基于改进粒子群算法的水库优化调度研究

对粒子群优化算法易陷入局部最优的缺点作了改进,提出了一种带有扰动项的改进的粒子群优化算法,并将其应用于水电站水库优化调度中。实例计算证明,改进后的粒子群优化算法具有较好的全局搜索能力,能够有效克服陷入局部最优的缺点,是水库优化调度比较有效的方法。     

浅谈综合利用水库兴利调度图的绘制

针对多目标综合利用水库兴利运行调度图的绘制,结合工程设计中的体会,探讨绘制运行调度图的方法,以供参考。     

Reliability analysis for reservoir water supply due to uncertainties in hydrological factors,rainfall-runoff routing and operating rule curves

This study aims at developing a reliability-analysis model (RA_WS_RES) to quantify the effect of variations in uncertainties factors regarding the reservoir inflow and outflow at various 10-day periods on the reliability of water supply from the reservoir. The uncertainty factors considered are classified into three types: the hydrological factors (rainfall, baseflow, and initial water level of the reservoir), the reservoir operation rules for the water-allocation model (RIBASIM), and the parameters of rainfall-runoff model (i.e. Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting, SAC-SMA). In the proposed RA_WS_RES model, the reliability of the water supply attributed to the uncertainty factors considered can be quantified by collaborating the multivariate Monte Carlo simulation (MMCS) methods and uncertainty-risk (advanced first order and second moment, AFOSM) analysis. Shihmen Reservoir watershed in Northern Taiwan is selected as the study area and four associated demand nodes are regarded as the study nodes; the hourly rainfall data from 1987 to 2014 and other hydrological data (i.e. rainfall, baseflow, and initial water level of the reservoir) as well as the operation rule curves are adopted in the model development and application. The results from the numerical experiences indicate that among the uncertainty factors concerned, the average rainfall depth at the current 10-day period and the range between the lower and critical levels are more sensitive to the estimation of water supply from Shihmen Reservoir. Additionally, the impact of variation in baseflow on the reliability of the water supply from Shihmen Reservoir should be taken into account, especially in the dry season. In addition to rainfall and baseflow, the initial water level should be an important source for the water supply, and its effect gradually reduces with the 10-day period. Furthermore, the reliability of water supply is obviously impacted by the uncertainty in the range between the lower and critical rule level, especially in the dry season, due to its range being adversely related with the water supply. Eventually, the proposed RA_WS_RES model can effectively and reasonably quantify the reliability of water supply attributed to variations in uncertainty factors at different 10-day period under the consideration of climate change.     

Optimization and simulation modelling for operation of the Zayandeh Rud Reservoir

This paper combines optimization (LINGO) and simulation (HEC-ResSim) models to determine monthly operating rules for the Zayandeh Rud Reservoir system in Iran. Based on the optimized flow determined in the single-objective framework, system behaviour was simulated over 47 years. The results show that optimizing the operation of Zayandeh Rud Reservoir could increase its storage by 88.9% and increase the reliability index of regulated water for all downstream demands by over 10%.     

三峡水库实时调度水文气象预报应用风险及控制

为量化水文气象预报误差对水库实时预报调度的影响,以三峡水库为例,基于其历年水文气象预报信息的误差分析成果,假定入库过程,并叠加对应不同概率的预报误差,以此作为水库调洪演算模型的输入。分析了不同预见期、不同保证率水文气象误差条件下,不超过风险控制点的库水位指标,提出了三峡水库实时预报调度风险控制策略,可为水库科学调度提供参考。     

黄松峪水库洪水风险调度分析

从水库风险调度的基本原理出发,针对当年调节水库,以黄松峪水库为研究对象,在将其安全目标和效益目标综合考虑后,提出并建立黄松峪水库洪水风险调度方法,并对黄松峪水库风险调度的方法进行了风险评估。     

青山水库洪水预报调度系统及其应用

介绍青山水库洪水预报调度系统的组成、功能和应用，以及近几年应用该系统的一些经验。     

改进的粒子群算法在水库优化调度中应用

针对水库优化调度中存在的规模庞大、结构复杂,涉及大量的决策变量和复杂的约束条件,呈现出高维度、非线性、强约束特性,传统的优化方法难以直接求解或者计算效率低,存在早熟等问题。为了提高粒子群算法全局搜索能力和收敛性能,把下山搜索策略引入到粒子群智能算法中,提出了改进的粒子群算法。函数测试证明该方法改进了算法的鲁棒性,提高了算法求解效率。上述优化算法应用于水库优化调度模型求解中,计算结果表明:该方法易于实现,求解效率高,为水库优化调度模型求解提供了新的途径。     

水库中长期发电优化调度解析方法及应用

水库中长期发电优化调度是实现水能资源高效利用的重要技术手段。由于水库特性曲线的离散数值表达,现行水库中长期发电优化调度模型与求解方法主要集中在数值方法层面,且优化计算效率低下。针对这一问题,提出了水库中长期发电优化调度的解析方法,即通过水库特性曲线的函数化,建立了优化调度的解析函数模型,并基于POA算法原理提出了解析优化方法——APOA算法。通过实例应用和传统方法对比研究表明,该方法在保证计算精度的前提下,长系列优化计算时间仅为POA算法的1/20。因此,该方法不仅具有算法稳定、计算效率高的特点,而且在水库中长期发电优化调度的解析研究途径方面进行了有益的探索。     

供水水库优化模拟风险调度模式的研究

针对水库调度过程中的风险问题,引入了供水水库调度的优化模拟风险管理模式.首先建立了供水水库群的优化调度模型,然后对度量风险的可靠性、脆弱性、回弹性、事故周期等指标作了论述.在此基础上,模拟水库调度过程中存在的风险,并通过模拟与优化的反馈机制,建立了供水水库优化模拟风险调度的总体模式.     

葠窝水库径流模拟与验证及水库调度方案探析

由于太子河已治理多年,水环境质量在很大程度得到改善,但太子河的二焦、沈阳站等重要河段仍存在严重的污染问题,为了解决上述问题,本研究基于葠窝水库的角度,对水库的水量和水质进行了数值拟合,并对水库调度方案进行了初步分析,为太子河流域水库群与闸坝的联合运行提供了方案,使得生态环境用水和农业用水的水质改善提供水量保证。     

水库电站与径流电站联合运用方式和效益

电力系统中水电站联合调度，可以增加水电站群的电力效益。目前，国内电力系统中水库电站对径流电站补偿调节研究较少，本文目的是对这２种电站联合运用方式和补偿调节计算方法进行探讨。     

Selecting risk levels in chance-constrained reservoir operation modeling: A fuzzy set approach

Many modifications, extensions, discussions, and evaluations of chance-constrained reservoir operating models have been reported in the technical literature. Lack of economic data and the fact that the establishment of acceptable risk levels in these types of models involves a human factor with all its vagueness of perception, subjectivity, and attitudes may not permit proper application of either reliability or multiobjective programming approaches. This paper presents a unique methodology for handling a practical problem of selecting risk levels in chance-constrained reservoir operation modeling. The proposed methodology is based on fuzzy set theory. Two types of fuzzy sets are used in the formulation of the reservoir long-term planning model, one for constraints and one for the objective function. An iterative solution algorithm for deriving an optimal decision using fuzzy set operations and the chance-constrained approach is developed and presented. A practical application of the approach demonstrates the feasibility and efficiency of both the proposed approach and its iterative search procedure for selecting risk levels in chance-constrained reservoir modeling.     

多目标可变模糊优选模型及其在水库调度中的应用

综合利用的水库兴利调度通常考虑的是多目标问题,并且部分目标存在模糊性,可以应用多目标优化决策模型进行决策。为尽可能消除决策过程中的人为性,本文以白石水库为工程背景,针对该水库兴利调度决策的实际情况,采用多目标可变模糊优选模型进行决策。详细阐述了决策过程,决策结果可为水库的实际运行提供参考。     

模拟最大熵法及其在水库泄洪风险计算中的应用

基于随机模拟(Monte-Corlo)和最大熵方法的优点,提出了风险计算的模拟最大熵法,并建立了相应的数学模型.将该方法应用于水库工程的泄洪风险计算,并对其计算结果进行了验证、分析和比较.结果表明,在信息相同的条件下,此方法不但可以充分利用已知条件,得到待求的概率分布及风险值,而且在计算速度上也比随机模拟方法快20多倍...     

基于协商对策的多目标群决策模型及其在白石水库调度中的应用

针对水库兴利调度决策的多目标性和群决策特点,重点研究了基于协商对策的多目标群决策模型。以白石水库为工程背景,分析了决策群体间利益和冲突性,构筑了由冲突双方和仲裁方组成的三方仲裁局势,详细阐述了模型的决策过程。通过对该水库的可行兴利调度方案集进行优化决策,最终得到满意方案,为白石水库的实际运行提供依据。文中研究与应用的决策模型也可用于类似的决策分析中。     

水库洪水资源利用风险决策模型构建及应用

洪水资源利用可以缓解水资源短缺问题,但也存在风险,有必要对洪水资源利用的风险进行研究。基于洪水资源利用风险率最小、风险效益最大和风险损失最小的原则,构建了水库洪水资源利用多目标风险决策模型,该模型采用概率论与数理统计法计算风险率,C-D生产函数法与能值法计算风险效益,洪水淹没面积与单位面积损失法计算风险损失,用约束法求解模型的多目标决策问题。以江苏省石梁河水库为实例,运用风险决策模型找到了石梁河水库洪水资源利用的最佳均衡解,验证了模型的有效性与适用性。     

基于风险矩阵的水库风险评价方法研究与应用

水库的安全运行一直是防汛工作的重点,以中型水库为例,科学划分评价单元,辨识运行管理的危险源和风险点,采用风险矩阵法(LS法)对风险进行评价,按风险值将风险等级划分为重大风险、较大风险、一般风险和低风险,对风险按照等级进行分类管理,便于管理单位有重点、有针对性地制定措施以减低风险,提高管理的安全性,对类似水库安全运行管理...     

水库防洪调度会商模式设计与应用

对水库实时防洪调度中涉及的不确定性因素进行分析,从而筛选形成会商因子集;提出水库实时防洪会商系统的设计原则和总体框架;并提出了会商初始方案的生成方式、会商主界面功能设计、会商方案集管理、会商系统前台界面与后台支持模型系统的耦合原理以及会商过程中相关辅助功能的实现方式。在全国数十座大型水库防洪调度中的实际应用表明,这一会商模式较为理想。     

崇青水库洪水预报调度系统开发和应用

以崇青水库洪水预报调度系统开发和应用为背景,在分析其工作现状和存在问题基础上,从系统功能需求分析、系统详细设计和系统应用与管理方面分别进行了论述,阐述了崇青水库洪水预报调度系统的开发建设过程,洪水预报调度的方法,崇青水库洪水预报调度系统应用,并提出了提高洪水预报精度的一些想法,该系统的建设对提高崇青水库洪水预报调度工作水平起到了重要作用.