An Intelligent Decision Support System for Management of Floods

Integrating human knowledge with modeling tools, an intelligent decision support system (DSS) is developed to assist decision makers during different phases of flood management. The DSS is developed as a virtual planning tool and can address both engineering and non-engineering issues related to flood management. Different models (hydrodynamic, forecasting, and economic) that are part of the DSS share data and communicate with each other by providing feedback. The DSS is able to assist in: selecting suitable flood damage reduction options (using an expert system approach); forecasting floods (using artificial neural networks approach); modeling the operation of flood control structures; and describing the impacts (area flooded and damage) of floods in time and space. The proposed DSS is implemented for the Red River Basin in Manitoba, Canada. The results from the test application of DSS for 1997 flood in the Red River Basin are very promising. The DSS is able to predict the peak flows with 2% error and reveals that with revised operating rules the contribution of Assiniboine River to the flooding of Winnipeg city can be significantly reduced. The decision support environment allows a number of “what-if” type questions to be asked and answered, thus, multiple decisions can be tried without having to deal with the real life consequences.     

An Integrated Model to Evaluate Losses in Water Distribution Systems

To evaluate non revenue water (NRW) and losses in water distribution networks a methodology is developed by applying “annual water balance” and “minimum night flow” analyses. In this approach the main NRW components such as leakage from reported and un-reported bursts and background leakage, with real or estimated data, enabling assessment of indices of leakage performance are evaluated. Also, a novel procedure is introduced in this paper that can determine the nodal and pipe leakage by using a hydraulic simulation model. Recognising the pressure dependency of leakage the total consumption is divided into two parts, one pressure dependent and the other independent of local pressure, and the hydraulic behaviour of the network is analyzed. A computer code is developed to evaluate all components of water losses based on the proposed methodology. For better representation of the results and management of the system, the outputs are exported to a GIS model. Using the capabilities of this GIS model, the network map and attribute data are linked and factors affecting network leakage are identified. In addition, the effects of pressure reduction are investigated. The model is illustrated by a real case study. The results show that the suggested model has overcome the shortcomings of the existing methodologies by accounting for the leakage and other NRW components in water distribution networks more realistically.     

A Methodology for the Breakdown of NRW into Real and Administrative Losses

The estimation of Non Revenue Water (NRW) is simple and easy for water suppliers who keep records of the system input volume and the billed authorized consumption. However, the breakdown of NRW into its two main components real and administrative which refers to the unbilled authorized consumption plus apparent losses is not an easy or straight forward task. Methods reported in the literature for the breakdown of NRW into its components are top down approach and bottom up approach. Both approaches suffer from certain limitations and shortcomings that limits their use and reduce our confidence in the results obtained by them. This paper presents a methodology that can be used to draw a line between the real and the administrative losses with an acceptable level of accuracy. This methodology is based on the fact that the administrative losses are delivered to the demand site and consequently reach the wastewater collection system whereas the real losses are lost from the system and consequently do not reach the wastewater collection system. The methodology applies water balance from the water treatment plant outlet till the inlet of the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). The mass balance approach of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system was implemented for this purpose. In this methodology, the breakdown of NRW into its two main components is adjusted iteratively so that the difference between WEAP calculated and measured inflow to the WWTP is minimal. The presented methodology was applied to Amman and Zarqa cities in Jordan which return their wastewater to As Samra WWTP. The results showed that this methodology is capable of dividing NRW water into its two main components with an acceptable level of accuracy.     

Risk Assessment of Factors Influencing Non-Revenue Water Using Bayesian Networks and Fuzzy Logic

This paper aims to initially, identify effective factors of Non Revenue Water (NRW) and its three major components: apparent losses, real losses and non-revenue authorized consumptions in water distribution networks. In the next step, they should be ranked according to their potential in the reduction of the amount of NRW. Besides, incidence of each NRW components imposes some special economic and social impacts. In the present study, by considering data scarcity and uncertainty of the available data and information, risk assessment of NRW and its components has been done through two stages. The first stage is initiated by designing a questionnaire so as to collect data and information about 41 identified parameters in part of Tehran Water and Wastewater Company as the research pilot. Then, in order to demonstrate the probability relationships between factors influencing NRW components, Bayesian Network (BN) is used. At the end of this stage, the parameters are prioritized in terms of their impact. Through the following stage, consequences of NRW components existence are identified and fuzzified, to consider their uncertainty. After that, based on the risk definition and Fuzzy Inference Systems )FIS( concept, fuzzified probability and consequences are combined and NRW components’ risk is calculated. In this study, the calculated risk of NRW components in the study area are “Moderately High” and equal to 7.05, 6.95 and 6.4 for apparent loss, real loss and non-revenue authorized consumptions, respectively which means that decision makers and managers of this district should take serious actions to reduce the amount of risk.     

A System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Temporary Water Transfers in the Mexican Conchos Basin

The flows of the Rio Conchos are of vital economic importance not only to the agricultural sector in the Mexican side of the Rio Grande basin but also for meeting Mexico’s obligation to deliver water to the United States. During the previous decade, a severe drought dramatically decreased the basin’s runoff, generating serious economic, social, and political problems in both countries. A System Dynamics (SD) model designed to serve as a decision-support system (DSS) for water managers has been created. This DSS is a lumped semi-distributed model operating on a monthly basis. This DSS incorporates the most important elements of the Conchos basin’s water resources system: main rivers, irrigation distribution canals, reservoirs, aquifer, and the three Irrigation Districts. The DSS simulates different short and long term scenarios combining inside and outside Irrigation Districts (IDs). Also, different short scenarios are implemented to investigate the benefits of water transfer from México to the United States. This study has prompted awareness with regards to the degree of complexity and uncertainty of the water right allocation process to different economic variables such as crop yield, production costs, crop prices, subsidies, and water distribution efficiencies.     

Decision Support for the Selection of Measures according to the Requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive

One major scientific challenge posed by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is the design of a decision support process that meets the Directive’s requirement to achieve “good status” for all water bodies using a cost-effective combination of measures. This paper presents BASINFORM, a new decision methodology for selecting cost-effective management measures, developed in close co-operation with the water authorities and tested in the 5,154 km2 mesoscale river Weisse Elster in central Germany. BASINFORM comprises (i) a procedure for framing the specific problems in the water bodies, including quantification of the need for action, (ii) modelling tools for quantifying the impacts of management measures, and (iii) a method for selecting cost-effective combinations of measures. One innovative feature of BASINFORM is that it structures the complex decision problems appropriately for practical use and provides an easy-to-use framework for integrating scientific and practical knowledge. A trial run applying BASINFORM to the Weisse Elster catchment revealed that good surface water status with respect to nutrient levels cannot be achieved if only the “standard” actions of current water management are taken to reduce point sources (sewage treatment) and diffuse agricultural sources. It also became clear that the nutrient-reduction measures available will generate considerable costs. The application of BASINFORM in this case study demonstrated its practical applicability in the WFD implementation process. Beyond the case study described here BASINFORM is currently being used for practical implementation of the WFD in the German Federal State of Thuringia.     

Analysis of Arizona's Water Resources System

An analysis of Arizona's water resources system has been implemented. This study uses a qualitative system analysis approach to evaluate the most important components of the system: water supply, water demand, laws and regulations, stakeholders, decision makers, etc. Moreover, the investigation centres on some key components of the water resources system such as water conservation in active management areas (AMA), rural Arizona, population growth, and water rights transfers. This study provides insights on these important components, identifies factors that can be enhanced and offers suggestions for improving them. The overall goal of this analysis is to contribute ideas that will help to establish a more efficient and holistic programme to secure sustainable development of water resources.     

A Decision Support System to Improve Water Resources Management in the Conchos Basin

The Conchos basin is the largest tributary to the lower part of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo basin. During recent years a severe drought has affected México’s ability to deliver water from the Conchos basin as required by the 1944 Treaty. In addition, it has generated not only economic problems in the USA and México but also political frictions between these two countries. The Mexican Conchos river has historically contributed with the highest amount of water to USA as established on the water treaty. A Decision Support System (DSS) was developed for the Conchos basin in order to gain a better understanding of the water resources management process in the basin, and to identify the alternatives to improve the cited process. The DSS is a semi-distributed model, based on System Dynamics, and developed using Powersim software. The DSS has been used to evaluate 25 long and short tem water resources allocation alternatives for the two main basin’s users: Irrigation Districts and Water Treaty. Some of the most important factors being tested on the 25 water management alternatives include National Commission of Water’s yearly water allocation policy, reservoir operation rules, improvement on water distribution efficiencies, etc. The DSS model shows that the historic water resources allocation implemented by the Federal government produces adequate results as compared with the other tested water management alternatives. However, for short term drought scenarios, it is showed that there could be other management alternatives that could perform better than the current water management allocation. In general, the DSS shows what we already expect of dynamic models of systems to provide that understanding the effects of multiple interacting variables in necessary to develop good natural resource management policies.     

Design and Implementation of an Integrated High Resolution Imaging Ground Penetrating Radar for Water Pipeline Rehabilitation

Accurate and timely detection of leaks in water supply pipes is a significant environmental issue. Development of efficient non-invasive methods would lead into significant water saving and prevention of health hazards introduced by water leakage. This paper shows the ability to use a high resolution ground penetrating imaging radar (GPIR), to be used as an instrument for water pipeline rehabilitation situations, parallel to the existing industrial equipment. In the framework of the European research initiative WATERPIPE, a decision support system (DSS) for the rehabilitation management of the underground water pipelines has been developed, parallel to the implementation of the GPIR.     

Planning, modelling and assessing source control concepts on catchment scale.

Today's water management practice was identified often not to be consistently structured. Usually the decision space is not clearly depicted and then systematically explored. Often stakeholders are involved too late and many objectives are neglected. An adaptive DSS is being developed to help overcoming these problems. Core of the DSS is a "decision matrix", which has been implemented as a web based application (www.wsm300.de). The management objectives are represented by the indicators labelling the rows. They will be the result of a discussion of the objectives and problems in the specific sub-basin, which is supported by the catalogue of indicators. The columns of the matrix are specified by the scenarios whose development is supported by the database of measures and a Geographical Information System (GIS). The matrix, once the labels are defined, serves as a plot for the planning process, defining clearly which objectives have to be considered and which indicator-values have to be calculated. The DSS further includes a concept and tools for the combination of existing software components and supports the processing of model-outputs to indicator-values. Filled with the indicator-values the matrix allows a comparison of the scenarios and provides a good base for a decision. Multi-criteria decision aid methods can (if desired) further help to find the optimal scenario and to mediate between stakeholders. Finding the optimal scenario will likely be an iterative process.     

A SDSS-based Ecological-economic Modelling Approach for Integrated River Basin Management on Different Scale Levels – The Project FLUMAGIS

Spatial and planning support for the implementation of the European water framework directive (WFD) requires interdisciplinary approaches for assessment, deficit analysis, and scenario investigation. To support the implementation of the WFD, the paper presents the innovative spatial decision support system (SDSS) approach from the FLUMAGIS project which is based on the integration of methods for ecological and socio-economic assessment, scale-specific modelling, knowledge processing and techniques for visualization. The project has developed an interactive tool for the assessment and (three-dimensional) visualization of the hydrological and ecological conditions in river basins and economic aspects of river basin management measures. The tool is designed to increase awareness of catchment scale hydrological and ecological issues. The paper presents the structure of the FLUMAGIS prototype and provides examples of scale-specific recommendations for management measures to improve water quality and hydrologic conditions in the Upper Ems river basin (Northwest Germany).     

Harmonised Principles for Public Participation in Quality Assurance of Integrated Water Resources Modelling

The main purpose of public participation in integrated water resources modelling is to improve decision-making by ensuring that decisions are soundly based on shared knowledge, experience and scientific evidence. The present paper describes stakeholder involvement in the modelling process. The point of departure is the guidelines for quality assurance for ‘scientific‘ water resources modelling developed under the EU research project HarmoniQuA, which has developed a computer based Modelling Support Tool (MoST) to provide a user-friendly guidance and a quality assurance framework that aim for enhancing the credibility of river basin modelling. MoST prescribes interaction, which is a form of participation above consultation but below engagement of stakeholders and the public in the early phases of the modelling cycle and under review tasks throughout the process. MoST is a flexible tool which supports different types of users and facilitates interaction between modeller, manager and stakeholders. The perspective of using MoST for engagement of stakeholders e.g. higher level participation throughout the modelling process as part of integrated water resource management is evaluated.     

三峡梯调水调系统与监控系统数据交换原理与实现

针对三峡梯级调度中心水调自动化系统与监控系统及决策支持系统（DSS）的数据交换问题，结合工程实践经验给出了一套解决方案。该方案成功地实现了三峡梯调水调系统与监控系统机组数据、闸门数据及水情数据信息的交互，水调系统与DSS和监控系统的发电计划数据交互。实践证明，该方案高效、稳定。     

城市供水产销差率与漏损控制研究进展

针对产销差率居高不下这一供水行业问题,研究了供水产销差率的定义和组成、水平衡分析、国内外供水产销差率及漏损现状,以及当前控制产销差率、漏损率的技术和方法,如DMA(district metering area)分区、管网压力控制、检漏工具和管网建模等。降低产销差率是一项综合性的任务,需各种措施共同施用,才能有效提升供水企业的效益。     

A Business-As-Usual Scenario Analysis for the Po Basin-North Adriatic Continuum

The aim of this paper was to analyse Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenarios for addressing the eutrophication issue of the Po Basin-North Adriatic coastal zone continuum. A multidisciplinary approach was developed combining Ecologic and Economic disciplines being a relevant step for shaping cost-effective strategies aiming to achieve the water quality targets as required by the Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC and by the Italian D.lgs. 152 of the 2006. The BAU scenarios analysed suggest an increase of nutrient load (2.1–4.6% for nitrogen and 0.4–5% for phosphorus) if the current programme of measures will not be modified implying that Water Qualitative Objectives (WQOs) will not be achieved by the year 2015 (Art. 4 of WFD). The methodological approach described in this paper should be used as Decision Support System (DSS) aiming to support environmental planning process under both the WFD and the Italian D.lgs. 152 of the 2006.     

济南黄河防汛指挥调度决策支持系统研究

济南黄河防汛指挥调度决策支持系统是面向防汛决策指挥，利用现代化技术，协助决策者完成决策的应用软件系统。系统以SuperMap为地理信息平台，以MSSQLServer网络数据库为数据交互层，利用多种方法综合处理信息和显示计算结果。系统已经开发完毕，经过专家验收后投入运行阶段．在防汛工作中初步发挥了作用。     

黄河防洪调度软件系统分析与结构设计

黄河防洪调度系统，是黄河防洪决策支持系统的一个子系统。黄河防洪决策是一个复杂的，半结构决策过程，防洪调度是整个决策过程的关键环节。该系统在实时汛情信息处理系统，防洪工程数据库，地理社经数据库等外部系统的支持下，分析雨情，水情，工情实况，预测未来的发展趋势；根据暴雨，洪水预报，制定防洪工程运用方案，进行方案优劣及风险分析，为防洪决策提供信息支持。本文通过对黄河防洪调度决策过程和决策问题的初步分析，探     

The Use of Participatory Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks and Agro-Economic Models for Groundwater Management in Spain

This paper describes the development of a participatory decision support system for water management in the Upper Guadiana basin in central Spain where there has long been competition for groundwater resources between the agricultural sector and the environment. In the last few decades the rapid development of irrigation has led to the over-exploitation of the Mancha Occidental aquifer, the main water source in the area; this in turn has led to the loss of ecologically important wetlands. Against this background the River Basin Authority (RBA) has designed a new water management plan aimed at reducing water consumption. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of these measures on both the environment and the agricultural sector. To this end stakeholders have been invited to actively participate in the development of a decision support system (DSS) based on the combination of an agro-economic model and an object-oriented Bayesian network. This DSS has been used to evaluate the trade-off between agriculture and the environment for different management options at different scales. Results indicate that achieving even a partial recovery of the aquifer water levels will require strict enforcement by the RBA of water restrictions on farmers combined with a high offer price for the purchase of water rights. However, compliance with water restrictions inevitably leads to losses in farm income, especially in small vineyard farms, unless additional measures are taken to compensate for those potential losses. The purchase of water rights alone is insufficient to ensure the recovery of water levels; accompanying measures included in the new regional management plan will also need to be undertaken.     

Performance indicators for the efficiency analysis of urban drainage systems.

Performance indicators implemented in a decision support system (DSS) for the technical, managerial and economic evaluation of urban drainage systems (UDS), called MOMA FD, are presented. Several kinds of information are collected and processed by MOMA FD to evaluate both present situation and future scenarios of development and enhancement. Particular interest is focused on the evaluation of the environmental impact, which is considered a very relevant factor in the decision making process to identify the priorities for UDS improvements.     

Decision Support Systems for Sustainable Management of Water Resources: 2. Case Studies

ABSTRACT

The new ethic of sustainable development extends the main principles of water resources management. Computer-based decision support systems are explored in order to identify their role in the implementation of these principles into water resource management practice. The first part of this research (see the previous article in this issue) has demonstrated that sustainable development is a global concept that needs to be made reality in any component of every decision support system to be developed for successful management of water resources. This article presents four successful case studies of decision support systems (DSSs) for sustainable management of water resources. Development of a DSS for sustainable water resource management is seen as a process, and while the issues covered in these four examples are the priorities in their respective domains, it is certain that new issues will emerge in different fields of application. So, what is presented here is thus a snapshot of current best efforts