Ensemble learning of rule-based evolutionary algorithm using multi-layer perceptron for supporting decisions in stock trading problems

Classification is a major research field in pattern recognition and many methods have been proposed to enhance the generalization ability of classification. Ensemble learning is one of the methods which enhance the classification ability by creating several classifiers and making decisions by combining their classification results. On the other hand, when we consider stock trading problems, trends of the markets are very important to decide to buy and sell stocks. In this case, the combinations of trading rules that can adapt to various kinds of trends are effective to judge the good timing of buying and selling. Therefore, in this paper, to enhance the performance of the stock trading system, ensemble learning mechanism of rule-based evolutionary algorithm using multi-layer perceptron (MLP) is proposed, where several rule pools for stock trading are created by rule-based evolutionary algorithm, and effective rule pools are adaptively selected by MLP and the selected rule pools cooperatively make decisions of stock trading. In the simulations, it is clarified that the proposed method shows higher profits or lower losses than the method without ensemble learning and buy&hold.     

Enhanced decision making mechanism of rule-based genetic network programming for creating stock trading signals

Evolutionary computation generally aims to create the optimal individual which represents optimal action rules when it is applied to agent systems. Genetic Network Programming (GNP) has been proposed as one of the graph-based evolutionary computations in order to create optimal individuals. GNP with rule accumulation is an extended algorithm of GNP, which extracts a large number of rules throughout the generations and stores them in rule pools, which is different from general evolutionary computations. Concretely, the individuals of GNP with rule accumulation are regarded as evolving rule generators in the training phase and the generated rules in the rule pools are actually used for decision making. In this paper, GNP with rule accumulation is enhanced in terms of its rule extraction and classification abilities for generating stock trading signals considering up and down trends and occurrence frequency of specific buying/selling timing. A large number of buying and selling rules are extracted by the individuals evolved in the training period. Then, a unique classification mechanism is used to appropriately determine whether to buy or sell stocks based on the extracted rules. In the testing simulations, the stock trading is carried out using the extracted rules and it is confirmed that the rule-based trading model shows higher profits than the conventional individual-based trading model.     

Energy trading scheme based on consortium blockchain and game theory

With the gradual opening of the electricity sales market, distributed energy trading is becoming an important research topic. However, it is not easy to design practical energy trading schemes in distributed scenario. In particular, known distributed energy trading schemes do not address the security of transaction data and the maximization of benefits among all the participants. In this paper, we propose a distributed energy trading scheme based on consortium blockchain and game theory. In our scheme, a peer-to-peer trading platform is constructed to realize direct transactions among all the participants by the property of decentralization in consortium blockchain. The direct transactions greatly reduce operating costs of energy trading, and at the same time, the security of transaction data can be obtained by the cryptographic techniques such as digital signatures and hash functions associated with the underlying blockchain. Moreover, we design an energy transaction matching mechanism by game theory in our scheme. In the matching mechanism, we construct a game model among all the participants and design an equilibrium solving algorithm, which are the key techniques to realize the maximization of benefits among all the participants in energy trading. The security analysis and experimental results show that our scheme can realize the best transaction price and quantity in the transaction matching and has high security in distributed energy transaction scenarios.     

An intelligent stock trading system using comprehensive features

The aim of this study is to predict automatic trading decisions in stock markets. Comprehensive features (CF) for predicting future trend are very difficult to generate in a complex environment, especially in stock markets. According to related work, the relevant stock information can help investors formulate objects that may result in better profits. With this in mind, we present a framework of an intelligent stock trading system using comprehensive features (ISTSCF) to predict future stock trading decisions. The ISTSCF consists of stock information extraction, prediction model learning and stock trading decision. We apply three different methods to generate comprehensive features, including sentiment analysis (SA) that provides sensitive market events from stock news articles for sentiment indices (SI), technical analysis (TA) that yields effective trading rules based on trading information on the stock exchange for technical indices (TI), as well as the trend-based segmentation method (TBSM) that raises trading decisions from stock price for trading signals (TS). Experiments on the Taiwan stock market show that the results of employing comprehensive features are significantly better than traditional methods using numeric features alone (without textual sentiment features).     

An intelligent hybrid trading system for discovering trading rules for the futures market using rough sets and genetic algorithms

Discovering intelligent technical trading rules from nonlinear and complex stock market data, and then developing decision support trading systems, is an important challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an intelligent hybrid trading system for discovering technical trading rules using rough set analysis and a genetic algorithm (GA). In order to obtain better trading decisions, a novel rule discovery mechanism using a GA approach is proposed for solving optimization problems (i.e., data discretization and reducts) of rough set analysis when discovering technical trading rules for the futures market. Experiments are designed to test the proposed model against comparable approaches (i.e., random, correlation, and GA approaches). In addition, these comprehensive experiments cover most of the current trading system topics, including the use of a sliding window method (with or without validation dataset), the number of trading rules, and the size of training period. To evaluate an intelligent hybrid trading system, experiments were carried out on the historical data of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) futures market. In particular, trading performance is analyzed according to the number of sets of decision rules and the size of the training period for discovering trading rules for the testing period. The results show that the proposed model significantly outperforms the benchmark model in terms of the average return and as a risk-adjusted measure.     

基于强化学习的金融交易系统研究与发展

近年来,强化学习在电子游戏、棋类、决策控制等领域取得了巨大进展,也带动着金融交易系统的迅速发展.金融交易问题已经成为强化学习领域的研究热点,特别是股票、外汇和期货等方面具有广泛的应用需求和学术研究意义.以金融领域常用的强化学习模型的发展为脉络,对交易系统、自适应算法、交易策略等方面的诸多研究成果进行了综述.最后讨论了强化学习在金融领域应用中存在的困难和挑战,并对今后强化学习交易系统发展趋势进行展望.     

An optimal pairs-trading rule

This paper is concerned with a pairs trading rule. The idea is to monitor two historically correlated securities. When divergence is underway, i.e., one stock moves up while the other moves down, a pairs trade is entered which consists of a pair to short the outperforming stock and to long the underperforming one. Such a strategy bets the “spread” between the two would eventually converge. In this paper, a difference of the pair is governed by a mean-reverting model. The objective is to trade the pair so as to maximize an overall return. A fixed commission cost is charged with each transaction. In addition, a stop-loss limit is imposed as a state constraint. The associated HJB equations (quasi-variational inequalities) are used to characterize the value functions. It is shown that the solution to the optimal stopping problem can be obtained by solving a number of quasi-algebraic equations. We provide a set of sufficient conditions in terms of a verification theorem. Numerical examples are reported to demonstrate the results.     

Combining technical trading rules using particle swarm optimization

Technical trading rules have been utilized in the stock market to make profit for more than a century. However, only using a single trading rule may not be sufficient to predict the stock price trend accurately. Although some complex trading strategies combining various classes of trading rules have been proposed in the literature, they often pick only one rule for each class, which may lose valuable information from other rules in the same class. In this paper, a complex stock trading strategy, namely performance-based reward strategy (PRS), is proposed. PRS combines the two most popular classes of technical trading rules – moving average (MA) and trading range break-out (TRB). For both MA and TRB, PRS includes various combinations of the rule parameters to produce a universe of 140 component trading rules in all. Each component rule is assigned a starting weight, and a reward/penalty mechanism based on rules’ recent profit is proposed to update their weights over time. To determine the best parameter values of PRS, we employ an improved time variant particle swarm optimization (TVPSO) algorithm with the objective of maximizing the annual net profit generated by PRS. The experiments show that PRS outperforms all of the component rules in the testing period. To assess the significance of our trading results, we apply bootstrapping methodology to test three popular null models of stock return: the random walk, the AR(1) and the GARCH(1, 1). The results show that PRS is not consistent with these null models and has good predictive ability.     

A hybrid stock trading system for intelligent technical analysis-based equivolume charting

This paper presents the use of an intelligent hybrid stock trading system that integrates neural networks, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms techniques to increase the efficiency of stock trading when using a volume adjusted moving average (VAMA), a technical indicator developed from equivolume charting. For this research, a neuro–fuzzy-based genetic algorithm (NF-GA) system utilizing a VAMA membership function is introduced. The results show that the intelligent hybrid system takes advantage of the synergy among these different techniques to intelligently generate more optimal trading decisions for the VAMA, allowing investors to make better stock trading decisions.     

大数据分析的应用案例——投资模型的稳健性

交易模型的稳健性,指的是该模型的利润率曲线的波动性较小,没有大起大落。针对一个基于支持向量回归（SVR）技术的算法交易模型的稳健性问题,提出了使用若干导出指标训练统一的交易模型的策略,以及投资组合多样化的方法。首先,介绍基于支持向量回归技术的算法交易模型;然后,基于常用指标,构造了若干导出指标,用于股票价格的短期预测。这些指标,刻画了近期价格运动的典型模式、超买/超卖市场状态,以及背离市场状态。对这些指标进行了规范化,用于训练交易模型,使得模型可以泛化到不同的股票;最后,设计了投资组合多样化方法。在投资组合里,各个股票之间的相关性,有时会导致较大的投资损失;因为具有较强相关关系的股票,其价格朝相同方向变化。如果交易模型预测的价格走势不正确,引起止损操作,那么这些具有较强相关关系的股票,将引发雪崩式的止损,于是导致损失加剧。把股票根据相似性聚类到不同类别,通过从不同聚类类别中选择若干股票来构成多样化的投资组合,其中,股票的相似性,通过交易模型在不同股票上近期的利润曲线的相似度进行计算。在900只股票10年的价格大数据上进行了实验,实验结果显示,交易模型能够获得超过定期存款的超额利润率,年化利润率为8.06%。交易模型的最大回撤由13.23%降为5.32%,夏普指数由81.23%提高到88.79%,交易模型的利润率曲线波动性降低,说明交易模型的稳健性获得了提高。     

The Extraction of Trading Rules From Stock Market Data Using Rough Sets

We propose the rough set approach to the extraction of trading rules for discriminating between bullish and bearish patterns in the stock market. Rough set theory is quite valuable for extracting trading rules because it can be used to discover dependences in data while reducing the effect of superfluous factors in noisy data. In addition, it does not generate a signal to trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain because the selection of reducts and the extraction of rules are controlled by the strength of each reduct and rule. The experimental results are encouraging and show the usefulness of the rough set approach for stock market analysis with respect to profitability.     

基于动机分析的区块链数字货币异常交易行为识别方法

当前区块链数字货币被众多恶意交易者利用,导致了"粉尘"注入、"空投"操作、勒索、骗局等一系列异常交易行为.因此,研究区块链数字货币异常交易行为的识别方法对于规范交易行为、保障网络空间安全具有重要意义.在众多区块链数字货币中,比特币市值超过所有区块链数字货币市值和的一半,具有高代表性.比特币系统的用户数量多、交易规模大、...     

Maximizing winning trades using a novel RSPOP fuzzy neural network intelligent stock trading system

The increasing reliance on Computational Intelligence techniques like Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms to formulate trading decisions have sparked off a chain of research into financial forecasting and trading trend identifications. Many research efforts focused on enhancing predictive capability and identifying turning points. Few actually presented empirical results using live data and actual technical trading rules. This paper proposed a novel RSPOP Intelligent Stock Trading System, that combines the superior predictive capability of RSPOP FNN and the use of widely accepted Moving Average and Relative Strength Indicator Trading Rules. The system is demonstrated empirically using real live stock data to achieve significantly higher Multiplicative Returns than a conventional technical rule trading system. It is able to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy and generate several folds of dollar returns over an investment horizon of four years. The Percentage of Winning Trades was increased significantly from an average of 70% to more than 92% using the system as compared to the conventional trading system; demonstrating the system’s ability to filter out erroneous trading signals generated by technical rules and to preempt any losing trades. The system is designed based on the premise that it is possible to capitalize on the swings in a stock counter’s price, without a need for predicting target prices.     

Evolutionary computing in recommender systems: a review of recent research

One of the main current applications of intelligent systems is recommender systems (RS). RS can help users to find relevant items in huge information spaces in a personalized way. Several techniques have been investigated for the development of RS. One of them is evolutionary computational (EC) techniques, which is an emerging trend with various application areas. The increasing interest in using EC for web personalization, information retrieval and RS fostered the publication of survey papers on the subject. However, these surveys have analyzed only a small number of publications, around ten. This study provides a comprehensive review of more than 65 research publications focusing on five aspects we consider relevant for such: the recommendation technique used, the datasets and the evaluation methods adopted in their experimental parts, the baselines employed in the experimental comparison of proposed approaches and the reproducibility of the reported experiments. At the end of this review, we discuss negative and positive aspects of these papers, as well as point out opportunities, challenges and possible future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, this review is the most comprehensive review of various approaches using EC in RS. Thus, we believe this review will be a relevant material for researchers interested in EC and RS.     

A Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy model combined with a support vector regression for stock trading forecasting

The turning points prediction scheme for future time series analysis based on past and present information is widely employed in the field of financial applications. In this research, a novel approach to identify turning points of the trading signal using a fuzzy rule-based model is presented. The Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy rule-based model (the TS model) can accurately identify daily stock trading from sets of technical indicators according to the trading signals learned by a support vector regression (SVR) technique. In addition, when new trading points are created, the structure and parameters of the TS model are constantly inherited and updated. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed TS fuzzy rule-based modeling approach, we have acquired the stock trading data in the US stock market. The TS fuzzy approach with dynamic threshold control is compared with a conventional linear regression model and artificial neural networks. Our result indicates that the TS fuzzy model not only yields more profit than other approaches but also enables stable dynamic identification of the complexities of the stock forecasting system.     

An adaptive stock index trading decision support system

Predicting the direction and movement of stock index prices is difficult, often leading to excessive trading, transaction costs, and missed opportunities. Often traders need a systematic method to not only spot trading opportunities, but to also provide a consistent approach, thereby minimizing trading errors and costs. While mechanical trading systems exist, they are usually designed for a specific stock, stock index, or other financial asset, and are often highly dependent on preselected inputs and model parameters that are expected to continue providing trading information well after the initial training or back-tested model development period. The following research leads to a detailed trading model that provides a more effective and intelligent way for recognizing trading signals and assisting investors with trading decisions by utilizing a system that adapts both the inputs and the prediction model based on the desired output. To illustrate the adaptive approach, multiple inputs and modeling techniques are utilized, including neural networks, particle swarm optimization, and denoising. Simulations with stock indexes illustrate how traders can generate higher returns using the developed adaptive decision support system model. The benefits of adding adaptive and intelligent decision making to forecasts are also discussed.     

The role of algorithmic trading systems on stock market efficiency

The rapid development of information technology has changed the dynamics of financial markets. The main purpose of this study is laid on examining the role of IT based stock trading on financial market efficiency. This research specifically focused on algorithmic trading. Algorithmic trading enables investors to trade stocks through a computer program without the need for human interventions. Based on an empirical analysis of the Korean stock market, this study discovered the positive impact of algorithmic trading on stock market efficiency at three-fold. First, the study results indicate that algorithmic trading contributes to the reduction in asymmetric volatility, which causes inefficiency of information in a stock market. Second, an algorithmic trading also increases the operation efficiency of a stock market. Arbitrage trading contributes on the equilibrium between the spot market and futures market as well as on the price discovery. Third, algorithmic trading provides liquidity for market participants contributing to friction free transactions. The research results indicate that stock exchanges based on electronic communications networks (ECNs) without human intervention could augment a financial market quality by increasing trading share volumes and market efficiency so that it can eventually contribute to the welfare of market investors.     

Synthesis of fuzzy logic and Dempster–Shafer Theory for the simulation of the decision-making process in stock trading systems

Modern computerized stock trading systems (mechanical trading systems) are based on the simulation of the decision-making process and generate advice for traders to buy or sell stocks or other financial tools by taking into account the price history, technical analysis indicators, accepted rules of trading and so on. Two stock trading simulating systems based on trading rules defined using fuzzy logic are developed and compared. The first is based on the so-called “Logic-Motivated Fuzzy Logic Operators” (LMFL) approach and aims to avoid certain disadvantages of the classical Mamdani’s method, which has been developed for use in fuzzy logic controllers and not for solving the decision-making problems of stock trading. The LMFL   approach is based on the modified mathematical representation of t$t$-norm and Yager’s implication rule. The second trading system combines the tools of fuzzy logic and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST  ) to represent the features of the decision-making process more transparently. The fuzzy representation of trading rules based on the theory of technical analysis is used in these expert systems. Since the theory of technical analysis is based on the indicators used by experts to predict stock price movements, the method maps these indicators into new inputs that can be used in a fuzzy logic system. The only required inputs to calculate these indicators are past sequences (history) of stock prices. The method relies on fuzzy logic to choose an appropriate decision when certain price movements or certain price formations occur. The optimization procedure based on historical (teaching) data is used as it significantly improves the performance of such expert systems. The efficiency of the developed expert systems is measured by comparing their outputs versus stock price movements. The results obtained using real NYSE$NYSE$ data allow us to say that the developed expert system based on the synthesis of fuzzy logic and DST provides better results and is more reliable. Moreover, such a conjunction of fuzzy logic, DST and technical analysis, makes it possible to make a profit even when trading against a dominating trend.     

MGP-INTACTSKY: Multitree Genetic Programming-based learning of INTerpretable and ACcurate TSK sYstems for dynamic portfolio trading

In this paper, a Multitree Genetic Programming-based method is developed to learn an INTerpretable and ACcurate Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy rule based sYstem (MGP-INTACTSKY) for dynamic portfolio trading. The MGP-INTACTSKY utilizes a TSK model with a new structure to develop a more interpretable and accurate system for dynamic portfolio trading. In the new structure of TSK, disjunctive normal form rules with variable structured consequent parts are developed in which the absence of some input variables is allowed. Input variables are the most influential technical indices which are selected by stepwise regression analysis. The technical indices are computed using wavelet transformed stock price series to eliminate the noise. The proposed system directly induces the preferred portfolio weights from the stock's technical indices through time. Here, genetic programming with the multitree structure is applied to learn the TSK fuzzy rule bases with the Pittsburgh approach. With this approach, the correlation of different stocks is properly considered during the evolutionary process. To evaluate the performance of the MGP-INTACTSKY for portfolio trading, the proposed model is implemented on the Tehran Stock Exchange as an emerging market as well as Toronto and Frankfurt Stock Exchanges as two mature markets. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms other methods such as the momentum strategy, the multitree genetic programming-based crisp system, the genetic algorithm-based first order TSK system, the buy and hold approach and the market's main index in terms of accuracy and interpretability.     

A literature review and classification of electronic commerce research

In this paper, we present a literature review and classification scheme for electronic commerce (EC) research. The former consists of 275 journal articles published between 1993 and 1999 in nine journals that are appropriate outlets for EC research. The results show that an increasing volume of EC research has been conducted for a diverse range of areas. The articles are classified and results of these are presented, based on a scheme that consists of four main categories: application areas, technological issues, support and implementation, and others. A comprehensive list of references is presented. Hopefully, this review will provide a source for anyone interested in EC research and help simulate further interest.