption status in China's key energy-consuming process industries, the main technical bottlenecks and resource-environment problems were analyzed with special emphasis on energy utilization efficiency, energy consumption mode, and waste emission. As for the measures to resolve these problems, at the policy level, policies and programs of Chinese government related to energy conservation were introduced in combination with China's circular economy structure. At the technical level, the key technologies and research progress to improve energy utilization efficiency, reducing energy consumption, as well as utilizing the resource of discharged wastes were reviewed. Finally, three typical cases of the development of circular economy at three levels, namely the chemical industry, metallurgical industry, and electric power industry, were studied for the enforcement of circular economy and energy conservation in China's process industries.     

“十一五”工业节能面临的挑战与对策

单位GDP能耗降低20%这一“十一五”节能目标的提出,意味着对“十一五”工业节能提出了极高的要求。本文对“十一五”工业节能目标进行了测算,归纳了“十一五”工业节能降耗的现实可能途径,分析了“十一五”工业节能面临的挑战,并提出了较具针对性和可操作性的强化工业节能对策建议。     

Evaluation of small wind turbines in distributed arrangement as sustainable wind energy option for Barbados

The island of Barbados is 99% dependent on fossil fuel imports to satisfy its energy needs, which is unsustainable. This study proposes a 10 MW distributed wind energy scheme using micro wind turbines (WT) of horizontal (HAWT) and vertical axis (VAWT) configurations. These units are rated less than 500 W, and the scheme is hereafter referred to as mWT10. mWT10 is compared to the proposed 10 MW medium WT farm by the Barbados Light & Power Company (BL&P). The economic bottom line is the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The results highlight the BL&P proposal as the best economic option at BDS$0.19 per kWh, while that of both mWT10 configurations exceeds the conventional cost of BDS$0.25 by two to nine times. This is attributed to significantly higher relative installation and operational costs. However, the financial gap between mWT10 LCOE and the retail price of electricity is much smaller due to a large fuel surcharge passed on to each customer. Annual additional benefits of using wind energy include: greenhouse gas emissions savings of 6–23 kt of carbon dioxide; and anavoided fuel costs of BDS$1.5–5.3 million.

The distributed mWT10 using HAWTs competes directly with the BL&P farm, however, it provides these benefits without the visual or ecological impacts of the larger machines. Conversely, VAWTs have features that favour a visually discrete and widely repeatable scheme but suffer relatively high costs. Therefore, this study illustrates the great potential of small wind turbines to be competitive with conventional wind farms, thus challenging the small wind industry to meet its potential by producing reliable and robust machines at lower cost.     

Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon

This paper applies econometric models to investigate determinants of electrical energy consumption in post-war Lebanon. The impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), proxied by total imports (TI), and degree days (DD) on electricity consumption is investigated over different time spans covering the period from 1993 to 1997. The time spans are chosen according to the rationing level of electricity supply. For the 1993–1994 time span, TI is found to be a significant determinant of energy consumption, whereas, DD has a negative correlation. This inconsistency might be attributed to an extensive rationing policy followed during this period. For the 1995–1997 time span which includes reduced rationing period (1995), all electrical energy consumption determinants are found to be significant at the 5% significance level. Analysis results for the rationing free 1996–1997 time span also show the significance of TI and DD at the 5% level. Furthermore, cointegration analysis for the 1995–1997 and 1996–1997 subsets reveals the existence of a long-run relationship between all variables. In addition, error correction models for both subsets are developed to predict short-run dynamics. Finally, statistical performance measures such as mean square error, mean average deviation and mean average percentage error are presented for all models.     

逐步建立节能的长效机制

节能在我国能源战略中占有优先地位,而且是我国实现经济发展方式转变的重要策略,需要常抓不懈。我国正处于向市场经济转型阶段,要改进当前政府以行政手段为主的、高成本节能管理。需要加快节能机制的创新,排除节能的各种障碍,通过强化《节能法》实施力度、建立有效的节能技术推广服务和监管体系、健全节能的统计与监管等改革各项措施,逐步建立起节能的长效机制,使节能形成全社会的自觉行动。     

EEC energy policy and the UK: The Birmingham energy model

This paper examines the implications of the EEC common energy policy for the UK energy sector as represented by a long-term programming model. The model suggests that the UK will be a substantial net exporter of energy in 1985 and will therefore make an important contribution towards the EEC's efforts to meet its import dependency target of 50% or less of gross inland consumption. Furthermore, the UK energy sector could operate within the 1985 EEC energy policy constraints with relatively low extra cost up to the year 2020 (the end of the period covered by the model). The main effect of the constraints would be to bring forward the production of synthetic gas and oil from coal.     

Household water conservation: The role of indirect energy savings

Recent regulations specify a cost-effectiveness analysis of implementing household water conservation measures to reduce the flow of wastewater as a prerequisite to federal funding of wastewater treatment plant construction. There is a wide variety of devices available to conserve water: hot water as well as water at ambient temperature. In this analysis we use a sample of 23 metropolitan areas to evaluate the indirect household energy savings which results from conservation devices to save hot water.

Devices to conserve hot water are cost-effective in all 23 metropolitan areas up to an equivalent annual cost of $1.50/1000 gal saved under an assumption of no inflation in energy prices, and about $7.00/1000 gal saved under an assumption of 20%/yr inflation in energy prices. The impact of the indirect energy savings can be further illustrated by noting that devices to conserve ambient temperature water are cost-ineffective in all 23 metropolitan areas at equivalent annual costs above $1.00/1000 gal saved. Besides increasing the level of cost-effective household water conservation from 114 gal/day to 146 gal/day for a family of four, while providing significant economic savings, the indirect energy savings from hot-water conservation devices can provide a 46–62% reduction in energy use for residential water heating.     

Scenarios for the evolution of the Spanish electricity sector: Is it on the right path towards sustainability?

The Spanish energy and electricity models are clearly unsustainable: the large increase in electricity demand, a huge dependency on energy imports, and significant environmental impacts are clear reasons for concern. In this paper we take a look at the possible evolution of the Spanish electricity sector under different policy scenarios, and try to identify which are the policies that may help to achieve the desired goal, as well as the role that the different technologies may play. Results are quite optimistic in that, under the appropriate policy measures, carbon emissions of the electricity sector may be reduced in 2020 up to 37% compared to 1990, and energy imports may be also much reduced, at reasonable costs. However, this may only be achieved by strongly pursuing energy efficiency improvements and other energy conservation measures, which should then become a must for all energy plans in Spain, together with renewable energy promotion and stronger carbon reduction policies.     

The long term implications and constraints of alternate energy policies

The complexity of the current energy situation is such that conventional analysis does not provide sufficient foundation upon which to base energy-policy decisions. We have used an overview perspective in analyzing how a diverse range of phenomena, such as population, price, inflation, transportation, agriculture, international trade and city design, are linked to energy policy. A principle tool used in the study is the hierarchical simulation model SPECULATER.

Contrary to the “conventional wisdom”, present U.S. energy prices are exceedingly low, whether the standard of comparison is the historical level of U.S. energy prices or current energy prices in other countries, which are 3 to 115 times more expensive after correcting for ability to pay. We do not suggest that higher energy prices are not inflationary, but rather that lower energy prices are also inflationary. Widening the analytical scope reveals that the “benefits” of low energy prices are more illusionary than real. What may appear to be an immediate benefit of a particular policy often turns out to be a subsequent disaster. Unless policies are aimed at promoting long-term stability instead of short-term benefit, the difficult decisions we are facing today will seem trivial compared to the agonizing decisions we stand to face in the future.

Simulations using SPECULATER indicate some of the long-term implications of current energy policy. For example, a policy in which gasoline prices decline slightly until 1980 and then increase only with inflation leads to a year 2000 wheat price that is 21% higher than that produced by a policy which advocates an increase in the price of gasoline to $1.00 by 2000. Both policies would still require large imports of oil and, consequently, would push U.S. agricultural system to a point where necessary production levels could only be met by massive increases in capital (both human and monetary), energy and water. Alternatively, an energy policy that would increase gasoline prices to a level similar to that in West Germany (about three times current U.S. prices, after correcting for ability to pay) would result in lower wheat prices, since consumption would be decreased, with concomitant decreases in oil imports and wheat exports.

Failure of policy-makers to support a strong energy policy (culminating in decreased consumption and ultimately general conservation) will result in a diversity of other problems becoming more serious. Capital promises to be a critical factor in the future, as do water, health care service, and the U.S. international trade balance. In short, “cheap” energy is not cheap; energy will be paid for a true price in some roundabout fashion, either in the supermarket, through increased taxes, loss of jobs, lack of health care services, etc.     

Challenges and countermeasures of China’s energy security

China is now a major consumer and importer of energy, and its choices and policies will increasingly affect the rest of the world. This paper analyses the key features of China’s energy policy as it faces the prospect of possible challenges to its energy security given the increasing reliance on fuel imports and the need to transform its energy to meet the requirements of a modern, fast-growing economy. The paper examines whether the current energy mix is appropriate and sustainable, and considers the China’s policymakers new emphasis on energy efficiency, conservation, renewable energy and the shift to natural gas the primary energy source. It examines the internal and external constraints on China’s energy policy and considers the strategic dilemmas arising from China’s increasing involvement in international energy markets. It concludes that both the domestic and international implications of China’s search for energy security will confront policymakers with hard choices that will affect not only energy policy, but also China’s geopolitical grand strategy.