2016 年太湖流域洪灾损失及骨干工程防洪减灾效益评估研究

为了评估 2016 年太湖流域梅雨期间骨干工程发挥的防洪减灾效益,利用流域一维河网水动力学数学模型,计算得到无骨干防洪工程情景下的河段水位过程,将其与河段设计水位比较,推算每个河段两岸的淹没水量。再与 DEM 和圩堤等阻水构筑物数据相结合,通过空间叠加分析和水量平衡计算,获得洪水淹没的空间分布。建立了流域洪灾损失评估模型,基于土地利用数据、洪水淹没分布和社会经济数据,对无骨干防洪工程情景下的洪灾直接经济损失进行了评估。将该损失与调查统计的实况洪灾损失数据进行对比,结果表明: 骨干工程在此次洪灾中发挥了约 116. 12 亿元的防洪减灾效益。其中,无锡市和苏州市防洪减灾效益最大,分别达到了 50. 08 亿元和 44. 11 亿元。研究成果定量论证了太湖流域骨干防洪工程在 2016 年洪灾中的经济效益,采用的评估方法对于其他流域或区域防洪工程效益评价具有一定的参考价值。     

Flooding and Surface Connectivity of Taxodium‐Nyssa Stands in a Southern Floodplain Forest Ecosystem

An understanding of the factors controlling the permanent and episodic links between the main stem of a river and the ecosystems of its alluvial floodplain is necessary for evaluating the influence of modern river processes on floodplain ecology and habitat diversity and for the successful implementation of flow regimes that meet human needs for water in a manner that sustains the ecological integrity of affected systems. In this study, we examined relationships between river hydrology and lateral hydrological connectivity, which is crucial to directing fluxes of water, material, and organisms into and across a floodplain. We did so by translating measures of river discharge for the Congaree River into high resolution maps of flood conditions for the floodplain at Congaree National Park using a 2D flood inundation model. Utilizing a graph network approach, we then analyzed the connectivity of a key wetland ecosystem, Taxodium‐Nyssa forested swamps, to the main stem river and to each other under different flows. Our results underscore that floodplain connectivity is initiated at sub‐bankfull discharges and does not depend on levee overtopping, while also clarifying that various sources of connectivity are triggered at different flow levels in specific reaches. Further, our findings demonstrate the sensitive and non‐linear response of floodplain connectivity to river flows and provide useful information to facilitate the management of flood processes in the Congaree River watershed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes to herbaceous plant communities on a regulated desert river

Riparian plant communities are shaped by gradients of disturbance intensity and frequency and resource availability. Reservoir operation can alter the composition and abundance of riparian vegetation by changing the flood regime and by trapping fine sediments and associated nutrients within the reservoir system. We examined differences in herbaceous species richness, abundance and composition in Populus‐Salix stands along an unregulated and regulated reach of a river in semi‐arid Arizona, contrasted flood inundation frequency and edaphic conditions (soil moisture, nutrients and texture) between the reaches, and interpreted the vegetation differences in light of observed differences in environmental conditions. Flooding frequency was similar between reaches, but the proportion of fine textured soils in the unregulated reach was nearly double that of the regulated reach and soil nutrient levels were up to three times higher in the unregulated reach. Herbaceous cover and richness were consistently lower in the regulated reach, with between‐reach differences greatest during dry seasons. These patterns suggest that an edaphic‐based change in resource availability is the principal pathway by which river damming is altering herbaceous vegetation in this system. Our results demonstrate that sediment transport within riparian corridors is important for maintenance of herbaceous communities and that restoration of flow regimes alone may be insufficient to restore herbaceous flora on some regulated reaches. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南方平原河网区城市内涝的全过程监测与特征分析

南方平原河网区中普遍存在由堤防、闸坝以及泵站形成的高度城镇化圩区,圩区内受降雨过程和泵站启闭影响的城市内涝特征和模拟方法仍有待探索。本文以常州市城市产汇流与内涝实验基地为对象进行了降雨、管道及河道水位流量等全过程长期监测,并通过布设水位计和视频监控设备进行城市内涝积水深度和范围自动监测。监测数据表明圩区内管网和河道流动性很差,管网长期处于淹没状态,监测期间管道水深有75%时间大于0.76 m;在检查井未发生溢流冒水现象时,仍然会发生内涝积水且主要集中在雨篦子周围道路低洼处,其深度和范围主要受到降雨过程、地形、雨篦子收水能力和泵站启闭的影响;开启泵站在增大管网排水能力的同时也在一定程度上削减了内涝积水范围。因此,根据降雨预报与内涝积水实时监测信息及时调控圩区水位可以有效缓解内涝积水情况,在模拟城市内涝时也不应忽略雨篦子收水能力和泵站启闭对内涝过程的影响;本研究可为构建城市内涝全过程在线监测平台提供参考,也能为城市内涝过程的概化模拟方法提供依据。     

Utility of remotely operated underwater vehicle in flood inundation mapping for dam failure: A case study of Lake Tuscaloosa Dam

A remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV) is a tethered underwater mobile device that can conduct a bathymetric survey cost-efficiently. Assessment of the utility of ROV-based bathymetric surveys in flood inundation mapping remains limited. This study aims to examine the utility of ROV-based bathymetric surveys in high-resolution flood inundation mapping for a hypothetical case study of the Lake Tuscaloosa Dam breach in the state of Alabama, USA. This study conducted the sensitivity test of flood inundation mapping to the river channel depth (ROV-based vs. digital elevation model [DEM]-based) and initial flow condition (e.g., wet vs. dry), via six different simulations of the parallelized diffusion hydrodynamic model (pDHM). This study found that the ROV-based pDHM runs had higher maximum water depths over the flood-inundated areas, ranging from +73% to +166% of the simulated depths of the DEM-based pDHM runs. However, the impact of initial streamflow condition on the maximum depths was limited. This study also found that the pDHM runs with a dry initial flow condition delayed the time to reach the maximum depth after the dam breach by 2 h relative to the pDHM runs with a wet initial streamflow condition. This study suggests that ROV-based bathymetry surveys improve flood inundation mapping by emphasizing the influence of river channel depth, initial streamflow conditions, and bathymetry, thereby bolstering community resilience to a potential human-made hazard such as dam failure.     

Modelling floodplain inundation on a regulated river: integrating GIS,remote sensing and hydrological models

The lower River Murray in South Australia is highly regulated through weirs and water extraction for irrigation. Management of the river for environmental purposes requires an understanding of the extent of floodplain inundation from various flows and weir manipulations. This study aimed to produce a floodplain inundation model for the 600 km long and 1–5 km wide portion of the River Murray in South Australia from the New South Wales border to Lake Alexandrina. The model was developed using a Geographical Information System (GIS), remote sensing and hydrological modelling. Flood inundation extents were monitored from Landsat satellite imagery for a range of flows, interpolated to model flood growth patterns and linked to a hydrological model of the river. The resulting model can be analysed for flows ranging from minimum flow to a 1‐in‐13‐year flood event for any month and weir configuration and has been independently tested using aerial photography to an accuracy of approximately 15% underestimate. The results have proven the approach for determining flood inundation over a large area at approximately one‐tenth of the cost of detailed elevation and hydrodynamic modelling. The GIS model allows prediction of impacts on infrastructure, wetlands and floodplain vegetation, allowing quantitative analysis of flood extent to be used as an input into the management decision process. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MORPHOLOGICALLY RELATED INTEGRATIVE MANAGEMENT CONCEPT FOR RECONNECTING ABANDONED CHANNELS BASED ON AIRBORNE LiDAR DATA AND HABITAT MODELLING

Most of the large rivers are heavily degraded and lack near‐natural conditions due to high human pressure (agricultural use and settlements) especially on former inundation areas. Hence, it is rarely possible to ‘restore’ predisturbance conditions of rivers and their floodplains. Further, river or floodplain restoration programs are often based on type‐specific reference conditions. Those reference conditions are mainly determined on the basis of historical maps not giving any information of, for example, sediment supply, flood frequency and vegetation cover (density). Especially for improving the ecological status of rivers with abandoned channel features, key habitats for target fish species have to be restored by reconnecting floodplains and their secondary channel system. In addition, because of the necessity of improving the ecological status, there is growing interest in interdisciplinary river restoration techniques. Within the presented article, an integrative concept is derived based on Light Detection and Ranging measurements and numerical modelling with respect to river dynamics (hydrologic and morphological). Further habitat modelling, based on unsteady depth‐averaged two‐dimensional hydrodynamics, is applied with a focus on the mesounit scale. For testing the conceptual model, various river reaches at the Morava River were selected, featuring different morphological characteristics. It was found that the applied management concept allows considering the important issues of river dynamics (morphological/hydrologic) using a flow‐ and flood‐pulse approach for identifying bottlenecks of target species at the Morava River. The reconnection of abandoned channels will result in an increase of hydromorphological heterogeneity and/or woody debris within the study reach. This might be of high relevance for habitat features (e.g. backwater habitats) especially for flow pulses between low flow and mean flow and/or in reaches without abandoned channels between low‐flow and the bankfull stage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SEDIMENT DYNAMICS IN THE RESTORED REACH OF THE KISSIMMEE RIVER BASIN,FLORIDA: A VAST SUBTROPICAL RIPARIAN WETLAND

Historically, the Kissimmee River Basin consisted of a broad nearly annually inundated riparian wetland similar in character to tropical Southern Hemisphere large rivers. The river was channelized in the 1960s and 1970s, draining the wetland. The river is currently being restored with over 10 000 hectares of wetlands being reconnected to 70 river km of naturalized channel. We monitored riparian wetland sediment dynamics between 2007 and 2010 at 87 sites in the restored reach and 14 sites in an unrestored reference reach. Discharge and sediment transport were measured at the downstream end of the restored reach. There were three flooding events during the study, two as annual flood events and a third as a greater than a 5‐year flood event. Restoration has returned periodic flood flow to the riparian wetland and provides a mean sedimentation rate of 11.3 mm per year over the study period in the restored reach compared with 1.7 mm per year in an unrestored channelized reach. Sedimentation from the two annual floods was within the normal range for alluvial Coastal Plain rivers. Sediment deposits consisted of over 20% organics, similar to eastern blackwater rivers. The Kissimmee River is unique in North America for its hybrid alluvial/blackwater nature. Fluvial suspended‐sediment measurements for the three flood events indicate that a majority of the sediment (70%) was sand, which is important for natural levee construction. Of the total suspended sediment load for the three flood events, 3%–16% was organic and important in floodplain deposition. Sediment yield is similar to low‐gradient rivers draining to the Chesapeake Bay and alluvial rivers of the southeastern USA. Continued monitoring should determine whether observed sediment transport and floodplain deposition rates are normal for this river and determine the relationship between historic vegetation community restoration, hydroperiod restoration, and sedimentation. Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Potential effects of a major navigation project (Paraguay–Paraná Hidrovía) on inundation in the Pantanal floodplains

The Pantanal wetland of Brazil, a vast complex of seasonally inundated floodplains along the Paraguay River, is renowned for its outstanding biological resources. A proposed navigation project known as the Paraguay–Paraná Waterway (or Hidrovía) would deepen the Paraguay River channel to facilitate year‐round navigation through the Pantanal. The possibility of decreases in river levels (stage) has aroused concerns in relation to the potential environmental impacts, however the poor understanding of the hydrological relationships between rivers and floodplains has hampered evaluation of these impacts. The present study evaluates the potential impact of river modifications on adjacent floodplains by examining the relationship between the Paraguay River stage and the extent of floodplain inundation. Satellite observations of flooded area (from passive microwave emission; monthly data for 1979–1987) are plotted against river stage from several stations throughout the region to show the stage–inundation relationships for eight subregions along the Paraguay River. Scenarios in which the Paraguay River stage is decreased from the 20th and 80th percentile values reveal large potential impacts on inundation. For stage decreases of 0.10 and 0.25 m, the total flooded area is reduced by 1430 and 3830 km² at low‐water, and by 2410 and 5790 km² at high‐water, respectively. The floodplains of the two northernmost subregions appear to be most susceptible to reductions in flooding, losing more than half of their flooded area with a 0.25‐m decrease in the low‐water stage. The ecological impacts of these reductions in flooded area may be particularly severe at low water, when the few areas that typically remain flooded throughout the dry season serve as important refuges for aquatic animals. These results underscore the need for better understanding of the hydrology of the integrated river floodplain systems in the Pantanal before river channel modifications are carried out. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FLOOD INUNDATION MAPPING FOR INTEGRATED FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT: UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM

Natural hydrogeomorphic characteristics and hydrologic alterations are important ecological drivers, and hydrology is also a common ecological, flood control and navigation system indicator. Hydrologic characteristics change dramatically from one end of the Upper Mississippi River System to the other, and hydraulic characteristics also differ spatially across the river channels and floodplain in response to dams, levees and diversions. Low flow surface water spatial change in response to navigation and flood control has been well known for many years, but little information was available on the spatial distribution of frequent floods. The flow frequency data presented here were developed to better estimate contemporary floods after historic flooding in 1993. Flood stage estimates are enhanced in GIS to help quantify and map potential floodplain inundation for more than 1000 river miles on the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Potential flood inundation is mapped for the 50% to 0.2% annual exceedance probability flood stage (i.e. 2‐ to 500‐year expected recurrence interval flood) and also for alternative floodplain management scenarios within the existing flood protection infrastructure. Our analysis documents: (i) impoundment effects, (ii) a hydrologic gradient within the navigation pools that creates repeating patterns of riverine, backwater and impounded aquatic habitat conditions, (iii) potential floodplain inundation patterns for over 2 million acres and (iv) several integrated floodplain management scenarios. Extreme flood events are more common in recent decades, and they are expected to continue to occur at greater frequency in response to climate change. Floodplain managers can use the results presented here to help optimize land management and flood damage reduction on the Upper Mississippi River System. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

太湖流域大尺度洪涝淹没仿真模型的建立及应用

利用DEM数据及GIS空间分析技术构建洪涝淹没分析模块,将圩区概化为"零维调蓄单元",实现圩区的精细化模拟,与细化后的太湖流域水文水动力学模型耦合,建立能够可靠模拟太湖流域洪涝淹没状态的数学模型.选择2016年流域性暴雨洪涝资料进行模拟验证,与代表站实测水位及实际洪涝灾情分布对比表明,构建的洪涝淹没仿真模型可靠有效.针...     

Landscape Scale Assessment of Floodplain Inundation Frequency Using Landsat Imagery

In large river ecosystems, the timing, extent, duration and frequency of floodplain inundation greatly affect the quality of fish and wildlife habitat and the supply of important ecosystem goods and services. Seasonal high flows provide connectivity from the river to the floodplain, and seasonal inundation of the floodplain governs ecosystem structure and function. River regulation and other forms of hydrologic alteration have altered the connectivity of many rivers with their adjacent floodplain – impacting the function of wetlands on the floodplain and in turn, impacting the mainstem river function. Conservation and management of remaining floodplain resources can be improved through a better understanding of the spatial extent and frequency of inundation at scales that are relevant to the species and/or ecological processes of interest. Spatial data products describing dynamic aspects floodplain inundation are, however, not widely available. This study used Landsat imagery to generate multiple observations of inundation extent under varying hydrologic conditions to estimate inundation frequency. Inundation extent was estimated for 50 Landsat scenes and 1334 total images within the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCPO LCC), a conservation science partnership working in a 730 000‐km² region in the south central USA. These data were composited into a landscape mosaic to depict relative inundation frequency over the entire GCPO LCC. An analytical methodology is presented for linking the observed inundation extent and frequency with long‐term gage measurements so that the outcomes may be useful in defining meaningful critical thresholds for a variety of floodplain dependent organisms as well as important ecological processes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA     

设计降雨特征对城市内涝模拟结果的影响分析

降雨是城市内涝的主要诱因之一,不同降雨特征对于城市内涝风险的影响也有所区别。为了进一步挖掘降雨特征对城市内涝风险的影响,采用综合流域排水模型（InfoWorks ICM）构建了我国南方某城市的内涝模型,系统分析了设计降雨的雨型和历时特征对城市内涝模拟结果的影响。在4个重现期的3种降雨雨型和3个降雨历时条件下,共计36个不同降雨情景对研究区的内涝情况进行模拟。通过对比不同模拟情景下的积水深度、积水面积以及积水量等结果发现：在相同降雨雨型和重现期条件下,降雨历时对积水深度的影响有一定的差别;在不同降雨雨型和降雨历时模拟情景中,积水点的位置基本保持一致,而积水面积受降雨雨型和降雨历时的双重影响;峰值积水量受降雨雨型影响较大,受降雨历时影响较小,而积水总量受降雨历时影响较大,受降雨雨型影响较小。研究中量化分析了不同设计降雨特征对城市内涝模拟结果的影响,旨在为合理地开展城市内涝预警以及应急管理等工作提供依据。     

Predicting Floodplain Hypoxia in the Atchafalaya River,Louisiana, USA,a Large,Regulated Southern Floodplain River System

The Atchafalaya River Basin Floodway (ARBF), a regulated river/floodplain distributary of the Mississippi River, experiences an annual flood pulse that strongly influences floodplain physicochemistry. We developed several metrics to investigate the relationship between the timing and magnitude of the flood pulse and floodplain hypoxia, which in most years is a spatially extensive and temporally prolonged problem in the lower ARBF. Principal components analysis of flood metrics from 2001 to 2009 revealed contrasting flood types (early cool and late warm), but component‐based general linear models were unable to predict the magnitude of hypoxia in ARBF water management areas (WMAs). Further analyses based on temperature and geographic information system‐determined WMA inundation with generalized additive models (GAMs) revealed WMA‐specific patterns of hypoxia, but the likelihood of hypoxia consistently increased when temperatures approached 20°C and inundation rose above 20–30%. Validation with held‐out data based on logistic regression indicated that the models constructed with the 2001–2009 temperature and inundation data were able to accurately predict the probabilities of hypoxia in two WMAs based on data collected from 2010 to 2013. The GAMs were an effective tool for visualizing and predicting the probability of hypoxia based on two easily generated parameters. Our analyses indicate that modification of the Atchafalaya River flood pulse could reduce the magnitude of hypoxia within the lower ARBF, subject to engineering (control structure operation) and economic (commercial fisheries production) constraints, by minimizing floodplain inundation after water temperatures reach 20°C. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GIS技术在洪水淹没分析中的应用

应用水力学方法和GIS技术,通过建立珠江流域北江下游潖江天然滞洪区洪水淹没模型,对蓄滞洪区不同洪水淹没水位进行分析,计算淹没区的滞洪量,为防洪决策和淹没区洪灾损失分析提供科学依据。     

鄱阳湖淹没范围、水深和库容的遥感研究

鄱阳湖湿地是国际重要湿地,也是长江的主要蓄洪区,研究鄱阳湖淹没范围、淹没水深和库容对长江流域水文和湿地保护都有重要意义。通过对13个时相的Landsat卫星遥感影像进行非监督分类提取湖泊水体淹没范围,叠加鄱阳湖区地形图,获取水体边界的水位,通过空间内插计算鄱阳湖水位空间分布,进一步计算水深空间分布和库容量,在此基础上,根据鄱阳湖都昌水文站观测水位,计算鄱阳湖水位-面积曲线和水位-库容曲线。结果表明:鄱阳湖水位存在高水位时空间一致性,低水位时水位存在较大的空间差异,湖泊水位差可达到5 m;水位-淹没面积曲线和水位-库容曲线分别可以由对数方程和二次曲线方程拟合。     

黄河下游滩区淹没损失估算研究

通过典型调查取得滩区社会经济指标和洪水淹没损失指标,计算滩区耕地亩均产值和洪水淹没损失率,并根据预估的不同量级洪水淹没面积,估算不同量级洪水淹没损失,为制定黄河下游滩区补偿标准和执行补偿政策的决策提供依据。     

考虑圩区分布的平原河网区暴雨洪涝分析模型建立

针对圩区众多的平原河网区域,基于已有的一、二维非恒定流水动力学理论建立的城市洪涝仿真模型,引入"小蓄水面"的概念,将圩区内外在水动力学模型中未被概化但对降雨的调蓄作用不可忽略的小河、塘坝、小湖泊等根据其实际空间分布统一概化为所在网格的小蓄水面,并考虑圩区堤防标准、抽排能力和调度运行规则对河网区域洪涝时空分布的影响,对模型中网格淹没水深、圩区排涝和闸泵调度的计算方法进行了改进。选择嘉兴市为案例区域建立了暴雨洪涝分析模型,利用模型对嘉兴市近年来典型场次暴雨进行模拟计算,与河道实测水位及洪涝分布调查结果对比表明,模型对区域的概化合理,能反映嘉兴市在受本地降雨和上游洪水影响、下游潮位顶托及复杂的工程调度规则综合作用下水流的运动特点和洪涝的分布特征,模拟结果可靠,模型可以为区域洪水风险图编制和防汛风险管理提供支持。     

河道束窄段对上游洪水过程特性的影响

为了研究束窄河段对洪水演进过程特征的影响,采用二维全水动力模型GAST模拟了束窄段河道洪水过程,通过理想河道和灞河上游实际河道分析了河道束窄程度与洪水特性间的定量关系。结果表明：束窄断面形状对洪水过程特征中水深、流速影响的大小依次为V形>U形>梯形>矩形。断面形状相同时,束窄程度越大对水深和流速影响越大。河道束窄段上游水位壅高,下游水位相对降低但流速更大。扩宽河道束窄段可以降低上游水位及上下游流速差。在“8·19”洪水下,灞河束窄河段束窄程度降低时(原河道束窄程度为64.4%,河道疏浚后束窄程度分别为55.6%、46.7%、37.8%),上游最大水深分别减小0.669、0.985和1.066 m,上下游流速差分别减小0.702、1.592、2.550 m/s。洪量越大则河道水位越高、流速越大,束窄程度变化对水位和流速变化的影响也越大。将“8·19”洪水进行缩放入流情况下,原始河道最大水深分别为2.177、2.778、3.618 m,束窄程度为37.8%时最大水深减小至1.866、2.367、3.175 m。通过分析不同束窄程度的束窄段河道洪水过程特性,可为束窄段河道防...     

松滋江堤防洪保护区洪水风险研究(Ⅰ)——模型的建立与验证

长江中下游地处冲积平原,洪水灾害较为频繁,沿江堤防是生命财产和生产设施的第一道屏障。其中荆江河段洪水峰高量大,且两岸支流众多、江湖关系复杂,防洪形势尤为严峻。以上荆江松滋江堤防洪保护区为研究对象,分析了可能产生的堤防溃口;在对复杂的荆江—洞庭湖水系进行概化的基础上,建立一二维耦合数学模型,研究了1 000 a一遇洪水条件下松滋江堤发生溃决后长江干流及防洪保护区内的洪水演进过程,并以最大淹没水深、淹没时间及最大流速为风险要素,分析了保护区内的洪水风险分布情况。文章共分为2篇,此为第一篇,旨在阐述一二维耦合数学模型建立与率定验证过程。