Agent-based computational economics: modeling economies as complex adaptive systems

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) is the computational study of economies modeled as evolving systems of autonomous interacting agents. Thus, ACE is a specialization to economics of the basic complex adaptive systems paradigm. This paper outlines the main objectives and defining characteristics of the ACE methodology, and discusses several active research areas.     

基于Agent的复杂系统分布仿真建模方法的研究

基于Agent的分布仿真是研究大型复杂系统的一种有效的、重要的方法。为了减小复杂系统仿真的复杂度,增加仿真模型的重用和可维护性,需要研究基于Agent分布仿真的建模方法。首先对复杂系统及其特性进行了分析,对基于Agent的仿真进行了全面的论述,然后对基于Agent的复杂系统仿真中的复杂系统建模分析、Agent建模分析以及Agent的分布进行了分析,给出了基于Agent的复杂系统分布仿真的建模步骤,最后给出了在此建模思想指导下的金融证券市场的建模过程。     

Control of complex distributed systems with distributed intelligent agents

Control of spatially distributed systems is a challenging problem because of their complex nature, nonlinearity, and generally high order. The lack of accurate and computationally efficient model-based techniques for large, spatially distributed systems leads to challenges in controlling the system. Agent-based control structures provide a powerful tool to manage distributed systems by utilizing (organizing) local and global information obtained from the system. A hierarchical, agent-based system with local and global controller agents is developed to control networks of interconnected chemical reactors (CSTRs). The global controller agent dynamically updates local controller agent’s objectives as the reactor network conditions change. One challenge posed is control of the spatial distribution of autocatalytic species in a network of reactors hosting multiple species. The multi-agent control system is able to intelligently manipulate the network flow rates such that the desired spatial distribution of species is achieved. Furthermore, the robustness and flexibility of the agent-based control system is illustrated through examples of disturbance rejection and scalability with respect to the size of the network.     

An artificial negotiating agent modeling approach embedding dynamic offer generating and cognitive layer

In this paper, a dynamic offer generating unit and cognitive layer are suggested for artificial agents based negotiation systems. For this purpose, first, adaptive time and behavior dependent tactics are developed taking advantages from time continuity and dynamics aspects (features) integrated in their modeling. Then, a negotiation strategy (bilateral over single issue) based on these two tactics is suggested. Second, a cognitive negotiation model for a negotiator agent is developed using Win-Lose and Win-Win orientations which will be formed based on personality factors. Afterwards, an experimental validation is conducted for testing applicability of time dependent tactics, the effect of offering time, and the effect of cognitive orientations (Win-Lose and Win-Win) on final negotiation outcomes. The results prove the applicability of the suggested time and behavior dependent tactics as well as the proposed cognitive negotiation model.     

Complex networks in advanced manufacturing systems

In recent years, with the rapid development of manufacturing, information, and management technology, advanced manufacturing systems (AMSs) have become increasingly more and more complex, which hinders the wider applications of many key theories and technologies in AMSs. Fortunately, in the last two decades, some dramatic advances have been made in the field of statistical physics theories, along with the extensive applications of complex network. It has provided an alternative approach to analyze AMSs. Many recent studies have focused on the theory of complex networks to describe and solve complicated manufacturing problems. Based on a great number of relevant publications, this paper presents an up-to-date literature review with the identified outstanding research issues, future trends and directions. Three critical issues are summarized after this investigation: (a) the focused areas of AMSs that have deployed the theory of complex networks, (b) the addressed issues and the corresponding approaches, and (c) the limitations and directions of the existing works.     

An agent-based modeling approach applied to the spread of cholera

Cholera is an intestinal disease and is characterized by diarrhea and severe dehydration. While cholera has mainly been eliminated in regions that can provide clean water, adequate hygiene and proper sanitation; it remains a constant threat in many parts of Africa and Asia. Within this paper, we develop an agent-based model that explores the spread of cholera in the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya. Poor sanitation and housing conditions contribute to frequent incidents of cholera outbreaks within this camp. We model the spread of cholera by explicitly representing the interaction between humans and their environment, and the spread of the epidemic using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model. Results from the model show that the spread of cholera grows radially from contaminated water sources and seasonal rains can cause the emergence of cholera outbreaks. This modeling effort highlights the potential of agent-based modeling to explore the spread of cholera in a humanitarian context.     

基于复杂网络理论及蚁群算法的MA迁移策略

移动Agent问题主要是解决移动Agent在不同主机间移动时如何根据移动Agent的任务和其他约束条件来规划最优的迁移路线。蚁群算法是一种新的生物进化算法,具有并行、正反馈和启发式搜索等特点,是一种解决旅行Agent问题的有效手段,但同时也存在一些缺点,如运算过程中收敛速度慢,易出现停滞现象等。复杂网络理论是一个新兴的理论,它发现现实的网络具有新的特性,为了刻画这一新的网络结构,引入了新的特征度量,节点的“度”就是其中一个。在蚁群算法的基础上,在状态转移规则等中加入度这一系数,同时自适应调整挥发系数ρ来提高算法的性能。将该算法用于移动Agent问题,模拟计算结果显示移动Agent在移动时能以最优的效率和最短的时间来完成迁移。     

Developing an agent-based hierarchical modeling approach to assess human performance of infrastructure systems

During the last decade, research works related to modeling and simulation of infrastructure systems have primarily focused on the performance of their technical factors, almost ignoring the importance of non-technical factors of these systems, e.g., human operators, consumers. In contrast, the human operator of infrastructure systems has become an essential part in daily operation and in ensuring the security and reliability of the system. In some of the most significant technological incidents of the past century, human error has played a major role. Therefore, developing a modeling approach that is capable of assessing the human performance in a comprehensive way has become crucial. In this paper, an agent-based hierarchical modeling approach is proposed, which aims at the explicit modeling of the impacts of human performance on the operation of infrastructure systems. Within this approach, the cognition component plays a major role. For this purpose, an analytical method based on the Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method (CREAM) is developed using a knowledge-based approach. The proposed modeling approach is a pilot work exploring possibilities of simulating performance of human factors in infrastructure systems. The applicability of this modeling approach is demonstrated by a validation experiment using the electric power supply system as an exemplary system.     

Adaptive networks for physical modeling

This paper presents an original link between neural networks theory and mechanical modeling networks. The problem is to find the parameters characterizing mechanical structures in order to reproduce given mechanical behaviors. Replacing “neural” units with mechanically based units and applying classical learning algorithms dedicated to supervised dynamic networks to these mechanical networks allows us to find the parameters for a physical model. Some new variants of real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) are also introduced, based on mechanical principles.

The notion of interaction during learning is discussed at length and the results of tests are presented. Instead of the classical {machine learning system, environment} pair, we propose to study the {machine learning system, human operator, environment} triplet.

Experiments have been carried out in simulated scenarios and some original experiments with a force-feedback device are also described.     

MEdit4CEP-CPN: An approach for complex event processing modeling by prioritized colored petri nets

Complex Event Processing (CEP) is an event-based technology that allows us to process and correlate large data streams in order to promptly detect meaningful events or situations and respond to them appropriately. CEP implementations rely on the so-called Event Processing Languages (EPLs), which are used to implement the specific event types and event patterns to be detected for a particular application domain. To spare domain experts this implementation, the MEdit4CEP approach provides them with a graphical modeling editor for CEP domain, event pattern and action definition. From these graphical models, the editor automatically generates a corresponding Esper EPL code. Nevertheless, the generated code is syntactically but not semantically validated. To address this problem, MEdit4CEP is extended in this paper by Prioritized Colored Petri Net (PCPN) formalism, resulting in the MEdit4CEP-CPN approach. This approach provides both a novel PCPN domain-specific modeling language and a graphical editor. By using model transformations, event pattern models can be automatically transformed into PCPN models, and then into the corresponding PCPN code executable by CPN Tools. In addition, by using PCPNs we can compare the expected output with the actual output and can even conduct a quantitative analysis of the scenarios of interest. To illustrate our approach, we have conducted an air quality level detection case study and we show how this novel approach facilitates the modeling, simulation, analysis and semantic validation of complex event-based systems.     

Debugging complex software systems by means of pathfinder networks

This paper introduces a new methodology based on the use of Pathfinder networks (PFNETs) for the debugging of multi-agent systems (MASs). This methodology is specifically designed to develop a forensic analysis (i.e. a debugging process performed on previously recorded data of the MAS run) of MASs showing complex tissues of relationships between agents (i.e. a high complexity in their social level). Like previous works in the field of forensic analysis of MASs, our approach is performed by considering displays of the system activity which aim to be understandable by human beings. These displays allow us to understand the social behavior of the system, discover emergent behaviors, and debug possible undesirable behaviors. However, it is well known that the visualization of information in a humanly comprehensible way becomes a complex task when large amounts of information have to be represented, as is the case of the social behavior of large-scale MASs. Our methodology tackles this problem through the use of PFNETs, which are considered to reduce the data complexity in order to obtain simple representations that show only the most important global interactions in the system. In addition, the proposed methodology is customizable thanks to the use of two thresholds allowing the user to define the desired specificity level in the display. The proposal is illustrated with a detailed case study considering a complex customer-seller MAS.     

GemCell: A generic platform for modeling multi-cellular biological systems

The mass and complexity of biological information requires computer-aided simulation and analysis to help scientists achieve understanding and guide experimentation. Although living organisms are composed of cells, actual genomic and proteomic data have not yet led to a satisfactory model of working cell in silico. We have set out to devise a user-friendly generic platform, GemCell, for Generic Executable Modeling of Cells, based on whole, functioning cells. Starting with the cell simplifies life, because all cells expresses essentially five generic types of behavior: replication, death, movement (including change of shape and adherence), export (secretion, signaling, etc.) and import (receiving signals, metabolites, phagocytosis, etc.). The details of these behaviors are specified in GemCell for particular kinds of cells as part of a database of biological specifics (the DBS), which specifies the cell properties and functions that depend on the cell’s history, state, environment, etc. The DBS is designed in an intuitive fashion, so users are able to easily insert their data of interest. The generic part of GemCell, built using Statecharts, is a fully dynamic model of a cell, its interactions with the environment and its resulting behavior, individually and collectively. Model specificity emerges from the DBS, so that model execution is carried out by the statecharts executing with the aid of specific data extracted from the DBS dynamically. Our long term goal is for GemCell to serve as a broadly applicable platform for biological modeling and analysis, supporting user-friendly in silico experimentation, animation, discovery of emergent properties, and hypothesis testing, for a wide variety of biological systems.     

Endurance: A new robustness measure for complex networks under multiple failure scenarios

Society is now, more than ever, highly dependent on the large-scale networks that underpin its functions. In relatively recent times, significant failures have occurred on large-scale networks that have a considerable impact upon sizable proportions of the world’s inhabitants. The failure of infrastructure has, in turn, begot a subsequent loss of services supported by that network. Consequently, it is now vitally important to evaluate the robustness of such networks in terms of the services supported by the network in question. Evaluating network robustness is integral to service provisioning and thus any network should include explicit indication of the impact upon service performance. Traditionally, network robustness metrics focused solely on topological characteristics, although some new approaches have considered, to a degree, the services supported by such networks. Several shortcomings of these new metrics have been identified. With the purpose of solving the drawbacks of these metrics, this paper presents a new measure called endurance, which quantifies the level of robustness supported by a specific topology under different types of multiple failure scenarios, giving higher importance to perturbations affecting low percentages of elements of a network. In this paper, endurance of six synthetic complex networks is computed for a range of defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the connection requests that cannot be satisfied. It is demonstrated that our proposal is able to quantify the robustness of a network under given multiple failure scenarios. Finally, results show that different types of networks react differently depending on the type of multiple failure.     

An efficient approach to representation and simplification of complex networks

This paper describes an efficient approach to representation and analysis of complex networks. Typically, an n node system is represented by an n × n connection matrix. This paper presents a new connection matrix representation scheme that uses three fields; “begin node”, “end node”, and “component id” to represent each node in the network. The proposed approach to connection matrix representation is more concise than the n × n matrix, which is often sparsely populated. This paper also describes network simplification algorithm based on the revised connection matrix. The algorithm when applied to a large system with 55 tie-sets reduced the network to a single tie-set.     

Neural networks implementation for modeling and control design of manufacturing systems

This paper presents a dynamic neural network implementation for the modeling and control design of a class of manufacturing systems. The evolution of the considered systems is supposed to be continuous and non-stochastic. A separate implementation of the system elements is detailed. These elements are then connected together in order to obtain a global net that simulates the behavior of the real system. The obtained model is modular and can be adapted easily for any modification of the system. Permanent correction rules are developed to control the speed of the machines according to a desired profile and to take into consideration the buffers limited capacities. The convergence of the control design is proved. The proposed approach is applied on an exhaust valves assembly workshop.     

Back-propagation neural networks for modeling complex systems

In complex engineering systems, empirical relationships are often employed to estimate design parameters and engineering properties. A complex domain is characterized by a number of interacting factors and their relationships are, in general, not precisely known. In addition, the data associated with these parameters are usually incomplete or erroneous (noisy). The development of these empirical relationships is a formidable task requiring sophisticated modeling techniques as well as human intuition and experience. This paper demonstrates the use of back-propagation neural networks to alleviate this problem. Backpropagation neural networks are a product of artificial intelligence research. First, an overview of the neural network methodology is presented. This is followed by some practical guidelines for implementing back-propagation neural networks. Two examples are then presented to demonstrate the potential of this approach for capturing nonlinear interactions between variables in complex engineering systems.     

Agent-based modeling of energy technology adoption: Empirical integration of social,behavioral, economic,and environmental factors

Agent-based modeling (ABM) techniques for studying human-technical systems face two important challenges. First, agent behavioral rules are often ad hoc, making it difficult to assess the implications of these models within the larger theoretical context. Second, the lack of relevant empirical data precludes many models from being appropriately initialized and validated, limiting the value of such models for exploring emergent properties or for policy evaluation. To address these issues, in this paper we present a theoretically-based and empirically-driven agent-based model of technology adoption, with an application to residential solar photovoltaic (PV). Using household-level resolution for demographic, attitudinal, social network, and environmental variables, the integrated ABM framework we develop is applied to real-world data covering 2004–2013 for a residential solar PV program at the city scale. Two applications of the model focusing on rebate program design are also presented.     

ManufAg: a multi-agent-system framework for production control of complex manufacturing systems

In this paper, we present a framework for the implementation of multi-agent-systems for production control of complex manufacturing systems. We present the results of a requirement analysis for production control systems for complex manufacturing systems; then we describe the framework design criteria. Our framework supports the inclusion of distributed hierarchical decision-making schemes into the production control. Furthermore, in order to increase the coordination abilities of multi-agent-systems, we follow the decision-making and staff agent architecture suggested in the PROSA reference architecture. We indicate the usage of the framework for designing and implementing an agent-based production control system for semiconductor manufacturing processes in a case study.     

Wavelet networks for nonlinear system modeling

This study presents a nonlinear systems and function learning by using wavelet network. Wavelet networks are as neural network for training and structural approach. But, training algorithms of wavelet networks is required a smaller number of iterations when the compared with neural networks. Gaussian-based mother wavelet function is used as an activation function. Wavelet networks have three main parameters; dilation, translation, and connection parameters (weights). Initial values of these parameters are randomly selected. They are optimized during training (learning) phase. Because of random selection of all initial values, it may not be suitable for process modeling. Because wavelet functions are rapidly vanishing functions. For this reason heuristic procedure has been used. In this study serial-parallel identification model has been applied to system modeling. This structure does not utilize feedback. Real system outputs have been exercised for prediction of the future system outputs. So that stability and approximation of the network is guaranteed. Gradient methods have been applied for parameters updating with momentum term. Quadratic cost function is used for error minimization. Three example problems have been examined in the simulation. They are static nonlinear functions and discrete dynamic nonlinear system.