Energy carriers within Europe: Electricity and SNG

Despite the Commission of the European Community's optimism about the supply and cost of nuclear electricity by 1985, it now looks as if neither of these will prove favourable. In this paper the author analyses the determinants of commercial competition between SNG and electricity, especially in space heating, and concludes that SNG has a bright future as an energy carrier, and processes of gasification should be funded accordingly.     

Electricity dependency and CO2 emissions from heating in the Swedish building sector—Current trends in conflict with governmental policy?

Coal-condensing power is marginal production in the deregulated Nordic power market and an increase in electricity consumption will therefore result in increased CO₂ emissions. One goal of the Swedish energy policy is to reduce the amount of electricity used for heating in the building sector. This paper investigates the potential for reduction in electricity dependency and CO₂ emissions from heating, taking the energy infrastructure into account, here defined as the capital stock of the buildings and heating systems together with geographical variations in heat intensity. In order to include the energy infrastructure in the analysis the study is made on a regional level (Southern Sweden) applying a comprehensive database describing the energy infrastructure of the region. The paper compares two scenarios for converting the heating systems of the region: one employing energy savings and with the aim to phase out the oil and most of the electricity used for heating purposes and a second which illustrates the effect if the current trend in the heating market continues. Both scenarios apply commercially available technologies only.From the second scenario it is seen that the current trend—contrary to the aim of the Swedish Governmental policy—shows an increase in electricity dependency for heating, mainly due to a large diffusion of heat pumps, but also due to installations of electrical floor heating and electricity heating systems installed in newly constructed one- and two-dwelling buildings. However, the options proposed in first scenario show that it is possible to reach significant reductions in the electricity dependency due to heating and in corresponding CO₂ emissions. An analysis of the age structure of the heating systems shows that the transformation of the heating system is not completed until the year 2025, if new investments for replacement of heating systems are made only provided they have reached their economical life time, and only applying heating technologies which at present are known to be economically competitive. It can be concluded that future policies on transforming the energy system should be based on an analysis that takes the entire energy infrastructure (in this case of heating system) into account (e.g. not directed towards single technologies). More specifically for the region studied, which is considered representative for Sweden as a whole, policies should aim at installing heat pumps to replace electricity heating only in regions with low heat density where district heating is not competitive, in contrary to the present situation where heat pumps replace all types of heating systems.     

Firm-level determinants of energy and carbon intensity in China

In recent years, China׳s leaders have sought to coordinate official energy intensity reduction targets with new targets for carbon dioxide (CO₂) intensity reduction. The Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2006–2010) included for the first time a binding target for energy intensity, while a binding target for CO₂ intensity was included later in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015). Using panel data for a sample of industrial firms in China covering 2005 to 2009, we investigate the drivers of energy intensity reduction (measured in terms of direct primary energy use and electricity use) and associated CO₂ intensity reduction. Rising electricity prices were associated with decreases in electricity intensity and increases in primary energy intensity, consistent with a substitution effect. Overall, we find that energy intensity reduction by industrial firms during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan translated into more than proportional CO₂ intensity reduction because reducing coal use—in direct industrial use as well as in the power sector—was a dominant abatement strategy. If similar dynamics characterize the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), the national 17 percent CO₂ intensity reduction target may not be difficult to meet—and the 16 percent energy intensity reduction target may result in significantly greater CO₂ intensity reduction.     

Reimagining future energy systems: Overview of the US program to maximize energy utilization via integrated nuclear-renewable energy systems

A sustainable, balanced energy portfolio is necessary for a country's continued economic growth. This portfolio must collectively be able to provide reliable, resilient electricity at stable, affordable prices. Nuclear energy is an important contributor to global clean energy supply, both as a primary source and by complementing and enabling other clean energy sources. As we look to the design and operation of future energy systems, we see an increasing need to think differently about how we utilize our energy resources to meet all of our energy needs—not just electricity but also industrial and transportation demands. Resource utilization in light of a broader desire to reduce environmental impacts leads us to consider transforming how we use nuclear energy, which currently provides more than half of the nonemitting electricity generated in the United States. A paradigm shift is required to develop optimal energy generation and use configurations that embrace novel approaches to system integration and process design. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) program on Integrated Energy Systems (IES)—formerly the Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems (N-R HES) program—was established to evaluate potential options for the coordinated use of nuclear and renewable energy generators to meet energy demands across the electricity, industrial, and transportation sectors. These formerly independent sectors are becoming increasingly linked through technology advances in data acquisition, communications, demand response approaches, and control technologies. Advanced modeling and simulation tools can be employed to design systems that better coordinate across these sectors. Implementation of integrated multi-input, multi-output energy systems will allow for expanded use of nuclear energy beyond the grid in a manner that complements the increased build-out of variable renewable energy generation. These integrated systems would provide enhanced flexibility while also providing energy services and supporting the production of additional, nonelectric commodities (eg, potable water, hydrogen, and liquid fuels) via excess thermal and electrical energy from the nuclear system. Increased flexibility of traditionally baseload nuclear systems will support energy security, grid reliability, and grid resilience while maximizing the use of clean energy technologies. This paper provides an overview of current efforts in the United States that assess the potential to increase utilization of nuclear energy systems, in concert with renewable energy generation, via the IES program. Analysis tools and approaches and preliminary analysis results are summarized, and planned experimental activities to demonstrate integrated system performance are introduced.     

Life cycle assessment of nuclear hydrogen production processes based on high temperature gas-cooled reactor

Conventional hydrogen production technologies mostly fossil fuels as energy and material basis. The rapid development of nuclear energy in recent years offers a new opportunity. Clean electricity and process heat generated by nuclear reactors can provide energy for hydrogen production, effectively reducing the environmental burden. This study used life cycle assessment (LCA) method to sort out the inputs and outputs of the nuclear hydrogen production processes and analyze the environmental impacts based on local data in China. In this study, we constructed frameworks for two nuclear energy-based processes and created four different scenarios to compare the effect of energy efficiency. Six indicators were used to quantify the environmental impact. The results showed that: (1) electrolysis cell manufacturing and spent fuel disposal generate the largest emissions in hydrogen production. (2) S–I cycle is sensitive to heat transfer efficiency, while high-temperature electrolysis is more sensitive to power generation efficiency; (3) The environmental impact of high-temperature electrolysis (without carrier gas) is slightly lower than that of S–I cycle, but the advantage will disappear as energy efficiency increases. At present, high-temperature electrolysis offers a clean alternative to conventional technologies for hydrogen energy and hydrogen economy. The S–I cycle might have a better prospect in the future. Our study results will provide a scientific assessment of the possibilities of developing nuclear energy for hydrogen production in China and help to make some decisions and policies.     

Investigating the need of nuclear power plants for sustainable energy in Iran

Over the decades, the consumption of all types of energy such as electricity increased rapidly in Iran. Therefore, the government decided to redevelop its nuclear program to meet the rising electricity demand and decrease consumption of fossil fuels. In this paper, the effect of this policy in four major aspects of energy sustainability in the country, including energy price, environmental issues, energy demand and energy security have been verified. To investigate the relative cost of electricity generated in each alternative generator, the simple levelized electricity cost was selected as a method. The results show that electricity cost in fossil fuel power plants presumably will be cheaper than nuclear. Although the usage of nuclear reactor to generate power is capable of decreasing hazardous emissions into the environment, there are many other effective policies and technologies that can be implemented. Energy demand growth in the country is very high; neither nuclear nor fossil fuel cannot currently cope with the growth. So, the only solution is rationalizing energy demand by price amendment and encouraging energy efficiency. The major threats of energy security in Iran are high energy consumption growth and economic dependency on crude oil export. Though nuclear energy including its fuel cycle is Iran's assured right, constructing more nuclear power plants will not resolve the energy sustainability problems. In fact, it may be the catalyst for deterioration since it will divert capital and other finite resources from top priority and economic projects such as energy efficiency, high technology development and energy resources management.     

Decomposition for emission baseline setting in China's electricity sector

Decomposition analysis is used to generate carbon dioxide emission baselines in China's electricity sector to the year 2020. This is undertaken from the vantage point of the final consumer of electricity, and therefore considers factors influencing electricity demand, efficiency of generation, sources of energy used for generation purposes, and the effectiveness of transmission and distribution. It is found that since 1980, gains in efficiency of generation have been the most important factor affecting change in the emission intensity of electricity generated. Based upon known energy and economic policy, efficiency gains will continue to contribute to reductions in the emission intensity of electricity generated, however, fuel shifts to natural gas and increases in nuclear generation will further these trends into the future. The analysis confirms other sources in the literature that decomposition is an appropriate technique available for baseline construction, thereby suitable for the emerging carbon market and its related mechanisms.     

我国经济发展对电耗的影响及电力的需求浅析

能/电耗的变化与经济发展所处的时期有关。针对我国经济快速发展,从电力角度分析我国工业化进程需经历的三个时期:1949～1979年高度工业重型化时期(工业化初期);1980～2000年高度工业轻型化时期(工业化中期);2001～202X年工业重轻基本协调时期(工业化后期)。由于各时期的特点不同,其能耗电耗也不同。现阶段只有能耗下降超过3%时,电耗才会下降。我国完成工业化进程对电力的需求为:人均用电量达到4500kWh左右,人均发电装机容量达到1kW左右;第二产业用电比重在60%左右,第三产业用电比重高于17%,居民生活用电比重20%左右。     

Nucs down in Germany—Prices up in Europe?

Current legislation on power production from nuclear energy in Germany defines certain remaining quantities of permitted electricity production for nuclear power plants. These quantities are defined for each nuclear power plant and are measured in TWh. In the discussion about climate protection and market trend of electricity prices, it is regularly stated by policy makers that the nuclear phase-out will result in an increase in electricity prices and CO₂ emissions. As a consequence a revision is proposed, especially from the Liberals (FDP) and Conservatives (CDU). The following article discusses this issue analysing the different options investors and operators under different scenarios have. It shows firstly that both emissions and power prices can indeed increase, and secondly that the mere discussion about potentially reversing the phasing-out decision can lead to an increase in electricity prices as investment behaviour may change based on expectations regarding future regulation. I conclude that – ceteris paribus – the nuclear phase-out is likely to result in an increase in CO₂ emissions and prices.     

Implications of a US electricity standard for final energy demand

This paper analyzes the emissions impact of an emissions intensity standard (metric tons of CO₂ per MWh of electricity) for the US power sector on US final energy demand — i.e. the manufacturing, residential, commercial, and transportation sectors. An emissions intensity standard, although geared towards the power sector, will have implications for these other sectors of the economy through its effect on economy-wide energy prices. Using a hybrid energy-economy simulation model (CIMS), we find the effect on aggregate emissions from final demand to mostly be small. However, after disaggregating final demand, we find significant changes in CO₂e emissions for several of sub-sectors. Given that emissions reductions in final energy demand are needed alongside power sector reductions for the US to achieve deep emissions cuts, our findings provide needed insight as to whether these eventual reductions will be helped or hindered by a US electricity standard.     

Analysis of energy intensity trend as a tool for long-term forecasting of energy consumption

The paper presents retrospective developments of energy intensity of the world economy differentiated by regions and their levels of economic development. The analysis has revealed the persistent decreasing trend in energy intensity across all the macro-regions and most countries, showing diversity of its course regarding both the starting point and rate of energy intensity reduction. Based on the time series, it has been shown that energy intensity of an economy is best described by an exponential trend, indicating a fairly uniform decline in energy efficiency in the economies. A power index of the exponential equation is one of the critical parameters characterizing reduction rate of energy intensity—the index of energy intensity reduction (IEIR). The authors have proposed an approach to measuring beta-convergence in time series of energy intensity, substantiating thereby convergence of economies. A comprehensive analysis of the time series and trend model served as a basis for prediction of variation in energy intensity of economies of the macro-regions for the period until 2040, which also included its quality and rationale verification. It has been shown that the trend method can be successfully applied to forecasting energy intensity developments to economically developed regions, whereas for developing countries such a forecast is less reliable. In these conditions, a comprehensive use of the trend model and the convergence model is necessary. The forecast of changes in energy intensity of the world economies grouped into macro-regions until 2040 has shown that the economically developed countries of Europe will remain to be the energy efficiency leaders until the mid-twenty-first century. The energy intensity indicators for less developed regions will gradually converge in their domain; yet, they are not expected to reach the level of the economically developed countries by 2040.     

Analysis of the impact of electricity grid interconnection between Korea and Japan—Feasibility study for energy network in Northeast Asia

This study analyzes the impact of an electricity grid interconnection between Korea and Japan on their energy systems. Both countries seriously consider energy security as the most important policy issue because of a lack of domestic energy resources. In addition, public concern for the environment is recently rising up in response to the global warming. Electricity grid interconnection has strong potential to cope with such complicated problems cost-effectively. We have developed the interconnection model, which includes the electricity grid interconnection between the electricity sectors of Korea and Japan, considering both technological and economic efficiency. The result of the study reveals the significant cost-effectiveness of the interconnection, in particular, under stringent condition such as nuclear phase-out in Japan and CO₂ emission target in Korea and Japan. In the case that Japan's nuclear power plants will be phased out, the interconnection attains further cost reduction of constructing substitutive thermal power plants. On the other hand, when Korea and Japan set a joint CO₂ emission target, it achieves the emission target more efficiently than they reduce the emission individually.     

The decline of the world’s energy intensity

Energy intensity of the total primary energy supply (TPES), total final energy consumption (TFC) and LOSSES in the conversion from TPES to TFC were analyzed for the World, OECD and Rest of the World (ROW) countries. LOSSES increased significantly for all groups of countries due to the increase of electricity production from coal in the period studied (1971–2008). Electricity share final consumption almost doubled, increasing from 8.8% to 17.2% in the period studied. However the energy intensity of LOSSES remained practically constant, which reflects the fact that the efficiency of electricity generation from coal (the main source of electricity) remained practically constant in that period. Despite the attractiveness of end-use devices running on electricity such as computers, which is typical of modern societies, the CO₂ emissions are bound to increase unless coal is replaced by less carbon emitting sources such as natural gas, renewables and nuclear energy.     

Towards a low carbon energy future – Renewable energy cooperation between Germany and Norway

Renewable energy is a cornerstone of German climate change policies. Germany has adopted particularly ambitious renewable energy targets, and is now implementing an Energiewende – a transition to a nuclear-free and low-carbon energy system. The transition could be eased through European cooperation. This article investigates the economic, political, environmental and technological factors that act as drivers and barriers to renewable energy cooperation between Germany and Norway. The article finds that German actors see Norwegian electricity as a means for enhancing the stability of their electricity system as Germany shifts to a greater reliance on renewables. In Norway the picture is more mixed. Norwegian state-owned electricity producers and grid operators are interested in cooperation largely out of profit motives, but expect Germany to create a favorable environment for investors. Energy-intensive industries and consumers on the other hand, are afraid that more electricity cooperation with Germany will raise electricity prices. The Norwegian environmental movement is split on the issue. Parts of the movement see renewable energy cooperation as an important step towards a European low-carbon energy future. Nature and outdoor organizations, however, argue that new renewable energy infrastructure, including pumped-storage hydropower, will result in major environmental impacts. If cooperation is to be achieved, these economic and environmental concerns will have to be taken seriously.     

The role of nuclear energy in the more efficient exploitation of fossil fuel resources

The energy theory of value, being a valuable addition to the debate on the rational exploitation of man's energy reserves, is applied in order to clarify the presently confused energy input/output relations for nuclear and solar systems as they interact with fossil fuel. It is shown on the basis of purely energetics considerations that the nuclear route—at present and in future—is a very efficient way to stretch out and finally to substitute for the limited fossil fuel resources. This is particularly true if one considers the transistory phase where the substituting process has to exhibit a rapid exponential growth rate. The energetical effectiveness of the production of a synthetic fuel, as for example hydrogen by water splitting processes, is addressed at the end and serves to give an idea how effectively the energy available in fossil fuels can be amplified by virtue of the coupling of nuclear energy into the process.     

Governmental policy and prospect in electricity production from renewables in Lithuania

In Lithuania, the generation of electricity is based on the nuclear energy and on the fossil fuels. After the decommissioning of Ignalina nuclear power plant in 2009, the Lithuanian Power Plant and other thermal plants will become the major sources of electricity. Consequently, the Lithuanian power sector must focus on the implementation of renewable energy projects, penetration of new technologies and on consideration of the future opportunities for renewables, and Government policy for promoting this kind of energy. Production of electricity from renewable energy is based on hydro, biomass and wind energy resources in Lithuania. Due to the typical climatic condition in Lithuania the solar photovoltaics and geothermal energy are not used for power sector. Moreover, the further development of hydropower plants is limited by environmental restrictions, therefore priority is given to wind energy development and installation of new biomass power plants. According to the requirements set out in the Directive 2001/77/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 September 2001 on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market [Official Journal L283, 33–40, 27 October 2001], 7% of gross consumption of electricity will be generated from renewable energy by 2010 in Lithuania. The aim of this paper is to show the estimation of the maximum renewable power penetration in the Lithuanian electricity sector and possible environmental impact.     

The economic costs of a nuclear moratorium

Although the present average cost of generating electricity from nuclear reactors is less than the average cost of power from fossil fuel plants, the pressures for additional regulatory controls on nuclear power plants raise the possibility that nuclear power might become unavailable as an energy alternative. With the help of a model of U.S. interfuel competition developed at SRI, implications of various alternative assumptions about the future availability of nuclear power are examined. The economic costs of a nuclear moratorium are evaluated for two different forecasts of energy-demand growth. The impacts of a nuclear moratorium on coal-production levels and petroleum imports are examined. Although the loss of the nuclear option is offset by a substantial increase in eastern and western coal production, the net present cost of this replacement—more than $100 billion—is substantial.     

A missing link? The case of Norway and Sweden: Does increased renewable energy production impact domestic greenhouse gas emissions?

This article examines how the EU׳s RES directive¹ will impact domestic greenhouse gas emissions in Norway and Sweden by 2020. The directive aims for a higher RES share in the energy consumption mix, and Norway and Sweden have established a common electricity certificate scheme to help achieve these RES goals. In terms of how these two national RES plans will impact domestic emissions by 2020, factors such as nuclear power, consumption changes and the energy balance must be considered. The most practical approach to evaluate the plans’ impact on emissions is to focus on changes in carbon-based consumption within the three directive sectors.The Norwegian RES action plan will not affect domestic emissions unless the electricity surplus generated by the certificate market is used to phase out fossil fuels in domestic sectors beyond the scope of the RES directive. The use of electricity to phase out fossil fuel consumption in the offshore sector would substantially reduce Norwegian emissions figures. The Swedish plan would positively impact Swedish greenhouse gas emissions; however, this impact is limited, primarily because a substantial increase in energy consumption is expected.     

二季度我国能源经济形势及发展趋势

本文分析了2009年第2季度我国的能源经济形势,认为第2季度能源供需总体宽松、能源价格相对平稳、能源进口增速明显;未来短期内能源供求关系仍将宽松,能源需求将进一步回暖,用电量全面恢复正增长,煤炭价格总体上仍将平稳。     

Solar thermal electrical power plants for Iran

The production of electricity by solar thermal techniques is evaluated for Iran. While the siting potential is very favourable a simple economic analysis shows that due to the low domestic fuel cost and the present high installation cost of solar thermal power plants most of the existing methods of producing electricity are more economical and will remain so even by 1985 when nuclear power generation becomes significant. However, solar thermal techniques become economically attractive for peak and intermediate loads in Iran provided that the domestic fuel cost increases by at least a factor of four and the installed cost of the solar plant is about 2000 $/kW.