Exploring drivers of energy demand in Cyprus – Scenarios and policy options

This paper describes a new set of energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040, which have been developed in support of the renewable energy roadmap that was prepared for national authorities by the International Renewable Energy Agency. The analysis takes into account national end-use data from the residential and tertiary sector that had not been exploited up to now. Four final energy demand scenarios with diverging assumptions were defined in this study, offering a wide range of possible outcomes up to 2040; in addition, four alternative scenarios were applied for sensitivity analysis. Two of these scenarios can be regarded as those continuing the trends of the recent past in Cyprus (prior to the economic and financial downturn of years 2011–2014). However, a more rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures in buildings and transport, as defined in the fourth scenario of this study, is also realistic; despite its potential costs, it might allow Cyprus both to decrease its carbon emissions in line with the long-term EU decarbonisation targets, and to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, thereby promoting energy efficiency as an important climate change adaptation measure.     

Universalization of access to modern energy services in Tibetan rural households—Renewable energy's exploitation,utilization, and policy analysis

There are still more than 30% of the Tibetan administrative villages without power, and about 40% farmers there are suffering from a serious shortage of firewood. Tibet is abundant in the deposits of hydropower, geothermal, and solar energy. The practical ways to solve the universal service of Tibetan rural energy are researched in the paper. We find that there are two main objectives of the universal access to energy in Tibetan rural areas. One is to meet the demand of electricity consumption and daily energy consumption of the farmers and herdsmen without power, initially solve energy poverty, realize the equitable access to energy, and ensure the early access to modern civilization. The other is to guarantee the provision of energy required in Tibet's rural economic development and urbanization. Their accomplishment depends on the responsibilities’ definition and implementation in the universal service of energy by the central and local governments, and on the establishment of a universal service mechanism of energy. The conflict between the need of energy development in the agricultural and pastoral areas of Tibet and its insufficient financial resources cannot be solved without the support and assistance from the central government and other developed provinces in China.     

The savings of energy saving: interactions between energy supply and demand-side options—quantification for Portugal

Reducing demand by increasing end-use energy efficiency on the demand side of energy systems may also have advantages in reducing fossil dependency and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the supply side. This paper addresses interactions between energy supply- and demand-side policies, by estimating the impact of measures addressing end-use energy efficiency and small-scale renewables uses in terms of (1) avoided large-scale electricity generation capacity, (2) final energy consumption, (3) share of renewables in final energy and (4) reduction of GHG emissions. The Portuguese energy system is used as a case study. The TIMES_PT bottom-up model was used to generate four scenarios covering the period up to 2020, corresponding to different levels of efficiency of equipment in buildings, transport and industry. In the current policy scenario, the deployment of end-use equipment follows the 2000–2005 trends and the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan targets. In the efficient scenarios, all types of equipment can be replaced by more efficient ones. Results show that aggressive demand-side options for the industry and buildings sector and the small-scale use of renewables can remove the need for the increase in large-scale renewable electricity capacity by 4.7 GW currently discussed by policy makers. Although these measures reduce total final energy by only 0–2 %, this represents reductions of 11–14 % in the commercial sector, with savings in total energy system costs of approximately 3,000 million euros₂₀₀₀—roughly equivalent to 2 % of the 2010 Portuguese GDP. The cost-effectiveness of policy measures should guide choices between supply shifts and demand reduction. Such balanced policy development can lead to substantial cost reductions in climate and energy policy.     

Driving forces for and barriers to providing energy services—a study of local and regional energy companies in Sweden

Improving energy efficiency is a cornerstone in climate change mitigation, and energy services are portrayed as a promising market-based approach to achieve this. This paper examines the barriers to, and driving forces needed for, the implementation of energy services from the perspective of Swedish local and regional energy companies. This includes an analysis of the resources needed in three phases of energy service implementation, i.e., development, sales, and deployment. The results indicate a supply-side interest in providing energy services, with the major challenges being related to (a) intra-organizational issues such as a lack of strategic direction and intent and (b) a perceived lack of knowledge, interest, and trust on the part of potential energy service customers. The paper concludes with managerial and policy implications on how an increased focus and impact of energy service can be achieved among local and regional companies.     

Is cluster policy useful for the energy sector? Assessing self-declared hydrogen clusters in the Netherlands

Research on science-based industries has shown that it is important for organisations to be active in interorganisational networks. Cluster policy has been developed as a means to stimulate the development of these networks and thereby the success rate of these industries. Cluster policy is however not a common policy instrument in the energy sector. In this paper, we focus on three self-declared clusters active in hydrogen-related R&D in the Netherlands and address several characteristics of these clusters. We conclude that cluster policy is a useful addition to existing energy R&D policies but that monitoring whether self-declared clusters actually function as clusters and what their contribution is to the overall system is pivotal in reaping the benefits of cluster policy.     

Systemic risk in the energy sector—Is there need for financial regulation?

The credit crisis points at serious systemic risks in Over The Counter derivative trading. This has resulted in new financial regulation, covering both the financial sector and non-financial sectors. The actual extent to which non-financial companies trading on OTC markets contribute to systemic risk has hardly been the subject of research. This paper investigates the need for financial regulation in the energy sector, which shows a high use of OTC derivatives, by modeling systemic risk measured by the expected fraction of additional failing firms (EAF). Contagion risk within the energy sector and from the energy sector towards the banking sector is compared with that in other non-financial sectors. This paper adds to existing systemic risk literature by specifically looking at financial interdependence between a non-financial sector showing a high usage of OTC commodity derivatives and the banking sector, while contributing to the discussion on energy sector regulation with technical systemic risk analysis. Results indicate that contagion risk from the energy towards the banking sector is not relatively high compared to other non-financial sectors. Our results provide a first indication to question the need for generalized regulation of OTC derivative transactions, as recently introduced by the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR).     

The baseline in bottom-up energy efficiency and saving calculations – A concept for its formalisation and a discussion of relevant options

One of the central variables in bottom-up energy efficiency and saving calculations is the energy consumption baseline. In the evaluation of energy efficiency measures, developing this baseline is a challenging task, which may involve serious problems, especially if the energy service of the analysed subject has changed while the energy efficiency measure was being implemented. In this paper we present a formalised concept of the process of developing the baseline that is flexible enough to deal with various difficulties, such as changes in the levels of the energy services involved. We also discuss the most relevant options for deriving the necessary variables.     

Sure,but who has the energy? The importance of location for knowledge transfer in the energy sector

Using over 350,000 U.S. patent citations, we test whether knowledge transfers in the energy sector are sensitive to distance, and whether that sensitivity has changed over time. Controlling for self-citation by inventor, assignee and examiner, multivariate regression analysis shows that physical distance is becoming less important for spillovers with time, but differs by energy subsector.     

The role of coal in energy policy and sustainable development of Turkey: Is it compatible to the EU energy policy?

This paper aims to assess the current and future role of coal in energy strategy of Turkey, and evaluates the compatibility of policies to the EU energy policy and strategy. Coal is regarded as the most important indigenous energy source in Turkey together with hydropower to strengthen the supply security of the country. Turkish government set targets to fully utilize coal reserves of the country in next decades. However, the country is also in the process of becoming an EU Member State, hence, it is expected that the energy policies have to comply with the EU. Moreover, Turkey ratified Kyoto Protocol in 2009, thus the country should limit CO₂ emission together with other greenhouse gases. The probable obstacles that Turkey may face due to the utilization of coal were determined as CO₂ emissions, lack of technology and application in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and health and safety issues. It is concluded that coal is a very important domestic energy source for Turkey but new policies have to be developed and adopted immediately, and more realistic targets for the country should be set accordingly.     

UK energy policy ambition and UK energy modelling—fit for purpose?

Aiming to lead amongst other G20 countries, the UK government has classified the twin energy policy priorities of decarbonisation and security of supply as a “centennial challenge”. This viewpoint discusses the UK's capacity for energy modelling and scenario building as a critical underpinning of iterative decision making to meet these policy ambitions. From a nadir, over the last decade UK modelling expertise has been steadily built up. However extreme challenges remain in the level and consistency of funding of core model teams — critical to ensure a full scope of energy model types and hence insights, and in developing new state-of-the-art models to address evolving uncertainties. Meeting this challenge will facilitate a broad scope of types and geographical scale of UK's analytical tools to responsively deliver the evidence base for a range of public and private sector decision makers, and ensure that the UK contributes to global efforts to advance the field of energy-economic modelling.     

The policy instruments of European front-runners: effective for saving energy in existing dwellings?

Existing dwellings receive frequent attention in climate change policy given the wealth of cost-effective, but un-exploited, energy-saving potential within their walls. Policy attention also recognises the need for instruments that can navigate around barriers and maximise opportunities to achieve deep carbon reductions. However, there is a lack of evidence and knowledge about the instruments that can boast of success. In response to this knowledge gap, the instruments that form the main policy response to reduce energy consumed for space and water heating in existing dwellings in several front-runner European countries are assessed. Aims are to include, and to go beyond, an understanding of effectiveness based on reported reductions in CO₂ emissions and/or monetary savings on energy bills. Effectiveness is also judged on the basis of how instruments reflect policy instrument and energy policy concepts drawn from literature. Results show that the instruments that define action of front-runners differ significantly. Front-runners fail to reconcile all the identified concepts in their main instruments but some feature strongly. In this regard, selected countries established their main instruments over two decades ago, reflecting the concept of long-term instrument development and support. However, few front-runners adequately monitor and evaluate instruments to illuminate cause and effect. Front-runners struggle to diversify their core instrument approaches to capture ‘hard to reach households’ such as the private rental sector and lower-income households. The divergence in the instruments that form the main policy response of front-runners allows for the characteristics of a range of instruments to be analysed including regulations, information tools, taxes and incentives.     

Hydropower–water and renewable energy in Turkey: Sources and policy

Turkey's energy consumption has been growing much faster than its production. It forces Turkey to make a rapid action to supply energy demand. From the viewpoint of primary energy sources (petroleum and natural gas), Turkey is not a rich country, but it has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity. Hydropower is the most important kind of renewable, sustainable energy and a proven technology for electricity generation. The aim of this paper is to discuss sources and policy of hydropower, water and renewable energy in Turkey and compares the hydropower application with Europe.     

Economic evaluation of hybrid renewable energy systems for rural electrification in Iran—A case study

The Binalood region in Iran enjoys an average wind speed of 6.82 m/s at 40 m elevation and an average daily solar radiation of 4.79 kWh/m²/day. Within this perspective, a remote rural village in Binalood region, called Sheikh Abolhassan, can readily be expected to have more than enough potential for its load demand to be supplied with a stand-alone hybrid renewable energy system. Yet the local state-run electrical service provider extended the utility grid to the village in 2006 to boost the already present diesel generator. This study aims, firstly, to explore how economical it would have been to keep supplying the electricity of the village by the diesel generator and add renewable energy generators to increase the renewable fraction of the system. On a second stage, we tried to investigate how renewable energy sources (RESs) can still be added to the current utility grid power supply in Sheikh Abolhassan to achieve a more economical and environmentally friendly system. The software HOMER is used in this study to evaluate the feasibility of various hybrid diesel-RES and grid-RES energy systems. Findings indicated that the addition of renewable power generators to the system both before and after the grid extension could and still can result in a more economical power system, which is obviously cleaner and more climate-benign.     

Restructuring energy systems for sustainability? Energy transition policy in the Netherlands

Increasingly, researchers and policy makers are confronting the challenge of restructuring energy systems into more sustainable forms. A ‘transition management’ model, and its adoption in the Netherlands, is attracting attention. Starting from the socio-technical multi-level theory that informs ‘transition management’, we analyse the ‘energy transition’ project carried out by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. Despite considerable achievements, their approach risks capture by the incumbent energy regime, thereby undermining original policy ambitions for structural innovation of the energy system. This experience presents generic dilemmas for transitions approaches.     

Offshore wind energy policy for India—Key factors to be considered

Indian Economy is growing at a healthy pace during the last few years. To sustain this growth, power sector needs to build additional generation capacity. However, continued dependence on fossil fuels to power the growth of electricity generation capacity, is hardly sustainable. Renewable Energy source forms a miniscule portion (25 GW,∼12%) of India's overall power generation today (202 GW). The share of wind energy (17 GW) is 67% of the total renewable energy basket. But the contribution from offshore wind farms is non-existent, as all the wind energy generated in India is only through onshore wind farms. India needs a policy framework to encourage the development of offshore wind farms. Several European countries have effective offshore wind energy policies that have helped them to accelerate the growth of their offshore wind energy sector. This paper does an exhaustive literature survey, to identify 21 building blocks of a successful offshore wind energy policy initiative adopted by select European countries, which have been classified under 5 broad categories—Government support, Fiscal and quota based incentives, Availability of local expertise, Capital for investments and Building an enabling ecosystem, which can be leveraged by India to articulate its own offshore wind energy policy.     

The European renewable energy target for 2030 – An impact assessment of the electricity sector

The European Union set binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) and the share of renewable energy (RE) in final energy consumption by 2020. The European Council agreed to continue with this strategy through to 2030 by setting a RE target of 27% in addition to a GHG reduction target of 40%. We provide a detailed sectoral impact assessment by analyzing the implications for the electricity sector in terms of economic costs and the regional distribution of investments and shares of electricity generated from renewable energy sources (RES-E). According to the Impact Analysis by the European Commission the 27% RE target corresponds to a RES-E share of 49%. Our model-based sensitivity analysis on underlying technological and institutional assumptions shows that the cost-effective RES-E share varies between 43% and 56%. Secondly, we quantify the economic costs of these variants and those which would be incurred with higher shares. The long-term additional costs for higher RES-E shares would be less than 1% of total system costs. The third aspect relates to the regional distribution of EU-wide efforts for upscaling renewables. We point out that delivering high RES-E shares in a cost-effective manner involves considerably different efforts by the Member States.     

Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model — The case of Taiwan

This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO₂ emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly.     

Energy security and climate change concerns: Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?

Why is it so difficult to change the energy policy status quo away from dependence on fossil fuels when the need to become less dependent on imported oil seems to be generally accepted by US politicians? In recent energy debates in the House and Senate, references to climate change and energy security were frequently used as a rationale for the need for energy policy change. But policymakers were not in agreement about what policy programs would be the best alternative or what goals the programs were to achieve in terms of addressing energy security or climate change, or both at the same time. The paper explores whether putting energy security and climate change on the decision making agenda simultaneously helped craft a political compromise in the 110th Congress—the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and points out how the political institutions of the US structured interaction and affected policy outcome, and ultimately the chance of changing the energy policy status quo.