Analysis of China’s Crude Oil Supply and Demand in the Year 2010 and the Year 2020

1. Oil demand forecast 1.1 Forecast based on the elasticity coefficient method The annual oil consumption elasticity coefficient (η) for a given year is defined as the rate of increase in oil consumption for that year, divided by the rate of increase in …     

Panorama of China＇s Petroleum Imports and Exports in 2006

The year of 2006 saw the petroleum imports increase considerably in China since the rapidly developed economy had an urgent demand for fuels. China＇s economy has been developing at the high rate of more than 10% for four consecutive years since 2003. The gross domestic product （GDP） rose by 10.7% in China in 2006, which is the highest speed since 1999. China＇s demand for oil products increased more rapidly in 2006 than in 2005 and its apparent demand for main oil products was 6% higher, which was almost equal to the increment of the processing capacity of domestic oil refining plants. China＇s import of crude oil has been rising for five consecutive years due to the increased processing and refining capacities.     

Panorama of China''''s Petroleum Imports and Exports in 2006

The year of 2006 saw the petroleum imports increase considerably in China since the rapidly developed economy had an urgent demand for fuels.China's economy has been developing at the high rate of more than 10% for four consecutive years since 2003.The gross domestic product(GDP) rose by 10.7% in China in 2006,which is the highest speed since 1999.China's demand for oil products increased more rapidly in 2006 than in 2005 and its apparent demand for main oil products was 6% higher,which was almost equal to the increment of the processing capacity of domestic oil refining plants. China's import of crude oil has been rising for five consecutive years due to the increased processing and refining capacities.     

Status Quo of China＇s Petroleum Exploration and Its Prospect

The oil shortages in China have been becoming more serious in the recent years, which set higher pressure on petroleum exploration in China. In order to increase oil and gas supply and safeguard national energy security, it is critical for China to strengthen oil and gas exploration for more and more oil and gas discoveries. Based on summing up the outcomes of petroleum exploration achieved in the 10th Five-Year Plan period （2001-2005）, the paper analyzes the main issues facing China＇s petroleum exploration currently and in the future. What＇ s more, it probes into the trends of petroleum exploration in the future and predicts the growth of oil and gas reserves. The strategic trend of petroleum exploration is to ＂be based on exploration for large basins, look for new exploration areas, maintain the development of eastern China, accelerate the exploration of western China, speed up offshore exploration.＂[第一段]     

China Increases Oil and Gas Imports as Global Glut Deepens

Energy supply security and energy demand security are mutually dependent and balanced,which requires coordination among nations rich in resources,importing nations,and oil companies.Substantial oil demand growth and geopolitical uncertainties have increased pressure on China to import greater volumes of oil from a wide range of sources.Currently,China＇s dependence on imported oil has been gradually growing to 57 percent at present from 32 percent at the beginning of the 21st century.     

High Oil Price Calls for More Motivated Actions in China

The oil price has been soaring since the early of this year, and lingered at above US$70 per barrel for a while lately. International oil prices have repeatedly hit record high, imposing unprecedented impact on the economic growth and citizens＇ life in China. In order to stabilize the domestic oil nlarket, ensure a safe oil supply, and reduce the impact of high oil price on China＇s economic growth, the Chinese government should take more active measures to address these issues as soon as possible.     

China＇s First Coal-to-Oil Plant Scheduled on Stream Next Year

China＇s biggest coal company, the Shenhua group, will start production at its first coal-to-liquid project at the end of next year, a scheme that will supply 1 million tons of oil products a year to North China. The project will be the country＇s first facility producing oil from coal and has great market potential in China, which relies on coal for about 70 percent of its energy needs and aims to cut the import of high-priced oil.     

Analysis of the Multinational Strategy of Oil Companies

With the continuous and rapid development of the national economy,China‘s oil consumption embarks on a stage of fast growth. The gap between oil supply and demand will get wider, which has seriously limited the development of China‘s economy and society.In 2004, China became the second largest oilconsumption country in the world,     

Review of China＇s Oil Market in the First Half of 2007

Major features of China＇s oil market in the first half of 2007 Oil demand and supply still increased rapidly in China in the first half2007. Growth from April to June was more rapid than that from January to March, as well as oil price was kept high.[第一段]     

Significance of Petroleum Equipment Industry and Its Development Orientation

With the continuous and fast growth of China's economy,the demand for oil and gas resources is growing rapidly.The high dependency on imported oil and gas has become an important factor that influences national economic safety.To access more oil and gas resources,the exploration and production of oil and gas is of strategic importance to realize the sustainable development of energy in China.Petroleum equipment dominates the exploration and production level of oil and gas resources.     

基于峰值预测模型的中国石油产量合理规划

基于石油产量峰值预测模型，在不进行石油产量合理规划的情况下，中国的石油产量峰值时间将在2017年前后出现，峰值产量约为18500万t；而石油消费高峰将在2034年前后出现，高达63300万t左右，届时全国的石油产量已进入递减阶段，对外依存度将高达73％左右，石油供需矛盾及石油安全问题将更加突出。分析认为，应该对国内石油产量进行合理规划：降低当前的石油产量，将石油峰值产量降到17000万t左右，使产量峰值时间推到2030年左右，从而使得石油的产量高峰和需求高峰基本吻合，可相应地减少石油进口，从而降低石油对外依存度，保障石油供应的安全。图3表5参19     

上半年石油工业经营情况及下半年走势预测

今年上半年我国石油工业基本保持平稳、健康的发展格局:油气产量和消费需求均持续增长,油气开采业大幅盈利,原油加工业仍然亏损,投资大幅度增长,原油进口依存度加大。下半年需要采取的应对措施是:进一步完善成品油价格形成机制;规范和引导上海石油交易所健康运行;加强天然气管理,作好需求预测;实施石油替代激励政策。预计下半年国际油价继续走高的可能性较大;我国全年石油表观消费可能会突破3亿吨,进口依存度继续在40%以上。     

北美非常规油气蓬勃发展十大动因及对区域油气供需的影响

为了研究北美非常规油气成功之路的经验,找出可以借鉴、仿效之处,通过分析其蓬勃发展的关键所在,总结出十大动因：丰富的非常规油气资源、有利的自然条件、先进的开发技术、完整的服务产业、强劲的消费需求、成熟的油气市场、充足的资本投资、完善的行业政策、谨慎的环保态度和共赢的利益分享,并与其他地区的相关指标做了分类对比。由于这些因素多属北美地区所特有,在其他地区很难全部实现,故其成功发展之路在其他地区不能照搬只可借鉴。通过分析还得到了其对区域油气供需的影响：①页岩气产量增加使得近年来美国对于进口加拿大天然气的需求降低,导致加拿大天然气产量下降,且由于供给力度加大,美国天然气的出口量与消费比例呈明显增加趋势;②逐渐增多的LNG出口终端有助于缓解当前“孤岛效应”,但短期内难以改变;③美国与加拿大致密油产量增加逐步降低美国石油对外依存度与对北美外依存度。     

陆上主要含油气盆地油气资源与勘探潜力

石油是国家政治、经济、军事安全的重要战略物质,也是国民经济发展的动力资源.石油的供需保障程度在相当大的程度上直接影响着国家经济的稳定和社会的安危.我国油气资源比较丰富,尽管陆上主要含油气盆地勘探程度较高,但剩余油气资源的总量不少.经过几十年的油气勘探,剩余油气资源的赋存条件变差,低品位资源所占比例增大,剩余资源的隐蔽性增强,勘探难度增大.因此,未来油气勘探必须依靠科技进步,并注意降低成本,才能实现油气勘探增储、增效.     

China''s First Coal-to-Oil Plant Scheduled on Stream Next Year

China's biggest coal company, the Shenhua group, will start production at its first coal-to-liquid project at the end of next year, a scheme that will supply 1 million tons of oil products a year to North China. The project will be the country's first facility producing oil from coal and has great market potential in China, which relies on coal for about 70 percent of its energy needs and aims to cut the import of high-priced oil.     

充分认识润滑油产品的技术性、复杂性和特殊性

通过对我国近年润滑油生产基本情况的分析，认为润滑油在生产规模、技术水平、品种、质量及经营等方面虽基本上能满足国民经济发展的需要，但也存在品种少、档次低、经营方式落后、供求关系失衡、假冒伪劣产品泛滥、外油冲击等问题，形势严峻。提出搞好润滑油生产经营的一系列措施     

抑制我国天然气对外依存度过快增长的对策与建议

天然气对外依存度是一个国家的净进口气量占该国国内天然气消费总量的百分数,其高低不仅反映了该国与国际天然气市场之间的融合度,同时也反映了对国外天然气资源的依赖程度和安全供应的保障程度。进入21世纪以来,天然气在我国能源消费结构中的战略地位日渐突出,国产天然气供不应求,国内天然气产量与市场需求量的增速差不断扩大,天然气对外依存度快速攀升,2018年已达到44%。鉴于2018年我国的石油对外依存度已超过70%,天然气对外依存度的不断攀升无疑会给我国的能源安全带来更为严峻的挑战。为了保障我国的能源安全,系统分析了中国天然气对外依存度的变化趋势及其对我国社会经济发展有可能带来的风险,从一次能源消费总量、天然气消费大国生产消费状况以及天然气进口大国的净进口量与全球天然气贸易总量之比等3个方面探讨了我国天然气合理的对外依存度,进而提出了抑制我国天然气对外依存度过快增长的对策与建议:①多气并举,提高国内天然气供应能力,夯实国内天然气"压舱石"地位;②发展可再生能源,加快形成有效替代,减轻天然气供应压力;③坚持底线思维,提高天然气利用效率,抑制不合理需求。     

国外天然气经济研究动态及建议

国外近期天然气经济研究的重点主要集中在天然气资源及其供应潜力、市场需求预测与展望、天然气工业数据统计与分析、天然气价格分析与预测、LNG的经济问题、市场改革与重组、天然气供应安全等方面。我国天然气经济研究除了继续关注国内天然气工业动态,研究天然气工业和天然气市场发展中的热点问题外,还应加强国内外天然气资源潜力和供需远景、市场管制和运行机制改革、进口天然气资源(包括LNG)的经济问题、天然气供应的安全性与稳定性、国外天然气价格变化与形成机制对我国天然气价格和市场需求的影响等方面的研究。     

国内环保轮胎橡胶油产品与市场现状

文章介绍了欧盟REACH法规中PAHs的限制及检测的相关情况,并全面分析了国内外芳烃油替代品的研究现状及典型产品的理化性质,综合比较了各典型产品的应用性能差异。同时,文章对国内环保轮胎橡胶油的需求与供应现状进行了分析并提出了国产环保轮胎橡胶油的推广所需解决的问题。     

2020年前中国多气源供应格局展望

中国天然气市场已经进入快速发展阶段,多气源供应格局正在形成。据现有的研究成果预测,到2015年,规划的包括常规天然气、煤层气、煤制气和页岩气的国产气和进口管道气、LNG最高供应量可达3 586×108 m3,比目前预测的届时天然气需求量超出900×108 m3以上。最低情景下,到2015年中国天然气供应量也可达3 185×108 m3,比目前预测的届时天然气需求量超出近600×108 m3。综合分析后得出结论:2015年前,我国多气源供气格局将基本形成,彻底结束目前天然气供应紧张的局面,理论上推测天然气供给量将全面超过需求量;基于9×104 km的长输管道和130×108 m3的储气库工作气量,全国天然气供气灵活性、可靠性将大为提高;到2020年,我国多气源供气格局将进一步深化,基础设施将更加完备。因此,在未来气源多样、供应相对充足的前景下,如何优化供应格局显得更为重要。最后建议:①协调处理好国内资源和引进资源的关系;②国家应该统筹协调各沿海地方、各大石油企业引进LNG的规划;③尽快解决国、内外两种天然气的价差问题。