Initial Crisis Agent‐Response Impact Syndrome (ICARIS)

There has been a dramatic shift in attitude among organizations regarding the probabilities of crisis occurring. Once crises were considered the domain of the contingency management team that sought the fastest means to recovery, now the entire organization is compelled to take steps intended to mitigate conditions leading to a crisis. In this paper, the authors consider the organization's ‘first responders’ i.e., those who become involuntarily placed in the decision making process because they are the first to become aware of the conditions which indicate impending crisis simply because they are ‘on scene.’ As agents of the organization, these persons will make initial decisions well before the implementation of any formal contingency plan and because their decisions will be based on incomplete assumptions, they are likely to be in error. The impact of these initial crisis‐agent responses can cause irreparable damage to the organization, to the individuals within the organization, and to the surrounding environment. This tendency toward error is referred to as the initial crisis‐agent response impact syndrome: ICARIS. Exercising a program that prepares all employees for the initial decisions that need to be made at the moment of crisis can mitigate problems related to this issue.     

Creating corroborated crisis reports from social media data through formal concept analysis

During a crisis citizens reach for their smart phones to report, comment and explore information surrounding the crisis. These actions often involve social media and this data forms a large repository of real-time, crisis related information. Law enforcement agencies and other first responders see this information as having untapped potential. That is, it has the capacity extend their situational awareness beyond the scope of a usual command and control centre. Despite this potential, the sheer volume, the speed at which it arrives, and unstructured nature of social media means that making sense of this data is not a trivial task and one that is not yet satisfactorily solved; both in crisis management and beyond. Therefore we propose a multi-stage process to extract meaning from this data that will provide relevant and near real-time information to command and control to assist in decision support. This process begins with the capture of real-time social media data, the development of specific LEA and crisis focused taxonomies for categorisation and entity extraction, the application of formal concept analysis for aggregation and corroboration and the presentation of this data via map-based and other visualisations. We demonstrate that this novel use of formal concept analysis in combination with context-based entity extraction has the potential to inform law enforcement and/or humanitarian responders about on-going crisis events using social media data in the context of the 2015 Nepal earthquake.     

A methodology for the evaluation of integrated manufacturing systems

The evaluation and selection of equipment for today's integrated manufacturing systems presents management with a complex multiattribute decision problems. This paper presents a spreadsheet based methodology that permits the incorporation of both monetary and non-monetary factors into the decision making process.     

Codifying a crisis: Progressing from information sharing to distributed decision‐making

A key challenge in crisis management is maintaining an adequate information position to support coherent decision‐making between a range of actors. Such distributed decision‐making is often supported by a common operational picture that not only conveys factual information but also attempts to codify a dynamic and vibrant crisis management process. In this paper, we explain why it is so difficult to move from information sharing towards support for distributed decision‐making. We argue that two key processes need to be considered: supporting both the translation of meaning and the transformation of interests between those on the front line and those in the remote response network. Our analysis compares the information‐sharing processes in three large‐scale emergency response operations in the Netherlands. Results indicate that on several occasions the collaborative decision‐making process was hampered because actors limited themselves to factual information exchange. The decision‐making process only succeeds when actors take steps to resolve their varying interpretations and interests. This insight offers important lessons for improving information management doctrines and for supporting distributed decision‐making processes.     

“Epidemic in Switzerland”: Description of a Strategic Leadership Exercise by the Swiss Government

On January 20, 2005, a national strategic leadership exercise was held in Switzerland. The theme being the first day response to an epidemic outbreak. Special attention was paid to cooperation and coordination among the various federal departments, the definition of responsibilities within the leadership organisation, and the level of information and communication that served the leadership process, and how these elements played out under time pressure, during a crisis situation and within a federal and international setting. The evaluation of this exercise concludes that short term crisis management could be considered as adequate but strategic decision making was mostly absent. The value of this large scale exercise is considered positive for the preparation on crisis management because of heightened political attention which for example is visible in the swift implementation of the recommendations of the evaluation.     

Fuzzy logic based decision support for mass evacuations of cities prone to coastal or river floods

Facing climate change and more frequent extreme weather conditions, coastal floods and inundations will become more severe. Evacuation can be an efficient solution to secure people's safety in a major disaster. The main difficulty in making an evacuation decision is the imprecise, incomplete and spatially varying nature of the crisis information. In this paper, a fuzzy-logic based method combined with Geographic Information System is proposed to analyze evacuation decision making scenarios. The method can handle qualitative and quantitative data at the same time, avoid sudden changes of decisions affected by uncertainties, and evaluate the spatial necessity to evacuate to support evacuation decision making. The method has been tested at the city of Bordeaux in France. The maps produced representing the need to evacuate can help decision makers better understand evacuation decision situation in terms of local impacts and crisis management anticipation.     

Transboundary crisis management under the volcano: The case of the Icelandic ash cloud

This paper discusses the intricacies of external transboundary crises, namely those cross‐border threats whose management requires coordination among EU and non‐EU countries. Specifically, it explores the extent to which European integration theories shed light on the coordination of external transboundary crisis responses by assessing the weight and role of the actor constellations involved in the civil aviation response to the 2010 Icelandic ash cloud crisis. The use of social network analysis as a methodological tool generates novel empirical evidence on the configuration of crisis management structures. The analysis shows that many EU Member States led decision‐making, whereas supranational organizations were instrumental in the coordination of the ash cloud crisis response. The centrality of these bodies contrasts with the peripheral position of most interest groups. This paper also suggests that external transboundary crises present complex management dynamics that distinguish them from generic transboundary threats. For example, the response to the ash cloud crisis was not commanded by the European Economic Area/European Free Trade Association countries where its epicentre was located. The empirical analysis was based on information extracted from a survey to experts involved in the management of this episode, as well as from ten semi‐structured elite interviews.     

Adapting demons to knowledge management environments

Decision support systems depend on a variety of knowledge management techniques. These range from data base management, programming, and spreadsheet analysis to rule set management and automated inference. One valuable knowledge management technique that has yet to find its way into the repertoire of decision support system developers is general-purpose demon management. This article identifies and explores the major issues pertaining to the integration of demon representation and processing into a knowledge management environment. These serve as a basis for design and implementation of more flexible and powerful environments for decision support.     

Good Enough is Good Enough: Overcoming Disaster Response Organizations’ Slow Social Media Data Adoption

Organizations that respond to disasters hold unreasonable standards for data arising from technology-enabled citizen contributions. This has strong negative potential for the ability of these responding organizations to incorporate these data into appropriate decision points. We argue that the landscape of the use of social media data in crisis response is varied, with pockets of use and acceptance among organizations. In this paper we present findings from interviews conducted with representatives from large international disaster response organizations concerning their use of social media data in crisis response. We found that emergency responders already operate with less than reliable, or “good enough,” information in offline practice, and that social media data are useful to responders, but only in specific crisis situations. Also, responders do use social media, but only within their known community and extended network. This shows that trust first begins with people and not data. Lastly, we demonstrate the barriers used by responding organizations have gone beyond discussions of trustworthiness and data quality to that of more operational issues.     

Improving Communication in Crisis Management by Evaluating the Relevance of Messages

Efficient communication is a major challenge for emergency responders during crisis management. Reports show that missing information and information overload are important factors that determine the success of crisis management. We propose a method as basis for a software system that improves text or voice‐based communication. Communication is split into segments and the system determines from the content of the communication, the tasks of actors and their locations for which responders in the crisis the information is relevant. The system is tested on data recorded at a fire fighting disaster management exercise and found to be accurate enough to be useful.     

Emergency management information systems: Could decision makers be supported in choosing display formats?

Recent information technologies make it possible to include sophisticated three-dimensional display formats in emergency management information systems (EMIS), decision-support systems that facilitate decision making in crisis situations. However, if decision makers are to improve their decisional performance, they must correctly identify appropriate situations for using these formats. We conduct two experiments and find that, as prior research has suggested, decision makers do not choose the most appropriate display format, but their performance improves when given prospective decisional guidance. We discuss implications of these findings for EMIS design, for the training of emergency management professionals, and for future research on display formats and decisional guidance.     

Communication Gaps in Disaster Management: Perceptions by Experts from Governmental and Non‐Governmental Organizations

The complexity of current disasters creates a challenge for crisis communication. This paper aims at identifying gaps in communication in disaster management experienced in practice in order to facilitate learning from those situations. The research was conducted using a qualitative online open‐ended questionnaire. It shows that despite the developments in the discipline, communication as an integral part of decision making in disaster management needs to be further developed. The paper provides a practical‐oriented overview of the communication constraints in complex crisis situations, which has not been provided so far. This research is part of an international project developing performance indicators for a quality measurement system for crisis communication.     

Shared online spreadsheets and hidden profiles: Technological effects on dyad decision strategy

We report a study in which dyads use Instant Messaging to agree a preference among a set of three apartments. The information given to participants is partially overlapping, and contains a “hidden profile” (HP), such that a single apartment emerges as the best according to an unweighted sum of feature values only if dyad members pool information that is presented to only one of them. When dyads were additionally provided with a shared online spreadsheet, their decision strategy was more likely to be compensatory and relatively exhaustive, even if the distribution of importance among the cues in which the apartments vary meant that a “fast and frugal” heuristic such as take-the-best would be a rational strategy. This study shows the potential of classic experimental tasks, the HP task in particular, for understanding technological constraints on group decision making and signals the importance of understanding decision-making strategies, and the potential of fast and frugal heuristics, for informing the design of decision support systems.     

It's meaning making,stupid! Success of public leadership during flash crises

Boin et al. (International Review of Public Administration, 18, 2013, 79) and others propose that public crisis leadership consists of several core tasks, among which crisis decision‐making and meaning making stand out in “flash crises.” We however argue that successful leadership during a sudden crisis implies being visible and appealing to the public in need of hearing that the shattered world will be healed. When being visible and using the right rhetoric, public leaders are by and large automatically considered proficient crisis decision makers, that is “the right leader in the right place at the right time.”     

Test-Driven Development for Spreadsheet Risk Management

Spreadsheet technology is central to the functioning of the financial sector, but professionally created spreadsheets have a high level of error, which highlights the need for innovative supporting processes and tools. The current global financial crisis will likely accelerate this need because anticipated regulation will require novel, innovative risk management methods and technologies that cover development, risk assessment, review, and other spreadsheet activities. These methods will need to be easy to understand and use and will have to serve multiple stakeholders' needs. Test-driven spreadsheet development (TDSD) is one such method. TDSD provides an ideal fit with existing market-leading spreadsheet management processes and can assist managers and auditors in the assessment and control of spreadsheet risk.     

Crisis Politics in Authoritarian Regimes: How Crises Catalyse Changes under the State–Society Interactive Framework

Most studies and research on crisis management and government crises focus on nations that are advanced and democratic. Through the institutionalized mechanism of voting, the public can respond to a government's handling of a crisis without destabilizing the democratic system of government. However, the consequences of crises, particularly governance crises, in authoritarian regimes have not been adequately addressed. Drawing upon different frameworks in the field, this paper proposes a heuristic crisis development ladder and a state–society interactive framework more relevant for studying crisis management in authoritarian nations such as China. By focusing on the catalytic effect of crisis that accelerates reforms and changes, this paper argues that critical crises are politically powerful and decisive in authoritarian systems, especially in the context of an increasingly proactive civil society. This paper illustrates the crisis provoking politics that influences decision‐making under non‐democratic rule.     

Activating constructive employee behavioural responses in a crisis: Examining the effects of pre‐crisis reputation and crisis communication strategies on employee voice behaviours

This study explores how organizational management can promote employee voice behaviours, as positive behavioural reactions with constructive ideas, in responding to organizational crisis. Using an experimental study (N = 640) among full‐time employees in the United States, the study found that pre‐crisis internal reputation and crisis communication strategies—accommodative response and stealing thunder—positively and directly affected constructive employee voice behaviours in a crisis situation. Furthermore, the study revealed how post‐crisis internal reputation mediates the influences of pre‐crisis internal reputation and stealing thunder on positive/constructive and negative/destructive employee voice behaviours. The findings of this study contribute to the theoretical development of crisis communication in the internal context of an organization, especially with respect to employee voice behaviours. The study also highlights an important practical implication for crisis managers who can activate and promote positive employee behaviour voices, thereby influencing leadership's strategic decision‐making in an organizational crisis.     

Limitations of the Swedish network coordination of oil spill preparedness

The management of extreme crisis situations in Sweden has shown delays in decisive actions at higher levels during emergencies, such as oil spills. This has been blamed on unclear responsibilities that undermine the decision‐making process. Confusing, conflicting, or delayed orders impede response effectiveness. This article uses network analysis and survey responses to examine the Swedish oil spill crisis management network and show the Swedish Coast Guard, Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency and Oil Spill Advisory Service as central organizations. However, the roles of these organizations need to be clarified and communicated better to other organizations. In order to improve coordination of Swedish oil spill preparedness, it is suggested to formalize and strengthen the roles of these central organizations. Weak connections between municipalities in different counties were also observed. This weakness could be overcome by more frequent exercises across counties to improve familiarity.     

Assessing roles of people,technology and structure in emergency management systems: a public sector perspective

Emergency management systems are a critical factor in successful mitigation of natural and man-made disasters, facilitating responder decision making in complex situations. Based on socio-technical systems, have which four components (people, technology, structure and task), this study develops a research framework of factors affecting effective emergency management. People factors include psychological factors such as responders' self-efficacy, support from family, peers and community, and training. Technology factors are task technology and information sharing. The structure factors are leadership, labour and logistics. Finally, the task factor refers to effective emergency management. This study empirically tests this framework by collecting surveys from emergency responders who participated in the 2006 Buffalo October Storm. The research results demonstrate that training and support positively affect emergency management self-efficacy which, in turn, has a positive significant relationship with effective emergency management. Task technology and information sharing also have a positive impact on effective emergency management. However, findings suggest that the structure factors do not show a significant relationship with effective emergency management. This research presents that human factors in emergency management are essential to conduct effective operations. More importantly, investing in technology to assist responders in performing their jobs during the emergency is crucial during the emergency operations.