系统论方法在水文模拟技术中的应用

流域水文是自然界中由许多因素相互作用而产生的一种复杂的现象，本文首先阐述了水文研究发展中的系统思想，然后结合流域水文模拟技术，剖析了系统论方法在流域水文模拟中的应用。     

南水北调中线受水区分布式水文模型子流域划分研究

从空间尺度上对分布式水文模拟进行了分类,提出了区域分布式水文模拟的概念.根据区域分布式水文模拟的特点,提出了针对不完整流域进行分布式水文模拟时,研究范围的确定原则.同时通过引入流域入口点,实现了一种基于Pfafstetter编码规则的区域分布式水文模型子流域划分方法,并成功应用到南水北调中线受水区.另外,在该方法中还包括了对狭长子流域的进一步自动细分及根据水文站、水库位置进一步细分子流域的功能.     

月水量平衡模型在中国不同气候区的应用

概念性水文模型是目前评价环境变化对区域水文水资源影响的有力工具,大尺度水文模拟是气候变化影响评价中的关键技术.利用10个位于我国不同气候区的代表性流域的水文气象资料.验证了月水量平衡模型在不同气候区的应用效果.结果表明:月水量平衡模型能够适用于我国不同气候区的月流量过程模拟,其中,对湿润半湿润地区的模拟精度好于干旱半干旱地区的模拟效果;若流域内降水径流量关系密切,则水文模拟的效果也会较好.人类活动的影响,使得长序列水文模拟误差增大,但不同人类活动类型对流域水文模拟效果的影响是不同的.     

流域水文模型研究综述

流域水文模拟是用数学的方法描述和模拟水文循环的过程.按照水文循环运动的物理规律和空间变化规律介绍了流域水文模型的分类及其特点,回顾了流域水文过程模型的研究进展,总结、介绍了国内外分布式流域水文模型的开发研究成果,结合当前流域水文模型研究中存在的尺度、非线性、模型动态耦合等主要问题,提出了发展方向。     

LL-Ⅲ模型在美国Baron Fork流域的应用

有物理基础的流域分布式水文模型对流域产汇流以及对洪水过程的模拟与预报一直是水文研究的重点.分析了美国Baron Fork流域的降雨产汇流特性,应用基于DEM的LL-Ⅲ水文模型对Baron Fork流域进行产汇流模拟及洪水预报,结果表明,从模型模拟精度来看,该水文模型在Baron Fork流域洪水预报、流量模拟应用中取得了较好的效果,可以在水文、地质、地貌、气候等方面与该地区类似的流域推广.     

数字水文模型在漳河观台以上集水区域的应用

结合当前地形处理技术及数字高程模型,生成了观台以上集水区域的数字流域.在此基础上,在子流域内分别建立新安江模型,并构建观台以上数字水文模型.应用此数字水文模型完成对流域内的5次历史洪水的模拟,将模拟结果与传统水文模型的结果进行了对比.分析表明,此数字水文模型具有一定的精度,为建立完全的数字水文模型提供了必要的研究基础.     

新安江模型参数变化对流域降雨径流过程的影响分析

水文模型可以模拟自然流域的降雨径流过程,在降雨径流过程模拟中,水文模型参数的选择往往会影响模型对流域径流过程的模拟效果.针对新安江模型,以陕西黑河金盆水库流域为研究流域,分析新安江模型参数变化对模拟流域降雨径流过程的影响,以确定新安江模型参数的敏感程度,从而服务于研究流域的汛期水文预报参数修正.模拟结果表明:在研究流域新安江模型参数中KKSS、KKG、WLM、WDM、kg、k为敏感参数,对模拟流域降雨径流过程的影响较大;参数WUM、IMP、B、c、SM、EX为不敏感参数,对模拟流域降雨径流过程影响较小.     

基于BTOPMC的无资料区水文模拟及相似性分析

针对稀缺资料地区分布式水文模型无法直接应用的问题,以无径流观测资料的西充河流域(西充境内)为研究区、以相近的李子溪流域为参证流域,建立了BTOPMC模型进行流域水文相似性分析,并采用参数移植法模拟研究区径流过程。结果表明：参证流域径流模拟结果良好,经参数转移之后的BTOPMC模型具有一定的适用性。该方法解决了水文模型在参数移植构成中的不确定性问题,可为其他无观测资料流域的模拟提供借鉴。     

分布式水文模型EasyDHM在海河阜平流域的应用

目前很多分布式水文模型还主要应用在科研领域,缺乏在实际的水管理业务中的应用。分布式水文模型EasyDHM的开发则以实用为目的,着重关注模拟效果及建模效率。模型具有友好的操作界面,适用于各种时空尺度的流域水文模拟,并且模型易于扩展,可进行水资源评价。以海河流域阜平水文站以上流域为研究对象,应用EasyDHM模型进行流域水文模拟,通过对模型参数进行敏感性分析及率定,使阜平流域率定期及验证期Nash效率系数达到0．96。分析表明,EasyDHM模型在阜平流域具有很好的适用性。     

分布式水文模拟模型在流域水资源管理中的应用

旨在通过对国外比较流行的分布式流域水文模拟模型的介绍，对比分析各类模型的总体结构、特点及适应领域，结合在流域水资源管理中的应用，为流域水资源管理部门及相关研究工作人员在进行流域水文模拟模型选用时提供参考。     

REGIONAL FRAMEWORKS APPLIED TO HYDROLOGY: CAN LANDSCAPE‐BASED FRAMEWORKS CAPTURE THE HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY?

Regional frameworks have been used extensively in recent years to aid in broad‐scale management. Widely used landscape‐based regional frameworks, such as hydrologic landscape regions (HLRs) and physiographic provinces, may provide predictive tools of hydrologic variability. However, hydrologic‐based regional frameworks, created using only streamflow data, are also available and have been created at various scales; thus, relating frameworks that share a common purpose can be informative. In addition, identifying how the relative importance of variables change in governing streamflow with respect to scale can also be informative. The purpose of this study was to determine whether landscape‐based frameworks could explain variation in streamflow classifications and in the hydrologic variables used in their creation. We also evaluated how climate and watershed‐based variables govern the divergence of different flow classifications at two different scales. HLRs and physiographic provinces poorly predicted flow class affiliation within our study and for the entire USA, although physiographic provinces explained more variability. We also found that HLRs explained very little variation in individual hydrologic parameters. Using variables summarized at the watershed scale, we found that climate will play a larger role in influencing hydrology across the entire US, whereas soils may govern variation in hydrology at smaller scales. Our results suggest that predictor variables, developed at the watershed scale, may be the most appropriate at explaining hydrology and that the variables used in creating regional landscape‐based frameworks may be more useful than the frameworks themselves. In addition, managers should be careful when using landscape‐based regional classifications for stream management because the scale of their construction may be too broad to capture differences in flow variability. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

赣州水文科技发展回顾与思考

本文回顾了“十五”以来赣州市水文局在水文科技方面取得的重要成果,分析了当前水文科技存在的主要问题,结合赣州水文特性、流域特点、赣州水文未来的发展与赣南苏区振兴发展对水文要求,对赣州水文科技发展的重点和策略进行了分析和探讨。     

基于DEM和GIS的流域水文信息提取——以巴中市为例

为了探讨基于DEM和GIS的流域水文信息提取过程中阈值确定的有关问题,应用ArcGIS中的Hydrology水文分析工具,对巴中市水域的水文信息提取进行了研究。研究结果表明:1汇流累积量与河网密度、流域面积满足二阶导数关系,利用导数关系能够有效确定河网提取阈值。2阈值对河网信息提取具有较大的影响,阈值越小,河网越稠密。当阈值达到8500时,提取的河网密度和面积基本趋于稳定且与实际水系基本符合。3实际地形特征、原始DEM数据可能存在的误差以及其他人为因素等都会对水文提取结果产生影响。     

Deterministic Insight into ANN Model Performance for Storm Runoff Simulation

The artificial neural network (ANN) theory has been widely applied to practical applications in hydrology. Since watershed rainfall–runoff processes are nonlinear and exhibit spatial and temporal variability, the ANN model, which considers watershed nonlinear characteristics, can usually but not always obtain satisfactory simulation results. The training of an ANN network is based completely on the reliability of the available hydrologic records. The objective of this study was to provide deterministic insight into the limitations of storm runoff simulation when using ANN. Hydrologic records of 42 storm events from two watersheds in Taiwan were adopted for analysis. A deterministic runoff model was used to classify the hydrologic records into “usual” and “unusual” storm events. The analytical results show that the ANN model could provide good simulation results for “usual” storm events; however, its performance was poor when it was applied to “unusual” storm events because no consistent hydrologic characteristics could be extracted from the storm event records using ANN. The success of the ANN model in usual storm discharge simulations may be mainly due to the input vectors including the previous observed discharge. Moreover, the number of past periods of rainfall that were set as the input vectors of the ANN model was found to be highly correlated with the watershed time of concentration. It can be used to efficiently determine the ANN network structure instead of using iterative network training.     

水文学前沿科学问题之我见

认为水文时间序列年际演变、降雨空间分布及动态变化、水文现象与下垫面的关系、优先流、坡面流、水文尺度转换、水文模型的"异参同效"、水文非线性等问题是当前面临的主要水文学前沿科学问题。论述这些问题的科学内涵、突破的可能切入点,以及对水文学进一步发展的推动作用。指出水文学的前沿科学问题应与时俱进。期待有更多的学者,尤其是青年学者来关心、发现、探讨水文学前沿科学问题。     

The Improvement in GWLF Model Simulation Performance in Watershed Hydrology by Changing the Transport Framework

The correct and reasonable delineation of actual hydrologic processes is a footstone for the effective simulation of pollutants in watershed models. In this study, a simple but comprehensive semidistributed modeling approach based on the generalized watershed loading function (GWLF) was modified to enable the accurate simulation of hydrology in watersheds. The frame of the original GWLF model (ORM), with a lumped hydrological parameter, was modified by adding channel routing processes, which made it possible to introduce the concept of subbasins. Then, the revised GWLF model was applied to the Luanhe watershed (30,000 km²) on a monthly bias in comparison with the ORM and the previously revised version. The sensitivity analysis and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) uncertainty analysis were individually conducted to evaluate these modifications. Eventually, we compared four extreme conditions for the daily streamflow simulations of the three model versions in the Tunxi watershed but without calibration. All of the results indicated that the stability and accuracy of the model and the validity of the parameters were all enhanced and improved by the new revised version of the model, which provided reliable simulation results and indicated that it is a prospective tool to support watershed management.

     

El Niño–Southern Oscillation Link to South Florida Hydrology and Water Management Applications

This study evaluates the relationships between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and South Florida hydrology and proposes applications to water management decision making. ENSO relations to the Upper Kissimmee Basin rainfall, watershed for Lake Okeechobee, and cumulative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at Niño 3.4 were evaluated. Additionally, relationship between ENSO and Lake Okeechobee inflows, Arbuckle Creek and Josephine Creek flows were analyzed. Hydrology of the northern watersheds of the South Florida water management system is linked to ENSO events. Dry season (November–May) rainfall and flows are higher than average during El Niño years and lower during La Niña years, at the 90% confidence level or higher. The relationship is strongest when the ENSO event is strong as shown with analysis of correlation. ENSO prediction has more certainty than hydrologic prediction for a region. Identifying ENSO and hydrologic relationships can aid water management decision making by providing a lead-time of months to mitigate drought or flood impacts. The ENSO tracking method, which was published in a previous study, is presented to track ENSO strength and event type to provide supplemental outlook on dry season rainfall for Lake Okeechobee operations. Lake Okeechobee, which is the main storage in the South Florida water management system, is regulated by a schedule with a limited band of stage fluctuation because of susceptibility of the Herbert Hoover Dike to wave erosion and seepage at high stages. An early decision making approach to storage management with respect to ENSO related hydrology, is presented based on tracking the strength of ENSO events.     

基于DEM和ArcGIS的浐灞流域水文特征提取研究

基于DEM数据,在ArcGIS环境下,提取浐灞流域的坡度、坡向地形特征以及不同集水阈值下的流向、河网密度、河源数等水文信息。结果表明:集水阈值和河网密度、汇流面积之间存在幂函数关系,阈值越大,河网越稀疏;对其二阶求导确定了流域的最佳阈值为8000,避免了以往确定阈值的主观随机性。运用ArcGIS嵌套软件TauDEM提取了最佳阈值的河网,并利用Strahler法对河网进行了分级。提取的河网与浐灞自然水系基本吻合,流域地形水文特征符合流域概况,可直接作为水文模型参数,为浐灞流域的分级管理提供数据支持,该方法提高了建立流域水文模型的效率,成本低且精度高。     

数据密集范式与水文学的未来

讨论了水文实验客观上的局限性及进一步发展的困难,论述了提升水文观测技术和方法的重要性及重点发展的若干方面。在分析科学研究数据密集范式产生背景及其强大生命力的基础上,指出水文学研究适合应用数据密集范式的理由,并提出了初步设想。呼吁水文学家应抓住机遇,在大力、深入发展水文遥感的同时,将发展数据水文学提上议事日程,摆到重要位置。展望未来,水文学将是在数据密集范式驱动下,物理水文学、随机水文学、仿真水文学和数据水文学相互补充、融合发展的水文学。     

基于一维水力学法的小流域洪水风险图编制

分析了水文学法、历史水灾法和水力学法在小流域洪水风险分析中的适用性。为了对小流域洪水风险进行有效的管理,预防损失的发生和减少损失发生的影响程度,需要进行小流域洪水风险分区,绘制小流域洪水风险图。以浦江县中余溪小流域洪水风险图编制为例,着重介绍基于一维水力学法的小流域洪水风险图编制方法。