Hydrogen utilization in various transportation modes with emissions comparisons for Ontario, Canada

The paper compares the atmospheric emissions of different hydrogen production scenarios for various transportation modes in a case study for Ontario, Canada. Hydrogen demand scenarios are based on historical data of the various transportation modes. Predicting the CO₂ emissions for a market with hydrogen vehicles against a purely fossil fuel market outlines the benefits of utilizing hydrogen. For road vehicles less than 4,500 kg in weight, emissions from a thermochemical production fraction of 20% produced a 9.8% decrease in CO₂ emissions (or over 3,000 kilotonnes), compared to a 100% fossil fuel market. When these studies are applied to other transportation modes such as rail, air and marine, similar trends are observed. The largest benefits occur from automobiles and rail, where increasing carbon emission trends were reversed due to the increasing hydrogen propulsion base. Further decreases in carbon dioxide emissions could be realized by lower emitting production sources such as nuclear thermochemical production and electrolysis from wind, solar, and hydro.     

Significance of CO2-free hydrogen globally and for Japan using a long-term global energy system analysis

In this paper, the significance of CO₂-free hydrogen is discussed using a long-term global energy system. The energy demand–supply system including CO₂-free hydrogen was assumed, though there are still large uncertainties as to whether a global CO₂-free hydrogen energy system will be deployed. System analysis was conducted using the global and long-term intertemporal optimization energy model GRAPE under severe CO₂ emission constraints. Applied global CO₂ constraints for 2050 were a 50% reduction from 1990 levels. CO₂ constraints accounting for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in each region were also considered. A variety of energy resources and technologies were considered in this model. Hydrogen can be produced from low-grade coal or natural gas with CO₂ capture and electricity from renewable energy. The hydrogen CIF (cost, insurance, and freight) price for Japan was about 3.2 cents/MJ in 2030. Hydrogen demand technologies considered in this paper are hydrogen-fired power plants, direct combustion, combined heat and power (fuel cells, gas engines, and gas turbines), fuel cell vehicles, and hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles. The majority of CO₂-free hydrogen was deployed in the transportation sector. CO₂-free hydrogen was utilized in the power sector, where deployment of other zero emission technology has some constraints. From an economic viewpoint, CO₂-free hydrogen can reduce the global energy system cost. From the viewpoint of a localized region, such as Japan, deployment of CO₂-free hydrogen can improve energy security and environmental indicators.     

Cost evaluation of two potential nuclear power plants for hydrogen production

Hydrogen is recognized as one of the most promising alternative fuels to meet the energy demand for the future by providing a carbon-free solution. In regards to hydrogen production, there has been increasing interest to develop, innovate and commercialize more efficient, effective and economic methods, systems and applications. Nuclear based hydrogen production options through electrolysis and thermochemical cycles appear to be potentially attractive and sustainable for the expanding hydrogen sector. In the current study, two potential nuclear power plants, which are planned to be built in Akkuyu and Sinop in Turkey, are evaluated for hydrogen production scenarios and cost aspects. These two plants will employ the pressurized water reactors with the electricity production capacities of 4800 MW (consisting of 4 units of 1200 MW) for Akkuyu nuclear power plant and 4480 MW (consisting of 4 units of 1120 MW) for Sinop nuclear power plant. Each of these plants are expected to cost about 20 billion US dollars. In the present study, these two plants are considered for hydrogen production and their cost evaluations by employing the special software entitled “Hydrogen Economic Evaluation Program (HEEP)” developed by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which includes numerous options for hydrogen generation, storage and transportation. The costs of capital, fuel, electricity, decommissioning and consumables are calculated and evaluated in detail for hydrogen generation, storage and transportation in Turkey. The results show that the amount of hydrogen cost varies from 3.18 $/kg H₂ to 6.17 $/kg H₂.     

Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

This paper develops scenarios whereby CO₂ emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures.     

Techno-enviro-economic analyses of hydrogen supply chains with an ASEAN case study

Hydrogen is a promising low carbon fuel option with geographically distributed production and consumption. Hence, its regional and global hydrogen supply chains (HSCs) are vital for the potential future energy markets. We present a holistic study of various options for transporting (not producing) hydrogen from both techno-economic and environmental perspectives. The infrastructure and energy requirements of four options for transporting hydrogen between export and import terminals, namely methyl cyclohexane, liquid hydrogen, compressed hydrogen, and liquid ammonia, are analyzed in detail. These are compared for HSC energy penalty, carbon avoidance and landed cost of hydrogen under different scenarios. A case study is also presented to capture the perspectives of an importer. The preferred transport mode depends on export location and end use. For Singapore's power sector, compressed hydrogen from the neighbors via pipelines is most favorable with a carbon avoidance of 54–59% at 0.3 $/kg CO₂ avoided.     

Hydrogen energy deployment in decarbonizing transportation sector using multi-supply-demand integrated scenario analysis with nonlinear programming — A Shanxi case study

Peaking CO₂ emissions and reaching carbon neutrality create a major role for hydrogen in the transportation field where decarbonization is difficult. Shanxi, as a microcosm of China in the systematic transformation of energy end-use consumption, is selected to investigate the hydrogen energy development forecast for decarbonization in the transportation sector. Multi-supply-demand integrated scenario analysis with nonlinear programming (NLP) model is established to analyze hydrogen energy deployment in varied periods and regions under minimum environmental, energy and economic objectives, to obtain CO₂ emission reduction potential. Results reveal that green hydrogen contributes most to low-carbon hydrogen development strategies. In high-hydrogen demand scenarios, carbon emission reduction potential is significantly higher under environmental objectives, estimated at 297.68 × 10⁴–848.12 × 10⁴ tons (2025–2035). The work provides a strategy to forecast hydrogen energy deployment for transportation decarbonization, being of vital significant guide for planning of hydrogen energy transportation in other regions.     

Analysis of policies to reduce oil consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from the US transportation sector

Even as the US debates an economy-wide CO₂ cap-and-trade policy the transportation sector remains a significant oil security and climate change concern. Transportation alone consumes the majority of the US’s imported oil and produces a third of total US Greenhouse-Gas (GHG) emissions. This study examines different sector-specific policy scenarios for reducing GHG emissions and oil consumption in the US transportation sector under economy-wide CO₂ prices. The 2009 version of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a general equilibrium model of US energy markets, enables quantitative estimates of the impact of economy-wide CO₂ prices and various transportation-specific policy options. We analyze fuel taxes, continued increases in fuel economy standards, and purchase tax credits for new vehicle purchases, as well as the impacts of combining these policies. All policy scenarios modeled fail to meet the Obama administration’s goal of reducing GHG emissions 14% below 2005 levels by 2020. Purchase tax credits are expensive and ineffective at reducing emissions, while the largest reductions in GHG emissions result from increasing the cost of driving, thereby damping growth in vehicle miles traveled.     

Flexible sector coupling with hydrogen: A climate-friendly fuel supply for road transport

The substantial expansion of renewable energy sources is creating the foundation to successfully transform the German energy sector (the so-called ‘Energiewende’). A by-product of this development is the corresponding capacity demand for the transportation, distribution and storage of energy. Hydrogen produced by electrolysis offers a promising solution to these challenges, although the willingness to invest in hydrogen technologies requires the identification of competitive and climate-friendly pathways in the long run. Therefore, this paper employs a pathway analysis to investigate the use of renewable hydrogen in the German passenger car transportation sector in terms of varying market penetration scenarios for fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEVs). The investigation focuses on how an H₂ infrastructure can be designed on a national scale with various supply chain networks to establish robust pathways and important technologies, which has not yet been done. Therefore, the study includes all related aspects, from hydrogen production to fueling stations, for a given FCEV market penetration scenario, as well as the CO₂ reduction potential that can be achieved for the transport sector. A total of four scenarios are considered, estimating an FCEV market share of 1–75% by the year 2050. This corresponds to an annual production of 0.02–2.88 million tons of hydrogen. The findings show that the most cost-efficient H₂ supply (well-to-tank: 6.7–7.5 €/kg_H2) can be achieved in high demand scenarios (FCEV market shares of 30% and 75%) through a combination of cavern storage and pipeline transport. For low-demand scenarios, however, technology pathways involving LH₂ and LOHC truck transport represent the most cost-efficient options (well-to-tank: 8.2–11.4 €/kg_H2).     

Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.     

Design of a future hydrogen supply chain: A multi period model for Turkey

There is no doubt that energy will have one of highest priorities in agendas of strategic plans of countries. Since fossil fuels are running out and carbon emissions are more important than ever, researchers seek alternative clean and efficient energy sources. One of the best alternatives is hydrogen. The systems in which hydrogen flows from its production to end users are called hydrogen supply chains (HSC). Since hydrogen is not in active use, its HSC infrastructure is not complete and should be planned very carefully. We study the design of HSC of Turkey to meet the hydrogen demand of the period between 2021 and 2050. Our aim is to minimize total cost of the HSC while meeting the demand of the transportation sector. We address the problem by using a mixed integer programming (MIP) model and derive several insights for the future HSC. The results show that while decentralization (being able to fulfill the demand from local production facilities) is 12% in the first period, this rate raises up to 48% by the end of the planning horizon. Analysis also reveal that almost all grids do not produce and import hydrogen simultaneously, i.e., they either produce or import hydrogen. The results are robust in the sense that solutions of different optimality gaps have minor differences in terms of established facilities.     

The potential role of hydrogen as a sustainable transportation fuel to combat global warming

Hydrogen is recognized as a key source of the sustainable energy solutions. The transportation sector is known as one of the largest fuel consumers of the global energy market. Hydrogen can become a promising fuel for sustainable transportation by providing clean, reliable, safe, convenient, customer friendly, and affordable energy. In this study, the possibility of hydrogen as the major fuel for transportation systems is investigated comprehensively based on the recent data published in the literature. Due to its several characteristic advantages, such as energy density, abundance, ease of transportation, a wide variety of production methods from clean and renewable fuels with zero or minimal emissions; hydrogen appears to be a great chemical fuel which can potentially replace fossil fuel use in internal combustion engines. In order to take advantage of hydrogen as an internal combustion engine fuel, existing engines should be redesigned to avoid abnormal combustion. Hydrogen use in internal combustion engines could enhance system efficiencies, offer higher power outputs per vehicle, and emit lower amounts of greenhouse gases. Even though hydrogen-powered fuel cells have lower emissions than internal combustion engines, they require additional space and weight and they are generally more expensive. Therefore, the scope of this study is hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engines. It is also highlighted that in order to become a truly sustainable and clean fuel, hydrogen should be produced from renewable energy and material resources with zero or minimal emissions at high efficiencies. In addition, in this study, conventional, hybrid, electric, biofuel, fuel cell, and hydrogen fueled ICE vehicles are comparatively assessed based on their CO₂ and SO₂ emissions, social cost of carbon, energy and exergy efficiencies, fuel consumption, fuel price, and driving range. The results show that when all of these criteria are taken into account, fuel cell vehicles have the highest average performance ranking (4.97/10), followed by hydrogen fueled ICEs (4.81/10) and biofuel vehicles (4.71/10). On the other hand, conventional vehicles have the lowest average performance ranking (1.21/10), followed by electric vehicles (4.24/10) and hybrid vehicles (4.53/10).     

Decarbonizing Singapore via local production of H2 from natural gas

Interest in low emissions hydrogen as an energy vector to assist in deep decarbonization goals has gained momentum recently. In this paper, we explore local hydrogen production from natural gas with CO₂ capture and sequestration (known as “blue” H₂) to support Singapore's intended inclusion of low-carbon intensity H₂ fuel as a way to achieve significant CO₂ emission reduction through 2050. A superstructure-based model is used to minimize the total cost or emissions of the entire supply chain, from H₂ production to consumption in the power, industry, domestic, marine, and road transport sectors. H₂ demand for each sector is projected for three H₂ penetration scenarios (low, medium, and high). The results are analyzed for the levelized cost of H₂, reduction in carbon emissions, and cost of carbon avoidance. Costs associated with direct and indirect CO₂ emissions, as well as H₂ and CO₂ infrastructure costs, are included in total costs. A comparison of blue H₂ and direct natural gas utilization with post-combustion CO₂ capture and sequestration is also presented. We find that decarbonizing Singapore via local production of blue H₂ will involve a relatively high carbon avoidance cost.     

Transitioning electricity systems: The environmental benefits and economic cost of repurposing surplus electricity in non-conventional end users

A power grid with a lower global warming impact has the potential to extend its benefits to energy systems that conventionally do not utilize electricity as their primary energy source. This study presents the case of Ontario where the role of complementing policies in transitioning electricity systems is assessed. The policy cost to incentivize surplus low emission electricity via an established mechanism for the transportation sector has been estimated (Electric and Hydrogen Vehicle Incentive Program). It is estimated that the 9056 (4760 battery and 4296 plug-in hybrid) electric vehicles that qualified for incentives from the provincial government at the end of 2016 vehicles cost $732.5-$883.9 to reduce a tonne of CO_2,e emissions over an eight year lifetime. This is then compared with the potential cost incurred by two power to gas energy hubs that utilize clean surplus electricity from the province to offset emissions within the natural gas sector. The use of hydrogen-enriched natural gas and synthetic natural gas (SNG) offsets emissions at $87.8 and $228.7 per tonne of CO_2,e in the natural gas sector. This analysis highlights the potential future costs for incentivizing new clean technologies such as electric vehicles and power to gas energy hubs in jurisdictions with a transitioning electricity system.     

The potential role of hydrogen energy in India and Western Europe

We used the TIMER energy model to explore the potential role of hydrogen in the energy systems of India and Western Europe, looking at the impacts on its main incentives: climate policy, energy security and urban air pollution. We found that hydrogen will not play a major role in both regions without considerable cost reductions, mainly in fuel cell technology. Also, energy taxation policy is essential for hydrogen penetration and India's lower energy taxes limit India's capacity to favour hydrogen. Once available to the (European) energy system, hydrogen can decrease the cost of CO₂ emission reduction by increasing the potential for carbon capture technology. However, climate policy alone is insufficient to speed up the transition. Hydrogen diversifies energy imports; especially for Europe it decreases oil imports, while increasing imports of coal and natural gas. For India, it provides an opportunity to decrease oil imports and use indigenous coal resources in the transport sector. Hydrogen improves urban air quality by shifting emissions from urban transport to hydrogen production facilities. However, for total net emissions we found a sensitive trade-off between lower emissions at end-use (in transport) and higher emissions from hydrogen production, depending on local policy for hydrogen production facilities.     

Multi-objective optimization model for sustainable Indonesian electricity system: Analysis of economic,environment, and adequacy of energy sources

This paper presents a multi-objective optimization model for a long-term generation mix in Indonesia. The objective of this work is to assess the economic, environment, and adequacy of local energy sources. The model includes two competing objective functions to seek the lowest cost of generation and the lowest CO₂ emissions while considering technology diffusion. The scenarios include the use of fossil reserves with or without the constraints of the reserve to production ratio and exports. The results indicate that Indonesia should develop all renewable energy and requires imported coal and natural gas. If all fossil resources were upgraded to reserves, electricity demand in 2050 could be met by domestic energy sources. The maximum share of renewable energy that can be achieved in 2050 is 33% with and 80% without technology diffusion. The least cost optimization produces lower generation costs than the least CO₂ emissions, as well as the combined scenario. Total CO₂ emissions in 2050 are five to six times as large as current emissions. The least CO₂ emissions scenario can reduce almost half of the CO₂ emissions of the least cost scenario by 2050. The proposed multi-objective optimization model leads some optimal solutions for a more sustainable electricity system.     

Investigation on the decarbonization of shipping: An approach to hydrogen and ammonia

Global warming and greenhouse gas emissions are today's major challenges for sustainable industrial developments, and shipping is an important key element of the industrial chain. However, maritime transportation is responsible for 3.1% of total CO₂ emissions worldwide, and International Maritime Organization estimates that it will continue to increase if no measure is taken. In this perspective, alternative fuels are promising solutions to reach the zero-carbon shipping aim. This paper investigates zero-carbon fuels and their power generation solutions to eliminate ship-sourced CO₂ emissions. Hydrogen and ammonia are analyzed to use in a fuel cell according to five different criteria: safety, cost, storage, sustainability, and environmental impact. Criteria weightings are found according to expert points by using the analytic hierarchy process. While the safety and environmental impacts have a major effect on the results, sustainability, storage, and cost are lined up, respectively. A final comparison table is formed by changing weightings for each criterion regarding maritime industry conditions. Sensitivity analysis of the results is carried out with different scenarios to show the reliability of the handled analysis. As a result, ammonia is marginally showed better performance against hydrogen for shipping with applied criteria in this work. This study highlights that shipping has strong options such as ammonia and hydrogen on the road of decarbonization and ammonia can play an important role in the transition to zero-carbon shipping.     

Using LMDI method to analyze transport sector CO2 emissions in China

China has been the second CO₂ emitter in the world, while the transportation sector accounts for a major share of CO₂ emissions. Analysis of transportation sector CO₂ emissions is help to decrease CO₂ emissions. Thus the purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential factors influencing the change of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China. First, the transport sector CO₂ emissions over the period 1985–2009 is calculated based on the presented method. Then the presented LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) method is used to find the nature of the factors those influence the changes in transport sector CO₂ emissions. We find that: (1) Transport sector CO₂ emissions has increased from 79.67 Mt in 1985 to 887.34 Mt in 2009, following an annual growth rate of 10.56%. Highways transport is the biggest CO₂ emitter. (2) The per capita economic activity effect and transportation modal shifting effect are found to be primarily responsible for driving transport sector CO₂ emissions growth over the study period. (3) The transportation intensity effect and transportation services share effect are found to be the main drivers of the reduction of CO₂ emissions in China. However, the emission coefficient effect plays a very minor role over the study period.     

Design of a future hydrogen supply chain: A multi-objective model for Turkey

One of the important alternatives to conventional fossil fuel vehicles in the transportation sector is hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV) technology. One of the most significant obstacles to the widespread use of these vehicles is the hydrogen supply chain network (HSC) infrastructure. In the design of this network, the harm caused by the network to the environment and the security risks that may arise are as important as the associated cost of building it. In this study, an HSC design that will minimize cost, carbon emission and security risk for Turkey is proposed. The problem is modeled using a mixed integer linear programming (MILP). Five different optimization cases are studied when the penetration rate of HFCV is 25%. In the first three cases, the objectives are independently optimized. The multi-objective optimization is addressed in Case 4 and Case 5. Case 4 is solved with epsilon constraint method by employing the results of the first three cases. The most balanced solution found is 88%, 10% and 2% away from the best cost, carbon emission and risk values, respectively. It is observed that the proposed solution has a decentralized network structure where steam methane reforming (SMR) and electrolysis (ELE) production plants are established. In Case 5, the weighted sum method (another multi-objective optimization method) is used and those which gave the closest results to that of the epsilon constraint method are chosen as the associated weights of three objectives. Using these weights, 10 different demand scenarios are studied. It is observed that the HSC has a decentralized structure under almost all demand scenarios.     

Exploring the potential of hydrogen in decarbonizing China's light-duty vehicle market

The Chinese government has pledged to achieve overall carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, the transportation sector contributes to about 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Hence, China has created a well-defined energy vehicle development strategy to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector, further expanding into hydrogen vehicle technologies. In this study, the Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) investigates the potential of hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (H₂-ICEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) as a reliable pathway towards the government's aspiration of carbon neutrality in the transportation sector. According to TEAM, by adopting FCEVs and H₂-ICEVs in the vehicle market, hydrogen demand could reach 25% of the total light-duty transportation energy demand in 2050. Consequently, this will lead to an annual reduction of more than 35 million tons GHG compared to only counting on the electrification pathway in the decarbonization task. Besides, FCEVs would take longer to penetrate the light-duty vehicle market compared to H₂-ICEVs, as the current fuel cell technology still requires much improvement to attain a competitive vehicle cost of production.