Fuelling costs of nuclear reactors A comparison of CANDY versus PWR nuclear fuel cycle costs using UK data PWR nuclear fuel cycle costs using UK data

Nuclear fuel cycle costs for a single PWR electricity generating station have been calculated and reported as part of the CEGB Proof of Evidence to the Sizewell B Public Inquiry. In the present study, a similar calculation is carried out for a CANDU-type station. The comparison of results shows a considerable advantage in favour of CANDU fuel cycle costs. In view of uncertainties regarding the cost and availability of reprocessing, this cost is not included in the comparison.     

Lessons of nuclear power US and UK history

Most commentators on the history of civil nuclear power have looked at the mistakes which have occurred, but mistakes always happen. What is notable about nuclear power is not the existence of error in its development, but the great cost of mistakes. This is a function of the technology itself. Nuclear plant has a long lead time, large unit size, is capital intensive and heavily dependent on special infrastructure. This makes whatever errors occur in development very costly. Commercial breeders would have the same features, but to an even more marked degree. Mistakes in developing this technology are therefore likely to be even more expensive.     

The world nuclear power scene and UK energy policy in 1984

The world nuclear scene is a patchwork, with a crisis of confidence in most Western countries (with France as the outstanding exception), steady progress in the Eastern bloc, and mixed experience in the LDCs — partly because of lack of interest by developed countries in the production and marketing of small robust nuclear plants with suitable back-up services. The situation in the UK is a microcosm of that in the Western world as a whole. It is compounded by the absence of any coherent energy policy other than an unspoken one of reliance on market forces, combined with short-term expediency, as the dominating element in decisions needing to be taken on individual energy industries.     

Japan's spent fuel and plutonium management challenge

Japan's commitment to plutonium recycling has been explicitly stated in its long-term program since 1956. Despite the clear cost disadvantage compared with direct disposal or storage of spent fuel, the Rokkasho reprocessing plant started active testing in 2006. Japan's cumulative consumption of plutonium has been only 5 tons to date and its future consumption rate is still uncertain. But once the Rokkasho reprocessing plant starts its full operation, Japan will separate about 8 tons of plutonium annually. Our analysis shows that, with optimum use of available at-reactor and away-from-reactor storage capacity, there would be no need for reprocessing until the mid-2020s. With an additional 30,000 tons of away-from-reactor (AFR) spent-fuel storage capacity reprocessing could be avoided until 2050. Deferring operation of the Rokkasho plant, at least until the plutonium stockpile had been worked down to the minimum required level, would also minimize international concern about Japan's plutonium stockpile. The authors are happy to acknowledge Frank von Hippel, Harold Feiveson, Jungming Kang, Zia Mian, M.V. Ramana, and other IPFM members, as well as the generous grant from the MacArthur Foundation for helping make this research possible.     

New nuclear power generation in the UK: Cost benefit analysis

This paper provides an economic analysis of possible nuclear new build in the UK. It compares costs and benefits of nuclear new build against conventional gas-fired generation and low carbon technologies (CCS, wind, etc.). A range of scenarios are considered to allow for uncertainty as regards nuclear and other technology costs, gas prices and carbon prices.     

Communications on energy: Attitudes to fuel choice in UK industry: results of a survey

The results of a survey investigating attitudes to fuel choice among larger industrial consumers are described. The survey was conducted in two parts, the main part in the autumn of 1985, while a follow-up was undertaken following the fall in oil prices in early 1986. The issues covered include: perceived obstacles to fuel switching; attitudes to coal and gas; and responses to lower oil prices. The implications of the survey findings are briefly assessed.     

A proper spent nuclear fuel management strategy could enhance the continuity of nuclear power in the Spanish energy mix

This article presents two economic analyses performed with the Mariño model, which was specially designed to analyse the costs of different spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management strategies in the real Spanish context. These analyses are: (a) a Monte Carlo study for those strategies and (b) the effects of a longer operational lifetime for the Spanish nuclear power plants (NPPs) on the costs of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management. For the first analysis, a triangular distribution for the different unitary costs was assumed and the data and assumptions from numerous studies were used to obtain the values required for the distribution. The second analysis was performed for the current official shutdown dates for the NPPs, and the results were compared to other operational lifetime scenarios. The main assumption for these scenarios was a progressive shutdown of the reactors, in order to avoid numerous shutdowns in a few years. These scenarios were proposed for 40 to 60 years of mean operational lifetime of the reactors. The results show that, for all scenarios analysed, the additional electricity production due to longer operational lifetimes compensate the extra costs caused by the larger amount of SNF to be managed. Additionally, for the current SNF management strategy, a progressive shutdown at 40 years of mean operational lifetime has shown to entail lower costs than the official shutdown scenario. However, a strategy without a centralised interim storage facility would be the most economically favourable one for all the scenarios analysed.     

New nuclear power in the UK: A strategy for energy security?

The aim of this paper is to explore the extent to which the construction of new nuclear power plants in the UK can safeguard or enhance energy security. The paper starts with a discussion of energy security, and breaks it down into four main categories of threat. These include threats due to fossil fuel scarcity and external disruptions, problems due to a lack of investment in infrastructure, threats due to technology or infrastructure failure, and risks due to domestic activism or terrorism. The paper then discusses one of the most common strategies put forward to improve security—the promotion of diversity within energy systems. Following this, the paper assesses the potential for new nuclear investment to ameliorate security threats in each of the four categories introduced earlier in the paper. The paper concludes that whilst nuclear investment can help to mitigate some threats to UK energy security, the government's case for supporting this investment ignores some equally important security issues. As a result, the energy security case for nuclear power has not yet been made.     

Capital stock rotation, conservation and fuel substitution in the UK industrial steam-raising market

This paper summarizes recent research on economic and technological change in the UK steam boiler stock in the industrial and commercial sectors. Whilst some recent econometric analyses have drawn upon capital stock theory, many hypotheses remain untested against empirical data. The paper draws upon insurance company records to examine the key technical characteristics of the boiler stock. In analysing current and prospective boiler fuel requirements, emphasis is placed on the scope for interfuel substitution (especially towards coal) in this major market over the period to 2000.     

US nuclear power performance

During the past decade there has been a steady diminution in the economic expectations and public support for nuclear power in the USA. An increasing number of nuclear plants have been delayed, deferred, or cancelled, and those being completed face unforeseen rising costs. As a result, both the electric utility industry and the public generally perceive nuclear power, based on light water reactor technology, as intrinsically uneconomic and troublesome as a future option for power generation. The authors believe that this is not because of the inherent nature of nuclear power in general or light water reactors in particular. It arises mainly from the adverse regulatory and institutional framework in which electrical utilities and power plant constructors have to operate in the USA.     

An analysis of development and research on spent nuclear fuel reprocessing

Nuclear energy comes back to the discussions on the world stage as an energy source that does not contribute to global warming during production process. It can be chosen as the main source of power generation in some countries or complement the energy matrix in others. In this context, there is the need to develop new technologies for the management of radioactive waste generated by the production process. Final repositories for spent fuel are not yet in commercial operation, and techniques for fuel reprocessing have been developed, because after use, the fuel still has materials that produce energy. Some countries already use reprocessing, and develop research to make it more secure and more competitive, while others prefer to adopt policies to prevent developments in this area due to the problem of nuclear proliferation. In another line of research, new reactors are being developed in order to reduce the amount of waste in energy production and some will be designed to work in closed loop, recycling the materials generated.     

China's spent nuclear fuel management: Current practices and future strategies

Although China's nuclear power industry is relatively young and the management of its spent nuclear fuel is not yet a concern, China's commitment to nuclear energy and its rapid pace of development require detailed analyses of its future spent fuel management policies. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of China's fuel cycle program and its reprocessing policy, and to suggest strategies for managing its future fuel cycle program. The study is broken into four sections. The first reviews China's current nuclear fuel cycle program and facilities. The second discusses China's current spent fuel management methods and the storage capability of China's 13 operational nuclear power plants. The third estimates China's total accumulated spent fuel, its required spent fuel storage from present day until 2035, when China expects its first commercialized fast neutron reactors to be operational, and its likely demand for uranium resources. The fourth examines several spent fuel management scenarios for the present period up until 2035; the financial cost and proliferation risk of each scenario is evaluated. The study concludes that China can and should maintain a reprocessing operation to meet its R&D activities before its fast reactor program is further developed.     

Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK

Current UK Government support for nuclear power has in part been informed by cost estimates that suggest that electricity from new nuclear power stations will be competitive with alternative low carbon generation options. The evidence and analysis presented in this paper suggests that the capital cost estimates for nuclear power that are being used to inform these projections rely on costs escalating over the pre-construction and construction phase of the new build programme at a level significantly below those that have been experienced by past US and European programmes. This paper applies observed construction time and cost escalation rates to the published estimates of capital costs for new nuclear plant in the UK and calculates the potential impact on levelised cost per unit of electricity produced. The results suggest that levelised cost may turn out to be significantly higher than expected which in turn has important implications for policy, both in general terms of the potential costs to consumers and more specifically for negotiations around the level of policy support and contractual arrangements offered to individual projects through the proposed contract for difference strike price.     

Pattern of UK fuel use

This paper provides an analysis of the historical development of the UK primary energy market — more specifically of coal, gas and heavy fuel oil. The period considered for this investigation is 1960-83. A theoretical framework is set up and the significant shifts in the market are traced accordingly. As it turns out the shifts in the energy market of the UK have been similar to those in other European countries despite indigenous oil and gas resources.     

De-regulated electric power markets and operating nuclear power plants: the case of British energy

One issue addressed in almost all electric power restructuring/de-regulation plans in both the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) was the recovery of operating nuclear power plant's spent fuel disposal costs and the expenditures to decommission the units when they are retired. Prior to restructuring, in theory at least, in both countries, electricity consumers were paying for the back end costs from operating nuclear power plants. Moreover, in virtually all cases in the US, states included special provisions to insure that consumers would continue to do so after power markets were de-regulated. When power markets in the UK were initially restructured/de-regulated and nuclear power privatized, the shareholders of British Energy (BE) were initially responsible for these costs. However, after electricity prices fell and BE collapsed, the British government shifted many of the costs to future taxpayers, as much as a century forward. If this was not done, the book value of BE's equity would have been about −3.5 billion pounds. That is, BE's liabilities would have been about −3.5 billion pounds greater than their assets. It is difficult to see how BE could remain viable under such circumstances.     

Participatory governance for energy policy-making: A case study of the UK nuclear consultation in 2007

The policy challenges associated with climate impacts, nuclear risks and an emergence of public preferences for fuel mixes have prompted many contemporary societies to adopt participatory approaches for managing energy matters. The extent to which and just how participatory approaches can work has however remained under-researched. This paper develops a normative framework for participatory governance to examine, analyse, and understand nuclear policy making processes and outcomes, with a particular reference to a case study of the UK nuclear consultation exercise in 2007. By comparing the actual consultation practice in the UK and our normative content–process–outcome framework, we found that the government approach paid insufficient attention to trust and some other normative values underpinning participatory governance, contributing to undesirable outcomes relating to policy legitimacy and public distrust. Our findings suggest that the UK government needs to pay more attention to the interaction that can occur between different rationales for participation and the processes and consequences of participatory exercises.     

Stochastic approach in the optimization of A nuclear power system

The paper deals with a CANDU-CANDU (Th/Pu)-LMFBR (PuO₂) nuclear power system which evolves in a finite time interval. Its initial evolution is only in the CANDU variant, and subsequently in the variants CANDU (Th/Pu) and LMFBR (PuO₂) by the use of Pu produced in the system. It is assumed that the fuel burn-up in the LMFBR (PuO₂) reactors is a random value, as it is governed by an a priori determined field of probability. The resources of natural uranium and Pu which severely influence the development of the system are also random, as they cannot be definitely known, and moreover they are actually governed by another field of probability already known. Under these conditions, the set of optimal solutions and associated optimal values represented by the nuclear electric powers released in the system at the end of the considered time interval have to be derived. Concomitantly, the distribution of the optimal value, its average value and standard deviation can be evaluated. This type of stochastic approach to nuclear power system optimization is much more valid than the deterministic approach, as it supplies information of interest for the decision-makers engaged in the solution of a nuclear power policy.     

A study of the probabilistic risk assessment to the dry storage system of spent nuclear fuel

Due to the large power supply in the energy market since 1960s, the nuclear power planets have been consistently constructed throughout the world in order to maintain and supply sufficient fundamental power generation. Up to now, most of the planets have been operated to a point where the spent fuel pool has reached its design capacity volume. To prevent the plant from shutdown due to the spent fuel pool exceeding the design capacity, the dry cask storage can provides a solution for both the spent fuel pool capacity and the mid-term storage method for the spent fuel bundles at nuclear power planet.     

Climate change benefits and energy supply benefits as determinants of acceptance of nuclear power stations: Investigating an explanatory model

Several countries are currently discussing whether they will rebuild their nuclear power stations in order to continue this type of energy production in the future. The public, with its own opinion about nuclear power stations, has an influential voice in this discussion. As a result, policy makers and nuclear scientists are interested in the public's perception of nuclear power and in what determines this perception. We therefore examined an explanatory model of the public's acceptance of nuclear power based on a telephone survey among a representative sample in Switzerland. The model included such factors as risk perception, benefit perception, affective feelings, and social trust. Moreover, we distinguished between two types of benefit perception: benefit for the climate and a secure energy supply. The model fitted very well to our data and explained acceptance very well. Acceptance was mainly influenced by perceived benefits for a secure energy supply and, to a lesser extent, both by perceived benefits for the climate and by risk perception. Affective feelings about nuclear power appeared to be a central factor in the model. Implications for communication about nuclear power stations and for further research are discussed.     

A deterministic approach in the optimization of a nuclear power system from fuel resource point of view

A CANDU-CANDU(Th/Pu)-LMFBR(PuO₂) nuclear power system is considered, on a 65 year time horizon. The system is characterized by a number of independent variables and integral parameters that depend on them. In performing the optimization of the system we outline first of all the following components of the independent variable vector:(1) DT₁—the delay time in reprocessing Pu from CANDUs, (2) DT₂—the delay time in reprocessing Pu partially consumed in the CANDU (Th/Pu)s, (3) b₃—the fuel burn-up in CANDU (Th/Pu)s, (4) q—the control parameter of the total power growth. The components of the independent variable vector, also called decision variables, are subjected to some direct restrictions. In this paper it is admitted that, from the multitude of integral parameters of the system, the annual electric energy has the greatest importance in the case of a non-econometric approach. This is the objective function of the system optimization problem and depends on the independent variable vector or decision vector. In addition, from the fuel resource point of view, the Unat and Pu cumulative consumptions have a special importance. These are called restriction functions because one looks for the decision vector subject to some direct restrictions (on components) so that, some restrictions on the consumption functions being satisfied, a maximum of the annual electric energy produced in the system at the end of the considered interval is obtained. In this way, the problem has a clear structure of an optimization model of non-linear programming type and it can be treated in specific way for a given field of the above restriction function values. As a result, a set of optimal solutions for development of a CANDU-CANDU(Th/Pu)-LMFBR(PuO₂) system, of interest from a nuclear energy policy point of view, is obtained.